Most Accurate Admissions Predictor?

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stem0192837

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Most Accurate Admissions Predictor?

Post by stem0192837 » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:05 pm

I've been using myLSN and jscalc.io (the second one, I just found out about minutes ago though. The numbers here are based on myLSN I think). Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but these numbers look higher than what I had expected. For example, when I just use 4.0 GPA as a base, 165 is 3% at HLS and 166 is 6%. But 167 is 11%? It's like, double the number. And 168 is 19%? While 169 is 30%, and 170, 43%? This is excluding URM.

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cavalier1138

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Re: Most Accurate Admissions Predictor?

Post by cavalier1138 » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:37 am

You need to use GPA ranges with MyLSN to get anything resembling an accurate sample. There aren't enough data points for it to give accurate numbers for an exact GPA. So for a 4.0, search 3.9-4.0 and the relevant LSAT score. If I do that with your searches, I only start to see Harvard admits at 167.

And even ignoring that, you need to take the raw numbers into account. Yes, your search might show a 10% acceptance rate, but if they only have 10 data points, that means a single person reported an acceptance. MyLSN is an imperfect tool because it relies on self-reporting; if you put in weird numbers, you're likely to only see outlier results.

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RunnerRunner

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Re: Most Accurate Admissions Predictor?

Post by RunnerRunner » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:43 am

Some of those percentages might not be accurate, but I do not think the large changes between acceptance percentages with each successive one-point jump in LSAT score is surprising. I.e., I would not be surprised at all if twice as many 167s as 166s get into Harvard. Especially in the high-160s/low-170s range, one or two point differences on the LSAT have a significant impact on applicants' acceptance cycles.

As for finding an admissions predictor, I think just looking at the good old fashioned LSAT and GPA percentiles is best. I don't think any predictor can give you a truly accurate percentage-chance of admission. If you're above a school's median LSAT and GPA, you're in great shape. If you're above a school's LSAT 75th, and above it's GPA 25th, you're also in pretty great shape. If you're below a school's LSAT median, things are kind of dicey, even if you have a high GPA for the school (high LSATs are more rare than high GPAs). And so on and so forth.

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cavalier1138

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Re: Most Accurate Admissions Predictor?

Post by cavalier1138 » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:00 am

RunnerRunner wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:43 am
I do not think the large changes between acceptance percentages with each successive one-point jump in LSAT score is surprising.
Oh, yeah. If that was your question, OP, then yes, every point on the LSAT makes a difference once you break into the mid-to-high 160s and 170s.

The Lsat Airbender

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Re: Most Accurate Admissions Predictor?

Post by The Lsat Airbender » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:57 pm

4.0 is pretty rare, and, yeah, 4.0/low-170s has a pretty plausible shot at HLS while 4.0/high-160s has a longshot-but-real chance. I don't think that's wildly optimistic.

Harvard's a big school and accepts a decent number of both splitters and reverse splitters as long as they clear the GPA/LSAT "floors" (which for non-URMS seem to be roughly 3.6 and 170).

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