2.9GPA, 158LSAT, already got in American & ASU Forum

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:10 pm

I have a 158 LSAT, 2.9 gpa (with more challenging courses than most students take - and an explanation that I largely struggled because of significant undiagnosed service-connected conditions that have since been recognized), from a decent liberal arts school (ranked I think in the 60s), part Native American, ex military, with a pretty good PS and resume. I'm curious what my chances are at the below schools, because I just got accepted today into ASU (#26), and I'd be happy to go there, but prefer some other options that I'm waiting to hear back from. So what are my chances at:

BU (ED)
BC
Minnesota
Colorado
Iowa
Wisconsin
Indiana
Cornell
Vanderbilt
Emory

I also applied to Columbia and NYU on waivers, but I assume my chances of acceptance are somewhere around one in 10,000.

pancakes3 · Post by **pancakes3** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:50 pm

You absolutely have to retake. URM ex-military is a heck of a boost but not if you're not cracking 160 on the LSAT. Your decision to apply to the smattering of flyover state schools is also ill-advised.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:33 pm

pancakes3 wrote:You absolutely have to retake. URM ex-military is a heck of a boost but not if you're not cracking 160 on the LSAT. Your decision to apply to the smattering of flyover state schools is also ill-advised.

Thanks, but not what I asked, unless you're suggesting I have zero chance of acceptance at any of the above schools. I'm looking to retake in February, but already have heard a decision from most schools, and I'm just really not that interested in taking a year off unless my jump in the LSAT is Donald Trump "huuuuuuge". And I'd be plenty happy to go to BC or BU - I'd only skip them for a T14, but I just don't see that in the cards even with a retake.

silenttimer · Post by **silenttimer** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:47 pm

I don't think you have much of a shot at the rest of the schools, as your numbers are pretty low.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:00 pm

silenttimer wrote:I don't think you have much of a shot at the rest of the schools, as your numbers are pretty low.

I assumed my shots were slim, but the rankings and admissions figures for ASU are pretty comparable to most of these, so I figured if I got into ASU this early i should have at least an outside shot at some of these others.

pancakes3 · Post by **pancakes3** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:03 pm

Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.

AReasonableMan · Post by **AReasonableMan** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:06 pm

Troianii wrote:
silenttimer wrote:I don't think you have much of a shot at the rest of the schools, as your numbers are pretty low.
I assumed my shots were slim, but the rankings and admissions figures for ASU are pretty comparable to most of these, so I figured if I got into ASU this early i should have at least an outside shot at some of these others.

If you hit a 165 you would snag a bunch of t-14's notwithstanding the low GPA, because of being NA. I'd really just do that. Your opportunities coming out of MVP will be night and day better than coming out of American or ASU. This is the kind of thing where 5 years from now you will hate yourself for not having prioritized retaking.

silenttimer · Post by **silenttimer** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:06 pm

Troianii wrote:
silenttimer wrote:I don't think you have much of a shot at the rest of the schools, as your numbers are pretty low.
I assumed my shots were slim, but the rankings and admissions figures for ASU are pretty comparable to most of these, so I figured if I got into ASU this early i should have at least an outside shot at some of these others.

Not necessarily. You might have just gotten lucky that ASU was looking for a candidate with your profile. This may not hold true across the board. At the end of the day, if there is another applicant with similar background as you with high numbers (which I'm sure there are many), the school would probably pick that applicant. Regardless, all of these dicussions are purely speculation.

Traynor Brah · Post by **Traynor Brah** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:15 pm

pancakes3 wrote:your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats.

Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:43 pm

pancakes3 wrote:Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.

ya, if I attend law school with a 158 LSAT, regardless of which school I do, my life will suck. Riiiight... b/c studying to essentially hack a learnable test really is going to mean so much more in regards to my ability to perform at law school and in the profession.

EDIT: I'd also add that I have no issue commenting in other people's "chance me" threads because most of that info is pretty readily available - using mylsn, or other predictors. But even getting into ASU at all was not something that someone with my numbers should expect, according to mylsn and every single predictor out there - my softs obviously played a heavy role in my acceptance there, so I was curious if that suggested I should have decent chances at similarly ranked schools, or if that should be discounted as an anomaly, good luck, etc.

AReasonableMan · Post by **AReasonableMan** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:00 pm

Troianii wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.
ya, if I attend law school with a 158 LSAT, regardless of which school I do, my life will suck. Riiiight... b/c studying to essentially hack a learnable test really is going to mean so much more in regards to my ability to perform at law school and in the profession.

He isn't saying it has anything to do with your ability to take law school exams, and practice law. He's talking about the opportunities you'll have to practice law. The employment number differentials are night and day, and for the most part it's already predetermined how many students at x and y school will get good jobs.

What he's trying to say is a 158 is in "trap school" territory where your school is a T1 with T1 competition but TTT type employment outcomes. American is the biggest trap school in the country. Due to its T1 status, you're probably better off going to a TTT where you'll have a higher chance of finishing in the top 10%.

sd1111 · Post by **sd1111** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:09 pm

pancakes3 wrote:Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.

is that really so bad- non-t14? You scared me.

Paul Campos · Post by **Paul Campos** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:17 pm

AReasonableMan wrote:
Troianii wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.
ya, if I attend law school with a 158 LSAT, regardless of which school I do, my life will suck. Riiiight... b/c studying to essentially hack a learnable test really is going to mean so much more in regards to my ability to perform at law school and in the profession.
He isn't saying it has anything to do with your ability to take law school exams, and practice law. He's talking about the opportunities you'll have to practice law. The employment number differentials are night and day, and for the most part it's already predetermined how many students at x and y school will get good jobs.

What he's trying to say is a 158 is in "trap school" territory where your school is a T1 with T1 competition but TTT type employment outcomes. American is the biggest trap school in the country. Due to its T1 status, you're probably better off going to a TTT where you'll have a higher chance of finishing in the top 10%.

Does the T1 go down to 71 these days? Grade inflation is apparently everywhere.

Seriously OP, have you looked at American's employment stats? Why would you even apply there?

tvu · Post by **tvu** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:21 pm

Post removed...

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:26 pm

AReasonableMan wrote:
Troianii wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.
ya, if I attend law school with a 158 LSAT, regardless of which school I do, my life will suck. Riiiight... b/c studying to essentially hack a learnable test really is going to mean so much more in regards to my ability to perform at law school and in the profession.
He isn't saying it has anything to do with your ability to take law school exams, and practice law. He's talking about the opportunities you'll have to practice law. The employment number differentials are night and day, and for the most part it's already predetermined how many students at x and y school will get good jobs.

What he's trying to say is a 158 is in "trap school" territory where your school is a T1 with T1 competition but TTT type employment outcomes. American is the biggest trap school in the country. Due to its T1 status, you're probably better off going to a TTT where you'll have a higher chance of finishing in the top 10%.

OK now see that makes sense, I just didn't think that's what he was saying, because of the, "your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend ***any school*** with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise." Maybe he meant what you said and just phrased it really really poorly.

Again, like I said, there are some others I'd prefer - some of the ones in my list in the OP. And the reason why I got really curious is because the conventional wisdom is that I didn't even have a shot at Arizona - the results from this law school predictor that ASU would "deny" me, not even a "weak consider", and from the conversation with the Dean I assume that my resume and PS are what did it for me, not my LSAT or anything traditional like that. And I don't think job prospects at similarly ranked schools are really trap territory with TTT job prospects. Job prospects at places like BC and BU are not even similar to TTT, and ASU has some of the lowest unemployment rates (I assume they get much less biglaw placement than similarly ranked schools, though).

This link had me at "deny", as opposed to even "weak consider" (even when accounting for URM status)
http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm
This link had me at a 6-16% chance (with 4-14% for BC, and this doesn't account for URM status)
https://officialguide.lsac.org/Release/ ... ALSAT.aspx

So that's why I'm asking again about chances, because conventional wisdom doesn't seem to apply to me - at least not so far this cycle.

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:28 pm

Re-take even if it means waiting a year

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:30 pm

Paul Campos wrote:
AReasonableMan wrote:
Troianii wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:Whatever bro. You're posting in other people's "chance me" threads like you've got all the answers anyway. What difference does it make if I tell you you've got x% here and y% there? I thought I'd help you out by telling you that your life is probably going to end up shitty if you attend any school with your stats, ranked 26th or otherwise. Not only is it going to end up shitty, it's going to end up shitty practicing in a state that you don't want to be in.
ya, if I attend law school with a 158 LSAT, regardless of which school I do, my life will suck. Riiiight... b/c studying to essentially hack a learnable test really is going to mean so much more in regards to my ability to perform at law school and in the profession.
He isn't saying it has anything to do with your ability to take law school exams, and practice law. He's talking about the opportunities you'll have to practice law. The employment number differentials are night and day, and for the most part it's already predetermined how many students at x and y school will get good jobs.

What he's trying to say is a 158 is in "trap school" territory where your school is a T1 with T1 competition but TTT type employment outcomes. American is the biggest trap school in the country. Due to its T1 status, you're probably better off going to a TTT where you'll have a higher chance of finishing in the top 10%.
Does the T1 go down to 71 these days? Grade inflation is apparently everywhere.

Seriously OP, have you looked at American's employment stats? Why would you even apply there?

With an acceptance from ASU, American isn't even something I'm considering at this point. The reason why I even bothered to mention American is because I seem to be doing much better than conventional wisdom suggests. With my stats and URM status, this predictor has me as "consider" for American, and "deny" for ASU, and I got my acceptance from both about two weeks after submitting them. Again, with an acceptance from ASU the only way I'd even consider American is with a full ride + stipend is IF I didn't already have outside funding (which I do), so American isn't even in play for me anymore. And, really, ASU is a pretty good safety school if you ask me.

http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm

mornincounselor · Post by **mornincounselor** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:34 pm

Post removed.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:35 pm

PoopNpants wrote:Re-take even if it means waiting a year

I plan on retaking in February, but again, unless my change (with studying over December and January) is Donald Trump "huuuuuge", then I don't think I'm going to wait a year.

I'm just being realistic here. Most people who re-take study, and the average bump for people with a 158 is 1.9, with roughly 40% getting no boost at all or doing even worse. Obviously study harder, increase likelihood of significant success, but I've read elsewhere (different link than I've attached, which has the data indicating an average 1.9 boost) that only one in ten get a significant boost of 8+. :/ I'd need a boost of 5+ for a big enough boost for it to be worth it for me to wait, and the chances of that are slim. But I'll study, see what boost I can get, and if it isn't at least a 163, then I'll probably choose a school based on this cycle.

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=c ... t%20retake (follow second link - for whatever reason a direct link didn't work)

BigZuck · Post by **BigZuck** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:36 pm

Law school predictor is hot garbage and shouldn't be used to assess admissions chances

It can be really hard to predict URM, military, and splitter cycles.

ASU is no better as the 26th ranked school than it would be as the 86th. By and large those rankings don't really matter, employment is what matters.

Don't go to rando regional schools in markets you don't have ties to unless you have an extremely strong reason for wanting to be in that market and plan to be there long term.

BC/BU are ok schools but really shouldn't be attended unless it's for an appropriate cost (probably no more than around 60-80K debt) and you have ties/a burning desire/reason to live and work in Boston long term.

If you don't have the GI bill or a rich benefacotor paying your way then run far, far away from law school.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:40 pm

mornincounselor wrote:Use MyLSN, it's the only predictor that uses real data. Make sure to check "URM"

http://www.mylsn.com

Always solid advice - I'm a fan of lsn, but I'm often disappointed by the limited amount of data within a narrow band - just look at this graph

http://mylsn.info/896xj5/

Only has data for three applicants who applied to a t50 school who were within 1pt of 158 and .10 of 2.9, and who were URM.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:43 pm

BigZuck wrote:Law school predictor is hot garbage and shouldn't be used to assess admissions chances

It can be really hard to predict URM, military, and splitter cycles.

ASU is no better as the 26th ranked school than it would be as the 86th. By and large those rankings don't really matter, employment is what matters.

Don't go to rando regional schools in markets you don't have ties to unless you have an extremely strong reason for wanting to be in that market and plan to be there long term.

BC/BU are ok schools but really shouldn't be attended unless it's for an appropriate cost (probably no more than around 60-80K debt) and you have ties/a burning desire/reason to live and work in Boston long term.

If you don't have the GI bill or a rich benefacotor paying your way then run far, far away from law school.

I've got a rich benefactor - my Uncle Sam.

Part of the weird thing about going in the service is you lose your "strong ties" everywhere. I haven't lived in my home state for nearly a decade - its still home, but other than close familial ties, it's actually kind of foreign to me. I'd still love to go to BU or BC, because I love Boston and it's reasonably close to family, but it isn't such a huge factor that I wouldn't rule out moving elsewhere.

Thanks for the response BigZuck, and all other who have responded. Haven't gotten much of what I was hoping for, but I still do appreciate the responses. I know that my specifics can make for a pretty unpredictable cycle, and that's why I'm even asking, but I appreciate what advice ya'll offer - even if I scoff at it.

lymenheimer · Post by **lymenheimer** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:49 pm

The thing is, you're asking people what your chances are who have minimally more info than you in regards to your chances. Only experience with the process and other anecdotal evidence are used on top of mylsn. If you've checked mylsn, then that's most of what people on the forum will do and mostly the only thing they can do. So idk why you're asking and then mostly criticizing the comments.

Troianii · Post by **Troianii** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:56 pm

lymenheimer wrote:The thing is, you're asking people what your chances are who have minimally more info than you in regards to your chances. Only experience with the process and other anecdotal evidence are used on top of mylsn. If you've checked mylsn, then that's most of what people on the forum will do and mostly the only thing they can do. So idk why you're asking and then mostly criticizing the comments.

^_- Apart from a single post, I haven't been criticizing comments - I've responded, especially since some asked a question, which I think merits a response.

OK, now two posts I've criticized.

Yeah, I don't expect most people will have much more than info they'd gather from lsn and the like, but it hardly hurts to ask in the off-chance that someone knows more - we've got a bunch of people here who know more about admissions chances in peculiar cases (like URM, ex-military, etc.), and it hardly hurts to ask. I mean, the whole reason why I even bothered to ask was because my acceptance to ASU balks traditional wisdom as it is, where most people (again, based on typical data) would have said I had no chance, and some might have said slim chance. So my acceptance might end up just being one of those weird "anecdotes" that people use to suggest its possible, but I'm rather hoping its a positive indicator of my chances at similarly ranked schools. w/e anyone on TLS says, I'd be okay with ASU as a safety, and pleased as punch with BC or BU.

Clemenceau · Post by **Clemenceau** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:57 pm

Troianii wrote:So that's why I'm asking again about chances, because conventional wisdom doesn't seem to apply to me - at least not so far this cycle.

Strongly disagree with this point, which seems to be the premise of your OP.

ASU's 25th% LSAT was 158 last cycle. It's really not surprising at all that a URM/military combo applicant would sneak in by hitting that 25th%. Certainly not wisdom-defying.

And to be clear, ASU with no ties is not a good safety, as you suggest. You should be 100% committed to making a successful retake happen at this point. Imagine cracking the mid-160s and going to a school with national reach, like cornell, for free.

Edit:

Troianii wrote:the whole reason why I even bothered to ask was because my acceptance to ASU balks traditional wisdom as it is

Glad you affirmed my point above. This notion is wrong, in my opinion.