Seeking application strategy advice. I am trying to keep my options open for scholarships at the lower end (i.e. some money at 2nd tier schools... don't worry, I'm not gonna dip down too far!). Hoping to stay on the east coast (new england) so I'd like to see what, if any, scholarships i can get at some smaller regional schools around here. Due to kids, family stuff, etc, I'm trying not to move too too far away. I mean, I'd move to another planet for three years for a shot at yale or something, but i'm also a realist

So, ED is not really an ideal option for me (but I will if I have to--please see below!). Do have any chance at the top fourteen regular decision? I see that northwestern has been taking most 170+ people lately, anywhere else where I stand a chance regular decision?
Obviously cornell is the best fit for me geographically, but do I even have a shot?
Or, would it make significantly more sense for a supersplitter like me to use my ED on a long shot? The schools around me are NYU, cornell, Penn (first choices, since they are the closest other than schools i'm totally locked out of: H, Y, Columbia). Next closest but certainly not ideal would be like mich, georgetown, uva.
It seems silly to me to apply ED to schools in cities that I don't really want to live in, but if the career prospects are just that much better and if I have a good (decent) shot... i guess it's only three years.
What do the geniuses on TLS think? Do I have a shot at the top fourteen regular decision? Or do i absolutely need to use an ED if I want to get a top fourteen? Thank you for helping a splitter.