Application Strategy Question for Penn Forum

[JDeezy]

Right now, Penn is my 3rd-ish choice. This doesn't mean its a safety school- I'm by no means a lock. Numbers are in the 3.15 / 177 range.

Would it be wiser to apply to Penn RD in September or wait to ED in January (Round 2 ED for Penn) in case my top two choices don't admit me?

[MyNameIsFlynn!]

I think you're overestimating the Penn ED boost for splitters - it basically doesn't exist. With your stats, you have a chance at lower T14 RD and maybe some money, so the last thing I'd do in your shoes is ED Penn. RD on Sept. 1 and see what happens.

[Lavitz]

I think you're overestimating the Penn ED boost for splitters - it basically doesn't exist. With your stats, you have a chance at lower T14 RD and maybe some money, so the last thing I'd do in your shoes is ED Penn. RD on Sept. 1 and see what happens.

Yeah, that's what elterrible found in his regression analysis: http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... 4.html?m=1

Especially if it's only your third choice, I would see what happens with RD first. I could be wrong, but submitting earlier is probably more important than the ED for Penn.

Edit: confirmed in his latest post: http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... atter.html

84.8% increase for splitters for each earlier month submitted.

[Ti Malice]

I certainly respect and appreciate elterrible's work, and I'm not a trained statistician, but given the LSN results below, I have a hard time accepting the claim that applying ED doesn't help splitters at Penn.

(1) RD apps submitted from August to November, last 6 cycles (3.0-3.5 GPA / 170-180 LSAT):



(2) ED apps, last 6 cycles (3.0-3.5 GPA / 170-180 LSAT):



The same pattern holds when looking at just the last three cycles as well.

[Lavitz]

I certainly respect and appreciate elterrible's work, and I'm not a trained statistician, but given the LSN results below, I have a hard time accepting the claim that applying ED doesn't help splitters at Penn.

(1) RD apps submitted from August to November, last 6 cycles (3.0-3.5 GPA / 170-180 LSAT):



(2) ED apps, last 6 cycles (3.0-3.5 GPA / 170-180 LSAT):



The same pattern holds when looking at just the last three cycles as well.

I'll take it up with him, then. I had a feeling I should use mylsn to double-check. Until then, ignore whatever I posted.

OP, could you tell us what your top two choices are?

[JDeezy]

Thanks for the input.

My top two choices are Chicago and Northwestern. Applying to both as soon as I can. Considering ED Chicago. Thoughts?

[Lavitz]

Thanks for the input.

My top two choices are Chicago and Northwestern. Applying to both as soon as I can. Considering ED Chicago. Thoughts?

RD, you're probably not getting Chicago. You would have to ED to even have a chance, and even then your GPA might be a little too low for them. However, if Chicago is your first choice and you'd be willing to take it at sticker over $ elsewhere, it makes sense. They'll get back to you by January, so you can always ED Penn round 2 if the rest of your cycle isn't working out by then.

You won't get NU ED since that comes with a full-ride, meaning it takes better numbers to get in ED than RD, and I think your GPA is too low to get it. They are splitter friendly, so you have a decent shot RD and you could see some money. So I wouldn't ED Penn out of the gate if you prefer NU.

[JDeezy]

Understood, thanks for the thoughts. I guess my question is should I RD Penn out of the gate or hold off so that I can ED in January if I get reject/WL at both Chicago and NU? Based on the discussion, I think I'll hold off and ED in January if necessary.

[MyNameIsFlynn!]

Understood, thanks for the thoughts. I guess my question is should I RD Penn out of the gate or hold off so that I can ED in January if I get reject/WL at both Chicago and NU? Based on the discussion, I think I'll hold off and ED in January if necessary.

Do both. RD and convert to ED if the other choices don't pan out.

[ThetaX]

Understood, thanks for the thoughts. I guess my question is should I RD Penn out of the gate or hold off so that I can ED in January if I get reject/WL at both Chicago and NU? Based on the discussion, I think I'll hold off and ED in January if necessary.

Do both. RD and convert to ED if the other choices don't pan out.

I believe this is your best bet as well.

[elterrible78]

I certainly respect and appreciate elterrible's work, and I'm not a trained statistician, but given the LSN results below, I have a hard time accepting the claim that applying ED doesn't help splitters at Penn.

(1) RD apps submitted from August to November, last 6 cycles (3.0-3.5 GPA / 170-180 LSAT):



(2) ED apps, last 6 cycles (3.0-3.5 GPA / 170-180 LSAT):



The same pattern holds when looking at just the last three cycles as well.

Thanks for the appreciation

This same thing came up in another thread recently...another Penn thread, in fact. Here's the thing: you're looking at pretty big ranges of GPA and LSAT there. Theoretically, all the ED acceptances could be 180/3.5s and the RD rejects could be 170/3.0s. Two very different types of applicant, no?

Of course, that's an extreme example, but to demonstrate the larger point...when you are controlling for numbers so loosely, and then controlling for nothing else save for URM status, it's hard to make heads or tails of what is going on with those charts. For my money, MyLSN is the best site out there of its kind, but for looking at stuff like "will ED help me", you have to be extremely careful just pulling charts like the ones you listed, because there is often other stuff going on.

Bottom line is that in my analysis, in which I control very precisely for numbers, as well as timing of the application (which seems to be a big deal), URM status, gender (which is also often a big deal), nontrad status (which usually - though not always - makes no difference), and ED, it just comes out that for splitters applying to Penn, there is no stastistically significant advantage to applying ED. When you eyeball the numbers, it is pretty clear that a lot of those who were accepted ED would likely have been accepted RD as well.

[LSATSCORES2012]

For my money, MyLSN is the best site out there of its kind

Clearly remembering that I know (approximately) where you sleep

I get what you're saying...

It's just hard to for me to believe that (though this doesn't mean it's false that) the ED pool would be more qualified than the RD pool within any given range of numbers. I wonder what's causing the discrepancy... it must be some factor or factors that had a substantial impact on many people's applications but they didn't know it would - maybe one of the many such factors brought to light by your awesome blog.

[elterrible78]

For my money, MyLSN is the best site out there of its kind

Clearly remembering that I know (approximately) where you sleep

I get what you're saying...

It's just hard to for me to believe that (though this doesn't mean it's false that) the ED pool would be more qualified than the RD pool within any given range of numbers. I wonder what's causing the discrepancy... it must be some factor or factors that had a substantial impact on many people's applications but they didn't know it would - maybe one of the many such factors brought to light by your awesome blog.

Well, when you think about how small the number of EDers we have data on is, and then think about how freaking neurotic law school applicants tend to be, it's not hard to imagine a few people deciding to apply ED to give them the "edge" even though they really don't need it at all. Trust me, when you start looking at individual applicants, there are plenty of cases where you just kind of scratch your head and say, "Why did that person ED again?"

[JDeezy]

Understood, thanks for the thoughts. I guess my question is should I RD Penn out of the gate or hold off so that I can ED in January if I get reject/WL at both Chicago and NU? Based on the discussion, I think I'll hold off and ED in January if necessary.

Do both. RD and convert to ED if the other choices don't pan out.

I believe this is your best bet as well.

What if I apply RD and get waitlisted before I have the chance to switch to ED? I can still ED? Thanks again for the help.

[MyNameIsFlynn!]

Understood, thanks for the thoughts. I guess my question is should I RD Penn out of the gate or hold off so that I can ED in January if I get reject/WL at both Chicago and NU? Based on the discussion, I think I'll hold off and ED in January if necessary.

Do both. RD and convert to ED if the other choices don't pan out.

I believe this is your best bet as well.

What if I apply RD and get waitlisted before I have the chance to switch to ED? I can still ED? Thanks again for the help.

It gets a little fuzzy then, but yes, you should still be able to convert to ED. The question then becomes, is ED a wise move? Unless you are waitlisted for YP purposes (not likely to happen to you), WL is usually a school's way of saying you're an alternate candidate - good enough that they'll take you only if enough first-choice candidates turn down Penn (in this case) for other schools. Given el terrible's finding that the Penn ED boost for splitters is small enough to be not statistically significant, it does not seem that ED would help you.

Planning ahead is always a good idea but you're harping too much on Penn ED. If for some reason you don't get Northwestern with your stats, then Penn probably isn't going to happen ED or RD. If your top two choices don't pan out and you want to attend a top school regardless of cost, maybe ED UVA. At the end of the day, I think you'd be wasting an ED app on Penn.