In which respects is 2013 different? Forum

[whereskyle]

All right, everyone. Each user on this website is bound to have heard that this year is a good year for law school applicants because of potential LSAT score deflation. As a 170 myself, I ask the sages, gurus, and wizards of TLS to elaborate on the ways in which the t14 might regard those on the low end of the high score spectrum differently this cycle. thanks everyone. I look forward to your thoughts.

[Swimp]

Do we really need another thread on this topic?

[bizzybone1313]

Yes we do. Discuss TLS. At some point, the T-14 schools will have to let their precious medians slide, right? Is this the year when the T-14 start lowering their ridiculous standards? If not, will it be next year? Stay tuned and do not flip the channel because of the commercial break.

[sinfiery]

It was last year.

It'll happen again this year.

[whereskyle]

Could anyone link me to a previous thread on this topic?

[willwash]

There are several schools in the t14 (Duke, Penn, UVA) where the median is exactly 170...the first one to accept a 16x median will suffer a precipitous drop in the rankings. Splitters rejoice!

[hume85]

There are several schools in the t14 (Duke, Penn, UVA) where the median is exactly 170...the first one to accept a 16x median will suffer a precipitous drop in the rankings. Splitters rejoice!

Evidently the median at Duke already fell to 169.

[banjo]

Common sense tells us that the schools that will suffer the most will have one or more of the following characteristics:

1) Deadlocked with another school in the rankings (UVA, Penn)
2) Unwilling to reduce massive class size (NYU, GULC)
3) Already indulge in gaming to maintain their medians, leaving them with few options (UVA, Penn)
4) Alarming employment statistics, since I suspect this is a major reason for the dip in the first place (Mich, GULC)

ETA more predictions:
-HYS largely unaffected
-Columbia, which cut its class size by 10% last cycle, cuts another 5% this year because seeing a 169 as their 25th would probably cause them to vomit a little
-Chicago cuts class size by a few more students, gobbles up lots of reverse splitters

[NoodleyOne]

UVA seems to be resonding by throwing money at splitters and reverse splitters.

[eric922]

UVA seems to be resonding by throwing money at splitters and reverse splitters.

Which is great incentive for me to study hard for the LSAT. I used to hate the idea of the LSAT, but considering my lowish 3.2 GPA, I'm really glad it's so important now.

[mr.hands]

There are several schools in the t14 (Duke, Penn, UVA) where the median is exactly 170...the first one to accept a 16x median will suffer a precipitous drop in the rankings. Splitters rejoice!

Evidently the median at Duke already fell to 169.

Historically, their median is a 169. They only had a 170 median for 2 years i think. I don't think the median has ever dropped below 169 though

[bgood2texas]

I got into Texas with a 3.61/166. There have been out of staters with basically the same numbers as mine getting in as well. For those of you unfamiliar with the process, they have to take 65% in state (may be higher), so those from OOS usually have to have higher numbers. Texas' incoming class also dropped by 75 (375 to 300) last year, which allowed them to keep their 167 median.

My observations-greater demand for instate kids at UT. There just aren't as many 166s as last year, so in state kids may be able finagle more money from them.

Out of staters close to both medians appear to now be a shoe in.

Texas is going to have a median drop to 166. I just don't see how they won't.

[gnomgnomuch]

There are several schools in the t14 (Duke, Penn, UVA) where the median is exactly 170...the first one to accept a 16x median will suffer a precipitous drop in the rankings. Splitters rejoice!

really... i mean cmon? 169 still is in the top 95 percentile.. i can see schools shuffling ranks from 8 to 10 and vice versa, but a large drop, i just dont see it.. plus it stands to reason that if the TOP schools grades are falling, then the other schools are falling as well which pretty much increases the pool of applicants, but doesnt change the order of the schools much, just my personal take i could be completely off base.

[20141023]

.

[WhiskeynCoke]

In every respect. This will likely be the cycle that the bottom drops out. Campos has some great posts on this topic. As of December 7th, applications were down 25% from the same time last year, which was already incredibly down.

http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot. ... dgame.html

This year will have less APPLICANTS than there were MATRICULANTS (people who were 1. accepted, and 2. attended) Last year. Campos predicts around 33,000 Matriculants Next fall (vs around 54k last fall), unless law schools start accepting EVERYONE who applies AND every one of those people end up ATTENDING. There physically aren't enough bodies to fill the seats this year.

How will this affect us Fall 2013 applicants?
1. Admissions standards, especially regarding LSAT scores, will drop. This already started last year and will continue.
2. Class sizes will GREATLY fall. At least by 10-20% near the top and by MUCH more at the bottom. Some bottom feeders may go out of business.
3. The schools at the top most affected by this will be those with large class sizes and high LSAT medians. Columbia, NYU, and Harvard will face a tough choice: cut their class sizes by at least ~%20 or allow their LSAT medians/25th/75ths to PLUMMET.
4. CRAZY waitlist activity, culminating in a frantic scramble to fill classes throughout the spring/summer. Expect some ludicrous scholarship dollars to fly around in the rankings jostle between peers.

What does this mean for C/O 2016 Graduates?
5. MUCH less competition for jobs. We could have nearly 20,000 less grads to compete with for jobs in 2016. This is the best news for us of the whole lot.

Basically, good news for us but terrifying news for law schools.

[milanproda]

Regulus, good stuff. Thank you.

[eric922]

Is it completely awful of me that part of me hopes this trend of declining applicants continues well into the 2014 enrollment period?

[ScottRiqui]

Is it completely awful of me that part of me hopes this trend of declining applicants continues well into the 2014 enrollment period?

I'm right there with you. Anyway, who would we feel bad for? Other than what it's putting the schools through regarding their rankings, I'm seeing the decline in applicants as an overall good thing - smaller class sizes, less competition for admissions (and hopefully less competition for employment when the time comes), schools being freer with scholarship money, etc.

[emkay625]

Is it completely awful of me that part of me hopes this trend of declining applicants continues well into the 2014 enrollment period?

No! Why would it be awful? It is much better for every student if there are less people in law school. My school's enrollment for my class is down twenty percent and I'm super jazzed about it. The only people it hurts, that I can see, are the schools. And it's difficult for me to feel sorry for a bunch of academics who make $150K a year (and likely much more) for teaching one to two classes and doing some research. The only people I will feel bad for is if they downsize/lay-off other staff (custodians, administrative assistants, etc.).