please stop abusing posters because you fail at math Forum

[potobro]

I've been someone who reads and doesn't post here for years. I'm not even a law student, or a JD, just someone who formerly considered being one a few years ago. I don't read on here so often anymore because the amount of noise is stunning, but perversely, that's what brings me back occasionally...

One of the bits of noise on here that's always really boggled my mind is prediction of admission based on an LSAT score. I know most people applying to law school don't like math, and maybe half of all applicants are applying to law school because they don't like and/or suck at math. But just a cursory reading of posts makes even a poor student in your average entry-level stats class look outstanding. Allow me to give an example...

X posts that she scored a 169 and would love to go to NYU. Because I most often see posts about LSAT scores and chances of admission, let's just standardize X's GPA to NYU's approximate median, 3.7. X also is otherwise just like your average applicant.

I'm confident saying that most responses to X's post about her chance of admission would look something like this: "Retake. You aren't getting in with a 169. NYU can't eat a score below the median."

Now, that response seems reasonable, right? I mean, obviously a retake 171+ gives X a much better chance than a 169, sure. But how good really is the prediction that with a 169, X will be denied admission? Very poor. Here's why:

NYU received 6,500 applications last year. About 930 applicants were admitted, and only 450 matriculated. Those 450 that matriculated had 75th/25th LSAT of 173/169. Now, it's definitely the case that many of those 480 students who declined offers ended up getting in at HYS, so it's almost certainly the case that the pool of 480 who declined offers had an LSAT 75th/25th marginally better than the pool that ended up matriculating at NYU. Let's say combining the pools together (that is, looking at the pool of admits who accepted and declined) probably yields something like a 75th/25th of 174/170...that seems safe, although it might even be a bit too strong. Anyway, here X is, below not only the median, but also the 25th percentile for all admits. That sounds bad to your average poli sci/liberal arts grad. But what does it really mean to be just below the 25th percentile? In this case, it means that there are 232 (.25*930) students that were offered admission to NYU with an LSAT at most 1 point above X's. With X's GPA at the median, and no other glaring weaknesses, there's definitely a shot at admission. It can't be quantified, but it is well above what your representational poster suggested.

So, to conclude, please stop saying because someone has an LSAT below the median that there is virtually no chance of admission...that's just incorrect.

[09042014]

People with below median scores almost always have above median GPA, or are a minority.

Your understanding of statistics and probabilities is sub-retarded. You should be ashamed of yourself. Learn the difference between independent and dependent variables, you ignorant slut.

[patrickd139]

People with below median scores almost always have above median GPA, or are a minority.

Your understanding of statistics and probabilities is sub-retarded. You should be ashamed of yourself. Learn the difference between independent and dependent variables, you ignorant slut.

I was typing out a similar response, but let's be honest, this one can't be improved upon.

[Crowing]

Are you trolling? You do realize those spots are filled by 1) URMs and 2) reverse splitters?

[alwayssunnyinfl]

The reason most good posters suggest a retake is not only for increasing a chance at admission, but for drastically increasing chances at scholarship considerations. Also, while law school admissions is a numbers game, if you're in that range where they look further into your application, the average TLS poster is not going to have the outstanding softs needed to make them competitive. Those admits with below-median LSAT scores and at-median GPAs are most likely going to be those with substantial work experience, an abnormal and interesting story, or a disability preventing them from doing better on the LSAT.

[potobro]

where did i conflate independent and dependent variables in my analysis? and i didnt proffer a case where X has 25th GPA and LSAT, instead im pointing out that a median GPA and 25th LSAT has a shot at admission, contrary to what most on here seem to suggest. suggesting there is no chance is "sub-retarded".

[09042014]

where did i conflate independent and dependent variables in my analysis? and i didnt proffer a case where X has 25th GPA and LSAT, instead im pointing out that a median GPA and 25th LSAT has a shot at admission, contrary to what most on here seem to suggest. suggesting there is no chance is "sub-retarded".

The chances of getting in with a 169 aren't zero when you are a minority or a have a really good GPA. Almost no chance otherwise.

[Richie Tenenbaum]

http://nyu.lawschoolnumbers.com/applica ... r=desc&p=5

http://nyu.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1112/

[potobro]

where did i conflate independent and dependent variables in my analysis? and i didnt proffer a case where X has 25th GPA and LSAT, instead im pointing out that a median GPA and 25th LSAT has a shot at admission, contrary to what most on here seem to suggest. suggesting there is no chance is "sub-retarded".

The chances of getting in with a 169 aren't zero when you are a minority or a have a really good GPA. Almost no chance otherwise.

i guess can wait on the answer to where i conflated independent and dependent variables.

and now you're almost agreeing with my original point.

[IAFG]

omg lol lol lol

[WanderingPondering]

blah blah blah blah I'm making up stuff I have no idea about blah blah blah

[nygrrrl]

omg lol lol lol

[NoodleyOne]

http://nyu.lawschoolnumbers.com/applica ... r=desc&p=5

http://nyu.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1112/

Yeah... URMs and 3.9+ gpas. OP is wrong wrong wrong.

[09042014]

You assume that because there is a chance that 169 get admitted, without considering other variables like minority status or GPA, that means that saying someone has an almost zero chance with a 169 (without controlling for those other variables) is "fail at math." You proved nothing of the sort. Chance of admission are dependent on a multitude of variables, and you are only considering 1.

[Richie Tenenbaum]

where did i conflate independent and dependent variables in my analysis? and i didnt proffer a case where X has 25th GPA and LSAT, instead im pointing out that a median GPA and 25th LSAT has a shot at admission, contrary to what most on here seem to suggest. suggesting there is no chance is "sub-retarded".

The chances of getting in with a 169 aren't zero when you are a minority or a have a really good GPA. Almost no chance otherwise.

i guess can wait on the answer to where i conflated independent and dependent variables.

and now you're almost agreeing with my original point.

No he's not. Your original argument was dumb and doesn't match up with actual data we have. He gave a response that answered the "riddle" you presented. This thread should now end, before more people jump in on the public shaming.

[nickb285]

.

[IAFG]

omg lol lol lol

It's one thing to be ignorant, but to be ignorant and also smug? Delicious.

[CanadianWolf]

OP: Welcome to TLS.

[Swimp]

What a grand entrance potobro has made. Years and years of lurking culminating in a poorly thought out finger wag.

[Crowing]

omg lol lol lol

It's one thing to be ignorant, but to be ignorant and also smug? Delicious.

That's really the beauty of this OP. Ignorance itself is rampant, but the level of audacity he expresses is awesome. I'm reminded of an old man who I once ran into at a grocery store who was throwing a fit by insisting that it was impossible to compare prices because it was impossible to convert between milliliters and liters.

[TheThriller]

Is the abuse we give posters who think they have a shot at the T14 when they are below both medians more then the abuse you are getting in this thread?

[dowu]

What hasn't anyone brought up the issue about scholarshits yet?

OP, you realize that being above the LSAT median would give a school a damn good reason to throw some cash your way, right?

[alwayssunnyinfl]

What hasn't anyone brought up the issue about scholarshits yet?

OP, you realize that being above the LSAT median would give a school a damn good reason to throw some cash your way, right?

The reason most good posters suggest a retake is not only for increasing a chance at admission, but for drastically increasing chances at scholarship considerations.

[dowu]

What hasn't anyone brought up the issue about scholarshits yet?

OP, you realize that being above the LSAT median would give a school a damn good reason to throw some cash your way, right?

The reason most good posters suggest a retake is not only for increasing a chance at admission, but for drastically increasing chances at scholarship considerations.

tl;dr

I scrolled past your poasttt

GOD I AM RETARDED

[shntn]

GOD I AM RETARDED