Chances? 163, 164 / 3.96 Forum

[DanInALionsDen]

Pretty sure the only people on LSN who got into Boalt with those numbers were URMs, a combat veteran, and guy who seems to have had a crazy life story about overcoming obstacles. Also pretty sure (actually completely certain) that all law schools have moved towards weighing LSAT more heavily in the last 2-3 years - this even includes Stanford. I'm glad that you feel free to call people fools based on nothing more than your own speculation regarding admissions standards. That's fun.

EDIT: Here's the link:

http://berkeley.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0910/

do you understand that there are fewer people on LSN than on TLS? lol 3 ppl with 164s got in last year and that's supposed to be representative?? yeah right. TLS isn't representative at all either.

You're below Berkley's 25th percentile for LSAT. You're not getting in. To answer your question, I believe that LSN is representative of law school applicants generally. Believe what you'd like though.

read my above post. Last year's 25th was 163. I'm not below that. You'll be the first one to know if I get into Boalt

Edit: and no way is LSN representative of everyone applying to law school. There are thousands of applicants to each law school..there's no way LSN is representative in any way shape or form.

Could you define your notion of representativeness?

There are thousands of applicants to each law school, and hundreds of applicants to each represented on LSN. They appear to be from varying racial groups, social strata, and geographic regions. This appears to satisfy both the quantity and quality elements of representativeness. Note that presidential election polls deemed to be representative of the voting population might survey 10,000 people out of millions who will vote - and that would be a broad poll.

[Grizz]

Edit: and no way is LSN representative of everyone applying to law school. There are thousands of applicants to each law school..there's no way LSN is representative in any way shape or form.

In the aggregate, LSN is pretty spot on. the 300-400 ish applicants to the T20ish schools you want to go to are enough of a sample to generalize.

[DanInALionsDen]

I think I know more than you because I went through the application process once. I think the OP has no chance at Berkeley. I think the OP also has no chance at UVa. If the OP would like to apply anyway, because she needs objective proof that she would not have gotten in, then she should, by all means. All we're doing here is giving opinions and speculating. I don't think that my opinion is infallible, I just think my opinion has more value than yours on this subject.

Goddamn I hate how TLS is full of elitists who think no one is getting in anywhere worthwhile with a 90th percentile LSAT. Again, you'll be the first person to know if i get into either.

/thread

Elitist? Sorry, I didn't know I was providing admissions advice to Sarah Palin.

It's all relative. It doesn't matter if your LSAT was in the 90th percentile if you're applying to a school where the median is the 95th percentile (or whatever it is at Berkley). I'm not an elitist. I am realist.

[Grizz]

Goddamn I hate how TLS is full of elitists who think no one is getting in anywhere worthwhile with a 90th percentile LSAT. Again, you'll be the first person to know if i get into either.

/thread

Lawl not /thread

It's not elitism. It's jobs to debt ratios we're concerned about. If you wanted to work in GA, for example, you could get into UGA with your numbers, probably with in-state tuition, which would be nice and cheap. But you want to pay sticker to go to school in the most competitive legal market in the country. See the difference?

[Gotti]

Could you define your notion of representativeness?

There are thousands of applicants to each law school, and hundreds of applicants to each represented on LSN. They appear to be from varying racial groups, social strata, and geographic regions. This appears to satisfy both the quantity and quality elements of representativeness. Note that presidential election polls deemed to be representative of the voting population might survey 10,000 people out of millions who will vote - and that would be a broad poll.

Just because you perceive it this way (hundreds of applicants from varying racial groups, etc.), it doesn't mean it's necessarily representative. There may be 20 AA males on LSN applying to a certain school, for example, but you have no idea how many AA males are really applying. Same goes with people with 164s like me. Same goes with every single score and every single race. So many URMs are not on LSN. The sample size may include thousands, but there are a lot more than 10 x applying. It is not representative.

[FuManChusco]

I didn't say realistic or even decent chance. I said best hope. RC fail on your part.

I assume that you're a 0L based on the use of the term "RC fail." This assumption is only bolstered by your blind optimism regarding the admissions process. In the sense that my "best hope" was Harvard, yes, the OP's "best hope" is Berkley (Sorry OP, no insult intended). If the aim of this forum is aiding the OP in her decision making process though, I think realism is important. And realistically, there is no hope for Berkley. OP is not a URM or a combat veteran. Unless there is some other extraordinary factor, it's a rejection.

I love how you think you know everything because you went through the application process once. you're no more informed than anyone else if you're basing your posts off of lsn. do I think OP is getting into boalt? no, as I said earlier in the thread. that doesn't mean she doesn't have a chance. saying her "best hope" is a school she's a shoe-in for is absolutely stupid though. my advice was to ED to UVA as I think that is OP's best chance at t14. she doesn't want to do that as she is not in love with the school. it's not like I'm telling her to withdraw all her apps other than B.

I think I know more than you because I went through the application process once. I think the OP has no chance at Berkeley. I think the OP also has no chance at UVa. If the OP would like to apply anyway, because she needs objective proof that she would not have gotten in, then she should, by all means. All we're doing here is giving opinions and speculating. I don't think that my opinion is infallible, I just think my opinion has more value than yours on this subject.

going through the application process once means nothing. my apps are in. what the hell is the difference between the knowledge you gained and the knowledge I have. we all know OP has a very slim chance at UVA without ED. I would say it's almost 0% RD OOS. I think her chances at Boalt are extremely low too. I just don't think it's an auto-ding. this is semantics at this point and you're just being a douche. take the stick out of your ass. and yeah, the bolded makes you an elitist. a huge douchey elitist.

[Gotti]

I think I know more than you because I went through the application process once. I think the OP has no chance at Berkeley. I think the OP also has no chance at UVa. If the OP would like to apply anyway, because she needs objective proof that she would not have gotten in, then she should, by all means. All we're doing here is giving opinions and speculating. I don't think that my opinion is infallible, I just think my opinion has more value than yours on this subject.

Goddamn I hate how TLS is full of elitists who think no one is getting in anywhere worthwhile with a 90th percentile LSAT. Again, you'll be the first person to know if i get into either.

/thread

Elitist? Sorry, I didn't know I was providing admissions advice to Sarah Palin.

It's all relative. It doesn't matter if your LSAT was in the 90th percentile if you're applying to a school where the median is the 95th percentile (or whatever it is at Berkley). I'm not an elitist. I am realist.

Sarah Palin? Really? you need to be more open to people with different opinions. This is stupid. I'm done talking on here...i can pretty much say it is elitist. ask anyone with a sub 166 GPA if they perceive it as elitist. Good bye. Thanks for the people who gave me good, encouraging advice. not unnecessarily harsh advice. I'll get into boalt, watch me

[DanInALionsDen]

I think I know more than you because I went through the application process once. I think the OP has no chance at Berkeley. I think the OP also has no chance at UVa. If the OP would like to apply anyway, because she needs objective proof that she would not have gotten in, then she should, by all means. All we're doing here is giving opinions and speculating. I don't think that my opinion is infallible, I just think my opinion has more value than yours on this subject.

Goddamn I hate how TLS is full of elitists who think no one is getting in anywhere worthwhile with a 90th percentile LSAT. Again, you'll be the first person to know if i get into either.

/thread

Elitist? Sorry, I didn't know I was providing admissions advice to Sarah Palin.

It's all relative. It doesn't matter if your LSAT was in the 90th percentile if you're applying to a school where the median is the 95th percentile (or whatever it is at Berkley). I'm not an elitist. I am realist.

Sarah Palin? Really? you need to be more open to people with different opinions. This is stupid. I'm done talking on here...i can pretty much say it is elitist. ask anyone with a sub 166 GPA if they perceive it as elitist. Good bye. Thanks for the people who gave me good, encouraging advice. not unnecessarily harsh advice. I'll get into boalt, watch me

Look what you've done fu man. She's delusional now.

I think you should write your Boalt admissions essay on how someone on TLS was mean to you and told you that you had no shot at gaining admission, and Boalt should let you in so you can prove that nasty elitist wrong.

[whymeohgodno]

I think I know more than you because I went through the application process once. I think the OP has no chance at Berkeley. I think the OP also has no chance at UVa. If the OP would like to apply anyway, because she needs objective proof that she would not have gotten in, then she should, by all means. All we're doing here is giving opinions and speculating. I don't think that my opinion is infallible, I just think my opinion has more value than yours on this subject.

Goddamn I hate how TLS is full of elitists who think no one is getting in anywhere worthwhile with a 90th percentile LSAT. Again, you'll be the first person to know if i get into either.

/thread

Elitist? Sorry, I didn't know I was providing admissions advice to Sarah Palin.

It's all relative. It doesn't matter if your LSAT was in the 90th percentile if you're applying to a school where the median is the 95th percentile (or whatever it is at Berkley). I'm not an elitist. I am realist.

Sarah Palin? Really? you need to be more open to people with different opinions. This is stupid. I'm done talking on here...i can pretty much say it is elitist. ask anyone with a sub 166 GPA if they perceive it as elitist. Good bye. Thanks for the people who gave me good, encouraging advice. not unnecessarily harsh advice. I'll get into boalt, watch me

[Patriot1208]

lol this thread is a shit show. Lulz at delusional people being so defensive when they get the truth.

[Grizz]

Just because you perceive it this way (hundreds of applicants from varying racial groups, etc.), it doesn't mean it's necessarily representative. There may be 20 AA males on LSN applying to a certain school, for example, but you have no idea how many AA males are really applying. Same goes with people with 164s like me. Same goes with every single score and every single race. So many URMs are not on LSN. The sample size may include thousands, but there are a lot more than 10 x applying. It is not representative.

300-400 is enough data points to clearly understand the trends. It's not as good for URMs, but thankfully, you're not URM. Also, most importantly, you're not even on the borderline for ED GULC.

For example, you can get a representative sample from my metro area (300,000) from a sample of 1000 or so.

LULZ

[bluebird22]

.

[Grizz]

lol this thread is a shit show. Lulz at delusional people being so defensive when they get the truth.

This. OP, you came for advice, then you got mad when people gave you reasonable advice. Sounds moronic to me.

[whymeohgodno]

Just because you perceive it this way (hundreds of applicants from varying racial groups, etc.), it doesn't mean it's necessarily representative. There may be 20 AA males on LSN applying to a certain school, for example, but you have no idea how many AA males are really applying. Same goes with people with 164s like me. Same goes with every single score and every single race. So many URMs are not on LSN. The sample size may include thousands, but there are a lot more than 10 x applying. It is not representative.

300-400 is enough data points to clearly understand the trends. It's not as good for URMs, but thankfully, you're not URM. Also, most importantly, you're not even on the borderline for ED GULC.

For example, you can get a representative sample from my metro area (300,000) from a sample of 1000 or so.

LULZ

To be fair, this only happens when there is random sampling. LSN is self selecting so it's not really random. However, if anything it overestimates your chances IMO because people who are the type to search and find a website are probably more motivated and thus have stronger softs/PS. This however is all speculation.

[Gotti]

Look what you've done fu man. She's delusional now.

I think you should write your Boalt admissions essay on how someone on TLS was mean to you and told you that you had no shot at gaining admission, and Boalt should let you in so you can prove that nasty elitist wrong.

i'm delusional because I think I have a shot at T14 and you don't think the same thing....? LOL my bad for having a different opinion. 2 people (non URMs) on the reverse splitter thread, one with 3.98/164 and one with 3.94/164, got into Michigan and the other got into Michigan and Penn...so forgive me for having hope in my own cycle. I forgot that it was mandatory to be pessimistic on here. You honestly don't have to be a fucking douche behind your little computer.

[Patriot1208]

Look what you've done fu man. She's delusional now.

I think you should write your Boalt admissions essay on how someone on TLS was mean to you and told you that you had no shot at gaining admission, and Boalt should let you in so you can prove that nasty elitist wrong.

i'm delusional because I think I have a shot at T14 and you don't think the same thing....? LOL my bad for having a different opinion. 2 people (non URMs) on the reverse splitter thread, one with 3.98/164 and one with 3.94/164, got into Michigan and the other got into Michigan and Penn...so forgive me for having hope in my own cycle. I forgot that it was mandatory to be pessimistic on here. You honestly don't have to be a fucking douche behind your little computer.

Listen, no one means to say you have 0% of a chance. But your chances are, without a shimmer of a doubt, extremely slim. Somewhere in the 1% range. Sure, you can hope, but I never bet on anything with a 1% chance. Also, it seems pretty clear you have nothing else going for you that would make a large difference, if you had told me you had done anything impressive I might give you a bit of a chance, as it stands, your chances are so small that saying you have no chance is, essentially, correct. For all I know you'll be that 1%, but that is, as well, extremely doubtful.

[whymeohgodno]

Look what you've done fu man. She's delusional now.

I think you should write your Boalt admissions essay on how someone on TLS was mean to you and told you that you had no shot at gaining admission, and Boalt should let you in so you can prove that nasty elitist wrong.

i'm delusional because I think I have a shot at T14 and you don't think the same thing....? LOL my bad for having a different opinion. 2 people (non URMs) on the reverse splitter thread, one with 3.98/164 and one with 3.94/164, got into Michigan and the other got into Michigan and Penn...so forgive me for having hope in my own cycle. I forgot that it was mandatory to be pessimistic on here. You honestly don't have to be a fucking douche behind your little computer.

They probably had exceptional softs or some kind of legacy. You have neither.

Also are you sure those people didn't ED?

[Grizz]

Look what you've done fu man. She's delusional now.

I think you should write your Boalt admissions essay on how someone on TLS was mean to you and told you that you had no shot at gaining admission, and Boalt should let you in so you can prove that nasty elitist wrong.

i'm delusional because I think I have a shot at T14 and you don't think the same thing....? LOL my bad for having a different opinion. 2 people (non URMs) on the reverse splitter thread, one with 3.98/164 and one with 3.94/164, got into Michigan and the other got into Michigan and Penn...so forgive me for having hope in my own cycle. I forgot that it was mandatory to be pessimistic on here. You honestly don't have to be a fucking douche behind your little computer.

Saw a 164/3.89 get in on LSN. He was a combat vet. You are not a combat vet, and have no experience even close to it. While combat vet is not quite an epic soft, it is probably one of the best factors that's not URM. Go ahead and apply, but my plain is more reasonable and will possibly get you a better outcome. Your shot is negligible.

[DanInALionsDen]

Look what you've done fu man. She's delusional now.

I think you should write your Boalt admissions essay on how someone on TLS was mean to you and told you that you had no shot at gaining admission, and Boalt should let you in so you can prove that nasty elitist wrong.

i'm delusional because I think I have a shot at T14 and you don't think the same thing....? LOL my bad for having a different opinion. 2 people (non URMs) on the reverse splitter thread, one with 3.98/164 and one with 3.94/164, got into Michigan and the other got into Michigan and Penn...so forgive me for having hope in my own cycle. I forgot that it was mandatory to be pessimistic on here. You honestly don't have to be a fucking douche behind your little computer.

You're delusional because your last posted suggested over confidence in your ability to gain admission. Also, if being a realist is being a douche, then I would be a douche to your face as well. I suggest you PM those two reverse splitters and ask them about their applications. My bet is that they have some kind of experience or special story that, as far as you've revealed, you don't have. Or maybe they majored in Engineering or Bio-chem, in which case their GPAs are extremely impressive.

[Gotti]

Just because you perceive it this way (hundreds of applicants from varying racial groups, etc.), it doesn't mean it's necessarily representative. There may be 20 AA males on LSN applying to a certain school, for example, but you have no idea how many AA males are really applying. Same goes with people with 164s like me. Same goes with every single score and every single race. So many URMs are not on LSN. The sample size may include thousands, but there are a lot more than 10 x applying. It is not representative.

300-400 is enough data points to clearly understand the trends. It's not as good for URMs, but thankfully, you're not URM. Also, most importantly, you're not even on the borderline for ED GULC.

For example, you can get a representative sample from my metro area (300,000) from a sample of 1000 or so.

LULZ

To be fair, this only happens when there is random sampling. LSN is self selecting so it's not really random. However, if anything it overestimates your chances IMO because people who are the type to search and find a website are probably more motivated and thus have stronger softs/PS. This however is all speculation.

No it's not speculation... that is 100% accurate. It is a self-selecting sample so it's not random sampling, so it is inherently unrepresentative.

&It's not moronic to be optimistic about your chances while disagreeing with others. Cool, I heard what you have to say, and I appreciate the input from everyone...but everyone telling me I have 1000000% no shot at T14 without EDing to a school I don't want to go to isn't constructive after the first 2 times.

I've seen T14 acceptances happen for people with numbers like mine. Just because I have faith in my own applications (and I sent every single one out with a Why X, DS, and PS that were well written imo), it doesn't mean I'm fuckin delusional. I'm over this...it's about law school not your own ego so put it down. People will disagree with you (and i'm talking to everyone who's talking shit right now, not just one person) in life...get used to it. And I'm used to it as well, I get defensive when people are assholes.

Like bluebird22....thank you for that input. It's not what I wanted to hear, but I'm not getting defensive about it because he/she is not being a straight up asshole.

In retrospect, I shouldn't have even made this thread.

[DanInALionsDen]

Just because you perceive it this way (hundreds of applicants from varying racial groups, etc.), it doesn't mean it's necessarily representative. There may be 20 AA males on LSN applying to a certain school, for example, but you have no idea how many AA males are really applying. Same goes with people with 164s like me. Same goes with every single score and every single race. So many URMs are not on LSN. The sample size may include thousands, but there are a lot more than 10 x applying. It is not representative.

300-400 is enough data points to clearly understand the trends. It's not as good for URMs, but thankfully, you're not URM. Also, most importantly, you're not even on the borderline for ED GULC.

For example, you can get a representative sample from my metro area (300,000) from a sample of 1000 or so.

LULZ

To be fair, this only happens when there is random sampling. LSN is self selecting so it's not really random. However, if anything it overestimates your chances IMO because people who are the type to search and find a website are probably more motivated and thus have stronger softs/PS. This however is all speculation.

No it's not speculation... that is 100% accurate. It is a self-selecting sample so it's not random sampling, so it is inherently unrepresentative.

&It's not moronic to be optimistic about your chances while disagreeing with others. Cool, I heard what you have to say, and I appreciate the input from everyone...but everyone telling me I have 1000000% no shot at T14 without EDing to a school I don't want to go to isn't constructive after the first 2 times.

I've seen T14 acceptances happen for people with numbers like mine. Just because I have faith in my own applications (and I sent every single one out with a Why X, DS, and PS that were well written imo), it doesn't mean I'm fuckin delusional. I'm over this...it's about law school not your own ego so put it down. People will disagree with you (and i'm talking to everyone who's talking shit right now, not just one person) in life...get used to it. And I'm used to it as well, I get defensive when people are assholes.

Like bluebird22....thank you for that input. It's not what I wanted to hear, but I'm not getting defensive about it because he/she is not being a straight up asshole.

In retrospect, I shouldn't have even made this thread.

Do you have a profile on LSN?

[BunkMoreland]

I can't wait for this OP to be back here next year after 2L OCI...


"are state clerkships credited for 2L summer?" LOL

It never ends. We are SUCH an egotistical profession.

[Grizz]

No it's not speculation... that is 100% accurate. It is a self-selecting sample so it's not random sampling, so it is inherently unrepresentative.

Technically no, but that's not the point of the discussion

&It's not moronic to be optimistic about your chances while disagreeing with others. Cool, I heard what you have to say, and I appreciate the input from everyone...but everyone telling me I have 1000000% no shot at T14 without EDing to a school I don't want to go to isn't constructive after the first 2 times.

You are being foolish. You have a shot, but it is miniscule. You have a fairly decent shot at UVA ED. If this is the only cycle you want to do, don't waste this opportunity by paying sticker or close to it at GW.

Did you even read my plan? It's eminently reasonable.

[Grizz]

I can't wait for this OP to be back here next year after 2L OCI...


"are state clerkships credited for 2L summer?" LOL

It never ends. We are SUCH an egotistical profession.

Hey bunk, I know what you're gonna say, and I'm waiting for my study partner to get here haha. This is my break.

[Patriot1208]

Just because you perceive it this way (hundreds of applicants from varying racial groups, etc.), it doesn't mean it's necessarily representative. There may be 20 AA males on LSN applying to a certain school, for example, but you have no idea how many AA males are really applying. Same goes with people with 164s like me. Same goes with every single score and every single race. So many URMs are not on LSN. The sample size may include thousands, but there are a lot more than 10 x applying. It is not representative.

300-400 is enough data points to clearly understand the trends. It's not as good for URMs, but thankfully, you're not URM. Also, most importantly, you're not even on the borderline for ED GULC.

For example, you can get a representative sample from my metro area (300,000) from a sample of 1000 or so.

LULZ

To be fair, this only happens when there is random sampling. LSN is self selecting so it's not really random. However, if anything it overestimates your chances IMO because people who are the type to search and find a website are probably more motivated and thus have stronger softs/PS. This however is all speculation.

No it's not speculation... that is 100% accurate. It is a self-selecting sample so it's not random sampling, so it is inherently unrepresentative.

&It's not moronic to be optimistic about your chances while disagreeing with others. Cool, I heard what you have to say, and I appreciate the input from everyone...but everyone telling me I have 1000000% no shot at T14 without EDing to a school I don't want to go to isn't constructive after the first 2 times.

I've seen T14 acceptances happen for people with numbers like mine. Just because I have faith in my own applications (and I sent every single one out with a Why X, DS, and PS that were well written imo), it doesn't mean I'm fuckin delusional. I'm over this...it's about law school not your own ego so put it down. People will disagree with you (and i'm talking to everyone who's talking shit right now, not just one person) in life...get used to it. And I'm used to it as well, I get defensive when people are assholes.

Like bluebird22....thank you for that input. It's not what I wanted to hear, but I'm not getting defensive about it because he/she is not being a straight up asshole.

In retrospect, I shouldn't have even made this thread.

In retrospect, you should probably be willing to take whatever answers you get. You knew before you started the thread you had SLIM chances. Why did people telling you this get you so upset? Were you expecting people to baby you? People aren't being assholes, they are legitimately telling you how it is and trying to give you the answers you asked for. It isn't elitist to say you won't get into a certain school with low numbers, it's just an educated guess. If you want to be coddled ask your parents how special you are, don't come on here.

And seriously, in reality, you need to study your ass off and retake.