Harvard 2010! Forum

[DoubleChecks]

Hey all, I've never posted on TLS before but just so there's some more info out there:

App complete: 11/24
Hold email: 1/19
JR1: 3/3 (which surprised me, I thought I was done-zo)
No phone call this Monday

How common is hold --> JR1 --> JR2? Is not hearing anything the Monday following the JR1 a kiss of death?

TLS=LSN user

i dont know about the kiss of death thing, but your avatar pic reminds me of a younger crackberry

[crackberry]

i dont know about the kiss of death thing, but your avatar pic reminds me of a younger crackberry

And I'll take that as a compliment, DC

[Nom Sawyer]

i really, really hope so. all i can say is i feel REALLY shaky about my JR1 performance. i have never stuttered so much in my entire life. hopefully this doesn't constitute "truly awful."

For you, a 3.9, 177 candidate, a truly awful phone interview would have consisted of you ignoring JR's questions and forcing him to listen to a 30 minute banjo exposition combined with free verse. And if your performance was half decent you would probably still get in.

Congrats Brennan, looks like your banjo playing was excellent!

[JohnnyTrojan08]

oh...shoulda clarified. i'm abroad for spring break and my phone is turned off for the week. not really sure why i haven't gotten an e-mail yet though?! but my status checker says "admitted 3/9/10" and an admissions binder's being sent!!!

Brennan, I haven't received an e-mail yet, either, but my status was updated today (3/9) as admitted. I was kinda joking about having the voicemail as proof earlier, but it certainly helped keep me sane as this day kept passing without an e-mail.

Has anyone who had their JR2 on 3/8 received an e-mail, yet?

P.S. Thank goodness we got away from Pac-10 football foolishness on a HARVARD LAW SCHOOL THREAD. At least USC has only lost 1 bowl game in the past decade, to a kneeler in the "best game of the century." Cause it just started, you see.

[brennanlives]

i really, really hope so. all i can say is i feel REALLY shaky about my JR1 performance. i have never stuttered so much in my entire life. hopefully this doesn't constitute "truly awful."

For you, a 3.9, 177 candidate, a truly awful phone interview would have consisted of you ignoring JR's questions and forcing him to listen to a 30 minute banjo exposition combined with free verse. And if your performance was half decent you would probably still get in.

Congrats Brennan, looks like your banjo playing was excellent!

thank you!!! either that or JR just pitied my rambling!! best of luck to you as well.

[APimpNamedSlickback]

in via status-checker!!!!!!!!!!!!

did you not get a call?! i dont think i've seen this happen before.

[Nom Sawyer]

in via status-checker!!!!!!!!!!!!

did you not get a call?! i dont think i've seen this happen before.

he was out of country/ phone off mr. i-quit-tls-forever

[APimpNamedSlickback]

in via status-checker!!!!!!!!!!!!

did you not get a call?! i dont think i've seen this happen before.

he was out of country/ phone off mr. i-quit-tls-forever

he should have at least gotten a voice mail then. i know i had to return jr's call, and then didnt have my status update for several hours afterward.

tbf, i specifically said i was quitting the bp thread and that i'd still be on tls. they all just had a collective reading comp fail

[Nom Sawyer]

he should have at least gotten a voice mail then. i know i had to return jr's call, and then didnt have my status update for several hours afterward.

tbf, i specifically said i was quitting the bp thread and that i'd still be on tls. they all just had a collective reading comp fail

i think i remember a much funnier version of this post before a ninja edit

[APimpNamedSlickback]

he should have at least gotten a voice mail then. i know i had to return jr's call, and then didnt have my status update for several hours afterward.

tbf, i specifically said i was quitting the bp thread and that i'd still be on tls. they all just had a collective reading comp fail

i think i remember a much funnier version of this post before a ninja edit

lol, yes. that my future classmates are reading this thread means that i have to post like less of a cartoon character

[Nom Sawyer]

he should have at least gotten a voice mail then. i know i had to return jr's call, and then didnt have my status update for several hours afterward.

tbf, i specifically said i was quitting the bp thread and that i'd still be on tls. they all just had a collective reading comp fail

i think i remember a much funnier version of this post before a ninja edit

lol, yes. that my future classmates are reading this thread means that i have to post like less of a cartoon character

our future classmates only associate us with our tars so unless ur a white guy in wayfarers or I'm a orange tabby cat I don't think you have much to worry about.

[FTDons]

Hey junkies, I came kinda late in the game. Applied 1/27, didn't turn over until 3/9 UR, no application complete email or status update... Anyone else apply around the same time and in the same boat? Anyone else feel silly about not filling your forms out in october with everyone else?

[invisiblesun]

interesting tidbit. 09-10 cycle on LSN shows 122 outright acceptances thus far, 08-09 showed ~160. if the proportion of people who report data on LSN has not changed since last year, we still have roughly 25% of the outright admittances yet to be given out. if we assume that 750 out of harvard's ~830 acceptances are outright and not off the waitlist, and proportions of LSN reporters have not changed since last year, this would mean there are still ~175 outright admittances outstanding. don't stop believin'!

p.s. it's late and i'm tired, feel free to hack away at my logic or make modifications that would make this more representative

[crackberry]

interesting tidbit. 09-10 cycle on LSN shows 122 outright acceptances thus far, 08-09 showed ~160. if the proportion of people who report data on LSN has not changed since last year, we still have roughly 25% of the outright admittances yet to be given out. if we assume that 750 out of harvard's ~830 acceptances are outright and not off the waitlist, and proportions of LSN reporters have not changed since last year, this would mean there are still ~175 outright admittances outstanding. don't stop believin'!

p.s. it's late and i'm tired, feel free to hack away at my logic or make modifications that would make this more representative

Lots of people keep profiles hidden until the end of the cycle. There's no way there are 175 outright acceptances yet to be made.

[Sogui]

It appears that previous holds are getting a lot of action now, what about us went complete in Jan/Feb heard-nothing-yets...

[of Benito Cereno]

interesting tidbit. 09-10 cycle on LSN shows 122 outright acceptances thus far, 08-09 showed ~160. if the proportion of people who report data on LSN has not changed since last year, we still have roughly 25% of the outright admittances yet to be given out. if we assume that 750 out of harvard's ~830 acceptances are outright and not off the waitlist, and proportions of LSN reporters have not changed since last year, this would mean there are still ~175 outright admittances outstanding. don't stop believin'!

p.s. it's late and i'm tired, feel free to hack away at my logic or make modifications that would make this more representative

Lots of people keep profiles hidden until the end of the cycle. There's no way there are 175 outright acceptances yet to be made.

I guess thats probably true but what evidence is there? Wouldn't people most people already in at harvard be done with their cycle at this point (unless waiting on yls I guess).
Still, there are probably still more than 50 spots open even if there are tons of hidden profiles.

[lsnoob]

there are about 160 hidden profiles for this cycle

[invisiblesun]

there are about 160 hidden profiles for this cycle

I obviously didn't think of hidden profiles, but I'm not sure they have the drastic effect crackberry is implying. there are about 3400 users on LSN for this cycle, and ~850 have put up applications to harvard. we have 122 admits, out of those, so about 14% (fairly close to harvard's overall acceptance rate). Even if we assumed that ALL 160 hidden profiles were applying to harvard, this would yield only ~23 more acceptances, which still would leave about half of the LSN acceptances remaining for this cycle, or 80-85 in real world terms. I think it's more realistic to assume that the proportion of hidden profiles applying to harvard is similar to the proportion of all the LSN users applying to harvard, which is 1/4. So this would imply that only 40 out of the 160 hidden profiles would be likely to submit harvard applications, and only about 6 of these applicants would be admitted. One might argue that hidden profile people are more likely to be applying to top 5s, etc etc, so to account for the uncertainty we could assume that the range of hidden profiles applying to harvard is 40-80/160, which gives us a range of 6-12 add'l admits from hidden profiles.

using the approximation i set up before, this gives 128-134 admits out of 160, leaving 16-20% of admittances still outstanding. in real world terms, 120-150. i realize that 750 outright admits might be a high estimate, but if we go as low as 600 this only drops the range to 96-120.

obviously dealing with precise numbers here is bound to create room for error, but it seems like there are, at the very LEAST, 70 outright acceptances to be given, and possibly as many as 150.

i don't think this seems completely off base, as i'm sure there are worthy jr1-less holds who simply applied late or had a low first LSAT, and it seems that no jr1-less holds have gotten new jr1s for a long time, so unless JR is writing that pile off altogether, there need to be a significant chunk of spots if he intends to give some of these holds a fair shot.

[lsnoob]

Even if we assumed that ALL 160 hidden profiles were applying to harvard, this would yield only ~23 more acceptances, which still would leave about half of the LSN acceptances remaining for this cycle, or 80-85 in real world terms.

sorry, i should have clarified that there are 160 hidden profiles for HLS. LSN says there are ~840, but when you look at the list of applicants, you can only see 680.

[puppleberry finn]

.

[Core]

For anyone who's curious, according to LSN, there were 15 URM admits in the '08-'09 cycle, and, so far (including Corpus), there are 11 in our '09-'10 cycle. Like I said in the SLS thread, I'm taking this as a good sign.

[invisiblesun]

Even if we assumed that ALL 160 hidden profiles were applying to harvard, this would yield only ~23 more acceptances, which still would leave about half of the LSN acceptances remaining for this cycle, or 80-85 in real world terms.

sorry, i should have clarified that there are 160 hidden profiles for HLS. LSN says there are ~840, but when you look at the list of applicants, you can only see 680.

GAH. Okay, redoing my math to account for this.

I also think profiles are much more likely to be hidden before they are accepted. once you've been accepted to harvard, the need for secrecy probably goes down, and for most people their cycle is over.

I think this is probably true, but for the purposes of guarding optimism, I'm going to assume that the acceptance rate for hidden profiles is the same as the acceptance rate of all LSN HLS applicants.

160 more profiles times 18% acceptance rate (adjusted rate to account for hidden profiles) = ~29 more admits. So 150 admitted out of 160. Which would only leave 7% of remaining admits, so 42-53 depending on how many applicants HLS outright admits.

I want to qualify that this is quite pessimistic. It assumes that hidden profiles would not unhide after being admitted to Harvard. If what puppleberry is saying is true, then we might assume that the 160 hiddens contain fewer admits per applicant than the overall proportion. Let's assume that half of hidden people would unhide after being accepted. 160 * 9% = ~15 extra admits. This gives us 137 admits out of 160, so 14% admittances remaining. 600-750 outright admits -> 84-105.

So on the pessimistic end, we have 42-53 remaining acceptances, and on the optimistic (i would argue more realistic) end, 84-105.

[lsnoob]

i like where your head's at ... any assumptions about how many people are left (held/pending) for those 40-100 spots?

[puppleberry finn]

.

[invisiblesun]

i like where your head's at ... any assumptions about how many people are left (held/pending) for those 40-100 spots?

quick, extrapolate total number of dings -> application % represented on LSN -> total applications - total offers


go mathbot go

A major problem here is that LSN has no "held" indicator, and extrapolating how many of the remaining pending applications are holds vs. people who didn't update gets really fuzzy. There are ways to guesstimate given what we have on LSN, but I'm not sure if that would really give us anything useful.