you can find me at www.top-law-schools.com! Forum

[Winston1984]

Hey did you all send thank you letters after your interviews?

Yep. Definitely a nice touch.

[Shelbinole]

I got 99 problems and not having a UVA scholarship offer yet is all of them

[nickhalden]

I was certainly surprised when I got the letter, but I think, possibly naively, that there is probably more going on here than simple YP. After all, a Dillard would be strong motivation for many top scorers, regardless of other options. My guess is that, in addition to a degree of YP, there are two things at work here. First, this is a great time to be applying to law school. With top scores declining 15-20%, that next tier of scores gain value. We're still early in the cycle, and I wouldn't be surprised if you see similar results at other schools for lower-than-usual LSAT scorers.

Second, this whole thing reminded me about a post that Mike Spivey made months ago about the first major study done to determine the predictive ability for law school success of various admissions characteristics. If he had access to it, I would imagine all admissions staff did as well. Among the findings that would help an application like mine:
-uGPA is as predictive of success as LSAT
-Reverse splitters are as successful as traditional splitters
-STEM and Econ-Finance-Accounting majors are worth as many as 3 extra LSAT points
Link for anyone interested: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/applic ... -outcomes/

Not saying that there is some admissions revolution going on, just a personal guess that in the absence of high LSAT scorers, exceptionally high GPAs will become more coveted. It's not just about rankings, it's about building the most successful class possible with the available pool.

Above all, thank you for your thoughts and congratulations on the Dillard!

I don't completely agree with your post though. First, the decline of high scoring applicants is overblown. While the number of high scorers is decreasing, the number of high scorers who apply is increasing. There was approximately a 7% increase in 170-180 applicants from 2013 to 2014 (although they're still marginally below the 2012 levels). That's partly why we didn't see c/o 2017 quartiles decline much in the T14 - in fact, CLS's increased! Second, as another poster wrote, a decline of high LSAT scorers would inflate the worth of 168-169 (and 170+) far more than inflate the worth of high GPAs. Still, UVA has access to 170+ scorers and spending a Dillard on a 168 or 169 is strange within AdCom stratagies focused on medians. Would they rather have a 170/3.85 or a 168/3.9? I believe conventional wisdom indicates the former.

I did enjoy your connection between the Spivey study, which I had seen on Twitter before, and this situation. It's certainly plausible that UVA is desiring Dillards that are successful (as measured by law school GPA right?) and altering their selection process for that. Can any other Dillards comment whether the uGPA, STEM majors, and the other characteristics Spivey listed are applicable to you?

Most of you guys know more than I do about law school admissions, so please correct what I'm posting. And again, congratulations on the Dillard!

[LoganCouture]

I was certainly surprised when I got the letter, but I think, possibly naively, that there is probably more going on here than simple YP. After all, a Dillard would be strong motivation for many top scorers, regardless of other options. My guess is that, in addition to a degree of YP, there are two things at work here. First, this is a great time to be applying to law school. With top scores declining 15-20%, that next tier of scores gain value. We're still early in the cycle, and I wouldn't be surprised if you see similar results at other schools for lower-than-usual LSAT scorers.

Second, this whole thing reminded me about a post that Mike Spivey made months ago about the first major study done to determine the predictive ability for law school success of various admissions characteristics. If he had access to it, I would imagine all admissions staff did as well. Among the findings that would help an application like mine:
-uGPA is as predictive of success as LSAT
-Reverse splitters are as successful as traditional splitters
-STEM and Econ-Finance-Accounting majors are worth as many as 3 extra LSAT points
Link for anyone interested: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/applic ... -outcomes/

Not saying that there is some admissions revolution going on, just a personal guess that in the absence of high LSAT scorers, exceptionally high GPAs will become more coveted. It's not just about rankings, it's about building the most successful class possible with the available pool.

Above all, thank you for your thoughts and congratulations on the Dillard!

I don't completely agree with your post though. First, the decline of high scoring applicants is overblown. While the number of high scorers is decreasing, the number of high scorers who apply is increasing. There was approximately a 7% increase in 170-180 applicants from 2013 to 2014 (although they're still marginally below the 2012 levels). That's partly why we didn't see c/o 2017 quartiles decline much in the T14 - in fact, CLS's increased! Second, as another poster wrote, a decline of high LSAT scorers would inflate the worth of 168-169 (and 170+) far more than inflate the worth of high GPAs. Still, UVA has access to 170+ scorers and spending a Dillard on a 168 or 169 is strange within AdCom stratagies focused on medians. Would they rather have a 170/3.85 or a 168/3.9? I believe conventional wisdom indicates the former.

I did enjoy your connection between the Spivey study, which I had seen on Twitter before, and this situation. It's certainly plausible that UVA is desiring Dillards that are successful (as measured by law school GPA right?) and altering their selection process for that. Can any other Dillards comment whether the uGPA, STEM majors, and the other characteristics Spivey listed are applicable to you?

Most of you guys know more than I do about law school admissions, so please correct what I'm posting. And again, congratulations on the Dillard!

I thought the number of applicants with high scores is decreasing as well, per: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/law-sc ... t-of-2015/

[nickhalden]

I thought the number of applicants with high scores is decreasing as well, per: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/law-sc ... t-of-2015/

I pulled from a Slate article using 2014 numbers, while this link uses partial 2015 numbers. I hadn't seen the Spivey link before - thanks for sending it! If those percentages hold it would be pretty devastating. Do you think UVA would bet on that? I'd hate to be part of the low 170s club that gets screwed by the lower T14 hedging their bets.

[foles]

.

[LoganCouture]

I thought the number of applicants with high scores is decreasing as well, per: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/law-sc ... t-of-2015/

I pulled from a Slate article using 2014 numbers, while this link uses partial 2015 numbers. I hadn't seen the Spivey link before - thanks for sending it! If those percentages hold it would be pretty devastating. Do you think UVA would bet on that? I'd hate to be part of the low 170s club that gets screwed by the lower T14 hedging their bets.

I don't think you'll "get screwed," if anything they will be WL'ing you thinking you have T6 options, which means you most likely will have T6 acceptances. Hard to say that's a bad cycle.

Not only that, but if you can convince a school like UVA that you would attend if admitted (and with the right scholarship $, obviously) I think WL -> Acceptance with $$ is possible. I expect WLs will be very active this cycle.

[nickhalden]

I don't think you'll "get screwed," if anything they will be WL'ing you thinking you have T6 options, which means you most likely will have T6 acceptances. Hard to say that's a bad cycle.

Not only that, but if you can convince a school like UVA that you would attend if admitted (and with the right scholarship $, obviously) I think WL -> Acceptance with $$ is possible. I expect WLs will be very active this cycle.

What I meant was that if those percentages correct themselves to 2014 numbers unexpectantly, UVA could be giving $$$$ to 168-170 and poor 170-173s are left holding the bag. I don't care about collecting acceptances as much as I care about collecting money at the right locations. I hope I articulated my very genuine interest in Penn, Duke, and UVA (all for varying reasons) well enough to be understood.

Ultimately I trust in the process. I'm just frustrated tonight because I'm impatient. I'll be interested to see how everything turns out by the end, particularly when the medians are released (for obvious personal and casual observational reasons).

[smile0751]

I just won the law school lottery--and I am in shock.

I received a Dillard notification in the mail today with a 168/3.9X. I was accepted back in September.

This is life changing. I may or may not have cried on the phone with my mom. I am in shock and absolutely in love with UVA. I cannot believe how lucky and fortunate I am. I really cannot see a way I dont end up at UVA next year.

Non-URM. Econ major. 2 years of Work experience when I matriculate. Very Strong softs.

[nickhalden]

I just won the law school lottery--and I am in shock.

I received a Dillard notification in the mail today with a 168/3.9X. I was accepted back in September.

This is life changing. I may or may not have cried on the phone with my mom. I am in shock and absolutely in love with UVA. I cannot believe how lucky and fortunate I am. I really cannot see a way I dont end up at UVA next year.

Non-URM. Econ major. 2 years of Work experience when I matriculate. Very Strong softs.

Congratulations!! This is an incredible post. Thank you for sharing those moments with us!

[foles]

.

[LoganCouture]

I just won the law school lottery--and I am in shock.

I received a Dillard notification in the mail today with a 168/3.9X. I was accepted back in September.

This is life changing. I may or may not have cried on the phone with my mom. I am in shock and absolutely in love with UVA. I cannot believe how lucky and fortunate I am. I really cannot see a way I dont end up at UVA next year.

Non-URM. Econ major. 2 years of Work experience when I matriculate. Very Strong softs.

Congratulations!! This is an incredible post. Thank you for sharing those moments with us!

+1, I felt so happy reading this.

[xylocarp]

I just won the law school lottery--and I am in shock.

I received a Dillard notification in the mail today with a 168/3.9X. I was accepted back in September.

This is life changing. I may or may not have cried on the phone with my mom. I am in shock and absolutely in love with UVA. I cannot believe how lucky and fortunate I am. I really cannot see a way I dont end up at UVA next year.

Non-URM. Econ major. 2 years of Work experience when I matriculate. Very Strong softs.

Congratulations!! This is an incredible post. Thank you for sharing those moments with us!

+1, I felt so happy reading this.

this. also loved the post + the username/avatar. congratulations, smile!!

[jawsjawsjaws]

Got some good news for people still in limbo! It took them over 2 months to get back to me, so don't worry if you've had a similar wait. It doesn't mean you'll be WL'd or even just barely squeak in.

LSAT: 169
GPA: 4.0 Hard Science

Submitted: Nov 06
Quasi-Interview*: Nov 14
Decision: Jan 15
Dillard (mailed): Jan 24

* I had a dinner with an admissions officer before an LSAC forum. But it seemed more like recruitment than an interview? I guess it ultimately served the purpose of checking that I wasn't a robot.

Definitely a top choice for me so hopefully I will see some of you in Charlottesville!

Congratulations. This definitely gives me some hope - similar numbers, but I've been waiting longer.

[whompwhomp]

I was certainly surprised when I got the letter, but I think, possibly naively, that there is probably more going on here than simple YP. After all, a Dillard would be strong motivation for many top scorers, regardless of other options. My guess is that, in addition to a degree of YP, there are two things at work here. First, this is a great time to be applying to law school. With top scores declining 15-20%, that next tier of scores gain value. We're still early in the cycle, and I wouldn't be surprised if you see similar results at other schools for lower-than-usual LSAT scorers.

Second, this whole thing reminded me about a post that Mike Spivey made months ago about the first major study done to determine the predictive ability for law school success of various admissions characteristics. If he had access to it, I would imagine all admissions staff did as well. Among the findings that would help an application like mine:
-uGPA is as predictive of success as LSAT
-Reverse splitters are as successful as traditional splitters
-STEM and Econ-Finance-Accounting majors are worth as many as 3 extra LSAT points
Link for anyone interested: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/applic ... -outcomes/

Not saying that there is some admissions revolution going on, just a personal guess that in the absence of high LSAT scorers, exceptionally high GPAs will become more coveted. It's not just about rankings, it's about building the most successful class possible with the available pool.

Above all, thank you for your thoughts and congratulations on the Dillard!

I don't completely agree with your post though. First, the decline of high scoring applicants is overblown. While the number of high scorers is decreasing, the number of high scorers who apply is increasing. There was approximately a 7% increase in 170-180 applicants from 2013 to 2014 (although they're still marginally below the 2012 levels). That's partly why we didn't see c/o 2017 quartiles decline much in the T14 - in fact, CLS's increased! Second, as another poster wrote, a decline of high LSAT scorers would inflate the worth of 168-169 (and 170+) far more than inflate the worth of high GPAs. Still, UVA has access to 170+ scorers and spending a Dillard on a 168 or 169 is strange within AdCom stratagies focused on medians. Would they rather have a 170/3.85 or a 168/3.9? I believe conventional wisdom indicates the former.

I did enjoy your connection between the Spivey study, which I had seen on Twitter before, and this situation. It's certainly plausible that UVA is desiring Dillards that are successful (as measured by law school GPA right?) and altering their selection process for that. Can any other Dillards comment whether the uGPA, STEM majors, and the other characteristics Spivey listed are applicable to you?

Most of you guys know more than I do about law school admissions, so please correct what I'm posting. And again, congratulations on the Dillard!

Totally wasn't expecting a Dillard cause I was admitted back in November as a splitter (LSAT>75, 25<GPA<50). Majored in STEM and have unique softs so maybe that made up for a lower GPA? NO CLUE. Super surprised but delighted nevertheless.

[altf4]

I just won the law school lottery--and I am in shock.

I received a Dillard notification in the mail today with a 168/3.9X. I was accepted back in September.

This is life changing. I may or may not have cried on the phone with my mom. I am in shock and absolutely in love with UVA. I cannot believe how lucky and fortunate I am. I really cannot see a way I dont end up at UVA next year.

Non-URM. Econ major. 2 years of Work experience when I matriculate. Very Strong softs.

Congratulations!! This is an incredible post. Thank you for sharing those moments with us!

+1, I felt so happy reading this.

this. also loved the post + the username/avatar. congratulations, smile!!

What a lovely post indeed. Congratulations on your success and enjoy your three years in Virginia!

[everything_bagel]

I just won the law school lottery--and I am in shock.

I received a Dillard notification in the mail today with a 168/3.9X. I was accepted back in September.

This is life changing. I may or may not have cried on the phone with my mom. I am in shock and absolutely in love with UVA. I cannot believe how lucky and fortunate I am. I really cannot see a way I dont end up at UVA next year.

Non-URM. Econ major. 2 years of Work experience when I matriculate. Very Strong softs.

Congrats, smile, so thrilled for you!

[LSCHI]

Congrats to the Dillards! I am incredibly jealous. I have heard nothing from UVA for months. As a low-mid 170s 75th GPA and a why UVA writer, I am starting to get discouraged.

[dude2nd]

Interview Q's with Josh black?

[curlietop86]

.

[smile0751]

YOU GUYS ARE THE BEST!!!

Dont ever listen to the posters who call the TLS crowd mean, callous, condescending, rude, know-it-alls, know nothings, blow hards,...........................................................................................................................................................................................

Seriously, I appreciate all of you and the support of this forum. All I can do is try to return some of the good-will and help others.

[The TrashMan]

.

[Dipper]

UVA giving Dillards to at and below LSAT medians. Fuck me. Congrats to recipients of course, but just wow.

sux to be u bro

I trust in the process, but from a very selfish perspective it's frustrating to see the Dillards going out like this. I'm really just baffled about the UVA strategy here. With full respect to pto1993, hitherim, and june1, a Dillard is literally the best possible outcome for their numbers. Why be so proactive with their trump card to statistically average applicants?

Hey man no beef here. Just thought I may take my shot at those million brownie points trying to speculate UVA's Dillard strategy. I'm going to use a line-by-line presentation so people can argue any of the lines more easily. Fundamentally I think they are taking a hit in numbers over the next few years for long term investment of a sexier Dillard.

- UVA is giving Dillards to median LSAT scores with strong undergrad/postgrad performances.
- The ultimate purpose of the Dillard is to pull HYS students.
- Endowed scholarships are a fundamentally long term institution.
- Therefore UVA wants the Dillard to pull HYS students long term, not just this cycle.
- UVA is decidedly in the upper-middle of the T14. An LSAT point or a 0.0X change in GPA won't affect that.
- UVA likely thinks the best way to increase the appeal of the Dillard is by demonstrating long-term success in Dillard Scholars. "Our Dillards get SCOTUS Clerkships" etc.
- UVA will have their own standards and experiences of what indicates long-term success in applicants.
- UVA may think the LSAT is not as important in this formula. After all, a common thought is that LSAT really serves to indicate your performance as a 1L (short term).
- UVA has determined a point of sufficiency for a Dillard LSAT score. It seems to be around 168. After all the difference between a 168 and a 172 is really just a few questions on a four hour test. (not to downplay the accomplishment of the 170ers)
- UVA may value UGPA, Undergrad institution, WE, softs much more greatly for long-term success indicators.
- UVA is giving Dillards to median LSAT scores with strong undergrad/postgrad performances.

After all, we don't care about the LSAT of Dillard's or Ruby's or Darrow's. We care about what the scholarship offers us, and that extends beyond just money.

Of course everyone that gets in to UVA has the potential to be greatly successful, so it becomes a bit of a guessing game from the Scholarship Committee's perspective at this point. But maybe this explains the surprising LSAT trends.

+1.

I think this is a great analysis. TLS seems to put an enormous weight on pure numbers, when in fact an applicant's numbers should really only be used as a measure of an applicant's success thus far and their potential for success in the future. The LSAT, as we all know, is an extremely learnable test, and while it may correlate to some degree of success in law school, to my mind GPA is a far better indicator of long-term academic performance. It's way harder to maintain a 3.8+ GPA in hard sciences over 4 years than it is to score 170+ on the LSAT by cramming for 3 months. Other factors such as impressive softs can demonstrate leadership ability, interpersonal skills, passion, etc. If UVA is taking the long-view, they want Dillard scholars to become federal clerks, judges, star lawyers, whatever, rather than caring so much about "protecting their median" for the next round of USWNR.

[Mack.Hambleton]

Highly doubt that

[LoganCouture]

Highly doubt that