Harvard Waitlist 2013 Forum

[eyfl]

...
Thank you for tempering my optimism. You raise a really good point about how this information could be more useful if we had that additional data. Unfortunately after a long drawn-out search I've come to the conclusion that we are the first TLS cycle to take an interest in reporting the size of the facebook group around the deposit time. So while it will keep us wondering, as least next year's applicants might have a better way to speculate if they refer to this thread.

The actual count doesn't tell much because people can come and go (withdraw / join from WL). What matters most is the timing of when people join the group. I just briefly looked through last year's group and counted (although manually, so my numbers can be off) at least ~170 people who joined the group between 8 and 11 months ago (May through August last year). Interpret it any way you want.

[TripTrip]

I don't think being in a fb group is indicative of anything and I think TLS should stop being neurotic about that particular figure.

[eyfl]

I don't think being in a fb group is indicative of anything and I think TLS should stop being neurotic about that particular figure.

Don't be a 'Richard', it took me almost half an hour to do the math

[TripTrip]

I don't think being in a fb group is indicative of anything and I think TLS should stop being neurotic about that particular figure.

Don't be a 'Richard', it took me almost half an hour to do the math

You may be able to make estimates about it, but making estimates about that so that we can make estimates about post-WL JS2s is just too many estimates removed from reality to be useful.

If we want to estimate, it would be better to rely on historical data, but we don't have historical data on Fabebook. Even if we did, it wouldn't be very reliable as it is likely to vary much more year to year than any other data to which we have access.

[eyfl]

...
If we want to estimate, it would be better to rely on historical data, but we don't have historical data on Fabebook. Even if we did, it wouldn't be very reliable as it is likely to vary much more year to year than any other data to which we have access.

I'm going to keep my rose-colored glasses & pretend there are at least 170 post-WL JS2s incoming

[toothbrush]

Can we speculate [...]? I'm talkin' that awesome speculation that's not grounded in any sort of reality. That's what I want right now!

Here you go..

I'm going to keep my rose-colored glasses & pretend there are at least 170 post-WL JS2s incoming

[TripTrip]

...
If we want to estimate, it would be better to rely on historical data, but we don't have historical data on Fabebook. Even if we did, it wouldn't be very reliable as it is likely to vary much more year to year than any other data to which we have access.

I'm going to keep my rose-colored glasses & pretend there are at least 170 post-WL JS2s incoming

Not at all outside the realm of possibility based on historical data.

[eyfl]

...
Not at all outside the realm of possibility based on historical data your awesome analysis.

I think you meant this

[TripTrip]

I suppose I could probably back up that claim:

2011-2012: 28 Accept. Total WL: 130.
LSN percentage of app pool: 10.19% of 5,438
LSN percentage of admit pool: 15.49% of 865
Total size of the WL must have been more than 839 but less than 1276.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 181 on the low end, or 275 at the very most. (21.5% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

2010-2011: 18 Accept. Total WL: 128.
LSN percentage of app pool: 9.66% of 6,335
LSN percentage of admit pool: 14.13% of 842
Total size of the WL must have been more than 906 but less than 1325.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 127 on the low end, or 186 at the very most. (14.1% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

2009-2010: 17 Accept. Total WL: 141.
LSN percentage of app pool: 11.43% of 7,574
LSN percentage of admit pool: 19.21% of 833
Total size of the WL must have been more than 734 but less than 1234.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 88 on the low end, or 149 at the very most. (12.1% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

Caveat to this information: the spreadsheet I am using (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=30) doesn't seem to be matching up to my manual searches on mylsn. My searches yield higher admit numbers when using 0-999.

[Skier]

I suppose I could probably back up that claim:

2011-2012: 28 Accept. Total WL: 130.
LSN percentage of app pool: 10.19% of 5,438
LSN percentage of admit pool: 15.49% of 865
Total size of the WL must have been more than 839 but less than 1276.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 181 on the low end, or 275 at the very most. (21.5% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

2010-2011: 18 Accept. Total WL: 128.
LSN percentage of app pool: 9.66% of 6,335
LSN percentage of admit pool: 14.13% of 842
Total size of the WL must have been more than 906 but less than 1325.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 127 on the low end, or 186 at the very most. (14.1% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

2009-2010: 17 Accept. Total WL: 141.
LSN percentage of app pool: 11.43% of 7,574
LSN percentage of admit pool: 19.21% of 833
Total size of the WL must have been more than 734 but less than 1234.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 88 on the low end, or 149 at the very most. (12.1% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

Caveat to this information: the spreadsheet I am using (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=30) doesn't seem to be matching up to my manual searches on mylsn. My searches yield higher admit numbers when using 0-999.

"And that kids is why you can't blindly trust statistics."

But yeah Fbook is not ideal but if there was a way to compare how many were in the group percentage-wise in early May last year and compare that to the final total for class of 2015 (529 facebook, 557 on Harvard's website) we might have a better idea of how many are still to come. (assuming target class total 560).

It's a classic case of only having 2 known variables when 3 would be required to extrapolate the 4th. Well, I'm not a math major but that's the way I see it.

[TripTrip]

Just got the email. WL --> JS1 --> Ding.

Good luck all.













Just kidding.

[broadstreet11]

Just got the email. WL --> JS1 --> Ding.

Good luck all.

Just kidding.

This was cruel. I may or may not have had a slight heart attack.

[helix23]

Just got the email. WL --> JS1 --> Ding.

Good luck all.

Just kidding.

just when I thought my adrenal glands were totally shot from this cycle, you found a way to rejuvenate them. thank you.

[Eichörnchen]

Just got the email. WL --> JS1 --> Ding.

Good luck all.

Just kidding.

This was cruel. I may or may not have had a slight heart attack.

+1 and I haven't even had my interview yet.

[eyfl]

Sup folks? How's everyone enjoying a lovely Sunday before yet another week of wait and torture?

[dawyzest1]

The FB group is at 491 a/o this afternoon...it shrinking is a good sign for WL folks. I hope everyone starts getting some good news soon!

[mickeysevenn]

Hey folks, I have a most likely stupid question and have nevertheless decided to post it at the risk of being chucked out of the WL pile for its apathetic flavor.

In order to be admitted, must one first be granted a JS2? That is, is WL --> JS1 --> admit a possibility? Or, for you LSAT fans:

Admission --> JS2?

This was most likely touched on in previous pages but I'm having a hard time finding the answer.

[helix23]

Hey folks, I have a most likely stupid question and have nevertheless decided to post it at the risk of being chucked out of the WL pile for its apathetic flavor.

In order to be admitted, must one first be granted a JS2? That is, is WL --> JS1 --> admit a possibility?

wut. In order to be admitted, must one first be admitted? yes? a JS2 is the phone call informing you of your admission. Is WL-->JS1-->JS2 possible? yes. Go to the OP. go to lawschoolnumbers.com. etc. etc.

Or, for you LSAT fans:

Admission --> JS2?

This was most likely touched on in previous pages but I'm having a hard time finding the answer.

What'd you get on your LSAT?

[mickeysevenn]

Hey folks, I have a most likely stupid question and have nevertheless decided to post it at the risk of being chucked out of the WL pile for its apathetic flavor.

In order to be admitted, must one first be granted a JS2? That is, is WL --> JS1 --> admit a possibility?

wut. In order to be admitted, must one first be admitted? yes? a JS2 is the phone call informing you of your admission. Is WL-->JS1-->JS2 possible? yes. Go to the OP. go to lawschoolnumbers.com. etc. etc.

Or, for you LSAT fans:

Admission --> JS2?

This was most likely touched on in previous pages but I'm having a hard time finding the answer.

What'd you get on your LSAT?

Oh thank you. I was under the impression JS2 was a second interview, so that's how I got my wires crossed (in other words, JS2--a second interview in my misinformed world--is necessary for admission). Sorry about the confusion, thanks for clearing that up.

[helix23]

Oh thank you. I was under the impression JS2 was a second interview, so that's how I got my wires crossed (in other words, JS2--a second interview in my misinformed world--is necessary for admission). Sorry about the confusion, thanks for clearing that up.

Ok.

JS1 is the invite to interview/the interview.

JS2 is the phone call admitting you.

A JS1 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a JS2 (for you LSAT fans).

Many posters in this thread (myself included) were waitlisted and then received a JS1. We are all waiting (hoping) for JS2s. If you look at the first page, the person who made this thread included a bunch of useful information to get a general idea of what the HLS waitlist is like.

[mickeysevenn]

Oh thank you. I was under the impression JS2 was a second interview, so that's how I got my wires crossed (in other words, JS2--a second interview in my misinformed world--is necessary for admission). Sorry about the confusion, thanks for clearing that up.

Ok.

JS1 is the invite to interview/the interview.

JS2 is the phone call admitting you.

A JS1 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a JS2 (for you LSAT fans).

Many posters in this thread (myself included) were waitlisted and then received a JS1. We are all waiting (hoping) for JS2s. If you look at the first page, the person who made this thread included a bunch of useful information to get a general idea of what the HLS waitlist is like.

Perfect. I was a WL--> JS1-er as well. If only JS1 were sufficient. Dammit.

Thanks again.

[helix23]

Perfect. I was a WL--> JS1-er as well. If only JS1 were sufficient. Dammit.

Thanks again.

congrats!

add your info to the spreadsheet. you can do so anonymously if it makes you more comfortable.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 6Q2c#gid=0

[mickeysevenn]

Perfect. I was a WL--> JS1-er as well. If only JS1 were sufficient. Dammit.

Thanks again.

congrats!

add your info to the spreadsheet. you can do so anonymously if it makes you more comfortable.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 6Q2c#gid=0

Will do! And a congrats your way as well.

[FlowBro]

So WL medians from the spreadsheet are 171, 3.8.

Do we know what #'s Harvard usually pulls or is LSAT/GPA slightly less relevant at this point?

[LSATSCORES2012]

So WL medians from the spreadsheet are 171, 3.8.

Do we know what #'s Harvard usually pulls or is LSAT/GPA slightly less relevant at this point?

I think it depends on their needs.

The people who were wait-listed are probably lacking somewhere but strong somewhere else, either on the softs side or the numbers side, or just on the cusp for both. I think that if they are running close to a median change then they'll pull the numbers they need, but if they're not they'll probably try to get the softs. Just a guess, though.

Based on the most recent acceptances, I think that a month ago they were comfortable with where their LSAT median sat, but I suppose that could change.