Harvard, C/O 2017, Applicants Thread (2013-2014) Forum

wtrc · Post by **wtrc** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:40 pm

Soo, in response to a lot of people that were rightfully annoyed, I posted a passive-aggressive poll up top.

If you are accepted, that's so awesome and it feels amazing, eh? But make sure to post approx stats (or at least respond to PM's!!) and complete dates to help others. Let's all contribute and benefit equally

.

Good luck this week y'allllllllll

politics89 · Post by **politics89** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:41 pm

caiti wrote:
rseaney wrote:We could probably ask admissions via email, I think they might tell us. Just:

"Hi HLS, I was wondering how many waitlist offers were extended last year. Thank you"

That said both stan's and LS22's metrics obviously have some inherent flaws (which both of you have noted and acknowledged). I'm a bit more inclined to agree with stan because 1) I imagine that the vast majority of those accepted a. have facebooks and b. accept FB invitations when they come from HLS, and 2) because I think the LSN data is problematically unrepresentative.
I can't promise that I am representative, but I was NOT invited to join the HLS FB group. (And it's not because my FB is hidden or something; I've gotten invitations from other schools.) There is instead a link on the front page of the admitted students website, which makes me think that they're just letting people who care to join the group do so, instead of inviting everyone. If that's the case, then I would bet a fair few haven't bothered to join. So I would guess that the LSN numbers are better, because you have past data to compare it to. (And even if HLS does invite a lot of people, I would bet that I'm not the only one that never got an invite to join the group.)
Anyway, point being that I don't think the FB numbers are better than the LSN ones, although I know that isn't better to hear.

I'm confused on this. The link to join is in the first email after admissions, I considered that an invite. Unless you're talking about an official invite through Facebook itself, in which case I don't think anyone got invited that way, but I could be wronfg.

lawschool22 · Post by **lawschool22** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:44 pm

I think the general point is that I would guess there is more variability in the Facebook group for a variety of reasons than LSN. LSN has shown to be remarkably consistent over the past several years (a general increase in about 1-2% each year, as awareness of the site grows). I know it's imperfect, but imho it is more reliable than the facebook group. Others may disagree, but I stand by my assertion that we are likely looking at >550 admits at this point. Unfortunately we can't know if this is correct.

caiti · Post by **caiti** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:56 pm

politics89 wrote:
caiti wrote:
rseaney wrote:We could probably ask admissions via email, I think they might tell us. Just:

"Hi HLS, I was wondering how many waitlist offers were extended last year. Thank you"

That said both stan's and LS22's metrics obviously have some inherent flaws (which both of you have noted and acknowledged). I'm a bit more inclined to agree with stan because 1) I imagine that the vast majority of those accepted a. have facebooks and b. accept FB invitations when they come from HLS, and 2) because I think the LSN data is problematically unrepresentative.
I can't promise that I am representative, but I was NOT invited to join the HLS FB group. (And it's not because my FB is hidden or something; I've gotten invitations from other schools.) There is instead a link on the front page of the admitted students website, which makes me think that they're just letting people who care to join the group do so, instead of inviting everyone. If that's the case, then I would bet a fair few haven't bothered to join. So I would guess that the LSN numbers are better, because you have past data to compare it to. (And even if HLS does invite a lot of people, I would bet that I'm not the only one that never got an invite to join the group.)
Anyway, point being that I don't think the FB numbers are better than the LSN ones, although I know that isn't better to hear.
I'm confused on this. The link to join is in the first email after admissions, I considered that an invite. Unless you're talking about an official invite through Facebook itself, in which case I don't think anyone got invited that way, but I could be wronfg.

People have posted things referencing the HLS group specifically inviting, within Facebook, admits to the group, but I don't think they're doing that, at least for all admits. The assumption is most people will join if invited through FB, but I think they are much less likely to do so when simply given the link to the group, in email or the website.
and for reference, I was admitted several weeks ago, so not a super "recent admit". I think I waited 2 weeks for a potential invite and then joined on my own.

bbkk · Post by **bbkk** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:00 pm

wtrc wrote:Soo, in response to a lot of people that were rightfully annoyed, I posted a passive-aggressive poll up top.

If you are accepted, that's so awesome and it feels amazing, eh? But make sure to post approx stats (or at least respond to PM's!!) and complete dates to help others. Let's all contribute and benefit equally .

Good luck this week y'allllllllll

"passive-aggressive poll"

Also wondering who is the person that picked option 2...

Edit: That option is getting popular

gobears!! · Post by **gobears!!** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:08 pm

Post removed.

Quest4Knowledge · Post by **Quest4Knowledge** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:17 pm

I believe the February scores are scheduled to come out March 5th, right? It might be a few days earlier, but if we assume first week of March, how long do you think it would take for HLS to receive and process these scores?

Kimikho · Post by **Kimikho** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:24 pm

wtrc wrote:Soo, in response to a lot of people that were rightfully annoyed, I posted a passive-aggressive poll up top.

If you are accepted, that's so awesome and it feels amazing, eh? But make sure to post approx stats (or at least respond to PM's!!) and complete dates to help others. Let's all contribute and benefit equally .

Good luck this week y'allllllllll

You are so great.
Except if you have ten posts or less and then go "PM for stats" I will laugh at you. You aren't going to be rescinded because JS figured out who you are if you are essentially a non poster.

IrishJew · Post by **IrishJew** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:27 pm

bbkk wrote:
wtrc wrote:Soo, in response to a lot of people that were rightfully annoyed, I posted a passive-aggressive poll up top.

If you are accepted, that's so awesome and it feels amazing, eh? But make sure to post approx stats (or at least respond to PM's!!) and complete dates to help others. Let's all contribute and benefit equally .

Good luck this week y'allllllllll
"passive-aggressive poll"

Also wondering who is the person that picked option 2...

Edit: That option is getting popular

Well I for one checked the "I am a troll" option on LS22's survey, so if you give people a chance to click a ridiculous choice they will

Kimikho · Post by **Kimikho** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:30 pm

IrishJew wrote:
bbkk wrote:
wtrc wrote:Soo, in response to a lot of people that were rightfully annoyed, I posted a passive-aggressive poll up top.

If you are accepted, that's so awesome and it feels amazing, eh? But make sure to post approx stats (or at least respond to PM's!!) and complete dates to help others. Let's all contribute and benefit equally .

Good luck this week y'allllllllll
"passive-aggressive poll"

Also wondering who is the person that picked option 2...

Edit: That option is getting popular
Well I for one checked the "I am a troll" option on LS22's survey, so if you give people a chance to click a ridiculous choice they will

I may have clicked that answer...fourteen times

bbkk · Post by **bbkk** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:02 pm

scoobers wrote:
IrishJew wrote: Well I for one checked the "I am a troll" option on LS22's survey, so if you give people a chance to click a ridiculous choice they will
I may have clicked that answer...fourteen times

You guys!!!! lol. I actually really wanted to click that too, for fun, but i'm a honest/boring person.

Kimikho · Post by **Kimikho** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:05 pm

bbkk wrote:
scoobers wrote:
IrishJew wrote: Well I for one checked the "I am a troll" option on LS22's survey, so if you give people a chance to click a ridiculous choice they will
I may have clicked that answer...fourteen times
You guys!!!! lol. I actually really wanted to click that too, for fun, but i'm a honest/boring person.

I heard LS22 had fun with my various email accounts

IrishJew · Post by **IrishJew** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:39 pm

scoobers wrote:
bbkk wrote:
scoobers wrote:
IrishJew wrote: Well I for one checked the "I am a troll" option on LS22's survey, so if you give people a chance to click a ridiculous choice they will
I may have clicked that answer...fourteen times
You guys!!!! lol. I actually really wanted to click that too, for fun, but i'm a honest/boring person.
I heard LS22 had fun with my various email accounts

He never commented on mine. I think it was spredsheetrecka@4tehlulz.trollz

Quest4Knowledge · Post by **Quest4Knowledge** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:10 pm

lawschool22 wrote:LSN has shown to be remarkably consistent over the past several years (a general increase in about 1-2% each year, as awareness of the site grows). I know it's imperfect, but imho it is more reliable than the facebook group. Others may disagree, but I stand by my assertion that we are likely looking at >550 admits at this point. Unfortunately we can't know if this is correct.

Apologies for bringing this up again, but I'm confused on one thing and maybe LS22 or someone could help explain this:

Yes, LSN has been consistent over the past few cycles on a year-to-year basis (IIRC represents ~13% of applicant pool). But this does not say anything about WHEN in the cycle applicants are accepted, right? Couldn't we have a case where on average, users on LSN are accepted earlier in the cycle than other applicants? I don't think this is too outrageous to assume (if I'm missing something obvious please let me know). This could be for a variety of reasons: higher numbers, apps in earlier, more 'research' on application process, lack of updating profiles later on in the cycle.

If this assumption is true, then at this point in the cycle, it would make sense that the current level of LSN admits is higher than the historical year-to-year % of LSN admits, no? And as the cycle goes on and comes to a close, this % lowers back to the historical average? Essentially, wouldn't projections on decisions rendered in the middle of a cycle based on year-to-year averages be too high?

lawschool22 · Post by **lawschool22** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:17 pm

Quest4Knowledge wrote:
lawschool22 wrote:LSN has shown to be remarkably consistent over the past several years (a general increase in about 1-2% each year, as awareness of the site grows). I know it's imperfect, but imho it is more reliable than the facebook group. Others may disagree, but I stand by my assertion that we are likely looking at >550 admits at this point. Unfortunately we can't know if this is correct.
Apologies for bringing this up again, but I'm confused on one thing and maybe LS22 or someone could help explain this:

Yes, LSN has been consistent over the past few cycles on a year-to-year basis (IIRC represents ~13% of applicant pool). But this does not say anything about WHEN in the cycle applicants are accepted, right? Couldn't we have a case where on average, users on LSN are accepted earlier in the cycle than other applicants? I don't think this is too outrageous to assume (if I'm missing something obvious please let me know). This could be for a variety of reasons: higher numbers, apps in earlier, more 'research' on application process, lack of updating profiles later on in the cycle.

If this assumption is true, then at this point in the cycle, it would make sense that the current level of LSN admits is higher than the historical year-to-year % of LSN admits, no? And as the cycle goes on and comes to a close, this % lowers back to the historical average? Essentially, wouldn't projections on decisions rendered in the middle of a cycle based on year-to-year averages be too high?

Yep this is entirely possible, and somewhat reasonable. That's why I think 617 is probably too high. But I don't think it's less than 500, just based on where we are in the cycle, as well as other info I have. Unfortunately there isn't a way to know exactly.

Quest4Knowledge · Post by **Quest4Knowledge** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:23 pm

Quest4Knowledge wrote:
lawschool22 wrote: Yes, LSN has been consistent over the past few cycles on a year-to-year basis (IIRC represents ~13% of applicant pool). But this does not say anything about WHEN in the cycle applicants are accepted, right? Couldn't we have a case where on average, users on LSN are accepted earlier in the cycle than other applicants? I don't think this is too outrageous to assume (if I'm missing something obvious please let me know). This could be for a variety of reasons: higher numbers, apps in earlier, more 'research' on application process, lack of updating profiles later on in the cycle.
Yep this is entirely possible, and somewhat reasonable. That's why I think 617 is probably too high. But I don't think it's less than 500, just based on where we are in the cycle, as well as other info I have. Unfortunately there isn't a way to know exactly.

Ah okay. Makes sense, and definitely true that there isn't any way to know exactly. Roughly 500-550 makes sense looking at both the LSN estimate/Facebook group I think.

If I ever get a call from JS I'll try and ask...

selden · Post by **selden** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:29 pm

Quest4Knowledge wrote:
Quest4Knowledge wrote:
lawschool22 wrote: Yes, LSN has been consistent over the past few cycles on a year-to-year basis (IIRC represents ~13% of applicant pool). But this does not say anything about WHEN in the cycle applicants are accepted, right? Couldn't we have a case where on average, users on LSN are accepted earlier in the cycle than other applicants? I don't think this is too outrageous to assume (if I'm missing something obvious please let me know). This could be for a variety of reasons: higher numbers, apps in earlier, more 'research' on application process, lack of updating profiles later on in the cycle.
Yep this is entirely possible, and somewhat reasonable. That's why I think 617 is probably too high. But I don't think it's less than 500, just based on where we are in the cycle, as well as other info I have. Unfortunately there isn't a way to know exactly.
Ah okay. Makes sense, and definitely true that there isn't any way to know exactly. Roughly 500-550 makes sense looking at both the LSN estimate/Facebook group I think.

If I ever get a call from JS I'll try and ask...

Agreed, and I'm glad that seems to be the rough consensus because that still means there are a LOT of offers to go out.

As for asking JS when you get accepted, solid idea. "So, any questions for me?" "Yeah, my TLS homies and I would really like to know how many more acceptances you have to give out...on second thought, how about complete anonymized admissions data? What, it doesn't even need to be anonymized? Perfect."

Kimikho · Post by **Kimikho** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:33 pm

WTRC, I just noticed the poll says "WHEN I get my JS2."

My OCD is screaming at me to request you change that to "IF" because I can't delete my vote tyia.

Quest4Knowledge · Post by **Quest4Knowledge** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:50 pm

selden wrote:
Quest4Knowledge wrote:Roughly 500-550 makes sense looking at both the LSN estimate/Facebook group I think.

If I ever get a call from JS I'll try and ask...
Agreed, and I'm glad that seems to be the rough consensus because that still means there are a LOT of offers to go out.

As for asking JS when you get accepted, solid idea. "So, any questions for me?" "Yeah, my TLS homies and I would really like to know how many more acceptances you have to give out...on second thought, how about complete anonymized admissions data? What, it doesn't even need to be anonymized? Perfect."

Haha, it sounds so reasonable. I think a TLS Ocean's 11 style heist is in order... Am looking for 10 more volunteers.

gobears!! · Post by **gobears!!** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:08 pm

Post removed.

The-Specs · Post by **The-Specs** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:15 pm

Guys, guys guys. I've been reading through all the speculation about how full the HLS ℅ 2017 is and I think you are all missing the obvious. Look around you! There are a lot of the TLS regulars that haven't gotten in yet so clearly the class isn't anywhere near full. HTH.

Jessasaurus · Post by **Jessasaurus** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:27 pm

The-Specs wrote:Guys, guys guys. I've been reading through all the speculation about how full the HLS ℅ 2017 is and I think you are all missing the obvious. Look around you! There are a lot of the TLS regulars that haven't gotten in yet so clearly the class isn't anywhere near full. HTH.

+1

bbkk · Post by **bbkk** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:43 pm

Jessasaurus wrote:
The-Specs wrote:Guys, guys guys. I've been reading through all the speculation about how full the HLS ℅ 2017 is and I think you are all missing the obvious. Look around you! There are a lot of the TLS regulars that haven't gotten in yet so clearly the class isn't anywhere near full. HTH.
+1

Love the optimism.

NoDayButToday · Post by **NoDayButToday** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:55 pm

lastsamurai · Post by **lastsamurai** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:02 pm

NoDayButToday wrote:
scoobers wrote:WTRC, I just noticed the poll says "WHEN I get my JS2."

My OCD is screaming at me to request you change that to "IF" because I can't delete my vote tyia.
But "when" is so much more optimistic!

It's all about the jinx