Harvard, C/O 2017, Applicants Thread (2013-2014) Forum

[lawschool22]

Well, we are fairly late in the cycle and going by those numbers there are still more than 1/3 of acceptances to go.

Yeah I was going to say it is almost March so this shouldn't be that surprising. I could also be way off lol.

[lawschool22]

I just did some re-calculations with updated LSN data, and here are my current projections:

Total admitted: 617
Total rejected: 2,348
Remaining decisions: 2,520
Remaining acceptances: 233

Interesting, what is the latest estimate on remaining JS1s? (My apologies if this was just mentioned recently, trying to catch up with the thread)

There isn't really a way of knowing this. We may be able to get a rough estimate for the next cycle once we get a full year of spreadsheet data. The problem is we don't know how representative the JS1 data in the spreadsheet is yet.

[Fianna13]

Well, we are fairly late in the cycle and going by those numbers there are still more than 1/3 of acceptances to go.

Yeah I was going to say it is almost March so this shouldn't be that surprising. I could also be way off lol.

So is it fair to say that most people who applied before Jan who would've have gotten accepted already did? If that's true, then majority of those seats left should be among us who took December and possibly Feb test.

[drawstring]

I imagine that most of the acceptances from this point will go to those people, but there will probably also be a scattering of people who applied September-December or so (i.e. the people being defacto held).

I also have a feeling that there will be more dings on Monday.

[rseaney]

I imagine that most of the acceptances from this point will go to those people, but there will probably also be a scattering of people who applied September-December or so (i.e. the people being defacto held).

I also have a feeling that there will be more dings on Monday.

-1

[LawSchoolOrNah]

Gambles on JS2s this Friday or nah?

[esther0123]

...so if I took Dec LSAT, should I have at least heard about JS1 if I was in consideration? No word = probably rejected/held?

[drawstring]

When did you apply? Some people get JS1s off the waitlist as well.

[esther0123]

When did you apply? Some people get JS1s off the waitlist as well.

i submitted mid november with my october score (retook december) and went complete on December 3rd. Later took december and was informed that it would be included in my file review.

[gobosox]

Does anyone know how they will contact you if you can't answer phones? I am deployed for the Navy now and don't have my phone...

[HorseThief]

Does anyone know how they will contact you if you can't answer phones? I am deployed for the Navy now and don't have my phone...

E-mail. I don't have a phone either, so as long as they know, they'll send you an e-mail.

[sup_stan]

So I just thought of a question that I hope LS22 or other ppl can answer:

Do the projected 1200 JS1 calls include those that happen post-waitlist? What about the roughly 850 admission offers, do they include WL-admit? Might be dumb questions, but I asked this because I dont understand why HLS would hand out 850 or so JS2s before WL, since this practice could easily make them over-admit. If I were them I would just admit about 600 people (adjusted for withdrawals and deferrals from last year) before the deposit deadline and admit people off the WL when some of the 600 admitted students either defer or go to other schools after the deadline. This seems to be a much smarter way to admit than just accepting 850 people before the deposit deadline/WL wave. I estimated a total of 600 JS2s before the deposit deadline since I have heard that HLS likes to admit many people off the WL, and 250 WL-admits seem reasonable considering T-14 schollys and cross-yields between SLS, YLS, and HLS.

If my guess is correct, then maybe the current size of the HLS 2017 FB group is a more accurate indication of the number of JS2s already handed out than LS22's estimate of 617 in the previous page. LS22, did you differentiate between direct admit before May and WL-admit in your calculations? The HLS 2017 FB group currently has about 360 people, but im not sure how many of those are admin and how many admitted students are not in the group. If HLS has a goal to admit 600 people before WL or the second ASW, then I estimate that we can see about 150-200 JS2s from now to the end of April.

Really hope I'm wrong, would appreciate any insight.

[HorseThief]

So I just thought of a question that I hope LS22 or other ppl can answer:

Do the projected 1200 JS1 calls include those that happen post-waitlist? What about the roughly 850 admission offers, do they include WL-admit? Might be dumb questions, but I asked this because I dont understand why HLS would hand out 850 or so JS2s before WL, since this practice could easily make them over-admit. If I were them I would just admit about 600 people (adjusted for withdrawals and deferrals from last year) before the deposit deadline and admit people off the WL when some of the 600 admitted students either defer or go to other schools after the deadline. This seems to be a much smarter way to admit than just accepting 850 people before the deposit deadline/WL wave. I estimated a total of 600 JS2s before the deposit deadline since I have heard that HLS likes to admit many people off the WL, and 250 WL-admits seem reasonable considering T-14 schollys and cross-yields between SLS, YLS, and HLS.

If my guess is correct, then maybe the current size of the HLS 2017 FB group is a more accurate indication of the number of JS2s already handed out than LS22's estimate of 617 in the previous page. LS22, did you differentiate between direct admit before May and WL-admit in your calculations? The HLS 2017 FB group currently has about 360 people, but im not sure how many of those are admin and how many admitted students are not in the group. If HLS has a goal to admit 600 people before WL or the second ASW, then I estimate that we can see about 150-200 JS2s from now to the end of April.

Really hope I'm wrong, would appreciate any insight.

Initially, giving only 600 JS2's, but HLS can't afford to do this. It just isn't the top choice for enough people. In fact, the only school that can come close is Yale, since 80% of their admitted students end up matriculating. Every single other school offers way more spots than they have because they know some students will withdraw due to more $$$, location preference, ASW feels, etc. Plus, it wouldn't be a very nice thing to its future students to slap them on the waitlist.

While I don't know exactly why schools do this, it is in line with standard admissions practices.

FYI: Matriculants vs Offers (M/O)

• Yale (199/247)
• Harvard (568/858)
• Stanford (179/392)
• Columbia (352/1,236)
• Chicago (196/836)
• NYU (437/1800)
• Penn (251/912)
• UVA (330/1,071)
• Berkeley (284/1,050)
• Michigan (315/1,318)
• Duke (209/954)
• Northwestern (229/1,039)
• Cornell (193/1,226)
• Georgetown (554/2,353)

[cesium]

Anyone know approximately how many people Harvard has historically accepted off the waitlist?

[lawschool22]

My calc did not take into consideration the WL but that's because it's impossible with the data we have. We know how many WL->admits there were per LSN, but we don't know how many there were total per Harvard. So you can't calculate a percentage of total WL that LSN represents like you can for rejections or total admits. Unfortunately this is the best metric we have.

If you could do this I don't think it would make you worry much. The likely thing that would happen is the percentage of pure admits that LSN represents would increase (people are more likely to update LSN if they get admitted now than if they get in late off the wait lost). What this means is the current projected admits would actually go down. But then we would add the caveat that some of the remaining seats would be saved for WL admits.

What I would guess is that there are around 225 spots left between now and may 1, and then there are another 25-50 WL admit spots. This is because my 617 estimate is likely a touch high because of the WL issue as you describe. But what I like is that this estimate is conservatively high, rather than the other way around.

[Pneumonia]

I just did some re-calculations with updated LSN data, and here are my current projections:

Total admitted: 617
Total rejected: 2,348
Remaining decisions: 2,520
Remaining acceptances: 233

I would be so interested to know how accurate this is. Maybe an accomm could post : )
+/- 15% margin of error?

[sup_stan]

So I just thought of a question that I hope LS22 or other ppl can answer:

Do the projected 1200 JS1 calls include those that happen post-waitlist? What about the roughly 850 admission offers, do they include WL-admit? Might be dumb questions, but I asked this because I dont understand why HLS would hand out 850 or so JS2s before WL, since this practice could easily make them over-admit. If I were them I would just admit about 600 people (adjusted for withdrawals and deferrals from last year) before the deposit deadline and admit people off the WL when some of the 600 admitted students either defer or go to other schools after the deadline. This seems to be a much smarter way to admit than just accepting 850 people before the deposit deadline/WL wave. I estimated a total of 600 JS2s before the deposit deadline since I have heard that HLS likes to admit many people off the WL, and 250 WL-admits seem reasonable considering T-14 schollys and cross-yields between SLS, YLS, and HLS.

If my guess is correct, then maybe the current size of the HLS 2017 FB group is a more accurate indication of the number of JS2s already handed out than LS22's estimate of 617 in the previous page. LS22, did you differentiate between direct admit before May and WL-admit in your calculations? The HLS 2017 FB group currently has about 360 people, but im not sure how many of those are admin and how many admitted students are not in the group. If HLS has a goal to admit 600 people before WL or the second ASW, then I estimate that we can see about 150-200 JS2s from now to the end of April.

Really hope I'm wrong, would appreciate any insight.

Initially, giving only 600 JS2's, but HLS can't afford to do this. It just isn't the top choice for enough people. In fact, the only school that can come close is Yale, since 80% of their admitted students end up matriculating. Every single other school offers way more spots than they have because they know some students will withdraw due to more $$$, location preference, ASW feels, etc. Plus, it wouldn't be a very nice thing to its future students to slap them on the waitlist.

While I don't know exactly why schools do this, it is in line with standard admissions practices.

FYI: Matriculants vs Offers (M/O)

• Yale (199/247)
• Harvard (568/858)
• Stanford (179/392)
• Columbia (352/1,236)
• Chicago (196/836)
• NYU (437/1800)
• Penn (251/912)
• UVA (330/1,071)
• Berkeley (284/1,050)
• Michigan (315/1,318)
• Duke (209/954)
• Northwestern (229/1,039)
• Cornell (193/1,226)
• Georgetown (554/2,353)

I personally think the risk of over-admit should be more important to them than making some of the students wait, especially since this is HLS we are talking about. There has to be a reason why they were able to maintain the class size at about the same number every year despite different total offers handed out, and the way I suggested seems like a better method to ensure class size consistency than simply giving out 850 offers before the deposit deadline. My method also tends to give better yield % as it only admits when necessary.

I understand HLS is not the top choice for many people (hence my projection of 250 WL-admits), but my question is how many of them would withdraw before HLS starts waitlisting people? These admits that eventually go to other schools would likely make decisions shortly after the ASW, and given the second ASW is close to the WL wave in April/May, I would be conservative in my admits if I were HLS before WL and make admission decisions based on the withdrawals I received. The stats you listed still include WL-admits and hence do not really contradict my theory, and different schools will have different admission timelines based on their history of admits.

[sup_stan]

My calc did not take into consideration the WL but that's because it's impossible with the data we have. We know how many WL->admits there were per LSN, but we don't know how many there were total per Harvard. So you can't calculate a percentage of total WL that LSN represents like you can for rejections or total admits. Unfortunately this is the best metric we have.

If you could do this I don't think it would make you worry much. The likely thing that would happen is the percentage of pure admits that LSN represents would increase (people are more likely to update LSN if they get admitted now than if they get in late off the wait lost). What this means is the current projected admits would actually go down. But then we would add the caveat that some of the remaining seats would be saved for WL admits.

What I would guess is that there are around 225 spots left between now and may 1, and then there are another 25-50 WL admit spots. This is because my 617 estimate is likely a touch high because of the WL issue as you describe. But what I like is that this estimate is conservatively high, rather than the other way around.

I heard that admitted students would be given the link to FB group shortly after they are admitted. Sorry if this is a non-issue, but I just cannot reconcile the 360 or so people in the current FB group to your estimate of 617 JS2s. 25-50 WL admit spots seem kind of low as I heard anecdotal evidence that the movement from HLS WL is rather sizable. The WL-admits from last year's Harvard wait-list thread seem to approach 20, I could be wrong though.

I guess either way, we both project about 200 JS2s left before May, the only difference is how much movement we can expect after WL. The distinction between WL-admit and direct admit is rather important to me because I really need the latter. Oh welp back to my depression.

[TheMostDangerousLG]

So I just thought of a question that I hope LS22 or other ppl can answer:

Do the projected 1200 JS1 calls include those that happen post-waitlist? What about the roughly 850 admission offers, do they include WL-admit? Might be dumb questions, but I asked this because I dont understand why HLS would hand out 850 or so JS2s before WL, since this practice could easily make them over-admit. If I were them I would just admit about 600 people (adjusted for withdrawals and deferrals from last year) before the deposit deadline and admit people off the WL when some of the 600 admitted students either defer or go to other schools after the deadline. This seems to be a much smarter way to admit than just accepting 850 people before the deposit deadline/WL wave. I estimated a total of 600 JS2s before the deposit deadline since I have heard that HLS likes to admit many people off the WL, and 250 WL-admits seem reasonable considering T-14 schollys and cross-yields between SLS, YLS, and HLS.

If my guess is correct, then maybe the current size of the HLS 2017 FB group is a more accurate indication of the number of JS2s already handed out than LS22's estimate of 617 in the previous page. LS22, did you differentiate between direct admit before May and WL-admit in your calculations? The HLS 2017 FB group currently has about 360 people, but im not sure how many of those are admin and how many admitted students are not in the group. If HLS has a goal to admit 600 people before WL or the second ASW, then I estimate that we can see about 150-200 JS2s from now to the end of April.

Really hope I'm wrong, would appreciate any insight.

Initially, giving only 600 JS2's, but HLS can't afford to do this. It just isn't the top choice for enough people. In fact, the only school that can come close is Yale, since 80% of their admitted students end up matriculating. Every single other school offers way more spots than they have because they know some students will withdraw due to more $$$, location preference, ASW feels, etc. Plus, it wouldn't be a very nice thing to its future students to slap them on the waitlist.

While I don't know exactly why schools do this, it is in line with standard admissions practices.

FYI: Matriculants vs Offers (M/O)

• Yale (199/247)
• Harvard (568/858)
• Stanford (179/392)
• Columbia (352/1,236)
• Chicago (196/836)
• NYU (437/1800)
• Penn (251/912)
• UVA (330/1,071)
• Berkeley (284/1,050)
• Michigan (315/1,318)
• Duke (209/954)
• Northwestern (229/1,039)
• Cornell (193/1,226)
• Georgetown (554/2,353)

I personally think the risk of over-admit should be more important to them than making some of the students wait, especially since this is HLS we are talking about. There has to be a reason why they were able to maintain the class size at about the same number every year despite different total offers handed out, and the way I suggested seems like a better method to ensure class size consistency than simply giving out 850 offers before the deposit deadline. My method also tends to give better yield % as it only admits when necessary.

I understand HLS is not the top choice for many people (hence my projection of 250 WL-admits), but my question is how many of them would withdraw before HLS starts waitlisting people? These admits that eventually go to other schools would likely make decisions shortly after the ASW, and given the second ASW is close to the WL wave in April/May, I would be conservative in my admits if I were HLS before WL and make admission decisions based on the withdrawals I received. The stats you listed still include WL-admits and hence do not really contradict my theory, and different schools will have different admission timelines based on their history of admits.

Spit-take at 250 WL admits.

[Quest4Knowledge]

I heard that admitted students would be given the link to FB group shortly after they are admitted. Sorry if this is a non-issue, but I just cannot reconcile the 360 or so people in the current FB group to your estimate of 617 JS2s. 25-50 WL admit spots seem kind of low as I heard anecdotal evidence that the movement from HLS WL is rather sizable. The WL-admits from last year's Harvard wait-list thread seem to approach 20, I could be wrong though.

Especially since the FB group is run by HLS Admissions, I feel like almost all accepted students would be in the group at this stage of the cycle. I think the number would dwindle once students start accepting other schools (YS, scholarships at other T14) - but at this point I feel like the ~360 is a good starting estimate of accepted students.

So my guess is ~400 JS2's have been given out.

...granted I'm probably just trying to justify it being less so there's more JS2's left to go around

[lawschool22]

I heard that admitted students would be given the link to FB group shortly after they are admitted. Sorry if this is a non-issue, but I just cannot reconcile the 360 or so people in the current FB group to your estimate of 617 JS2s. 25-50 WL admit spots seem kind of low as I heard anecdotal evidence that the movement from HLS WL is rather sizable. The WL-admits from last year's Harvard wait-list thread seem to approach 20, I could be wrong though.

Especially since the FB group is run by HLS Admissions, I feel like almost all accepted students would be in the group at this stage of the cycle. I think the number would dwindle once students start accepting other schools (YS, scholarships at other T14) - but at this point I feel like the ~360 is a good starting estimate of accepted students.

So my guess is ~400 JS2's have been given out.

...granted I'm probably just trying to justify it being less so there's more JS2's left to go around

This is too low. As I mentioned earlier, 617 is probably a bit high, but I really don't think it's much lower than 550. Look how many have been admitted per LSN, divide that into 400, and tell me what percentage that is. You'll see it's way too high.

[lawschool22]

My calc did not take into consideration the WL but that's because it's impossible with the data we have. We know how many WL->admits there were per LSN, but we don't know how many there were total per Harvard. So you can't calculate a percentage of total WL that LSN represents like you can for rejections or total admits. Unfortunately this is the best metric we have.

If you could do this I don't think it would make you worry much. The likely thing that would happen is the percentage of pure admits that LSN represents would increase (people are more likely to update LSN if they get admitted now than if they get in late off the wait lost). What this means is the current projected admits would actually go down. But then we would add the caveat that some of the remaining seats would be saved for WL admits.

What I would guess is that there are around 225 spots left between now and may 1, and then there are another 25-50 WL admit spots. This is because my 617 estimate is likely a touch high because of the WL issue as you describe. But what I like is that this estimate is conservatively high, rather than the other way around.

I heard that admitted students would be given the link to FB group shortly after they are admitted. Sorry if this is a non-issue, but I just cannot reconcile the 360 or so people in the current FB group to your estimate of 617 JS2s. 25-50 WL admit spots seem kind of low as I heard anecdotal evidence that the movement from HLS WL is rather sizable. The WL-admits from last year's Harvard wait-list thread seem to approach 20, I could be wrong though.

I guess either way, we both project about 200 JS2s left before May, the only difference is how much movement we can expect after WL. The distinction between WL-admit and direct admit is rather important to me because I really need the latter. Oh welp back to my depression.

As I mentioned a few pages back, there is a somewhat different strategy this year. HLS got burned by some late SLS wait list moves, and they generally just want a better idea of what the class will be sooner. There will be WL activity, but I don't think it will be as much as last year. I also think your estimate of 250 WL-> admits is way too high. There is no way that nearly half of the class came in off the wait list.

Also I don't know where you got this but I don't think there will be 200 JS2's left after May 1.

[lawschool22]

One last point. This is all obviously speculation, but I'm at least trying to base my numbers on LSN data and past history. I welcome any other projections, but please try and base it off numbers instead of "I just feel like there have to be xxx JS2s left"

[sup_stan]

My calc did not take into consideration the WL but that's because it's impossible with the data we have. We know how many WL->admits there were per LSN, but we don't know how many there were total per Harvard. So you can't calculate a percentage of total WL that LSN represents like you can for rejections or total admits. Unfortunately this is the best metric we have.

If you could do this I don't think it would make you worry much. The likely thing that would happen is the percentage of pure admits that LSN represents would increase (people are more likely to update LSN if they get admitted now than if they get in late off the wait lost). What this means is the current projected admits would actually go down. But then we would add the caveat that some of the remaining seats would be saved for WL admits.

What I would guess is that there are around 225 spots left between now and may 1, and then there are another 25-50 WL admit spots. This is because my 617 estimate is likely a touch high because of the WL issue as you describe. But what I like is that this estimate is conservatively high, rather than the other way around.

I heard that admitted students would be given the link to FB group shortly after they are admitted. Sorry if this is a non-issue, but I just cannot reconcile the 360 or so people in the current FB group to your estimate of 617 JS2s. 25-50 WL admit spots seem kind of low as I heard anecdotal evidence that the movement from HLS WL is rather sizable. The WL-admits from last year's Harvard wait-list thread seem to approach 20, I could be wrong though.

I guess either way, we both project about 200 JS2s left before May, the only difference is how much movement we can expect after WL. The distinction between WL-admit and direct admit is rather important to me because I really need the latter. Oh welp back to my depression.

As I mentioned a few pages back, there is a somewhat different strategy this year. HLS got burned by some late SLS wait list moves, and they generally just want a better idea of what the class will be sooner. There will be WL activity, but I don't think it will be as much as last year. I also think your estimate of 250 WL-> admits is way too high. There is no way that nearly half of the class came in off the wait list.

Also I don't know where you got this but I don't think there will be 200 JS2's left after May 1.

I said before before May, not after. I just don't think straight-out giving almost all of the 850 offers before May is a wise practice given the unpredictability of withdrawals/deferrals. The 250 WL-admit assumption depends on whether the total offers handed out will indeed be 850. If it turns out that SLS, YLS, and other T-14 do not manage to steal as many students from HLS post-deposit deadline, then HLS would in turn not need to admit as many off the WL, making both the total number of admits and the number of WL-admits drop.

[lawschool22]

I never said they were going to give out all 850 before May. Not sure what your point is, I get the concept of the WL and using that to manage class size. I think our only point of disagreement is about the number of the 850 that will come from the wait list. All I'm saying is we can't really know that. 200 is too high, 25 is probably too low. Where it ends up in between is anyone's guess. My projections are based on the most relevant data we have. We can't really do much more than that other than speculate.