Harvard, C/O 2017, Applicants Thread (2013-2014) Forum

[drawstring]

Well, it would roughly mean take the number of TLS acceptances and third them. It seems like that would be more than 20, but maybe not.

[luckystar84]

deleted

[lawschool22]

Ya, I'm not liking that extended deadline, though it seems like they'd have to rush decisions or just dump a bunch of the JS1.5s on the waitlist if they wait until scores come out to look at those files again.

I've looked at a bit of data from last cycle, and on Feb 20th there were JS2s for about 4-5 people who had been waiting since October-December and IIRC were below one median and just below another. There were a couple more in March and April before the waitlists came out, but not as many. Obviously this year has been different, especially with the extended deadline.

As we progress into March we need to start to become more and more realistic about our chances. I think, based on various pieces of info I'm considering, that they have accepted somewhere on the order of 550-600 people. That only leaves about 250-300 spots. Maybe 50 or so will come from the WL. So they need to accept about 200-250 between now and May 1. If TLS is 10% of the applicant pool, we may only see another 20ish people on TLS get accepted between now and May 1.

But TLS is not a representative sample and I would think the acceptance rate among TLSers should be much higher than the general applicants, no?

Yeah potentially, I'm just saying in the past the acceptances per LSN have equaled ~13% of total accepted applicants, and TLS is thought to be a bit less than that. I would think that rate would take into account the non-representative nature of TLS but I could be thinking about it incorrectly.

[chneyo]

...

[Quest4Knowledge]

As we progress into March we need to start to become more and more realistic about our chances. I think, based on various pieces of info I'm considering, that they have accepted somewhere on the order of 550-600 people. That only leaves about 250-300 spots. Maybe 50 or so will come from the WL. So they need to accept about 200-250 between now and May 1. If TLS is 10% of the applicant pool, we may only see another 20ish people on TLS get accepted between now and May 1.

Mind roughly sharing how you came to that 550-600?

My estimate is roughly 450, but that's just a guess based on the Facebook group (~350).

[selden]

All of this is great, but I really think you guys are missing something...

This year's TLS Harvard thread is off the chain and entirely unrepresentative of all who have gone before. We've got LS22, BBKK, Mort the Tort, Koala, Scoobers, Kershka, and too many more to name. I mean, getting in is what we do. So, sorry to the thousands still waiting that aren't on TLS, because, let's face it, we're taking those 250 open spots.

Yeah, exactly. I heard if you send in an LOCI with your TLS username and they see you've posted ITT more than 10 times you're auto-admitted with a Top Law Fellowship for 50% of tuition.

[Quest4Knowledge]

Yeah potentially, I'm just saying in the past the acceptances per LSN have equaled ~13% of total accepted applicants, and TLS is thought to be a bit less than that. I would think that rate would take into account the non-representative nature of TLS but I could be thinking about it incorrectly.

Uh oh, if ~13% is accurate this cycle on LSN, with 95 acceptances reported, we're looking at roughly 730 acceptances so far.

I'm hoping for all of us that this year LSN represents a much larger proportion of the acceptance pool.

EDIT: 95 is a bit high, see LS22's post below for a likely more accurate estimation.

[lawschool22]

As we progress into March we need to start to become more and more realistic about our chances. I think, based on various pieces of info I'm considering, that they have accepted somewhere on the order of 550-600 people. That only leaves about 250-300 spots. Maybe 50 or so will come from the WL. So they need to accept about 200-250 between now and May 1. If TLS is 10% of the applicant pool, we may only see another 20ish people on TLS get accepted between now and May 1.

Mind roughly sharing how you came to that 550-600?

My estimate is roughly 450, but that's just a guess based on the Facebook group (~350).

So far I count about 77 accepted per LSN as of today (only counted those who provided dates). Using the three-year LSN average of LSN Applicants Accepted / Total Applicants Accepted, I get 77/13.5% = 570 extrapolated applicants accepted.

I also have some other "squishy" information that strengthens my confidence in this number.

[lawschool22]

Yeah potentially, I'm just saying in the past the acceptances per LSN have equaled ~13% of total accepted applicants, and TLS is thought to be a bit less than that. I would think that rate would take into account the non-representative nature of TLS but I could be thinking about it incorrectly.

Uh oh, if ~13% is accurate this cycle on LSN, with 95 acceptances reported, we're looking at roughly 730 acceptances so far.

I'm hoping for all of us that this year LSN represents a much larger proportion of the acceptance pool.

I only used the people who have provided dates when calculating that percentage, so you would want to do the same when coming to your other number. See my above post.

[luckystar84]

deleted

[Quest4Knowledge]

Yeah potentially, I'm just saying in the past the acceptances per LSN have equaled ~13% of total accepted applicants, and TLS is thought to be a bit less than that. I would think that rate would take into account the non-representative nature of TLS but I could be thinking about it incorrectly.

Uh oh, if ~13% is accurate this cycle on LSN, with 95 acceptances reported, we're looking at roughly 730 acceptances so far.

I'm hoping for all of us that this year LSN represents a much larger proportion of the acceptance pool.

I only used the people who have provided dates when calculating that percentage, so you would want to do the same when coming to your other number. See my above post.

Ah okay, yeah I didn't get rid of people who didn't provide dates - that probably makes up for the difference.

Stressful to think about...

[lawschool22]

Yeah potentially, I'm just saying in the past the acceptances per LSN have equaled ~13% of total accepted applicants, and TLS is thought to be a bit less than that. I would think that rate would take into account the non-representative nature of TLS but I could be thinking about it incorrectly.

Uh oh, if ~13% is accurate this cycle on LSN, with 95 acceptances reported, we're looking at roughly 730 acceptances so far.

I'm hoping for all of us that this year LSN represents a much larger proportion of the acceptance pool.

I only used the people who have provided dates when calculating that percentage, so you would want to do the same when coming to your other number. See my above post.

Ah okay, yeah I didn't get rid of people who didn't provide dates - that probably makes up for the difference.

Stressful to think about...

The bottom line is they have probably accepted anywhere from 55% to 70% of the total they will ultimately accept. But this makes sense when you consider that they have been accepting people since November, it's mid-Feburary, and they will have the bulk of it finished by mid-to-late April. So they are about 3/5 of the way through the cycle. It make sense they would be 3/5 (give or take) through their admit decisions.

Don't fret. I also project they have rejected around 2,800 applicants. So you could be in that group

[kershka]

But TLS is not a representative sample and I would think the acceptance rate among TLSers should be much higher than the general applicants, no?

Yeah potentially, I'm just saying in the past the acceptances per LSN have equaled ~13% of total accepted applicants, and TLS is thought to be a bit less than that. I would think that rate would take into account the non-representative nature of TLS but I could be thinking about it incorrectly.

All of this is great, but I really think you guys are missing something...

This year's TLS Harvard thread is off the chain and entirely unrepresentative of all who have gone before. We've got LS22, BBKK, Mort the Tort, Koala, Scoobers, Kershka, and too many more to name. I mean, getting in is what we do. So, sorry to the thousands still waiting that aren't on TLS, because, let's face it, we're taking those 250 open spots.

[MrMileyCyrus]

When was the last JS2 day? Friday the 7th? Aka we're crazy overdue for another one?

[Quest4Knowledge]

When was the last JS2 day? Friday the 7th? Aka we're crazy overdue for another one?

That seems to be correct!

I can't post pictures yet but in the OP of this thread, there's a graph showing decision dates from past cycles. Looks like 3rd week of February had a LOT of movement. Granted this cycle has been different, but still.

[Black_Swan]

When is HLS ASW? And what is the timeline between interview and acceptance call?

[selden]

When is HLS ASW? And what is the timeline between interview and acceptance call?

The JS1 -> JS2 gap is variable but seems to generally be 40 days or less. However, as we move to having a higher concentration of "bubble" candidates and waitlisting, I would expect that number of increase.

[truckstop]

Don't fret. I also project they have rejected around 2,800 applicants. So you could be in that group

I'm curious about how you reached that estimate. I fully support your conclusion, though--I'm definitely okay with having somehow survived that many rejections so far

[a.sleepyhead]

When was the last JS2 day? Friday the 7th? Aka we're crazy overdue for another one?

That seems to be correct!

I can't post pictures yet but in the OP of this thread, there's a graph showing decision dates from past cycles. Looks like 3rd week of February had a LOT of movement. Granted this cycle has been different, but still.

Yeah, there seems to be consensus ITT that the extended app deadline could push that "big decision week" back a couple weeks

[Black_Swan]

When is HLS ASW? And what is the timeline between interview and acceptance call?

The JS1 -> JS2 gap is variable but seems to generally be 40 days or less. However, as we move to having a higher concentration of "bubble" candidates and waitlisting, I would expect that number of increase.

Awesome! What about admitted students week? Would a close date prompt faster turnaround time?

[lawschool22]

Don't fret. I also project they have rejected around 2,800 applicants. So you could be in that group

I'm curious about how you reached that estimate. I fully support your conclusion, though--I'm definitely okay with having somehow survived that many rejections so far

Last year LSN showed 74 total rejections. There were 4,627 actual rejections (5,485 applicants - 858 offers) last year. This means LSN represented about 1.60% of all rejections (74 / 4,627 = 1.60%). So far there are 44 rejections (w/ dates) showing on LSN this cycle (might be even higher, I haven't gone back to check some of the earlier weeks). So you take 44 / 1.60% = 2,751.

[truckstop]

Don't fret. I also project they have rejected around 2,800 applicants. So you could be in that group

I'm curious about how you reached that estimate. I fully support your conclusion, though--I'm definitely okay with having somehow survived that many rejections so far

Last year LSN showed 74 total rejections. There were 4,627 actual rejections (5,485 applicants - 858 offers) last year. This means LSN represented about 1.60% of all rejections (74 / 4,627 = 1.60%). So far there are 44 rejections (w/ dates) showing on LSN this cycle (might be even higher, I haven't gone back to check some of the earlier weeks). So you take 44 / 1.60% = 2,751.

Thanks! I'm glad there are people who will calculate things like this to make us feel (maybe? hopefully?) a little better.

[LEPWU]

Hey you guys! I was dinged long ago but still enjoy keeping tabs on this thread, wishing you all the best, hoping for JS1s and JS2s for everyone still waiting so anxiously...

Quick question: anyone know where scoobers has been? (It's crazy how reading these threads for MONTHS ON END, even as a for-the-most-part-lurker, can make a TLSer feel like part of a real community.) Anyways, when such a "familiar face" like scoobers falls off the radar screen I get worried! Scoobers: you out there? You OK?

[FuriousDuck]

...

[yomisterd]

So, nobody got JS1s today? Been 20 days, 7 days over average for my numbers according to the almighty spreadsheet.