Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017) Forum

[Smc1994]

Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy

I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol

Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.

It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)

If it was a brand new account created after a js2 then what is the "hopeful" part of the username? Smells fishy to me...

That fish smell is almost certainly emanating from the river. Where we should dunk him. I already got the rope, rocks, chair, and pulley, guys...

[dddddd90]

Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.

But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.

Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...

I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.

Yeah, I would say that's true. I'd say maybe like 10% of rejections haven't happened yet.

The trends from prior years have not necessarily held this year. I think we're extrapolating from incomplete data. I encourage optimism in this process, but let's not speculate without basis. I think our resident data analyst, Pozzo, is on a flight today, and, without him, I think we MUST forsake trend analysis in favor of childlike hope.

LOLd +1

[forum_user]

Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy

I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol

Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.

It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)

If it was a brand new account created after a js2 then what is the "hopeful" part of the username? Smells fishy to me...

tbh whose first priority immediately upon getting into Harvard is to post about it on the internet--and creating an account just to do so no less? Like surely you at least want to tell your mom first, right?

[appind]

Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.

But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.

Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...

I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.

Yeah, I would say that's true. I'd say maybe like 10% of rejections haven't happened yet.

The trends from prior years have not necessarily held this year. I think we're extrapolating from incomplete data. I encourage optimism in this process, but let's not speculate without basis. I think our resident data analyst, Pozzo, is on a flight today, and, without him, I think we MUST forsake trend analysis in favor of childlike hope.

Someone had posted that fb group has 350 people. Comparing that with 600 people on FB at last year cycle's end, it means that around 350 × 3/2 = 475 js2 have been given. That makes around 425 js2 remaining.

Last week someone reported 20 open intvw slots. So
week of 3/6 JS1: 20

Any data based on previous opened interview slots as to how many js1 been given so far?

[Pozzo]

Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.

But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.

Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...

I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.

Yeah, I would say that's true. I'd say maybe like 10% of rejections haven't happened yet.

The trends from prior years have not necessarily held this year. I think we're extrapolating from incomplete data. I encourage optimism in this process, but let's not speculate without basis. I think our resident data analyst, Pozzo, is on a flight today, and, without him, I think we MUST forsake trend analysis in favor of childlike hope.

LOLd +1

Gah, I wish I was on a plane today. It doesn't matter, though.

Data is dead. All that remain are hope and despair. The choice is yours.

[Kinch08]

Someone had posted that fb group has 350 people. Comparing that with 600 people on FB at last year cycle's end, it means that around 350 × 3/2 = 475 js2 have been given. That makes around 425 js2 remaining.

Last week someone reported 20 open intvw slots. So
week of 3/6 JS1: 20

Any data based on previous opened interview slots as to how many js1 been given so far?

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

[nimbus cloud]

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

Class of 2019:
Number of Admission Offers: 908

[Smc1994]

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.

Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...

I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.

Yeah, I would say that's true. I'd say maybe like 10% of rejections haven't happened yet.

The trends from prior years have not necessarily held this year. I think we're extrapolating from incomplete data. I encourage optimism in this process, but let's not speculate without basis. I think our resident data analyst, Pozzo, is on a flight today, and, without him, I think we MUST forsake trend analysis in favor of childlike hope.

LOLd +1

Gah, I wish I was on a plane today. It doesn't matter, though.

Data is dead. All that remain are hope and despair. The choice is yours.

Okay, I choose cake.

[Kinch08]

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

Class of 2019:
Number of Admission Offers: 908

So ~900 JS2's means ~1200 JS1's, so yeah, I guess we go with my second number.

[VapidP]

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

Class of 2019:
Number of Admission Offers: 908

So ~900 JS2's means ~1200 JS1's, so yeah, I guess we go with my second number.

I've also heard that they don't necessarily give out 1200 JS1's. My friend from Harvard said that they stop giving out JS1s once they have 800ish JS2s or something.

[Kinch08]

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

Class of 2019:
Number of Admission Offers: 908

So ~900 JS2's means ~1200 JS1's, so yeah, I guess we go with my second number.

I've also heard that they don't necessarily give out 1200 JS1's. My friend from Harvard said that they stop giving out JS1s once they have 800ish JS2s or something.

I think the numbers are big enough and the changes in incentives from year to year are small enough that the ratio of JS1's to JS2's is not going to change dramatically year to year. So if that ratio is roughly 1:.75 one year (as it has been in the past, I believe), it's likely to be roughly the same this year.

Which isn't to say that your friend is wrong. I'd believe that they cap based on JS2's, not JS1's.

[appind]

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

Class of 2019:
Number of Admission Offers: 908

So ~900 JS2's means ~1200 JS1's, so yeah, I guess we go with my second number.

I've also heard that they don't necessarily give out 1200 JS1's. My friend from Harvard said that they stop giving out JS1s once they have 800ish JS2s or something.

I think the numbers are big enough and the changes in incentives from year to year are small enough that the ratio of JS1's to JS2's is not going to change dramatically year to year. So if that ratio is roughly 1:.75 one year (as it has been in the past, I believe), it's likely to be roughly the same this year.

Which isn't to say that your friend is wrong. I'd believe that they cap based on JS2's, not JS1's.

These are all reconcilable statements. Around 30% of the class gets in from WL. So around 200 js2 will be from WL.
That means they do around 1000 JS1s.

Looking at data from class of 2018 thread, 750 JS1 were handed out by this time 2 years ago. Combined with 20 slots from last week, we have had 770 JS1s.

So my projection is that there are 230 JS1s still pending.

[Kinch08]

The assumption based on C/O 2019 data (which might not hold) is that there are at most one or two JS1 waves remaining. Possibly none. But who knows? There've been a lot of very small JS1 waves this year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they kept trickling in. Regardless, I'd say that it's almost certain that more than 800 of the ~1000 (or is it like ~1200? I forget) JS1's have been given out

but I'm also the guy who was gonna give 4:1 on a JS2 wave today, so don't listen to me.

Class of 2019:
Number of Admission Offers: 908

So ~900 JS2's means ~1200 JS1's, so yeah, I guess we go with my second number.

I've also heard that they don't necessarily give out 1200 JS1's. My friend from Harvard said that they stop giving out JS1s once they have 800ish JS2s or something.

I think the numbers are big enough and the changes in incentives from year to year are small enough that the ratio of JS1's to JS2's is not going to change dramatically year to year. So if that ratio is roughly 1:.75 one year (as it has been in the past, I believe), it's likely to be roughly the same this year.

Which isn't to say that your friend is wrong. I'd believe that they cap based on JS2's, not JS1's.

These are all reconcilable statements. Around 30% of the class gets in from WL. So around 200 js2 will be from WL.
That means they do around 1000 JS1s.

Looking at data from class of 2018 thread, 750 JS1 were handed out by this time 2 years ago. Combined with 20 slots from last week, we have had 770 JS1s.

So my projection is that there are 230 JS1s still pending.

Technically, those 200 JS2's from the WL will all go through JS1's before being admitted, so the total number of JS1's will still be around 1200. I don't think we know how many JS1's from WL end up not receiving JS2's (I hope not many; it would suck to have your hopes raised and dashed like that), so the numbers you give will change based on that. But your point is taken.

[hellohalo]

These are all reconcilable statements. Around 30% of the class gets in from WL. So around 200 js2 will be from WL.
That means they do around 1000 JS1s.

Looking at data from class of 2018 thread, 750 JS1 were handed out by this time 2 years ago. Combined with 20 slots from last week, we have had 770 JS1s.

So my projection is that there are 230 JS1s still pending.

So many?! Is 30% normal to all law schools? Curious.

[appind]

Revised Estimates:

475 JS2 given so far
770 JS1 given so far

325 JS2 (converts from js1 w/o WL) remaining
100 JS2 (converts from WL w/o initial js1) remaining
425 JS2 total remaining

330 JS1 remaining
100 WL->interview remaining

based on above I think a big wave of about 125 JS2s should be there soon.

[dyebri]

Revised Estimates:

475 JS2 given so far
770 JS1 given so far

375 JS2 (converts from js1 w/o WL) remaining
100 JS2 (converts from WL w/o initial js1) remaining
475 JS2 total remaining

330 JS1 remaining
100 WL->interview remaining

based on above I think a big wave of about 125 JS2s shold be soon.

I have no idea why you guys bother trying to speculate when you have not one piece of information. Just relax. The day is over for JS2 and JS1s. We won't know till tommorow

[dietcoke1]

this thread rn

[Kinch08]

These are all reconcilable statements. Around 30% of the class gets in from WL. So around 200 js2 will be from WL.
That means they do around 1000 JS1s.

Looking at data from class of 2018 thread, 750 JS1 were handed out by this time 2 years ago. Combined with 20 slots from last week, we have had 770 JS1s.

So my projection is that there are 230 JS1s still pending.

So many?! Is 30% normal to all law schools? Curious.

The other day I saw a thread which claimed that between 20 and 25% of the people who were waitlisted in the C/0 2019 eventually made it in off of the waitlist. If 30% of the class was made up of waitlisted students like Appind says, that would mean that 800-1000 applicants were waitlisted. I can't find that thread now, although I've looked for it a little bit; does anyone who knows what I'm talking about want to link us so we can clear this up?

RE people who want us to stop talking about angels and pinheads: Your dastardly efforts to prevent us from reaching the sacred 180 before the fast-approaching deadline will not succeed.

[appind]

Technically, those 200 JS2's from the WL will all go through JS1's before being admitted, so the total number of JS1's will still be around 1200. I don't think we know how many JS1's from WL end up not receiving JS2's (I hope not many; it would suck to have your hopes raised and dashed like that), so the numbers you give will change based on that. But your point is taken.

I think the nomenclature has been to call those who interview off WL something other than js1. I think they are called JSb.
The 30% figure is from a past year's thread.

[Kinch08]

http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 5#p7508095

That's the post I was talking about, if anyone's interested. 23% of waitlisted HLS students (roughly, going off of LSN reported numbers) who remain on the waitlist make it in. And apparently 30% of the class is drawn from that 23%. So yeah, if that's all kosher, roughly 800 of us are going to get WL'd, with or without a JS1.

[unrelated]

http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 5#p7508095

That's the post I was talking about, if anyone's interested. 23% of waitlisted HLS students (roughly, going off of LSN reported numbers) who remain on the waitlist make it in. And apparently 30% of the class is drawn from that 23%. So yeah, if that's all kosher, roughly 800 of us are going to get WL'd, with or without a JS1.

I don't think LSN is a very good source to make total applicant pool projections, but I like the distraction.

[tartan2016]

Technically, those 200 JS2's from the WL will all go through JS1's before being admitted, so the total number of JS1's will still be around 1200. I don't think we know how many JS1's from WL end up not receiving JS2's (I hope not many; it would suck to have your hopes raised and dashed like that), so the numbers you give will change based on that. But your point is taken.

I think the nomenclature has been to call those who interview off WL something other than js1. I think they are called JSb.
The 30% figure is from a past year's thread.

So does the ~900 admits include those pulled off the waitlist?

[bettyboopydoop]

so if I haven't gone JS1 but also haven't been rejected, I'll probably be waitlisted? Thoughts on writing a LOCI now?

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy

I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol

Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.

It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)

If it was a brand new account created after a js2 then what is the "hopeful" part of the username? Smells fishy to me...

tbh whose first priority immediately upon getting into Harvard is to post about it on the internet--and creating an account just to do so no less? Like surely you at least want to tell your mom first, right?

I mean, I'd tell y'all first, but not if I had to make an account to do it

[calpolisci2016]

Is tomorrow a snow/WFH day too?