you can find me at www.top-law-schools.com! Forum

[Bust3453]

Why March 16?

Because if St. Patrick's Day comes around and we haven't received our decisions yet, we might all just drink ourselves into oblivion.

[w0w]

Why March 16?

That's 6 months from my submit date.

[luo]

Given that Harvard has been withholding offers for almost a month and that there is a ASW coming up very soon, I feel the urge to propose the following theory: their first ASW on March 7 has been oversubscribed and they don't want to admit more students until after the first ASW in order to avoid a messy situation where more admitted students show up for ASW than they can possibly accommodate.

Hence those of us who are anxiously checking our phones every 30 seconds for the past several weeks can relax our nerves a bit for another two weeks or so knowing that the call will not come until March 9 the earliest.

[LawBron James]

Given that Harvard has been withholding offers for almost a month and that there is a ASW coming up very soon, I feel the urge to propose the following theory: their first ASW on March 7 has been oversubscribed and they don't want to admit more students until after the first ASW in order to avoid a messy situation where more admitted students show up for ASW than they can possibly accommodate.

Hence those of us who are anxiously checking our phones every 30 seconds for the past several weeks can relax our nerves a bit for another two weeks or so knowing that the call will not come until March 9 the earliest.

Yeah, I don't think the thought that we wont hear anything for at least another 2 more weeks is going to ease too much of the tension in here.

[whosinthehousejc]

Given that Harvard has been withholding offers for almost a month and that there is a ASW coming up very soon, I feel the urge to propose the following theory: their first ASW on March 7 has been oversubscribed and they don't want to admit more students until after the first ASW in order to avoid a messy situation where more admitted students show up for ASW than they can possibly accommodate.

Hence those of us who are anxiously checking our phones every 30 seconds for the past several weeks can relax our nerves a bit for another two weeks or so knowing that the call will not come until March 9 the earliest.

Assuming TLS participation is the about the same as last year, this doesn't hold up. 25% fewer admits this year than at the same point in the cycle last year. I think it's more likely that they're having to do some serious number juggling due to low #s of 170+ apps, and that, combined with the admin snow days over the last few weeks is pushing them back farther than they were last year at the some point in the cycle.

I have a feeling we'll see JS2s next week, as several JS1 interviewers suggested ("late Feb or first week of March").

[w0w]

Given that Harvard has been withholding offers for almost a month and that there is a ASW coming up very soon, I feel the urge to propose the following theory: their first ASW on March 7 has been oversubscribed and they don't want to admit more students until after the first ASW in order to avoid a messy situation where more admitted students show up for ASW than they can possibly accommodate.

Hence those of us who are anxiously checking our phones every 30 seconds for the past several weeks can relax our nerves a bit for another two weeks or so knowing that the call will not come until March 9 the earliest.

Assuming TLS participation is the about the same as last year, this doesn't hold up. 25% fewer admits this year than at the same point in the cycle last year. I think it's more likely that they're having to do some serious number juggling due to low #s of 170+ apps, and that, combined with the admin snow days over the last few weeks is pushing them back farther than they were last year at the some point in the cycle.

I have a feeling we'll see JS2s next week, as several JS1 interviewers suggested ("late Feb or first week of March").

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

[Auxilio]

Given that Harvard has been withholding offers for almost a month and that there is a ASW coming up very soon, I feel the urge to propose the following theory: their first ASW on March 7 has been oversubscribed and they don't want to admit more students until after the first ASW in order to avoid a messy situation where more admitted students show up for ASW than they can possibly accommodate.

Hence those of us who are anxiously checking our phones every 30 seconds for the past several weeks can relax our nerves a bit for another two weeks or so knowing that the call will not come until March 9 the earliest.

Assuming TLS participation is the about the same as last year, this doesn't hold up. 25% fewer admits this year than at the same point in the cycle last year. I think it's more likely that they're having to do some serious number juggling due to low #s of 170+ apps, and that, combined with the admin snow days over the last few weeks is pushing them back farther than they were last year at the some point in the cycle.

I have a feeling we'll see JS2s next week, as several JS1 interviewers suggested ("late Feb or first week of March").

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

[RustyRyan]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

Dean Spivey has a blog that could help: http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/projec ... ons-cycle/

I don't think it will answer your question entirely (nobody can, you need to account for too many unknown stats), but the takeaway is:

It will be close, and it is VERY likely that there will be LSAT drops in the T14. Harvard is so high up that they might make it through (and remember, Harvard's numbers have never been built on a house of financial aid to maintain yeild), but it won't be by a lot.

Though if applicant numbers keep dropping, and nothing in the USNWR rankings change, the lack of merit aid could hurt Harvard's yield as high LSAT students get absolutely bribed by CCN and the rest of the T-14.

[w0w]

Given that Harvard has been withholding offers for almost a month and that there is a ASW coming up very soon, I feel the urge to propose the following theory: their first ASW on March 7 has been oversubscribed and they don't want to admit more students until after the first ASW in order to avoid a messy situation where more admitted students show up for ASW than they can possibly accommodate.

Hence those of us who are anxiously checking our phones every 30 seconds for the past several weeks can relax our nerves a bit for another two weeks or so knowing that the call will not come until March 9 the earliest.

Assuming TLS participation is the about the same as last year, this doesn't hold up. 25% fewer admits this year than at the same point in the cycle last year. I think it's more likely that they're having to do some serious number juggling due to low #s of 170+ apps, and that, combined with the admin snow days over the last few weeks is pushing them back farther than they were last year at the some point in the cycle.

I have a feeling we'll see JS2s next week, as several JS1 interviewers suggested ("late Feb or first week of March").

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?

[Mack.Hambleton]

People said this last year and the only median that dropped was GULCs. I highly doubt H goes to 172, they can find ~250 173 plus people

[w0w]

People said this last year and the only median that dropped was GULCs. I highly doubt H goes to 172, they can find ~250 173 plus people

Yeah, they will just have to admit a lot more than 250 because of increased competition. I'm guessing that may even put people like myself at a disadvantage because they will probably admit more 173+ and pull people in the <172 from the waitlisted as time goes on.

[LSCHI]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.[/quote]

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.[/quote]

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?[/quote]
A conservative estimate based on the latest Spivey numbers puts the number of 173+ at ~1000. If we then assume that ~10% of that 1000 have GPAs that are too low to be seriously considered, we are left with 900. Then subtract the 100 minimum that Yale needs to maintain its median and the 45 SLS needs. This brings us to 755. Then let us assume that ~25% of the remaining 755 173+ scorers available select CCN$$$$ or elsewhere. After all that there are ~459 173+ scorers. I may be way off but that seems pretty tight for HLS to maintain

[w0w]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.[/quote]

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?[/quote]
A conservative estimate based on the latest Spivey numbers puts the number of 173+ at ~1000. If we then assume that ~10% of that 1000 have GPAs that are too low to be seriously considered, we are left with 900. Then subtract the 100 minimum that Yale needs to maintain its median and the 45 SLS needs. This brings us to 755. Then let us assume that ~25% of the remaining 755 173+ scorers available select CCN$$$$ or elsewhere. After all that there are ~459 173+ scorers. I may be way off but that seems pretty tight for HLS to maintain[/quote]

And just looking at the numbers it appears that at least a couple hundred in the 170-180 range didn't apply by the feb 1st deadline which means they are not even in the running for many of the top schools. If that 1000 number accounts for that, sorry! But if not, I would subtract out about 75-100 applicants from that list.

[IngmarKurosawa]

Assuming TLS participation is the about the same as last year, this doesn't hold up. 25% fewer admits this year than at the same point in the cycle last year. I think it's more likely that they're having to do some serious number juggling due to low #s of 170+ apps, and that, combined with the admin snow days over the last few weeks is pushing them back farther than they were last year at the some point in the cycle.

I have a feeling we'll see JS2s next week, as several JS1 interviewers suggested ("late Feb or first week of March").

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?

According to Spivey, 1,794 applicants scored between 170-174, and just 452 applicants scored 175+. That puts the total number of 170+ applicants at 2,246. A 170 on the LSAT is about 97.5 percentile. We can use the percentile points to figure out (roughly) how many applicants have at least what score from here.

170+ ... 2,246
172+ ... 1,258
173+ ... 898
175+ ... 452

When you consider that Harvard extends about 900 offers each year, even those with a 172 look to be in relatively good shape when you consider that not everyone with a score in the 170s has a good enough GPA to merit Harvard consideration.

[whosinthehousejc]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?[/quote]
A conservative estimate based on the latest Spivey numbers puts the number of 173+ at ~1000. If we then assume that ~10% of that 1000 have GPAs that are too low to be seriously considered, we are left with 900. Then subtract the 100 minimum that Yale needs to maintain its median and the 45 SLS needs. This brings us to 755. Then let us assume that ~25% of the remaining 755 173+ scorers available select CCN$$$$ or elsewhere. After all that there are ~459 173+ scorers. I may be way off but that seems pretty tight for HLS to maintain[/quote]

And just looking at the numbers it appears that at least a couple hundred in the 170-180 range didn't apply by the feb 1st deadline which means they are not even in the running for many of the top schools. If that 1000 number accounts for that, sorry! But if not, I would subtract out about 75-100 applicants from that list.[/quote]

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but allow me to pick this nit: Late applications stand a far better chance (even at top schools) this year than they have in the past, because the entire cycle has been shifted back thanks to fewer high-quality apps. There's no reason to think high-LSAT candidates who apply late will not receive full and frantic consideration.

[w0w]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?

According to Spivey, 1,794 applicants scored between 170-174, and just 452 applicants scored 175+. That puts the total number of 170+ applicants at 2,246. A 170 on the LSAT is about 97.5 percentile. We can use the percentile points to figure out (roughly) how many applicants have at least what score from here.

170+ ... 2,246
172+ ... 1,258
173+ ... 898
175+ ... 452

When you consider that Harvard extends about 900 offers each year, even those with a 172 look to be in relatively good shape when you consider that not everyone with a score in the 170s has a good enough GPA to merit Harvard consideration.

This is awesome! Thank you.

[w0w]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?

A conservative estimate based on the latest Spivey numbers puts the number of 173+ at ~1000. If we then assume that ~10% of that 1000 have GPAs that are too low to be seriously considered, we are left with 900. Then subtract the 100 minimum that Yale needs to maintain its median and the 45 SLS needs. This brings us to 755. Then let us assume that ~25% of the remaining 755 173+ scorers available select CCN$$$$ or elsewhere. After all that there are ~459 173+ scorers. I may be way off but that seems pretty tight for HLS to maintain[/quote]

And just looking at the numbers it appears that at least a couple hundred in the 170-180 range didn't apply by the feb 1st deadline which means they are not even in the running for many of the top schools. If that 1000 number accounts for that, sorry! But if not, I would subtract out about 75-100 applicants from that list.[/quote]

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but allow me to pick this nit: Late applications stand a far better chance (even at top schools) this year than they have in the past, because the entire cycle has been shifted back thanks to fewer high-quality apps. There's no reason to think high-LSAT candidates who apply late will not receive full and frantic consideration.[/quote]


No, those people could not have applied to many of the top schools because the deadline has passed.

[RSN]

Lot of this analysis was done 20ish pages ago in the thread. The user foles helpfully put together this Google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... b8UqGK4fE/

[IngmarKurosawa]

According to Spivey, 1,794 applicants scored between 170-174, and just 452 applicants scored 175+. That puts the total number of 170+ applicants at 2,246. A 170 on the LSAT is about 97.5 percentile. We can use the percentile points to figure out (roughly) how many applicants have at least what score from here.

170+ ... 2,246
172+ ... 1,258
173+ ... 898
175+ ... 452

When you consider that Harvard extends about 900 offers each year, even those with a 172 look to be in relatively good shape when you consider that not everyone with a score in the 170s has a good enough GPA to merit Harvard consideration.

This is awesome! Thank you.

You're welcome. Someone much better at math than me should probably double-check and/or verify that though. (I studied liberal arts in undergrad....)

Edit: Fixed typo.

[w0w]

Lot of this analysis was done 20ish pages ago in the thread. The user foles helpfully put together this Google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... b8UqGK4fE/

Actually, that was the spreadsheet I was referring to when I was talking about not all 170+ applicants applying by many top schools deadlines.

[whosinthehousejc]

Lot of this analysis was done 20ish pages ago in the thread. The user foles helpfully put together this Google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... b8UqGK4fE/

Word.

[asdfrewa]

If we assume that 175-180 applicants actually make up .5% of the pool, then .1%=94.8

178-180=94.8
177=94.8
176=94.8
175=189.6

175-180=474

174=189.6
173=379.2
172=284.4
171=474
170=663.6

170-174=1990.8

If we assume that 170-174 applicants make up 2.1% of the pool, then .1%=81.762

178-180=81.762
177=81.762
176=81.762
175=163.524

175-180=408.81

174=163.524
173=327.048
172=245.286
171=408.81
170=572.334

170-174=1717.002

Neither estimate is perfect, but I think it's the best we can do.

[RSN]

Anyone interested in total applicant numbers should also check out LSAC's three year reporting: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

We're now on track for about 47,300 applicants this cycle, which if I'm not mistaken would be a 13% drop over last year.

ETA: Actually, weird, since I was looking at that page earlier they seem to have changed the percentage of total applicants they had at this point last year from 72 to 66. That or I'm going crazy. Projected applicant total is ~51,650.

[tk17]

If we then assume that ~10% of that 1000 have GPAs that are too low to be seriously considered...

#Iamthe10percent

Still hanging around and hoping though.... Cause you know, anxiety is fun.

[DiniMae]

Has anyone run some kind of speculative equation of the likelyhood of HLS's LSAT median dropping to 172 this year based on total applicants over 170? I'm bad at math but I know some of you are not.

I have done some rough figures, but unless a lot more people with 173's than I thought go to lower than top 10, most of the HYSCCN should come close to maintaining there median barely, IF at least one school with a larger class (probably Columbia in my mind to be honest) is building a class with with a -1 on their median. If they all fight it out I could easily see a couple schools dropping a point. This is assuming class sizes remain more or less the same.

I think Harvard is potentially very vulnerable for a couple reasons. Firstly, they are a bigger class so unless they drop class size it might be harder for them to find the numbers than their ~200 class size peers. Second, them not offering merit aid might make CCN (or lower) increasingly more attractive to applicants who are getting bombarded with debt aversion.

This is all very very unreliable though, more personal musings with an excel sheet.

I think this is probably all pretty good speculation. I am rooting for a drop bc that will make my 172 a lot more attractive. I know we have the numbers for how many applicants were in the 170-174 range but I would really like to know what the difference is in 174 applicants Is vs say 171 or 170 applicants I'm sure the numbers for 170 and 171 are larger but I wonder by how much. Has anyone seen that data somewhere or are there numbers for past years that we can project from?

A conservative estimate based on the latest Spivey numbers puts the number of 173+ at ~1000. If we then assume that ~10% of that 1000 have GPAs that are too low to be seriously considered, we are left with 900. Then subtract the 100 minimum that Yale needs to maintain its median and the 45 SLS needs. This brings us to 755. Then let us assume that ~25% of the remaining 755 173+ scorers available select CCN$$$$ or elsewhere. After all that there are ~459 173+ scorers. I may be way off but that seems pretty tight for HLS to maintain

And just looking at the numbers it appears that at least a couple hundred in the 170-180 range didn't apply by the feb 1st deadline which means they are not even in the running for many of the top schools. If that 1000 number accounts for that, sorry! But if not, I would subtract out about 75-100 applicants from that list.[/quote]

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but allow me to pick this nit: Late applications stand a far better chance (even at top schools) this year than they have in the past, because the entire cycle has been shifted back thanks to fewer high-quality apps. There's no reason to think high-LSAT candidates who apply late will not receive full and frantic consideration.[/quote]


No, those people could not have applied to many of the top schools because the deadline has passed.[/quote]
I don't know if this is helpful to the overall analysis, but HLS's FAQ says that only applicants who apply by the Feb deadline will receive guaranteed consideration for admission. It doesn't say that all others won't. Furthermore it states that not everyone uses the LSAC Application form. I think one can imply that late people may be considered, but there isn't a guarantee. ((One of you LR gurus can correct my logic ))