Harvard, C/O 2017, Applicants Thread (2013-2014) Forum

[midwest17]

Just got off a 5 hour flight. All I wanted was to have a JS1 when I turned my phone back on. No luck.

[edwardt1988]

4 months in but we're not anywhere close to 2/3rds of the way through. They start accepting apps in Sept but don't start reviewing until mid Oct. then you figure there's a 2 week gap between invite and JS1. So a better way to look at it is that so far we've spanned the Oct 15<->Dec 10 interviews. Which is two months. Dunno if applications are frontloaded or backloaded but they conduct JS1s well into Mar/Apr so there's still late Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, early Apr. or 4 months of JS1s to go through. so if anything they're probably 33-40% the way through, and 45%+ isn't a comforting figure to look at for those who are still waiting

This is assuming constant volume, which is most likely false. I'd say they've received about half their applications already, and given about 40% of their decision. They're pretty much on track. Everyone needs to stop fretting. It's Christmas, enjoy

well there's -receiving- half your applications and then there's getting to JS1 half your potential admittees. if you think they've already done 600 JS1s...

139 FBers, maybe 180-200 total JS2s, so 400 JS1s or 33% is a generous estimate

working title: what are your chances? go to LSN. But....we cannot extrapolate because LSN doesn't capture X Y Z variables. just an inconsistency there

It's somewhat irrelevant, because I just roughly approximated the numbers. The volume reviewed is possibly higher than 50%. My point is the % of applicants reviewed/ total that will be reviewed is probably not lower than % of acceptances/out of total acceptances that will be sent. That's they type of thing that would freak people out, because it would indicate that moving forward, proportionally, they are fighting for a lower number of seats, which means they have a lower chance to get in. That line of thinking is extrapolated completely from LSN which makes it unreliable at the present time. So no need to worry yet lawschool22

[prospect2014]

well part of the fear is quite simply the 40% 45% w.e figure considered in isolation. it's not easy knowing that it's down to e.g., 400 seats left.

but there's also a definitional issue of what "reviewed" means. if it means just receiving the app then that's one thing and maybe it's 50% (or higher than 40%), but it's just implausible that they've done 600 JS1s between Oct 15 and now

[edwardt1988]

well part of the fear is quite simply the 40% 45% w.e figure considered in isolation. it's not easy knowing that it's down to e.g., 400 seats left.

but there's also a definitional issue of what "reviewed" means. if it means just receiving the app then that's one thing and maybe it's 50% (or higher than 40%), but it's just implausible that they've done 600 JS1s between Oct 15 and now

It's also highly unlikey that the extrapolation based on LSN is accurate, so all in all, everyone without a JS2 can enjoy their holiday without being too worried

Edit: Also, take a look at the spreadsheet. There's 100 JS1 reported with about 96 having already taken place and around 90 before the last js1 to js2 date. If we are about 17% of the applicant pool, that's pretty close to 600 js1 having been done already. Again, all this says is that our data on available # of seats vs applicant % is not accurate enough to worry about it

[Mort_the_Tort]

... She's making a JS2 list and checking it twice.
Trying to determine who's been naughty and who's been nice.
She'll write down their names and numbers with care...

[everett2014]

Well, I guess it's not happening today. Happy weekend, y'all.

[elterrible78]

Hey all, just wanted to drop in to quickly clear up the misconception that I was WL --> R. I withdrew when that sweet, sweet scholly money came through from Chicago. I may have ended up being rejected eventually, but we'll never know.

Good luck to you all!

[prospect2014]

well part of the fear is quite simply the 40% 45% w.e figure considered in isolation. it's not easy knowing that it's down to e.g., 400 seats left.

but there's also a definitional issue of what "reviewed" means. if it means just receiving the app then that's one thing and maybe it's 50% (or higher than 40%), but it's just implausible that they've done 600 JS1s between Oct 15 and now

It's also highly unlikey that the extrapolation based on LSN is accurate, so all in all, everyone without a JS2 can enjoy their holiday without being too worried

Edit: Also, take a look at the spreadsheet. There's 100 JS1 reported with about 96 having already taken place and around 90 before the last js1 to js2 date. If we are about 17% of the applicant pool, that's pretty close to 600 js1 having been done already. Again, all this says is that our data on available # of seats vs applicant % is not accurate enough to worry about it

well then you'd have to take into account representativeness because we all know TLS isn't haven't seen the spreadsheet yet, but let's say on TLS 100/150 people already got JS1s. in the nonTLS population, it's definitely not a similar proportion. it may be 100/150 on TLS but only 200/800 among nonTLS. so if those 100 JS1s on TLS already represent say 25-33% of all JS1s, then the total # of JS1s would only be 300-400, not 600. it's not just a matter of 100/.17

while I agree that those of us in the JS2 waiting room are better off not worrying about it, it's also not the source of comfort that lawschool22 may have seemed to find that we're "4 months hence 2/3rds in"

[drawstring]

Monday.....Monday

[Nonconsecutive]

Monday.....Monday

Well, it seems I was wrong on my Wednesday - Friday bonanza, however this just reinforces my belief that there will be some movement on Monday.

[illyria]

I don't understand... Last year's December waves seemed to have been much bigger.

[Leo]

... She's making a JS2 list and checking it twice.
Trying to determine who's been naughty and who's been nice.
She'll write down their names and numbers with care...

And phone them all on Monday, answering drawstring's prayer.
You're in! she'll say, adding that your softs did the trick...

[everett2014]

I don't understand... Last year's December waves seemed to have been much bigger.

I think they're just behind. Hardly any December JS2s have been admitted, which has not been the case at this point in time during previous cycles. We just have to let them catch up, I guess.


Or... Against statistical odds, almost all December JS2s will be denied this cycle

[FuriousDuck]

...

[lawschool22]

I hate to bring up my "theory" again . But maybe they really are less than satisfied and are waiting for more apps to come in to asses who they want to admit.

[wtrc]

I hate to bring up my "theory" again . But maybe they really are less than satisfied and are waiting for more apps to come in to asses who they want to admit.

I think it's on point. Apps are down. 170+ scorers are down. Past cycles aren't as good an indicator this year, because schools just don't know what's going to happen.

Really rooting for you guys to get JS2's, and can't wait to celebrate, hopefully sooner rather than later.

[everett2014]

I hate to bring up my "theory" again . But maybe they really are less than satisfied and are waiting for more apps to come in to asses who they want to admit.

There are some really high numbers still waiting on a JS2, though, and yesterday's relatively small batch shows that they don't have an issue with issuing a small number of acceptances. So why would JS being holding these high scorers just because the larger pool is slightly weaker?

[midwest17]

I hate to bring up my "theory" again . But maybe they really are less than satisfied and are waiting for more apps to come in to asses who they want to admit.

I think it's on point. Apps are down. 170+ scorers are down. Past cycles aren't as good an indicator this year, because schools just don't know what's going to happen.

Really rooting for you guys to get JS2's, and can't wait to celebrate, hopefully sooner rather than later.

What was the band that was up? Was it 173+ or 175+?

[malleus discentium]

I hate to bring up my "theory" again . But maybe they really are less than satisfied and are waiting for more apps to come in to asses who they want to admit.

I think it's on point. Apps are down. 170+ scorers are down. Past cycles aren't as good an indicator this year, because schools just don't know what's going to happen.

Really rooting for you guys to get JS2's, and can't wait to celebrate, hopefully sooner rather than later.

What was the band that was up? Was it 173+ or 175+?

175+

[staples88]

well when you consider the fact that they did 2 extra weeks of JS1s, they're probably right on schedule volume-wise if not date-wise.

and i know 175+ are up but does it matter to them that 170+ is down slightly? and 173+ contains 175+ so for all spivey's data tells us, 173+ could be on balance the same or better than last year, no?

i remember a few pages back wtrc said something about how they wouldn't hold >both medians or approximately around both if their plan was actually to hold the ship and wait for more apps. now wtrc has gotten in (congrats btw). so if they were holding the ship, wouldn't someone like wtrc need to have waited longer "to see how the rest of the pool turns out"?

[FuriousDuck]

...

[the_pakalypse]

ITT: People with incredibly strong reasoning skills (as indicated by LSAT scores) relying on tenuous logic, at best.*

Notes
----
1. This includes me.
2. Assuming LSAT scores actually serve as a good indicator of reasoning skills.
3. Almost sorta-kinda ironic in a way, isn't it?

[js101b]

ITT: People with incredibly strong reasoning skills (as indicated by LSAT scores) relying on tenuous logic, at best.*

Notes
----
1. This includes me.
2. Assuming LSAT scores actually serve as a good indicator of reasoning skills.
3. Almost sorta-kinda ironic in a way, isn't it?

lol

[lawschool22]

Oh I fully realize my logic ITT is tenuous. I think we're all just trying to pass the time a bit.

[Mort_the_Tort]

... She's making a JS2 list and checking it twice.
Trying to determine who's been naughty and who's been nice.
She'll write down their names and numbers with care...

And phone them all on Monday, answering drawstring's prayer.
You're in! she'll say, adding that your softs did the trick...

1,000,000+