TLS c/o 2020 - In #Squad We Trust Forum

[tuesdayninja]

You guys get fee waivers?

[amta]

You guys get fee waivers?

not me

[JoshLyman13]

Because I'm insane and I can stop working when I leave work, I took the change from 1/8/16 to 6/4/16 and projected 6/4/17 Applicant Numbers as follows. If we're going to really get into analyzing school yields we should probably use projected final figures:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I'll probably update this to analyze my really lazy projection, also sorry I copied from excel and lost the formulas, they weren't that in depth. Finally ignore the owner, it's a defunct anonymous account I had for a project I did

I did a little analysis using the medians and fall 2016 class sizes to figure out how many 170+ scorers the top 14 needs to sustain their current medians.

Here are the class sizes and medians I was working with:

Yale - 210 (170-173-175)
Harvard - 563 (170-172-175)
Stanford - 180 (168-171-173)
Columbia - 391 (168-172-174)
Chicago - 185 (166-170-172)
NYU - 431 (166-169-171)
Penn - 242 (163-169-170)
UVA - 296 (164-169-170)
Michigan - 305 (164-168-169)
Berkeley - 301 (163-166-169)
Duke - 221 (167-168-170)
Northwestern - 215 (163-168-170)
Cornell - 194 (163-167-168)
Georgetown - 576 (162-167-168)

From these numbers, I was able to deduce the following about 170+ scorers:

Yale - Has at minimum 158 with 52 more between 120-170 inclusive
Harvard - Has at minimum 423 with 140 more between 120-170 inclusive
Stanford - Has at minimum 90 with 45 more between 168-171 inclusive
Columbia - Has at minimum 196 with 97 more between 168-172 inclusive
Chicago - Has at minimum 93 with 46 more between 166-170 inclusive
NYU - Has at minimum 108 with 107 more between 169-171 inclusive
Penn - Has at minimum 61 with 60 more between 169-170 inclusive
UVA - Has at minimum 74 with 74 more between 169-170 inclusive
Michigan - Has at minimum 0 with 76 more between 169-180 inclusive
Berkeley - Has at minimum 0 with 75 more between 169-180 inclusive
Duke - Has at minimum 55 with 55 more between 169-170 inclusive
Northwestern - Has at minimum 54 with 53 more between 168-170 inclusive
Cornell - Has at minimum 0 with 48 more between 168-180 inclusive
Georgetown - Has at minimum 0 with 144 more between 168-180 inclusive

Counting just the guaranteed 170+ scorers, there are 1312 in the top 14. There are another 1072 potential 170+ scorers for a maximum of 2384 that could be in the top 14 schools. Of those potential 170+ scorers, some are much more likely than others. Obviously it's not very likely that all 140 of those below Harvard's 25th scored exactly a 170, nor is it likely that all of Michigan's 76 between 169-180 scored exactly a 169, most of those are probably 170+. There are another 1926 in the top 14 that definitely have LSAT scores between 120-169.

So of the 4310 spots in the top 14 last year, anywhere from 1312-2384 (30.44% to 55.31%) had a 170+ LSAT score. Someone that is better at statistics could probably reduce that range quite a bit by using projections to approximate how many of the potential 170+ scorers actually scored at least a 170.

According to the projection from Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash, there will be 2443 170+ scorers this cycle. So, if that projection is relatively close to accurate, it looks like the top 14 could hold their medians if they get a good chunk of those high scorers, which I'm sure they will.

[Instrumental]

Nah, could have gotten one, but I was impatient and just sent it off.

[chargers21]

.

[amta]

GULC can be easily solicited for a fee waiver

not my experience...

[chargers21]

.

[chargers21]

.

[jjcorvino]

Because I'm insane and I can stop working when I leave work, I took the change from 1/8/16 to 6/4/16 and projected 6/4/17 Applicant Numbers as follows. If we're going to really get into analyzing school yields we should probably use projected final figures:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I'll probably update this to analyze my really lazy projection, also sorry I copied from excel and lost the formulas, they weren't that in depth. Finally ignore the owner, it's a defunct anonymous account I had for a project I did

I did a little analysis using the medians and fall 2016 class sizes to figure out how many 170+ scorers the top 14 needs to sustain their current medians.

Here are the class sizes and medians I was working with:

Yale - 210 (170-173-175)
Harvard - 563 (170-172-175)
Stanford - 180 (168-171-173)
Columbia - 391 (168-172-174)
Chicago - 185 (166-170-172)
NYU - 431 (166-169-171)
Penn - 242 (163-169-170)
UVA - 296 (164-169-170)
Michigan - 305 (164-168-169)
Berkeley - 301 (163-166-169)
Duke - 221 (167-168-170)
Northwestern - 215 (163-168-170)
Cornell - 194 (163-167-168)
Georgetown - 576 (162-167-168)

From these numbers, I was able to deduce the following about 170+ scorers:

Yale - Has at minimum 158 with 52 more between 120-170 inclusive
Harvard - Has at minimum 423 with 140 more between 120-170 inclusive
Stanford - Has at minimum 90 with 45 more between 168-171 inclusive
Columbia - Has at minimum 196 with 97 more between 168-172 inclusive
Chicago - Has at minimum 93 with 46 more between 166-170 inclusive
NYU - Has at minimum 108 with 107 more between 169-171 inclusive
Penn - Has at minimum 61 with 60 more between 169-170 inclusive
UVA - Has at minimum 74 with 74 more between 169-170 inclusive
Michigan - Has at minimum 0 with 76 more between 169-180 inclusive
Berkeley - Has at minimum 0 with 75 more between 169-180 inclusive
Duke - Has at minimum 55 with 55 more between 169-170 inclusive
Northwestern - Has at minimum 54 with 53 more between 168-170 inclusive
Cornell - Has at minimum 0 with 48 more between 168-180 inclusive
Georgetown - Has at minimum 0 with 144 more between 168-180 inclusive

Counting just the guaranteed 170+ scorers, there are 1312 in the top 14. There are another 1072 potential 170+ scorers for a maximum of 2384 that could be in the top 14 schools. Of those potential 170+ scorers, some are much more likely than others. Obviously it's not very likely that all 140 of those below Harvard's 25th scored exactly a 170, nor is it likely that all of Michigan's 76 between 169-180 scored exactly a 169, most of those are probably 170+. There are another 1926 in the top 14 that definitely have LSAT scores between 120-169.

So of the 4310 spots in the top 14 last year, anywhere from 1312-2384 (30.44% to 55.31%) had a 170+ LSAT score. Someone that is better at statistics could probably reduce that range quite a bit by using projections to approximate how many of the potential 170+ scorers actually scored at least a 170.

According to the projection from Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash, there will be 2443 170+ scorers this cycle. So, if that projection is relatively close to accurate, it looks like the top 14 could hold their medians if they get a good chunk of those high scorers, which I'm sure they will.

Thank you for the analysis!

[TexasENG]

.

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

Because I'm insane and I can stop working when I leave work, I took the change from 1/8/16 to 6/4/16 and projected 6/4/17 Applicant Numbers as follows. If we're going to really get into analyzing school yields we should probably use projected final figures:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I'll probably update this to analyze my really lazy projection, also sorry I copied from excel and lost the formulas, they weren't that in depth. Finally ignore the owner, it's a defunct anonymous account I had for a project I did

I did a little analysis using the medians and fall 2016 class sizes to figure out how many 170+ scorers the top 14 needs to sustain their current medians.

Here are the class sizes and medians I was working with:

Yale - 210 (170-173-175)
Harvard - 563 (170-172-175)
Stanford - 180 (168-171-173)
Columbia - 391 (168-172-174)
Chicago - 185 (166-170-172)
NYU - 431 (166-169-171)
Penn - 242 (163-169-170)
UVA - 296 (164-169-170)
Michigan - 305 (164-168-169)
Berkeley - 301 (163-166-169)
Duke - 221 (167-168-170)
Northwestern - 215 (163-168-170)
Cornell - 194 (163-167-168)
Georgetown - 576 (162-167-168)

From these numbers, I was able to deduce the following about 170+ scorers:

Yale - Has at minimum 158 with 52 more between 120-170 inclusive
Harvard - Has at minimum 423 with 140 more between 120-170 inclusive
Stanford - Has at minimum 90 with 45 more between 168-171 inclusive
Columbia - Has at minimum 196 with 97 more between 168-172 inclusive
Chicago - Has at minimum 93 with 46 more between 166-170 inclusive
NYU - Has at minimum 108 with 107 more between 169-171 inclusive
Penn - Has at minimum 61 with 60 more between 169-170 inclusive
UVA - Has at minimum 74 with 74 more between 169-170 inclusive
Michigan - Has at minimum 0 with 76 more between 169-180 inclusive
Berkeley - Has at minimum 0 with 75 more between 169-180 inclusive
Duke - Has at minimum 55 with 55 more between 169-170 inclusive
Northwestern - Has at minimum 54 with 53 more between 168-170 inclusive
Cornell - Has at minimum 0 with 48 more between 168-180 inclusive
Georgetown - Has at minimum 0 with 144 more between 168-180 inclusive

Counting just the guaranteed 170+ scorers, there are 1312 in the top 14. There are another 1072 potential 170+ scorers for a maximum of 2384 that could be in the top 14 schools. Of those potential 170+ scorers, some are much more likely than others. Obviously it's not very likely that all 140 of those below Harvard's 25th scored exactly a 170, nor is it likely that all of Michigan's 76 between 169-180 scored exactly a 169, most of those are probably 170+. There are another 1926 in the top 14 that definitely have LSAT scores between 120-169.

So of the 4310 spots in the top 14 last year, anywhere from 1312-2384 (30.44% to 55.31%) had a 170+ LSAT score. Someone that is better at statistics could probably reduce that range quite a bit by using projections to approximate how many of the potential 170+ scorers actually scored at least a 170.

According to the projection from Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash, there will be 2443 170+ scorers this cycle. So, if that projection is relatively close to accurate, it looks like the top 14 could hold their medians if they get a good chunk of those high scorers, which I'm sure they will.

Thank you for the analysis!

Yeah this is amazing!


Does this analysis account for matriculation rates? I'm not sure how we could accurately allocate that but I'd imagine it's important consideration

[R. Jeeves]

According to the projection from Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash, there will be 2443 170+ scorers this cycle. So, if that projection is relatively close to accurate, it looks like the top 14 could hold their medians if they get a good chunk of those high scorers, which I'm sure they will.

it is possible that every t14 holds its medians.

but unless the applicant pool's GPA is skewed higher this year than it was last year (doesnt seem likely) then the T14 will - absolutely will - end up with either a weaker overall LSAT score distribution or a weaker overall GPA distribution or both*.

now it is possible to end up with a weaker overall LSAT/GPA distribution and still maintain medians; how significant the drop in LSAT scores has to be in order for us to say that it will probably result in a medians drop is hard to say.

rn the only thing its safe to say that if you have a 165+, your overall chances at $ and acceptances in the T14 are up*

*unless they cut class sizes

[Thelaw23]

-

[StopLawying]

.

[Keilz]

Had a dream that I got a JS1 even though I didn't apply there because they heard my application was good

[Kopetz]

Had a dream that I got a JS1 even though I didn't apply there because they heard my application was good

maybe that was real life and you're dreaming right now

[Instrumental]

Had a dream that I got a JS1 even though I didn't apply there because they heard my application was good

maybe that was real life and you're dreaming right now

Inception

[Mint-Berry_Crunch]

**finishes checking status checker for all applications**




"better double check maybe there's been movement"

[airwrecka]

**finishes checking status checker for all applications**




"better double check maybe there's been movement"

+10000

[Thomas Hagan, ESQ.]

**finishes checking status checker for all applications**




"better double check maybe there's been movement"

+10000

x1000000

After double-checking

"Just got into _____ law school via status checker!" - Someone on a TLS forum for somewhere you didn't apply to

Goes back to triple check everything.

[SybillAnnDorsett]

Okay somebody let me know why the University of Arkansas Law School just emailed me and the first line is

"With your [REDACTED] LSAT score, you may be eligible for admission..."

First of all, shade. They tried it! Listing my LSAT score... iconic. They did THAT.

Second of all, there is no "second of all". I'm just blown away. *unsubscribes*

[katthegreat11]

Okay somebody let me know why the University of Arkansas Law School just emailed me and the first line is

"With your [REDACTED] LSAT score, you may be eligible for admission..."

First of all, shade. They tried it! Listing my LSAT score... iconic. They did THAT.

Second of all, there is no "second of all". I'm just blown away. *unsubscribes*

Lol I just got that email too. Byeeeeee

[Torres1893]

On LSN are the stats for matriculation supposed to be for 2019? I saw 2020 and was like man that's a lot of students who matriculated already for the class of 2020 at ND

[brinicolec]

**finishes checking status checker for all applications**




"better double check maybe there's been movement"

+10000

x1000000

After double-checking

"Just got into _____ law school via status checker!" - Someone on a TLS forum for somewhere you didn't apply to

Goes back to triple check everything.

Honestly, nothing makes me more obsessive over a status checker than someone else reporting movement lol

[amta]

**finishes checking status checker for all applications**




"better double check maybe there's been movement"

*finishes apps*

"okay, im not going to be like the crazies on TLS. im only gonna check the status checkers twice a day"

*9AM: has already checked status checkers 3 times today*