TLS c/o 2020 - In #Squad We Trust Forum

[jjcorvino]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

not a math bear but it seems like choosing a reference score and working back from there is a useful approach. 172 looks like a good choice -- below median for Yale, median for Columbia and Yale, above median but below 75th for Stanford, 75th for Chicago. Using the current numbers and last year's total enrollments for each school, it looks like there's a few hundred more applicants >172 LSAT than those schools would need to maintain their medians/75ths.

However, other schools are also going to be trying to poach the cream of that crop with scholarships etc., given that the 172+ crowd is in everyone's 75th LSAT persentile by default, so the ~350-applicant surplus my quick calculation got may not be as deep as it looks

Yeah, I was trying to figure out an easy score to do this with. The issue is calculating how many people with high scores (170s) get poached by the non T6. I think it has to be a significant amount? A good amount of people probably choose a full ride/stipend rather than the top schools.

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

If we're talking year-over-year trend-line analysis we have to be comfortable with the assumption that seasonality is somewhat static.

I'm still not convinced I'm that comfortable yet. Sure we're now seeing some applicants with December scores, but we certainly don't see the whole picture, I mean looking back at 2015-2016 173 applicants picked up ~100 applicants between now and April. How likely/possible is it that we see an uncharacteristic increase in applicants brought on by a bad September but good December, that just hasn't manifested in submitted apps yet.

Actually, as I think about it, what are the odds that someone who scored 170+ in December has yet to submit a single application, probably very few more than the ~100 we already have baked into out assumptions.

I think it's probably valuable to do a YTD analysis comparing raw numbers from early January 2016.

God, I have to do Year-over-year analysis for work and it's part of the reason I'm going to law school

[jjcorvino]

Is this data compared to the same point last year, or overall applicants last year?

Quick analysis, looks like it's based on the data at 01/08/16. Tested the 173 figures

If you use the final numbers 173's are down 50%, if you use the 1/08/16 figures it's -14

ETA: Link to 2016 figures used in flux analysis

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2015-1 ... of-1-8-16/

You are skilled, and I need a Chief of Staff fyi. It's 1/6/17 versus 1/8/16. At this point last cycle 40% of applications were accounted for in the data.

Have you thought of doing any of the sort of analysis that I was trying to figure out and publishing them? I imagine that law schools admissions offices run those sort of numbers.

[ms9]

Is this data compared to the same point last year, or overall applicants last year?

Quick analysis, looks like it's based on the data at 01/08/16. Tested the 173 figures

If you use the final numbers 173's are down 50%, if you use the 1/08/16 figures it's -14

ETA: Link to 2016 figures used in flux analysis

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2015-1 ... of-1-8-16/

You are skilled, and I need a Chief of Staff fyi. It's 1/6/17 versus 1/8/16. At this point last cycle 40% of applications were accounted for in the data.

Have you thought of doing any of the sort of analysis that I was trying to figure out and publishing them? I imagine that law schools admissions offices run those sort of numbers.

If I weren't working 4:30am - 7:30pm 7/days a week (our busiest time of year) I would. We actually do that kind of thing for law schools, too.

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

You are skilled, and I need a Chief of Staff fyi.

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

But for real;

we are way staffed up for year-end but haven't officially started work.

Odds I could get an intern to run this trend line we're talking about without them realizing it has 0 to do with accounting?

[jjcorvino]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

If we're talking year-over-year trend-line analysis we have to be comfortable with the assumption that seasonality is somewhat static.

I'm still not convinced I'm that comfortable yet. Sure we're now seeing some applicants with December scores, but we certainly don't see the whole picture, I mean looking back at 2015-2016 173 applicants picked up ~100 applicants between now and April. How likely/possible is it that we see an uncharacteristic increase in applicants brought on by a bad September but good December, that just hasn't manifested in submitted apps yet.

Actually, as I think about it, what are the odds that someone who scored 170+ in December has yet to submit a single application, probably very few more than the ~100 we already have baked into out assumptions.

I think it's probably valuable to do a YTD analysis comparing raw numbers from early January 2016.

God, I have to do Year-over-year analysis for work and it's part of the reason I'm going to law school

Don't take your work home! (or bring this there and run some numbers for us all)

My intuition tells me that the high scorers are more likely to submit apps quickly. I think they would have their PS and letters prepared beforehand. If you study that hard for the LSAT, you probably care enough to spend the time waiting to get your materials ready. Of course that is not based on any real stats, but it makes sense in my head.

[Pozzo]

Someone point me to the data and I'm on it. Slowest weeke EVER at work.

[jjcorvino]

But for real;

we are way staffed up for year-end but haven't officially started work.

Odds I could get an intern to run this trend line we're talking about without them realizing it has 0 to do with accounting?

I have been an intern many times, I probably wouldn't think twice.

[jjcorvino]

Is this data compared to the same point last year, or overall applicants last year?

Quick analysis, looks like it's based on the data at 01/08/16. Tested the 173 figures

If you use the final numbers 173's are down 50%, if you use the 1/08/16 figures it's -14

ETA: Link to 2016 figures used in flux analysis

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2015-1 ... of-1-8-16/

You are skilled, and I need a Chief of Staff fyi. It's 1/6/17 versus 1/8/16. At this point last cycle 40% of applications were accounted for in the data.

Have you thought of doing any of the sort of analysis that I was trying to figure out and publishing them? I imagine that law schools admissions offices run those sort of numbers.

If I weren't working 4:30am - 7:30pm 7/days a week (our busiest time of year) I would. We actually do that kid of thing for law schools, too.

Didn't really expect you guys to. Even if you took the time, I imagine that would be kept as an internal tool for your clients. When schools do this, is there some kind of software that has been created, or do they steal math majors from the undergrad programs to help them out?

[CPA-->JD]

But for real;

we are way staffed up for year-end but haven't officially started work.

Odds I could get an intern to run this trend line we're talking about without them realizing it has 0 to do with accounting?

Random but absolutely love your username!

[brinicolec]

Y'all are stressing me out with all this talk of numbers.

[Assasindowntheavenue]

Y'all are stressing me out with all this talk of numbers.

+1

[Instrumental]

Y'all are stressing me out with all this talk of numbers.

+1

Seriously my heart rate was noticeably faster by the time I got through those posts.

[ashrice13]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

I'm thinking schools might choose to accept an inevitable LSAT percentiles hit given the drop in high scores and forget about the upper band altogether, especially splitters. Pure speculation.

I wanna go on record having called it though, I think 165-169 with 3.8+ will win big this cycle.

mmm yeah that's the stuff

Seriously. You're my new best friend.

And to think, I almost didn't throw out my reverse splitter Hail Mary app to Harvard.

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

Because I'm insane and I can stop working when I leave work, I took the change from 1/8/16 to 6/4/16 and projected 6/4/17 Applicant Numbers as follows. If we're going to really get into analyzing school yields we should probably use projected final figures:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I'll probably update this to analyze my really lazy projection, also sorry I copied from excel and lost the formulas, they weren't that in depth. Finally ignore the owner, it's a defunct anonymous account I had for a project I did

[Kopetz]

Because I'm insane and I can stop working when I leave work, I took the change from 1/8/16 to 6/4/16 and projected 6/4/17 Applicant Numbers as follows. If we're going to really get into analyzing school yields we should probably use projected final figures:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I'll probably update this to analyze my really lazy projection, also sorry I copied from excel and lost the formulas, they weren't that in depth. Finally ignore the owner, it's a defunct anonymous account I had for a project I did

This is awesome and so are you.

On the 175+ side, I'm really interested in that 176 valley. I know at least two of the LSATs from the last year (maybe three?) had no 176 score, which explains the dip, but I wonder how that affects admissions decisions.

[somedeadman]

Does the huge increase in 170 score applicants spell bad news for those in the 165-169 range, even though there is a substantial decrease in applicants from that score range?

[zeglo]

.

[somedeadman]

Does the huge increase in 170 score applicants spell bad news for those in the 165-169 range, even though there is a substantial decrease in applicants from that score range?

doubt it. The 171+ is down enough to counteract it.

Guess we'll find out soon enough....

Just more motivation for that lsat retake. Looks like there's huge upside for even a 1-2 point increase

[chargers21]

.

[Cbear2017]

cornell is hunting ranks

+1

my advice to them would be to retake where they put that school.

+1. At least Berkeley has the SF Bay Area. What does Cornell have? Bridges with nets.

+2 The nets are 1000% more morbid than not having them. They are a VERY poignant reminder.

I kept seeing stuff about the nets and didn't realize there are ACTUALLY NETS. That is borderline creepy and depressing.

Guys it's really not that bad. I went to Cornell undergrad and honestly the nets are comforting cause the gorges are awesome but can be scary as fuck since they're so high. It's more to prevent drunk people from falling in than students throwing themselves off, seriously.

As another cornell undergrad, here's a "every cloud has a silver lining" story from personal experience: they are sooo useful when you slip on ice, subsequently drop your phone off the bridge and the net catches it and you reach down and get it and thus don't have to spend $700 for a new iphone.

[tuesdayninja]

Thoughts on tossing out an app now to GULC? 75th LSAT and <25 GPA.

[amta]

Thoughts on tossing out an app now to GULC? 75th LSAT and <25 GPA.

duh

[Instrumental]

Thoughts on tossing out an app now to GULC? 75th LSAT and <25 GPA.

I'm the same and I did.