TLS c/o 2020 - In #Squad We Trust Forum

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

new data

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/untitled-4/

Still seeing 170's propping up the entire band too

can we assume schools with 169 medians will be gunning for 170? If so, they all wouldn't be able to raise to 170 would they?

Maybe, I mean that is a big increase for 170, but if the total band is still down 1% and all the ones higher are down even more, I would expect the highest schools dip lower to maintain their numbers, which would permeate down the bands ending with 170s getting picked up by schools with a median above 170

[jjcorvino]

Is this data compared to the same point last year, or overall applicants last year?

[Rubbishdump]

In at Cornell, pretty excited. Best of luck to the rest of ya'll.

[brinicolec]

new data

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/untitled-4/

Still seeing 170's propping up the entire band too

can we assume schools with 169 medians will be gunning for 170? If so, they all wouldn't be able to raise to 170 would they?

It won't likely work like that. HYSCCN will have to dig deeper into the 170 scorers to maintain, and Harvard Columbia and NYC have huge class sizes. It's going to destroy schools with 169 medians- seriously, half as many 169s as 170s? Jesus.

Yeah, I don't imagine many schools trying to gun for the 170. I think the only way that'd even remotely work is if they were all willing to shell out more money to compete with HYSCCN.

[brinicolec]

The Spivey data summary tweet: "Just got the most recent #lawschool data recorded through 1/6. Applicants are down -4.4, applications down -2.2. All LSAT bandwidths >160 "

Also tweeted that decisions seem to be coming slower this cycle.

So does this mean we picked a good cycle to apply during or????

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

Is this data compared to the same point last year, or overall applicants last year?

Quick analysis, looks like it's based on the data at 01/08/16. Tested the 173 figures

If you use the final numbers 173's are down 50%, if you use the 1/08/16 figures it's -14

ETA: Link to 2016 figures used in flux analysis

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2015-1 ... of-1-8-16/

[amta]

The Spivey data summary tweet: "Just got the most recent #lawschool data recorded through 1/6. Applicants are down -4.4, applications down -2.2. All LSAT bandwidths >160 "

Also tweeted that decisions seem to be coming slower this cycle.

So does this mean we picked a good cycle to apply during or????

shaping up that way.

[brinicolec]

The Spivey data summary tweet: "Just got the most recent #lawschool data recorded through 1/6. Applicants are down -4.4, applications down -2.2. All LSAT bandwidths >160 "

Also tweeted that decisions seem to be coming slower this cycle.

So does this mean we picked a good cycle to apply during or????

shaping up that way.

Mentioned Spivey and asked if he'd be able to make a post explaining what these decreases might mean for this cycle; he said he'll try to make a post about it at some point but won't have time this week.

[tuesdayninja]

Does this hurt splitters? I'm in the 165-169 band and wondering if I should maybe throw out a couple more apps.

[addie1412]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

[brinicolec]

Does this hurt splitters? I'm in the 165-169 band and wondering if I should maybe throw out a couple more apps.

Why would it hurt splitters? If anything, I'd imagine it'd help a splitter with a low GPA because they don't have as many high scorers to choose from.

[Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

[StopLawying]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

Or maybe they'll reduce class size drastically, which would absolutely suck.

[addie1412]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

I'm thinking schools might choose to accept an inevitable LSAT percentiles hit given the drop in high scores and forget about the upper band altogether, especially splitters. Pure speculation.

I wanna go on record having called it though, I think 165-169 with 3.8+ will win big this cycle.

[govlife]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

This is what I was thinking, or maybe hoping. Any way this means I should make one last swing for the fences and submit a last minute app to HLS as a super splitter? Kidding, really, but it keeps coming to mind.

[addie1412]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

This is what I was thinking, or maybe hoping. Any way this means I should make one last swing for the fences and submit a last minute app to HLS as a super splitter? Kidding, really, but it keeps coming to mind.

I think it's worth applying.

[jjcorvino]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

[StopLawying]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

Lol

[88234]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

What does that mean for Cooley tho? Plz answer the important questions.

[addie1412]

More fun with numbers:

Harvard would have to enroll 46% of those in the 175-180 band in order to maintain their 75th with their current class size. Given their ~62% yield rate, this means they'd have to admit 74% of those in the 175-180 band.

*if these were all the apps, that is

[jjcorvino]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

What does that mean for Cooley tho? Plz answer the important questions.

How many of the 175+ score band do you think Cooley steals from the T6 this year? these are the important questions.

[jjcorvino]

More fun with numbers:

Harvard would have to enroll 46% of those in the 175-180 band in order to maintain their 75th with their current class size. Given their ~62% yield rate, this means they'd have to admit 74% of those in the 175-180 band.

I would like to not be the 26%

[Kopetz]

I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

not a math bear but it seems like choosing a reference score and working back from there is a useful approach. 172 looks like a good choice -- below median for Yale, median for Columbia and Yale, above median but below 75th for Stanford, 75th for Chicago. Using the current numbers and last year's total enrollments for each school, it looks like there's a few hundred more applicants >172 LSAT than those schools would need to maintain their medians/75ths.

However, other schools are also going to be trying to poach the cream of that crop with scholarships etc., given that the 172+ crowd is in everyone's 75th LSAT persentile by default, so the ~350-applicant surplus my quick calculation got may not be as deep as it looks

[theboringest]

What are we thinking this means for the 175-180 band? Increased chances at HYS, decreased chances everywhere else?

Would schools really start increasing their YP this cycle? I would think 5-14 would throw acceptances and money at you unicorns in the hope of pulling you away and maintaining 75ths

I'm thinking schools might choose to accept an inevitable LSAT percentiles hit given the drop in high scores and forget about the upper band altogether, especially splitters. Pure speculation.

I wanna go on record having called it though, I think 165-169 with 3.8+ will win big this cycle.

mmm yeah that's the stuff

[ms9]

Is this data compared to the same point last year, or overall applicants last year?

Quick analysis, looks like it's based on the data at 01/08/16. Tested the 173 figures

If you use the final numbers 173's are down 50%, if you use the 1/08/16 figures it's -14

ETA: Link to 2016 figures used in flux analysis

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2015-1 ... of-1-8-16/

You are skilled, and I need a Chief of Staff fyi. It's 1/6/17 versus 1/8/16. At this point last cycle 40% of applications were accounted for in the data.