Yale 2011 applicants Forum

[dianaw]

.

[JeNeRegretteRien]

For those of you that are interested in this kind of thing:

I was curious what percentage of first-round admits to HLS were subsequently accepted to YLS.

My thought was that only comparing the early-HLS-admit-pool might control for several relevant features (a) the strength of the applicant (softs esp.) as evaluated by the closest peer to YLS; (b) self-selection among applicants (on the theory that early applicants share features); (c) the fact that applicant completion-date pools are presumably mostly compared, mostly to each other.

The simplest prediction would simply assume that (1) there is no variation, (2) that all YLS admits are also HLS admits, and therefore that in any given year approximately 32% (270/883, in 2009) of HLS admits are subsequently admitted to Yale.

Using the admittedly noisy LSN data-set for 2007, 2008, and 2009 the results were that, of early HLS admits (late November, pre-Thanksgiving JR2s):

2007 2008 2009 Total
37.8% 39.1% 41.7% 39.4%

were subsequently admitted to YLS.

Which, given the noise in the LSN data (estimated MoE of +/-14% assuming, almost certainly inaccurately, the best-case scenario of a simple random distribution), is not a statistically relevant difference at all from the 32% for all HLS admits (simply because the Margin of Error is so big for the sample). The small difference (given the MoE), frustratingly enough, appears consistent with either (a) early HLS admits having a slightly greater chance of YLS admission than all HLS admits, and (b) an early HLS acceptance not really signaling anything more than an HLS acceptance in general.

It could also be consistent (assuming HLS and YLS apps are generally sent at the same time) with the hypothesis that in practice it really does NOT matter much when one applies to YLS - compared to at least one relevant and predictive control / comparison group (HLS admits) the chances of being admitted to YLS may - in fact -be the same early on and later on, since the chances of being accepted to YLS for a strong early applicant (as signaled by the early HLS admit) may in fact not be meaningfully different (depending on the LSN noise) than the average for the total pool.

Meh.

[almightypush]

per Twitter:

snow storms + faculty reading delays + last-minute projects = late notifications

we're admitting applicants starting this afternoon.

[r6_philly]

per Twitter:

snow storms + faculty reading delays + last-minute projects = late notifications

we're admitting applicants starting this afternoon.

That means the first round of faculty reading is done? Oh boy.

[ebeth]

per Twitter:

snow storms + faculty reading delays + last-minute projects = late notifications

we're admitting applicants starting this afternoon.

That means the first round of faculty reading is done? Oh boy.

It's so nonsensical how much I hope to get into this school considering how small of a chance I have.

[r6_philly]

It's so nonsensical how much I hope to get into this school considering how small of a chance I have.

It's the same sentiment for everyone, so it's quite alright.

[JeNeRegretteRien]

It's so nonsensical how much I hope to get into this school considering how small of a chance I have.

This. Exactly.

[tgir]

Any calls yet?

I wonder how early you had to have completed your application to even have a chance at a January admit call.

[Fresh]

I wonder how early you had to have completed your application to even have a chance at a January admit call.

this.
Don't know why I'm even asking though, since I didn't get a 'complete' email yet lol

[tomwatts]

I imagine it wouldn't have sounded as nice to say "We're admitting an applicant this afternoon," but I wonder if that statement might not be more true. I listed about 30 days (back on page 7) on which there was any sort of activity last year, fewer if we only count days with tweets (there were 5 LSN admits on non-tweet days). Even taking the lower number of about 25 days on which calls were made, and figuring that they admit... how many? 250 or something? That's still only about 10 calls per day on average. If we imagine that they're still waiting for a lot of applications to come through in the next month, there's a decent chance that these days are only 5-7 people. Even assuming that the TLS crowd is disproportionately well-qualified and on top of it even for Yale's pool -- which may or may not be true -- the odds of it being someone on TLS on any given day are pretty low, at least for now.

But low odds are not zero odds.

[tgir]

I imagine it wouldn't have sounded as nice to say "We're admitting an applicant this afternoon," but I wonder if that statement might not be more true. I listed about 30 days (back on page 7) on which there was any sort of activity last year, fewer if we only count days with tweets (there were 5 LSN admits on non-tweet days). Even taking the lower number of about 25 days on which calls were made, and figuring that they admit... how many? 250 or something? That's still only about 10 calls per day on average. If we imagine that they're still waiting for a lot of applications to come through in the next month, there's a decent chance that these days are only 5-7 people. Even assuming that the TLS crowd is disproportionately well-qualified and on top of it even for Yale's pool -- which may or may not be true -- the odds of it being someone on TLS on any given day are pretty low, at least for now.

But low odds are not zero odds.

Good point.

It seems like most of the calls so far have come in the 3:30-5:30pm EST window, though, so maybe things just haven't gotten started yet.

[lotus924]

lsn shows no recent (january) change of status to accepted for yale

does this mean that no recently admitted students are on lsn
or if they are, they are too phyched to change their status?

[tgir]

lsn shows no recent (january) change of status to accepted for yale

does this mean that no recently admitted students are on lsn
or if they are, they are too phyched to change their status?

I would guess that it just means that if Yale has admitted anyone in January, it has only been a very small number of people, so small that none of them may be LSN users.

[almightypush]

lsn shows no recent (january) change of status to accepted for yale

does this mean that no recently admitted students are on lsn
or if they are, they are too phyched to change their status?

I would guess that it just means that if Yale has admitted anyone in January, it has only been a very small number of people, so small that none of them may be LSN users.

and yet another tweet has been posted, saying "more offers this afternoon."

i have to believe it's, indeed, a very small number of people getting the nod at present.

[JeNeRegretteRien]

"More offers this afternoon."

Edit: Woops. Posted at the same time as ^.

[lotus924]

and yet another tweet has been posted, saying "more offers this afternoon."

i have to believe it's, indeed, a very small number of people getting the nod at present.

is your avatar naruto? cute, yet fierce.

[Weirdlog]

lsn shows no recent (january) change of status to accepted for yale

does this mean that no recently admitted students are on lsn
or if they are, they are too phyched to change their status?

I would guess that it just means that if Yale has admitted anyone in January, it has only been a very small number of people, so small that none of them may be LSN users.

and yet another tweet has been posted, saying "more offers this afternoon."

i have to believe it's, indeed, a very small number of people getting the nod at present.

Yale is such a tease.

[123kl]

So we're basically 100% sure that applying now, or any time before Feb 15th, doesn't affect our decision? I'm seriously considering throwing my hat into the ring. If my chances are even more diminished than they already are because of my numbers, then that 250 can suck it.

[r6_philly]

So we're basically 100% sure that applying now, or any time before Feb 15th, doesn't affect our decision? I'm seriously considering throwing my hat into the ring. If my chances are even more diminished than they already are because of my numbers, then that 250 can suck it.

I think the understanding is that if you are good enough to be an admit on 10/15, you will be on 2/15. The rest of us hope to fill a seat unfilled by those people by 4/1.

[lotus924]

So we're basically 100% sure that applying now, or any time before Feb 15th, doesn't affect our decision? I'm seriously considering throwing my hat into the ring. If my chances are even more diminished than they already are because of my numbers, then that 250 can suck it.

I think the understanding is that if you are good enough to be an admit on 10/15, you will be on 2/15. The rest of us hope to fill a seat unfilled by those people by 4/1.

wait, what's the significance of 2/15?

[LinzerTorte]

So we're basically 100% sure that applying now, or any time before Feb 15th, doesn't affect our decision? I'm seriously considering throwing my hat into the ring. If my chances are even more diminished than they already are because of my numbers, then that 250 can suck it.

I think the understanding is that if you are good enough to be an admit on 10/15, you will be on 2/15. The rest of us hope to fill a seat unfilled by those people by 4/1.

What was it that Asha blog said? 60 auto-admits?

Yeah, the likelihood of being in that group, based on sheer numbers alone, is tiny! For everyone else, application time doesn't really matter.

At least, I hope so, which is why I'm still wrestling with my 250...

[123kl]

So we're basically 100% sure that applying now, or any time before Feb 15th, doesn't affect our decision? I'm seriously considering throwing my hat into the ring. If my chances are even more diminished than they already are because of my numbers, then that 250 can suck it.

I think the understanding is that if you are good enough to be an admit on 10/15, you will be on 2/15. The rest of us hope to fill a seat unfilled by those people by 4/1.

wait, what's the significance of 2/15?

Apps due.

[lotus924]

So we're basically 100% sure that applying now, or any time before Feb 15th, doesn't affect our decision? I'm seriously considering throwing my hat into the ring. If my chances are even more diminished than they already are because of my numbers, then that 250 can suck it.

I think the understanding is that if you are good enough to be an admit on 10/15, you will be on 2/15. The rest of us hope to fill a seat unfilled by those people by 4/1.

wait, what's the significance of 2/15?

Apps due.

ah, an admit who sent in his/her app on 10/15 and will send in his/her app by 2/15

had the date confused with an admission that was handed out on 10/15 (and will be handed out by 2/15) which, come to think of it now, doesn't make any sense since the earliest acceptance was probably made sometime in december

silly me.

[almightypush]

and yet another tweet has been posted, saying "more offers this afternoon."

i have to believe it's, indeed, a very small number of people getting the nod at present.

is your avatar naruto? cute, yet fierce.

you got it... it's the character Pain from Naruto.

[JeNeRegretteRien]

According to AR (and consistent with last year), looks like rejections will probably start going out in the next two weeks.
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