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[mpc347]

I know we aren't supposed to be jumping to conclusions yet, but as a mid-Nov JS1 at/above both medians with several years of work experience I'm feeling pretty hopeless.

[LawBron James]

I know we aren't supposed to be jumping to conclusions yet, but as a mid-Nov JS1 at/above both medians with several years of work experience I'm feeling pretty hopeless.

Why? Id be really confident if I were you. You realize they've only accepted 30-60 of 900 people right?

[Kobaine51]

I know we aren't supposed to be jumping to conclusions yet, but as a mid-Nov JS1 at/above both medians with several years of work experience I'm feeling pretty hopeless.

There have been, like, 4 JS2s - they have 800+ people to accept

[hillz]

I know we aren't supposed to be jumping to conclusions yet, but as a mid-Nov JS1 at/above both medians with several years of work experience I'm feeling pretty hopeless.

Wait, you realize only a handful of people have gotten JS2s, right? Like only one day of phone calls, so there are a bunch of us Nov JS1s waiting. I'm antsy but not at all worried yet because it's not like we've gotten left behind.

[foles]

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[pylon]

Of the 10 people who reported JS2's in this thread,

3 had JS1s on Oct 27th
2 had JS1s on Oct 31st
3 had JS1s on Nov 3rd
2 had JS1s between Nov 10th - 14th (but not positive about this)

So if you had a JS1 after Nov 3rd, I wouldn't even begin to slightly worry. And if you had a JS1 prior to that, I still wouldn't even worry because there are so many people who haven't heard back with stellar numbers that you are in good company.

[RSN]

I know we aren't supposed to be jumping to conclusions yet, but as a mid-Nov JS1 at/above both medians with several years of work experience I'm feeling pretty hopeless.

Wait, you realize only a handful of people have gotten JS2s, right? Like only one day of phone calls, so there are a bunch of us Nov JS1s waiting. I'm antsy but not at all worried yet because it's not like we've gotten left behind.

Furthermore, the 5 LSN acceptances so far are all at/above at least one 75th and/or URMs: http://harvard.lawschoolnumbers.com/app ... t=decision. Can't recall my tallies for when the first round came in a few weeks ago, but that was the case for nearly all the acceptances in this thread also. It does seem like the first wave was almost entirely people at the top top of the applicant pool... but that's only 40-50 people, tops.

[BillsFan9907]

Not being admitted yet clearly means nothing. NO ONE should be anxious.

[tk17]

Since we're doing numbers this morning (I didn't know about the LSN had gradients!), I thought I'd try to contribute. I remember Spivey saying a bit back that this cycle would look more like the one two years ago- the super amazing awesome one when Chicago, Columbia, NYU, Penn, UVA, etc all dropped their medians- so I thought I'd see if I could back that up with numbers. I used the projections I posted earlier in this thread and some more back-working to calculate what I think were the final applicant counts in '12/'13, '13/'14 and what we're projected to have in '14/'15.

The big takeaway is that we're on pace to have even less 170+ applicants than even that fantastic '12/'13 cycle.

The spreadsheet is below and the comparisons are under the second tab called "Comparisons"

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =851595791

Feel free to let me know if there are any errors!

This is awesome.

[psychmusic]

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[unlively]

Of the 10 people who reported JS2's in this thread,

3 had JS1s on Oct 27th
2 had JS1s on Oct 31st
3 had JS1s on Nov 3rd
2 had JS1s between Nov 10th - 14th (but not positive about this)

So if you had a JS1 after Nov 3rd, I wouldn't even begin to slightly worry. And if you had a JS1 prior to that, I still wouldn't even worry because there are so many people who haven't heard back with stellar numbers that you are in good company.

Great. I'm sitting with high-170s LSAT, great GPA, interviewed 3rd week of November and haven't heard a word. Hoping for next week!

[lawapp1]

So if I went complete early/mid December should I be worried about not getting a JS1 by now? I'm right around median for both GPA/LSAT and have above average softs etc.

[hillz]

So if I went complete early/mid December should I be worried about not getting a JS1 by now? I'm right around median for both GPA/LSAT and have above average softs etc.

nope. There have been people who submitted in Oct/Nov who are just now getting JS1s. Plus you have to remember that they were out of the office for the holidays.

[pylon]

So if I went complete early/mid December should I be worried about not getting a JS1 by now? I'm right around median for both GPA/LSAT and have above average softs etc.

I'd wait for a few more waves before starting to get worried. The wave yesterday was JUST starting to get to people with mid-December completes, in addition to those from Oct/Nov. So it's still early.

[w0w]

Lol, I submitted day two of apps opening and still haven't gotten a JS1. But I also haven't seen any JS1s at or below both my numbers so I'm chill. They literally have hundreds of JS1s to give out.

[Orion311]

What would you all estimate the medians are like for k-JDs? 3.87/173 are the medians for the whole class, but like 3/4s of them have work experience and I'm assuming k-JDs have to have higher stats. What would it take for a k-JD to be at their own medians?

Also, how would probabilities from websites like LSN compare? For example, say someone gets a 79% from mylsn but they're k-JD how much lower do you think their chances are?

[hillz]

What would you all estimate the medians are like for k-JDs? 3.87/173 are the medians for the whole class, but like 3/4s of them have work experience and I'm assuming k-JDs have to have higher stats. What would it take for a k-JD to be at their own medians?

Also, how would probabilities from websites like LSN compare? For example, say someone gets a 79% from mylsn but they're k-JD how much lower do you think their chances are?

I'm not sure it's necessarily true that you have to have higher stats if you're KJD. Could be more about softs & perceived maturity. Not sure how to find an answer the second question but it definitely would be interesting to know.

[pylon]

What would you all estimate the medians are like for k-JDs? 3.87/173 are the medians for the whole class, but like 3/4s of them have work experience and I'm assuming k-JDs have to have higher stats. What would it take for a k-JD to be at their own medians?

I don't think LSN would be helpful for this as you'd have to comb through every account. However, the applicant thread from last year could have some insight, albeit limited (filter and calculate medians of accepted with 0 years work experience, and then also of 1+ years work experience to compare).

[blueberrysmoothie]

What would you all estimate the medians are like for k-JDs? 3.87/173 are the medians for the whole class, but like 3/4s of them have work experience and I'm assuming k-JDs have to have higher stats. What would it take for a k-JD to be at their own medians?

Also, how would probabilities from websites like LSN compare? For example, say someone gets a 79% from mylsn but they're k-JD how much lower do you think their chances are?

There is no way you can find out how many K-JDs are in the applicant pool, or can you?

I think the question should be, what is the admission rate for K-JD with JS1? The answer can be compared with the average 75~80% passing rate of JS1. From what I hear, K-JD who received JS1 last year had a below average chance after JS1.

[foles]

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[Orion311]

What would you all estimate the medians are like for k-JDs? 3.87/173 are the medians for the whole class, but like 3/4s of them have work experience and I'm assuming k-JDs have to have higher stats. What would it take for a k-JD to be at their own medians?

Also, how would probabilities from websites like LSN compare? For example, say someone gets a 79% from mylsn but they're k-JD how much lower do you think their chances are?

There is no way you can find out how many K-JDs are in the applicant pool, or can you?

I think the question should be, what is the admission rate for K-JD with JS1? The answer can be compared with the average 75~80% passing rate of JS1. From what I hear, K-JD who received JS1 last year had a below average chance after JS1.

I did this very quickly so someone should check the math on this. I've been interested in the same question and since I'm sick and stuck in anyway, I pulled the data from last year's spreadsheet to see if we could make any comparisons- not too sure how reliable this is given the amount of self selection/people not finishing their submissions, but it's all we have. I selected everyone who answered "Yes" to getting an interview, filtered out URMs then sorted into K/JD vs. W/E. I'll let the numbers speak for themselves but the takeaway seems to be that K/JD is a significant disadvantage. If Harvard's overall applicant pool resembles the data we have, the K/JD JS1 pool has higher numbers than the W/E pool but lower chances of acceptances, and needs higher numbers to get accepted.

If I had to quantify it, K/JDs are at least 13% less likely to get JS2s after JS1s (conservative as I assume there are more rejections and W/Ls in the decision pending batch than acceptances). And that's with higher numbers.

Spreadsheet here- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1945747967

Thoughts?

Good work with the data! Those seem like reasonable conclusions. Although it is hard to be certain about things, especially when only 2 kJDs with interviews actually reported getting denied.

[foles]

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[foles]

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[lester]

My intuition would be that, because those with work experience can be evaluated, for the most part, on other more substantive measures of fitness than K-JDs can, we should think of it not that K-JD need higher numbers, but that those with work experience have leeway for lower numbers.

This would not explain K-JDs possibly doing worse after JS1s, but maybe the higher degree of differentiation that work experience lends is advantageous when they sort through the pool after a JS1.

[pylon]

My intuition would be that, because those with work experience can be evaluated, for the most part, on other more substantive measures of fitness than K-JDs can, we should think of it not that K-JD need higher numbers, but that those with work experience have leeway for lower numbers.

This would not explain K-JDs possibly doing worse after JS1s, but maybe the higher degree of differentiation that work experience lends is advantageous when they sort through the pool after a JS1.

I'm sorry but I'm not sure I follow this line of thinking... Isn't it the same thing?