ryszard wrote:
Sure that second scenario you described is possible, but I don’t think you've addressed my question. I’m not really concerned with possible reasons for admissions decisions regarding JR1s or WL-ing in individual cases. The question I originally posed was essentially empirical: does the lsn data from years past show that, of those applicants ultimately accepted from the waitlist, a majority had had JR1s prior to being waitlisted initially? I don’t see what’s so opaque about that; it certainly doesn’t require speculating about the reasons for any admissions decisions, only sorting through the profiles.
Not that it matters, but I personally haven’t received a JR1. I was wondering whether this put me at a disadvantage on the waitlist.
The lsn data isn't helpful for this info, because: 1. It doesn't list who got JR1s (some people mention it in their summaries, but not all), 2. Most people don't update their status after being placed on waitlist (esp. if they've been rejected), 3. The lsn pool is relatively small and is self-reporting - for all we know, every person who posted waitlist--> acceptance could be lying, etc.
Really, all we can do is speculate. But hey, if you'd like to go through every lsn profile to find out who got a JR1/waitlist, who didn't, and compile all that info, be my guest.