Post
by androstan » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:56 pm
The thing about GPA and LSAT. Sure, LSAT is a curved exam so there are only ~2600 LSATs above 170 each year. There are ~3000 seats in the top 10. So yes schools like Duke are interested in locking in those 170/1/2's early on. There can theoretically be any number of 3.8 GPA's. I don't KNOW if there are more 3.8's than 170's, but my guess is that there are.
But later on, off the waitlist, a school more or less knows its lineup and has locked in a fair number of LSATs at their target median. Taking a low LSAT at this point just moves the median from one person with a 170 LSAT to the next person with a 170 LSAT. Taking a low GPA at this point, however, can easily cost them a few hundredths of a GPA point. That's a small but tangible difference and this environment is insanely competitive. So it seems unlikely to get in off the WL by virtue of your LSAT.
Unfortunately LSATs are very discrete whereas GPAs are more continuous. So, although good GPA's are more plentiful, a school has to carefully consider taking someone with a GPA under their target median, because the admitted person at the median GPA and the person under him/her probably don't have identical GPAs. Unlike with the LSAT, where the median person and the next person probably have the same score anyway.
So splitters probably only get in off the WL in a strange scenario where the school's current median LSAT is only a few notches below someone with a higher LSAT. In this case taking a few people off the WL can be a big win for the school.
The reverse strategy, to ED in splitters early is riskier because you don't know what your pool is going to look like or who is going to withdraw. Still, it's an opportunity to lock in several people above your LSAT median, which lets you game your GPA by taking reverse splitters in RD. Still, seems very risky, and since admissions keep getting ever more competitive, people with low GPA/high lsat are going to be competing directly with people who have med GPA/high lsat.
