Harvard Waitlist 2013 Forum

[Lavitz]

What % of the current WL JS1's do you guys guess will be accepted ?

Like just WL-->JS1s or anyone on the WL who's gotten a JS1?

Last I checked, 67/98 people on the spreadsheet had a JS1. That's about 2/3rds. Even if we're an overqualified sample, I think it's safe to say that at least half the entire WL has received a JS1 by now.

On page 36, TripTrip posted some guesses for the total size of the WL as well as % admitted:

2011-2012: 28 Accept. Total WL: 130.
LSN percentage of app pool: 10.19% of 5,438
LSN percentage of admit pool: 15.49% of 865
Total size of the WL must have been more than 839 but less than 1276.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 181 on the low end, or 275 at the very most. (21.5% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)

So if there are actually something like 800 people on the WL this cycle and let's say 400 of them have had or will have had a JS1 by the 20th and around 200 are supposed to be admitted, I would have to say around 50%. However, tbh, all these numbers seem a little too high to me.

[Lavitz]

Is it bad to be wl no js1 at this point in the game or too early to tell?

Probably bad since they're supposed to be making decisions around the end of the month. But there's always the possibility they're sending out another batch of JS1s next week to be conducted during the week of the 20th. The more time that goes by next week without JS1s, the worse.

[TripTrip]

However, tbh, all these numbers seem a little too high to me.

I was chatting with LS2, and we actually hypothesized that those estimates may be on the low end for post-WL admits.

Subject: Harvard Waitlist 2013

Caveat to this information: the spreadsheet I am using (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=30) doesn't seem to be matching up to my manual searches on mylsn. My searches yield higher admit numbers when using 0-999.

Is it at least close? The information on mylsn from past cycles was most recently updated in September or so, so if people added or took down their apps since then there might be slight fluctuations. On the other hand, if there's a huge difference then there's probably something wrong with my site, because Regulus is usually on top of his stuff.

ETA: I checked and it does look like Reg's numbers are right... will try to figure out what's up and will let you know.

ETA2: The difference is because Reg's number don't include WL -> Admits and mine do. Difference in methodology

I agree with you about the sentiment though. It seems there may be more JS1s on the waitlist this year.

[Lavitz]

I was chatting with LS2, and we actually hypothesized that those estimates may be on the low end for post-WL admits.

I don't mean to doubt the numbers if that's what they say but I just find it strange that Harvard would need to admit one-third of its class off the waitlist. Even after being on TLS and knowing that they have an active WL, I would've never guessed it was that high.

ETA: I love that nickname. I can finally stop typing out LSATSCORES2012.

[TripTrip]

I don't mean to doubt the numbers if that's what they say but I just find it strange that Harvard would need to admit one-third of its class off the waitlist. Even after being on TLS and knowing that they have an active WL, I would've never guessed it was that high.

I don't disagree. Though really, it may just be a choice of strategy.

[Lavitz]

I don't disagree. Though really, it may just be a choice of strategy.

I know. Perhaps "need" wasn't the right word. It probably makes it easier to ensure they hit their targets exactly and maybe students admitted off the waitlist are more likely to accept, increasing their yield.

[lawschoolboundfuture]

When should we start hearing if we are off the waitlist?

[TripTrip]

When should we start hearing if we are off the waitlist?

On a Monday in mid to late May.

[helix23]

I love TLS

[TripTrip]

Whenever we talk about JS2s on a Monday, I can't help but think of I got Stripes.

[Lavitz]

After thinking about it some more, I think the ~400 JS1s number makes sense. Disclaimer: not a math major.

I see 27 JS1-->WL on the spreadsheet compared with 40 WL-->JS1s. They started the actual interviews on Wednesday, April 10th, right? So they've had 4 weeks of interviews, give or take a few days.

I'm guessing they conducted around 60 interviews a week because when I counted 57 slots for this week, the calendar looked pretty full. Plus that would be 10 hours a week for each interviewer and I think that sounds about right. So that would be 240 post-WL JS1s (60*4). So the ratio of those reflected on the spreadsheet (40) to the total (240) is 1:6. If that ratio holds for the pre-WL JS1s as well, the 27 on the spreadsheet would represent 162 pre-WL JS1s on the WL in total (27*6). 240 + 162 = 402.

Of course, they're also doing JS1s this week so it could easily exceed 400 if they've really been doing 60 a week for 4 weeks.

[MyNameIsFlynn!]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

[Lavitz]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

[broadstreet11]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

1 in 3 sounds sad. I wonder if Columbia and Chicago pulled a good number away from Harvard this year. They were throwing around some money.

[toothbrush]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

Damn. 1 in 3 sounds sad. I wonder if Columbia and Chicago pulled a good number away from Harvard this year. They were throwing around some money.

It's a much better chance than people in reg admit cycle. How is that sad ? I could speculate and say ~50% off the WL.

This is also a down cycle and schools with larger classes will have some trouble filling.

[eyfl]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

More than 170 ppl joined fb group last year between mid May and August - I'm assuming the majority of them were post-WL admits, so up to 200 WL admits per year makes sense (which gives us ~50% chance).

However, the chance is probably not the same for pre- & post-WL JS1s, so one group has higher than 50% chance and the other - lower (last year acceptance rate was higher for post-WL JS1s so could probably mean post-WL interviewees are more likely to get in).

[broadstreet11]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

Damn. 1 in 3 sounds sad. I wonder if Columbia and Chicago pulled a good number away from Harvard this year. They were throwing around some money.

It's a much better chance than people in reg admit cycle. How is that sad ? I could speculate and say ~50% off the WL.

This is also a down cycle and schools with larger classes will have some trouble filling.

During the reg admit cycle it's about 70% of the JS1s get a JS2.

[MyNameIsFlynn!]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

Damn. 1 in 3 sounds sad. I wonder if Columbia and Chicago pulled a good number away from Harvard this year. They were throwing around some money.

A 1 in 3 chance of getting into Harvard Law sounds pretty fucking good to me.

We also shouldn't assume a 100 percent yield rate. There are people who will ultimately choose a full ride at a T14 over H for example, so if H needs to fill 150 spots then they'll certainly admit more than that

[broadstreet11]

Historically, don't they pull about 150 off the WL? So roughly 1 in 3 JS1 on the WL gets JS2

Sounds reasonable to me. Although earlier on this page, TripTrip implied that it's more like 200 people getting admitted off the WL.

Damn. 1 in 3 sounds sad. I wonder if Columbia and Chicago pulled a good number away from Harvard this year. They were throwing around some money.

A 1 in 3 chance of getting into Harvard Law sounds pretty fucking good to me.

We also shouldn't assume a 100 percent yield rate. There are people who will ultimately choose a full ride at a T14 over H for
example, so if H needs to fill 150 spots then they'll certainly admit more than that

Oh definitely. Don't mean to sound ungrateful. This wait does weird things to people. I find myself looking for every speculation possible.

[toothbrush]

During the reg admit cycle it's about 70% of the JS1s get a JS2.

And as of last two years WL Js'1s was near 100%.

The speculation has come full circle again.

[mickeysevenn]

During the reg admit cycle it's about 70% of the JS1s get a JS2.

And as of last two years WL Js'1s was near 100%.

The speculation has come full circle again.

This is the most encouraging speculative conclusion and so I say we should go with this one. Hellooooo HLS!

[MyNameIsFlynn!]

This question is sort of premature (and sadly won't apply to all of us) but how many of y'all are planning to take H at sticker over T14 $$$ if accepted? How difficult of a decision will it be?

[BSC]

I'd probably take a minute to make sure I wasn't dreaming, then take H.

[Lavitz]

This question is sort of premature (and sadly won't apply to all of us) but how many of y'all are planning to take H at sticker over T14 $$$ if accepted? How difficult of a decision will it be?

Lol, you think you're being premature? I'm currently typing up the OP for a potential Harvard vs. Cornell w/150K decision thread.

[toothbrush]

This question is sort of premature (and sadly won't apply to all of us) but how many of y'all are planning to take H at sticker over T14 $$$ if accepted? How difficult of a decision will it be?

Lol, you think you're being premature? I'm currently typing up the OP for a potential Harvard vs. Cornell w/150K decision thread.

that can't be good for your psyche if you don't have those options..

womp womp