Last December's TLS guess curve vs this years Forum

[Sandro]

So last year it seemed over 75% of TLS projected a -11 curve or less (-10 etc, as referenced from a poll). It came out -14.

October10 was widely thought to be -12 and it was.


This year I would bet the consensus leans towards a -14 depending on # of questions. Seeing as last December's consensus was off by 3 or more what are your thoughts on this years consensus/curve?

[Anomaly]

I doubt anyone will change their December curve prediction in light of those irrelevant statistics you just mentioned.

[2011Law]

just created a poll. vote or die!

[Sandro]

I doubt anyone will change their December curve prediction in light of those irrelevant statistics you just mentioned.

Who said anything about getting people to change their predictions? I'm just tying to see what might account for such an off prediction

[confusedlawyer]

-13

[LawPlz]

I would have to say -12 or -13

The test being out of 102 should raise the actual number slightly higher as well right?

[Anomaly]

I doubt anyone will change their December curve prediction in light of those irrelevant statistics you just mentioned.

Who said anything about getting people to change their predictions? I'm just tying to see what might account for such an off prediction

k my fault. I'm hoping -16, but guessing -13.

[AshtonB]

-22.

[Pricer]

I heard from a guy that has a friend who knows a guy that overheard a guy from LSAC saying that the curve would be -10 and the entire game section is being thrown out, meaning a raw score of 69/79 is a 170.

[confusedlawyer]

I heard from a guy that has a friend who knows a guy that overheard a guy from LSAC saying that the curve would be -10 and the entire game section is being thrown out, meaning a raw score of 69/79 is a 170.

I also heard from a guy that has a friend who knows a guy that overheard a guy from LSAC saying that you eat rice using chopsticks.

[CurlyKat]

I heard from a guy that has a friend who knows a guy that overheard a guy from LSAC saying that the curve would be -10 and the entire game section is being thrown out, meaning a raw score of 69/79 is a 170.

hahaha
i'll drink to that

[joebloe]

I heard from a guy that has a friend who knows a guy that overheard a guy from LSAC saying that the curve would be -10 and the entire game section is being thrown out, meaning a raw score of 69/79 is a 170.

The sad part is that I want to believe this so badly.

[Ishotthedeputy]

-22.

I can only hope!

[typ3]

My impressions were drastically different than this forum.

I'm guessing the curve will be lower than October's due to the LR and RC sections, LG was a wash between 61 and 60. Not a huge change in difficulty imo.

I'm predicting a -11 curve.

[lifeaway1985]

I have a stupid question: when will we know the real curve?

[SchopenhauerFTW]

I have a stupid question: when will we know the real curve?

When we get our scores back. It includes the raw score conversion chart

[niederbomb]

Here's the problem: Last year, people guessed low because LSAC hadn't given a -14 test in quite a long time. Now, people are more likely to guess higher just because last year's December test was a -14. Thus, comparing this year's predictions to last year's as a way of determining the actual curve may be misleading.

[bartleby]

Here's the problem: Last year, people guessed low because LSAC hadn't given a -14 test in quite a long time. Now, people are more likely to guess higher just because last year's December test was a -14. Thus, comparing this year's predictions to last year's as a way of determining the actual curve may be misleading.

Yeah. a -10 curve on a 102 question test would truly be crushing, however. If we're talking about trends, why not talk about June 2007 when the "new" test was released and had that ridonk -8 curve.

Dec '10 - 102 questions - "new" test. -10 = -8 on 100 question test. Curiouser and curiouser.

[Sandro]

for those of us that have taken both October and December, I would venture to say that most of us feel there is no way December ends up a lower curve. In fact I think the LG pushes this test way harder. Nobody in Oct really wholly agreed that one section was super hard. This time the majority of people agree this LG was nuts.