The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread (GREY DEY 7/1) Forum

basedvulpes · Post by **basedvulpes** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:43 pm

Post removed.

Li'l Sebastian · Post by **Li'l Sebastian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:43 pm

Is there anyway to put reaction images from a folder on my hard drive or is it only links?

benwyatt · Post by **benwyatt** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:44 pm

Post removed.

oldercoldervoice · Post by **oldercoldervoice** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:44 pm

Aight I got stuck in a meeting but I'm on lunch now so here are my super fancy high-tech statistics for the day crowd

First the analysis of the poll results for release day:

oldercoldervoice wrote:I got bored and threw some statistics at basedvulpes' score release date question

First of all I had to manipulate the data because some clown put July 2nd, 2014 as the release date and, because I assume said clown doesn't really think the scores will arrive via time travel, I went ahead and changed that data point to reflect the year that it actually currently is.

Average answer was the 30th at 2:11 pm with a standard deviation of just under two days and a margin of error of 7/10ths of a day. What this really means is that ~65% of shitpoasters think the release date will be within two days of the 30th and we can say with 95% confidence that the average shitpoaster believes the score will come out sometime between late in the night of the 29th and early in the morning of the 1st.

HOWEVER, that's super fucking boring, so I am instead choosing to purposely misinterpret my data and state here with 95% confidence that scores are coming out sometime on the 30th. Take heed LSAC, the omniscient shitpoasters have spoken.

And the analysis based on actual past release dates:

oldercoldervoice wrote:Okay the average time to release scores for the last 11 years was 21 days from the date of the test (for all administrations, not just June), which would put us at the 29th. The margin of error is a little over one day, which means the 95% confidence guess for the actual release day would be sometime on the 28th, 29th, or 30th. Obviously this fails to account for the fact that the 28th is a Sunday, and will almost definitely not be the release date. So my official 95% confidence guess is either the 29th or the 30th.

In retrospect this is not revolutionary information but now it has statistics behind it so

Li'l Sebastian · Post by **Li'l Sebastian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:45 pm

benwyatt wrote:
basedvulpes wrote:
benwyatt wrote:
jumbocolumbo wrote:
Errbody's on lunch. We got breakfast, whats for lunch haters and waiters? Turkey sando with an orange here.

ETA: Navel for those of you wondering.
I'm eating salad, but it has sausage in it, so it's not THAT healthy
I bet it does
I need an adult.

He is an adult <3

tedofsandimas · Post by **tedofsandimas** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:45 pm

Wow it got creepy in here all of a sudden.

JaimeD15 · Post by **JaimeD15** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:46 pm

benwyatt wrote:
jumbocolumbo wrote:
Errbody's on lunch. We got breakfast, whats for lunch haters and waiters? Turkey sando with an orange here.

ETA: Navel for those of you wondering.
I'm eating salad, but it has sausage in it, so it's not THAT healthy

But it's still a salad.

benwyatt · Post by **benwyatt** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:46 pm

Post removed.

basedvulpes · Post by **basedvulpes** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:46 pm

Post removed.

benwyatt · Post by **benwyatt** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:47 pm

Post removed.

JaimeD15 · Post by **JaimeD15** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:48 pm

tedofsandimas wrote:Wow it got creepy in here all of a sudden.

You're only 4 away!

oldercoldervoice · Post by **oldercoldervoice** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:48 pm

To summarize:

Most shitpoasters think the release date will be within 2 days of the 30th, and the average shitpoaster thinks it will be sometime between late in the night of the 29th and early in the morning of the 1st

However, historical data suggest that shitpoasters are being somewhat overcautious in their assessment. If this year's release date conforms to the average of 21 days (and June tests almost always do) we can be confident of receiving our scores within one day of the 29th

JaimeD15 · Post by **JaimeD15** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:48 pm

basedvulpes wrote:
benwyatt wrote:I need an adult.
I'm a big boy

Why hello there, big boy. lol

Li'l Sebastian · Post by **Li'l Sebastian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:49 pm

oldercoldervoice wrote:Aight I got stuck in a meeting but I'm on lunch now so here are my super fancy high-tech statistics for the day crowd

First the analysis of the poll results for release day:

oldercoldervoice wrote:I got bored and threw some statistics at basedvulpes' score release date question

First of all I had to manipulate the data because some clown put July 2nd, 2014 as the release date and, because I assume said clown doesn't really think the scores will arrive via time travel, I went ahead and changed that data point to reflect the year that it actually currently is.

Average answer was the 30th at 2:11 pm with a standard deviation of just under two days and a margin of error of 7/10ths of a day. What this really means is that ~65% of shitpoasters think the release date will be within two days of the 30th and we can say with 95% confidence that the average shitpoaster believes the score will come out sometime between late in the night of the 29th and early in the morning of the 1st.

HOWEVER, that's super fucking boring, so I am instead choosing to purposely misinterpret my data and state here with 95% confidence that scores are coming out sometime on the 30th. Take heed LSAC, the omniscient shitpoasters have spoken.
And the analysis based on actual past release dates:

oldercoldervoice wrote:Okay the average time to release scores for the last 11 years was 21 days from the date of the test (for all administrations, not just June), which would put us at the 29th. The margin of error is a little over one day, which means the 95% confidence guess for the actual release day would be sometime on the 28th, 29th, or 30th. Obviously this fails to account for the fact that the 28th is a Sunday, and will almost definitely not be the release date. So my official 95% confidence guess is either the 29th or the 30th.

In retrospect this is not revolutionary information but now it has statistics behind it so

That seems pretty cool. Can you cross check that with the statistics on how many days early compared to the actual release date?

JaimeD15 · Post by **JaimeD15** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:49 pm

oldercoldervoice wrote:To summarize:

Most shitpoasters think the release date will be within 2 days of the 30th, and the average shitpoaster thinks it will be sometime between late in the night of the 29th and early in the morning of the 1st

However, historical data suggest that shitpoasters are being somewhat overcautious in their assessment. If this year's release date conforms to the average of 21 days (and June tests almost always do) we can be confident of receiving our scores within one day of the 29th

Historically are they released in business hours? Or in the middle of the night?

benwyatt · Post by **benwyatt** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:49 pm

Post removed.

oldercoldervoice · Post by **oldercoldervoice** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:50 pm

Also apparently the February 2014 scores were released on a Sunday so???? That's not entirely unprecedented

benwyatt · Post by **benwyatt** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:50 pm

Post removed.

oldercoldervoice · Post by **oldercoldervoice** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:51 pm

JaimeD15 wrote:
oldercoldervoice wrote:To summarize:

Most shitpoasters think the release date will be within 2 days of the 30th, and the average shitpoaster thinks it will be sometime between late in the night of the 29th and early in the morning of the 1st

However, historical data suggest that shitpoasters are being somewhat overcautious in their assessment. If this year's release date conforms to the average of 21 days (and June tests almost always do) we can be confident of receiving our scores within one day of the 29th
Historically are they released in business hours? Or in the middle of the night?

I don't have data on that. What info I could find just had dates.

Li'l Sebastian · Post by **Li'l Sebastian** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:51 pm

itascot1992 · Post by **itascot1992** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:51 pm

i just got my score!!!

JaimeD15 · Post by **JaimeD15** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:53 pm

itascot1992 wrote:i just got my score!!!

Die.

whacka · Post by **whacka** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:53 pm

itascot1992 wrote:i just got my score!!!

die

whacka · Post by **whacka** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:54 pm

JaimeD15 wrote:
itascot1992 wrote:i just got my score!!!
Die.

wow

oldercoldervoice · Post by **oldercoldervoice** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:54 pm

ruizdaw wrote: That seems pretty cool. Can you cross check that with the statistics on how many days early compared to the actual release date?

I can run that when I get home if anyone's interested, but honestly I don't know how useful that would be. LSAC's release date estimations are kind of all over the place.