Post
by creed » Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:17 pm
After reading a few threads on the test (TLS, Powerscore, 7Sage, Reddit), I'm going to offer some predictions. I get the sense that some intuitions about the test fester within particular threads and that their introduction into one place could be useful. I have also become interested in Julia Galef's recommendation of trying to assign probabilities to one's certainties (in order to be a clear communicator). So I'll do that also.
1) Our initial prediction of a very low curve was predicated on the conventional wisdom that easy LG = low curve. I think this test will challenge that given the wide consensus that RC was quite hard and LR had some curveballs. So I predict a -11/-12 curve. 65% certainty (45% for -11, 20% for -12. I'd put -10 at about the same odds as -12).
2) Judges' effect on other sections will matter more than its actual difficulty. Though it was rough, I do have the sense that one could narrow most of the questions down to two options. But Marx/Freud was a relatively easy section, and not getting to it could cost many takers points. 80% certainty.
3) Games scores will be represented best by a bell curve with two peaks. Although the games were quite easy if you are a games champ and if you are adept at writing out scenarios before attacking questions, they could be hard for brute forcers. A test with more brute force questions would have evened this divide. But questions that ask about impossible or possible combinations highly benefit board splitters. Many on various forums didn't finish for this reason. 80% certainty.
4) An item will be removed from scoring. My confidence is not high on this, but I think it's higher proportionally than the number of tests that have items removed. There were just a few really weird questions and some of the Judges answers that seemed right also seemed nearly contradictory. 35%.
Apart from those, most predictions seem common sense. LG was easiest, followed by 26 question LR, 25 question LR and RC. I suspect that your average ~173 scorer will do something like -0 LG, -2/-2 LR, -3 or -4 RC.
If any of this isn't kosher for the board, please tell me and I'll remove it.
