The Official October Waiter's Oasis Forum

SirArthurDayne · Post by **SirArthurDayne** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:28 pm

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mist4bison · Post by **mist4bison** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:29 pm

EnderWiggin wrote:
mist4bison wrote:
SirArthurDayne wrote:Going back to our politics discussion from a few days ago, what do you guys think about McCarthy announcing he won't seek the speakership? It looks like Paul Ryan is being pressured to take the gavel.
Watching CNN at work and of course this is all their covering. He's definitely being pressured, but just a week ago he said absolutely not. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
He also said No (through a spokesman) again this morning FWIW.

Yeah, his spokesperson did, but apparently, many Republican in the House have said today that he's considering it. Who knows.

ugg · Post by **ugg** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:30 pm

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ugg · Post by **ugg** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:31 pm

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TheProdigal · Post by **TheProdigal** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:32 pm

SirArthurDayne wrote:
McJimJam wrote:Meanwhile Reps are annoyed that Rand won't give up on the campaign and focus on the senate reelection. Really doesn't look like they want to take any chances with that Kentucky seat.
So when is the deadline for him to jump in the race for his Senate seat? Maybe he's playing it out as long as he possibly can.

He's already in, but he needs to be campaigning. Dems seem to be fielding a pretty good challenge with both Jack Conway and Adam Edelen as potential candidates. From what I've seen of him, Edelen is a phenomenal speaker, one of the best Southern Democrats since... Clinton, probably.

nlee10 · Post by **nlee10** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:32 pm

theugg wrote:Please die Tea Party. Seems like Trump might be helping.

Oh god. As a republican I would hate for him to be the nominee.

SirArthurDayne · Post by **SirArthurDayne** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:33 pm

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ltbenn · Post by **ltbenn** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:33 pm

having lived outside of the good 'ole USofA for the past six years, I seem to have fallen woefully out of touch with the political sphere...

...anyone have a good blog recommendation to catch me up?

cub1014 · Post by **cub1014** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:34 pm

I'd actually be interested in a poll to see political leanings of this thread along the following lines: -conservative -moderate conservative -moderate liberal -liberal or something like that.

But I agree. If Paul Ryan has ambitions beyond the House, he is wise not to seek the job. Unfortunately, the dysfunction of his party may compel him to take the speakership.

sanibella · Post by **sanibella** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:34 pm

Okay, I'm really happy, guys. My GPA is .04 more than I remembered. Sad that this thrills me but whatever.

ugg · Post by **ugg** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:35 pm

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SirArthurDayne · Post by **SirArthurDayne** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:35 pm

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ugg · Post by **ugg** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:37 pm

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cub1014 · Post by **cub1014** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:38 pm

If enough young people vote in the general election we won't have to worry about the influence of the Tea Party in the house anymore. However, gerrymandering.

TheProdigal · Post by **TheProdigal** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:39 pm

SirArthurDayne wrote:
TheProdigal wrote:
SirArthurDayne wrote:
McJimJam wrote:Meanwhile Reps are annoyed that Rand won't give up on the campaign and focus on the senate reelection. Really doesn't look like they want to take any chances with that Kentucky seat.
So when is the deadline for him to jump in the race for his Senate seat? Maybe he's playing it out as long as he possibly can.
He's already in, but he needs to be campaigning. Dems seem to be fielding a pretty good challenge with both Jack Conway and Adam Edelen as potential candidates. From what I've seen of him, Edelen is a phenomenal speaker, one of the best Southern Democrats since... Clinton, probably.
So you can run for both positions even if they are both in the same election year? I didn't think you could because in my state you can't do it for state elections.

Under Kentucky law you cannot appear on a ballot twice. Paul would have had to appear twice for the Presidential primary and the Senate primary, so it was a no good. He desperately tried to get a Republican majority in the Kentucky state house to replace that law, and failed.

So he convinced the Republican Party of Kentucky to switch from a primary to a caucus for Senate candidate selection, and agreed to pay for the increased cost (more than $1,000,000).

EnderWiggin · Post by **EnderWiggin** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:40 pm

theugg wrote:House leadership has been a nightmare for Republicans these past two years. Did you all see that Hannity interview begging Gingrich to come back???

where he compared the hypothetical situation to G. Washington coming out of retirement to be President? lol yes

galeatus · Post by **galeatus** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:40 pm

The registration deadline for the Dec LSAT has been moved to Nov.6 (Wheeeeeeey)

ugg · Post by **ugg** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:41 pm

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TheProdigal · Post by **TheProdigal** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:42 pm

cub1014 wrote:If enough young people vote in the general election we won't have to worry about the influence of the Tea Party in the house anymore. However, gerrymandering.

I don't have hard numbers in front of me, but if memory serves, Democratic candidates for the House totaled a significant majority of all votes cast for the House. And yet Republicans hold a commanding majority of seats.

Yay, gerrymandering.

The odds of Dems retaking the House in 2016 is essentially zero.

And the everpresent risk of Tea Party influence in Republican primaries (see: Cantor, Eric) mean that even moderate Republicans will not be reaching across the aisle any time soon.

cub1014 · Post by **cub1014** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:44 pm

TheProdigal wrote:
cub1014 wrote:If enough young people vote in the general election we won't have to worry about the influence of the Tea Party in the house anymore. However, gerrymandering.
I don't have hard numbers in front of me, but if memory serves, Democratic candidates for the House totaled a significant majority of all votes cast for the House. And yet Republicans hold a commanding majority of seats.

Yay, gerrymandering.

The odds of Dems retaking the House in 2016 is essentially zero.

And the everpresent risk of Tea Party influence in Republican primaries (see: Cantor, Eric) mean that even moderate Republicans will not be reaching across the aisle any time soon.

Your stats, yep, yep, yep.

EnderWiggin · Post by **EnderWiggin** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:45 pm

TheProdigal wrote:
cub1014 wrote:If enough young people vote in the general election we won't have to worry about the influence of the Tea Party in the house anymore. However, gerrymandering.
I don't have hard numbers in front of me, but if memory serves, Democratic candidates for the House totaled a significant majority of all votes cast for the House. And yet Republicans hold a commanding majority of seats.

Your point about the effect of drawing hyperpartisan districts that pack Dem-leaning voters into fewer districts still basically holds but this http://www.thenation.com/article/republ ... use-races/ says in 2014 Rs won 52% of the vote in House races but hold 57% of House seats.

LurkSoHard · Post by **LurkSoHard** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:47 pm

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TheProdigal · Post by **TheProdigal** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:48 pm

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... 2012-popu/

In 2012, Republicans took 49% of votes, 54% of seats. (Politifact notes that these percentages only reflect the Dem + Rep totals, and not votes cast for minor parties.)

ETA: So when I said "significant," I was mostly thinking about that ~1% advantage totaling more than a million votes.

EnderWiggin · Post by **EnderWiggin** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:53 pm

TheProdigal wrote:http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... 2012-popu/

In 2012, Republicans took 49% of votes, 54% of seats. (Politifact notes that these percentages only reflect the Dem + Rep totals, and not votes cast for minor parties.)

ETA: So when I said "significant," I was mostly thinking about that ~1% advantage totaling more than a million votes.

+1. Also have to consider how vastly different the electorate looks in Presidential vs Mid-term election years, so that variance between '12/'14 isn't too surprising.

SirArthurDayne · Post by **SirArthurDayne** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:01 pm

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