Admissions Probability ? Forum

[09042014]

Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.

You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.

That depends on whether you're talking about the union or the intersection. OP was asking about the union, I believe.

You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.

[WhatSarahSaid]

Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.

You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.

Damn, your fifth-grade math class was intense.

[WhatSarahSaid]

Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.

You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.

That depends on whether you're talking about the union or the intersection. OP was asking about the union, I believe.

You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.

There's a 40% chance he did and a 60% chance he didn't. If you add those up, there's a 100% chance that he did both simultaneously, which means that HE DEFIES THE LAWS OF EXISTENCE OH GOD LOG OUT WHILE THERE'S STILL TIME

[09042014]

You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.

There's a 40% chance he did and a 60% chance he didn't. If you add those up, there's a 100% chance that he did both simultaneously, which means that HE DEFIES THE LAWS OF EXISTENCE OH GOD LOG OUT WHILE THERE'S STILL TIME

TITCR

[tgir]

Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.

You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.

That depends on whether you're talking about the union or the intersection. OP was asking about the union, I believe.

You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.

No, actually. I've taken statistics. I might be remembering it wrongly, and I'm open to that possibility, but why do you have to be such a loudmouth jerk?

I'm also pretty sure that what matters is explaining things in a way that people understand, which is what I was trying to do. In any case, I'm pretty sure I'm right on this.

[IAFG]

why do you have to be such a loudmouth jerk?

http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 0&t=141949
^^ explains why

[Ragged]

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

[Pneumatic]

This is silly. You never have a % chance of admission because there is no random element to the process. Either you meet the criteria of the admissions committee or you do not. Granted, there can be a lot of variable at play depending on the school (date of submission, C+F responses, etc) but an admissions committee never puts all the applications in a bingo hopper and then pulls them out at random to decide acceptances.

The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.

[Bildungsroman]

This is silly. You never have a % chance of admission because there is no random element to the process. Either you meet the criteria of the admissions committee or you do not. Granted, there can be a lot of variable at play depending on the school (date of submission, C+F responses, etc) but an admissions committee never puts all the applications in a bingo hopper and then pulls them out at random to decide acceptances.

The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.

No.

[KevinP]

Desert Fox is right ofc assuming 25% acceptance rates and independence.

Even w/ his rounding error:
1 - .75^4 = .6835 which rounds to 68% not 69%

[09042014]

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.

[09042014]

This is silly. You never have a % chance of admission because there is no random element to the process. Either you meet the criteria of the admissions committee or you do not. Granted, there can be a lot of variable at play depending on the school (date of submission, C+F responses, etc) but an admissions committee never puts all the applications in a bingo hopper and then pulls them out at random to decide acceptances.

The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.

No.

[WhatSarahSaid]

The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.

I'd argue for a tiny amount of randomness, just because of the variability that can exist in someone's mood or state of mind while reading a PS/LoR. Obviously, this is minimal (and totally unimportant, since there's nothing anyone can do), but if we assume that adcomms are subject to biases and flaws (which I'm willing to), and they catch your application on a day during which they aren't feeling charitable (maybe they've just read several really annoying statements, or just read one incredible one to which yours pales in comparison), then randomness plays into the process a little bit (just going for four parenthetical phrases in one sentence).

[tgir]

Desert Fox is right ofc assuming 25% acceptance rates and independence.

Even w/ his rounding error:
1 - .75^4 = .6835 which rounds to 68% not 69%

I think that's probably right. Both calculation methods, the one I described and the one DF described, aim at adding up every probability except for the probability of zero acceptances. Arriving at it through his method (subtraction from one) is generally more convenient, but it does require independence. Plus, I think it lacks some of the illustrative value of the other approach. I'm pretty sure they both arrive at the same result, though.

[Nulli Secundus]

If you had to explain it for that long, its not random.

[Holly Golightly]

This whole thread is on meth.

[tgir]

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.

Not true. I'm only distinguishing between intersection and union because OP is interested in getting into one law school, not in the probability of getting into multiple law schools.

[Ragged]

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.

Ah right. Now I remember it had to do with sets and that was dependent. And if we assume they are dependent, and I'm inclined to think they are because of softs, then the problem is basicly unsolvable because we don't know either the nature or the degree of their dependence.

[Bildungsroman]

This whole thread is on meth.

CHANGE TAR BACK PLZ

[Holly Golightly]

THANK YOU for reminding me that there actually are subjects a hell of a lot more boring than teh lawls.

[09042014]

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.

Not true. I'm only distinguishing between intersection and union because OP is interested in getting into one law school, not in the probability of getting into multiple law schools.

OP is interested in getting into at least one law school. The probability of getting into only one is 42%.

[Holly Golightly]

This whole thread is on meth.

CHANGE TAR BACK PLZ

butbutbut...

I LOVE HER

--ImageRemoved--

[tgir]

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.

Not true. I'm only distinguishing between intersection and union because OP is interested in getting into one law school, not in the probability of getting into multiple law schools.

OP is interested in getting into at least one law school. The probability of getting into only one is 42%.

I'm aware of that. I too know how to multiply, and I did not mean one and only one law school. I give up--you have all the answers, DF.

[09042014]

I'm aware of that. I too know how to multiply, and I did not mean one and only one law school. I give up--you have all the answers, DF.

Was that so hard?

This thread is now a pic whoring thread. Post em if you got em.

[Bildungsroman]

I'm aware of that. I too know how to multiply, and I did not mean one and only one law school. I give up--you have all the answers, DF.

Was that so hard?

This thread is now a pic whoring thread. Post em if you got em.

Care to start us off, DF?