16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside) Forum

[onionz]

Looks like LSAC updated some data recently:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

Applications still down around 22% this year. Anyone have an updated breakdown of the drop of the 170+ test takers?

don't have that but at best 170+ it is 5-6% of the population that took the test. Of those that got 170+, some will be splitters; & and still others will not be applying this year. Hopefully that bodes well for the rest of us.

5-6% is a huge over-statement. In theory 170+ is less than 3% of the population, and with those applicants dropping more than others, it will likely be much smaller.

[justonemoregame]

I don't know the number of 170+s, but the number of December 2012 takers is reportedly supposed to be right around 30,000, a 16% decrease from last year, which is awesome if true, and maybe the lowest number since 1997-1998.

Would be great if someone had numbers from Feb-June-Oct-Dec this year compared to last year. I know last cycle, someone had all the 170s compared to the number of admits in the T14. I forget if it was here or on LSAT Blog, though.

Total # of LSATs administered in the last 4 exam periods: 115,381

in the 4 exam periods prior to that: 133,442

and prior to that: 157,143

and that: 171,877

Roughly 60,000 fewer tests given than a few years ago - that's like 7.5M in registration fees @ $125 per test - the recession was a nice little windfall

[HarlandBassett]

waiting for 170+ breakdown...

[LRGhost]

waiting for 170+ breakdown...

Same.

[francesfarmer]

Looks like LSAC updated some data recently:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

Applications still down around 22% this year. Anyone have an updated breakdown of the drop of the 170+ test takers?

don't have that but at best 170+ it is 5-6% of the population that took the test. Of those that got 170+, some will be splitters; & and still others will not be applying this year. Hopefully that bodes well for the rest of us.

5-6% is a huge over-statement. In theory 170+ is less than 3% of the population, and with those applicants dropping more than others, it will likely be much smaller.

LOL math. 170 is ~97th percentile.

[poichi]

The lag is three years, so as I understand it, those who took the LSAT in December 2012 are being directly compared with those who took the LSAT between December 2009 and 2012 for the purposes of the percentiles, and so on.

[NoodleyOne]

Please Harvard... how many 179s could there be?

[onionz]

Looks like LSAC updated some data recently:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

Applications still down around 22% this year. Anyone have an updated breakdown of the drop of the 170+ test takers?

don't have that but at best 170+ it is 5-6% of the population that took the test. Of those that got 170+, some will be splitters; & and still others will not be applying this year. Hopefully that bodes well for the rest of us.

5-6% is a huge over-statement. In theory 170+ is less than 3% of the population, and with those applicants dropping more than others, it will likely be much smaller.

LOL math. 170 is ~97th percentile.

I hope that this isn't directed at me.

[LRGhost]

Eh I'll do some numbers tonight of spots etc compared to previous cycles. Something to do

[KevinP]

Interesting read (Nothing new really, but still):
http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Publi ... 12_LSR.pdf

"December test registrations are running about 15 percent behind last year as well. If we
project this trend out to the remainder of the 2012–2013 testing cycle, it is possible that
the final number of tests administered will be between 110,000 (if the decline is 15 per-
cent) and 117,000 (if 10 percent)."

"In times of increasing and decreasing test taker and applicant volumes, LSAC often
receives queries from admission offices regarding differential changes across the
distributions of these populations (e.g., are there more or fewer high-scoring applicants
than expected this admission cycle?). LSAC staff are currently researching these distribu-
tional changes and will provide a full reporting of their findings."

[francesfarmer]

I hope that this isn't directed at me.

I agree with your comment. LOLmath is a general statement.

[poichi]

Interesting read (Nothing new really, but still):
http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Publi ... 12_LSR.pdf

LSAC's tone is quite bizarre, if not entirely unexpected. It's as if they will only be happy when every college student in the country is taking the LSAT the maximum number of times. "We can take some comfort in this"... "situation in Canada is rosier" ... It's not like people are dying, LSAC, you could at least pretend to be a detached observer.

[alwayssunnyinfl]

Interesting read (Nothing new really, but still):
http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Publi ... 12_LSR.pdf

LSAC's tone is quite bizarre, if not entirely unexpected. It's as if they will only be happy when every college student in the country is taking the LSAT the maximum number of times. "We can take some comfort in this"... "situation in Canada is rosier" ... It's not like people are dying, LSAC, you could at least pretend to be a detached observer.

They make boatloads off the administration of this test. Of course they want more people to take it.

[poichi]

They make boatloads off the administration of this test. Of course they want more people to take it.

What, do you have shares or something?

Of course I know that. I still pose the question, why not at least pretend like they're an impartial voice?

[alwayssunnyinfl]

They make boatloads off the administration of this test. Of course they want more people to take it.

What, do you have shares or something?

Of course I know that. I still pose the question, why not at least pretend like they're an impartial voice?

Most of the people who are going to read this will also be involved in the admissions process, and so are also going to see the drop in applications as having an important impact on their interests. Also, a lot of people in legal academia point out that, like in medicine, rural and poor Americans are severely lacking in their access to legal services. A drop in LSAT test takers and applications through LSAC would signal that this problem may only continue getting worse.

(I'm not saying I agree with that analysis. They should be focusing on making legal education more affordable if their end goal is to increase access.)

[poichi]

Most of the people who are going to read this will also be involved in the admissions process, and so are also going to see the drop in applications as having an important impact on their interests. Also, a lot of people in legal academia point out that, like in medicine, rural and poor Americans are severely lacking in their access to legal services. A drop in LSAT test takers and applications through LSAC would signal that this problem may only continue getting worse.

(I'm not saying I agree with that analysis. They should be focusing on making legal education more affordable if their end goal is to increase access.)

That makes sense, and I appreciate the context. I agree with you also, affordability and increased funding to legal services at state level seem like a much more appropriate solution, rather than trying to funnel ever-more students into law schools.

[wert3813]

.

[LRGhost]

waiting for 170+ breakdown...

Same.

http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 2&t=201994 Just cause you asked.

ty dood

[togepi]

If you're a splitter below a school's 25% gpa, what should the strategy be for this cycle when looking at LSATs? Is it going to be worth applying to schools where you're at their median LSAT or even one point shy? I'm just not sure what strategy to use.

TYIA

[ncc5]

If you're a splitter below a school's 25% gpa, what should the strategy be for this cycle when looking at LSATs? Is it going to be worth applying to schools where you're at their median LSAT or even one point shy? I'm just not sure what strategy to use.

TYIA

I think it depends on what the median LSAT is. If you have a 170+and that is what the median is, then I would say go for it. The LSAT is more important the higher the median gets, because schools are fighting over a smaller and smaller population to maintain the medians.

[2014]

If you're a splitter below a school's 25% gpa, what should the strategy be for this cycle when looking at LSATs? Is it going to be worth applying to schools where you're at their median LSAT or even one point shy? I'm just not sure what strategy to use.

TYIA

If you are at or above it, I'd consider it fair game but depends how far below median you are and what schools. Probably wouldn't waste the app fees on a school where you are below both, but if you have a waiver it is justifiable to throw them an app.

[happyshapy]

So far 93,229 people have taken the LSAT for the 2012-2013 cycle. Even if the same number of people take it in Feb as last year, which is doubtful, that's only around 115,000 total.

2010 had over 170,000...

[togepi]

If you're a splitter below a school's 25% gpa, what should the strategy be for this cycle when looking at LSATs? Is it going to be worth applying to schools where you're at their median LSAT or even one point shy? I'm just not sure what strategy to use.

TYIA

If you are at or above it, I'd consider it fair game but depends how far below median you are and what schools. Probably wouldn't waste the app fees on a school where you are below both, but if you have a waiver it is justifiable to throw them an app.

I was thinking more along the lines of T1/T2 schools where I'm at or one point below their LSAT median but below the GPA median

[HarlandBassett]

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... _in_droves

excerpt

Avoiding law school in droves

Karen Sloan

The National Law Journal

01-28-2013


Nearly everyone in legal education expected the number of law school applicants to fall off this academic year. But they weren't prepared for this.

As of mid-January, 27,891 people had applied for seats in American Bar Association-accredited law schools. That represented a 20 percent decline since last year (and 2012 was hardly a banner year itself, as the number of applicants fell by nearly 14 percent.) If the trend holds through the final months of the admission cycle, law schools would see a 38 percent crash since their peak in 2010.

"I am surprised by the extent of the decline," said University of St. Thomas School of Law professor Jerome Organ, who has been tracking law school enrollment and economic trends. "I had anticipated a decline, but possibly a more moderate decline than the last two years."

It looks like one for the record books: Upon seeing the application figures from the Law School Admission Council (LSAC), Ohio State University Michael E. Moritz College of Law professor Deborah Jones Merritt decided to research the last time U.S. law schools had attracted such a small applicant pool. She couldn't find records before 1983, but at no time during the past 30 years had the applicant totals slipped below 60,000. (There were 175 ABA-accredited law schools during the early 1980s; there now are 201.)

"I was pretty surprised when I looked back and saw the prospective applicant levels would bring us back to 1983," Merritt said. "There's a general sense people have that applications are cyclical, but I don't see any way for a quick rebound here."

It appears that the drop in applicants this year will be steeper than during the two previous years. At the present rate, between 53,000 and 54,000 applicants will vie for places in ABA-accredited schools this year, down from 68,000 in 2012.

Organ attributed the situation in part to the ABA's release last spring of detailed graduate employment statistics broken down by school. They showed that only 55 percent of 2011 law graduates had found permanent, full-time jobs that required bar passage within nine months. That may have persuaded some would-be law students to reconsider, he said.

"It's become clear that there is no chance of redemption for this cycle," said Sarah Zearfoss, senior assistant dean for admissions, financial aid and career planning at the University of Michigan Law School. "The December LSAT sitting is already over and there is no reason to think that there will be a larger-than-normal February sitting."

February is the last opportunity for prospective applicants to take the Law School Admission Test in time to meet this year's application deadlines. During the December sitting, nearly 16 percent fewer people took the test compared with 2011. Merritt said that most prospective law school applicants were starting their undergraduate educations during the Great Recession, as large firms were shedding associates and even partners in shocking numbers. That turmoil shattered the perception of the legal profession as a low-risk and lucrative career path. "I would be surprised to see applications go up again, unless there are major changes in the legal industry," Merritt said.

[Easy-E]

I didn't read the whole thing but I'm just gonna go ahead and assume it's good news for those waiting to get into Michigan. Don't tell me otherwise.