Will anyone crack the top 14? Forum

[NYC-WVU]

I was wondering which schools will move the most in USNWR rankings over the next ten years.
Will Yale drop to fifth, as many have predicted? Will Arizona State continue to rise?
More importantly, will UT, UCLA or Vandy crack the top 14. And if any of them do, what impact will it have on Duke, Northwestern, Cornell, Georgetown, etc.
What do you all think?

[secondshot]

As someone who is gunning for UCLA my question would be, what is UCLA doing to reach the T-14? I mean, are they taking certain steps to improve their program that would give them a bump? Curious to know who is doing what to justify their movement up, or down.

[Chekhov'sGun]

I was wondering which schools will move the most in USNWR rankings over the next ten years.
Will Yale drop to fifth, as many have predicted? Will Arizona State continue to rise?
More importantly, will UT, UCLA or Vandy crack the top 14. And if any of them do, what impact will it have on Duke, Northwestern, Cornell, Georgetown, etc.
What do you all think?

No

[Ramius]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

[PrideandGlory1776]

Barring massive mismanagement Yale is #1 in perpetuity.

No. There will be no other schools in the top 14.

No, it takes decades to build great institutions not years.

[pedestrian]

Will Brazil become the richest, most powerful country in the world? Will football fall to badminton? Will nurses make more than doctors? Will corn flakes regain its place as our most treasured breakfast cereal?

[manu6926]

...

[NYC-WVU]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

Are you sure that employment isn't affected by USNWR? For example, the firm where I work no longer interview students from certain regional schools in the area, despite the fact that many of the partners at my firm attended these schools, and despite the fact that our most recent hires from these schools have been excellent contributors to the firm. Therefore, I assume that our hiring decisions with respect to these schools has something to do with polling or rankings or something. Maybe not USNWR, but that's certainly the metric that gets thrown around the most.

[NYC-WVU]

Will Brazil become the richest, most powerful country in the world? Will football fall to badminton? Will nurses make more than doctors? Will corn flakes regain its place as our most treasured breakfast cereal?

1. No. Top ten maybe, but not #1.
2. Football will fall, but not to badminton.
3. No. It's harder to become a doctor, so the pay has to be higher to entice people to pursue this career.
4. Really tough question. I wasn't even aware that corn flakes had been dethroned.

[yossarian]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

Are you sure that employment isn't affected by USNWR? For example, the firm where I work no longer interview students from certain regional schools in the area, despite the fact that many of the partners at my firm attended these schools, and despite the fact that our most recent hires from these schools have been excellent contributors to the firm. Therefore, I assume that our hiring decisions with respect to these schools has something to do with polling or rankings or something. Maybe not USNWR, but that's certainly the metric that gets thrown around the most.

It's loosely USNWR. It wouldn't matter if USNWR existed though. Because jobs are so scarce, your firm can hire only the best students from the best schools. When there were plenty of jobs to go around, they might grab a few elite students/schools and fill the rest of their enormous summer classes with regional students. Now, with fewer summers to fill and more top school students fighting for fewer jobs, they can pull only from elite schools.

Call it USNWR. Call it all lawyers knowing HYSCCN are elite. Doesn't matter. It's not year to year ranking. It's the longterm value of these schools.

[Ramius]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

Are you sure that employment isn't affected by USNWR? For example, the firm where I work no longer interview students from certain regional schools in the area, despite the fact that many of the partners at my firm attended these schools, and despite the fact that our most recent hires from these schools have been excellent contributors to the firm. Therefore, I assume that our hiring decisions with respect to these schools has something to do with polling or rankings or something. Maybe not USNWR, but that's certainly the metric that gets thrown around the most.

It has literally nothing to do with usnwr and entirely to do with the availability of positions at your firm. Take the state of MN as an example...it used to be that there would be a smattering of William Mitchell, St. Thomas, and such grads along with t14 and UMN grads at the biggest firms in the twin cities. Nowadays? Give a hearty good luck to even UMN grads looking for MN big law gigs. It has nothing to do with rankings and simply to do with the fact that even top grads are searching desperately for jobs.

[Balthy]

Who the hell thinks Yale will fall to fifth?

[Tanicius]

Will Brazil become the richest, most powerful country in the world? Will football fall to badminton? Will nurses make more than doctors? Will corn flakes regain its place as our most treasured breakfast cereal?

Just wait until they build a space shuttle to commandeer our secret kinetic rod space station and use it on us. You'll be sorry you mocked the Federation.

[rad lulz]

.

[rayiner]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

Are you sure that employment isn't affected by USNWR? For example, the firm where I work no longer interview students from certain regional schools in the area, despite the fact that many of the partners at my firm attended these schools, and despite the fact that our most recent hires from these schools have been excellent contributors to the firm. Therefore, I assume that our hiring decisions with respect to these schools has something to do with polling or rankings or something. Maybe not USNWR, but that's certainly the metric that gets thrown around the most.

The hierarchy of schools within a region predates the rankings. People don't look to USNWR to tell them whether GULC is better than GW. The fact that GULC is ranked ahead of GW is a reflection of the hierarchy that exists, it doesn't cause that hierarchy.

[manu6926]

...

[Ramius]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

Are you sure that employment isn't affected by USNWR? For example, the firm where I work no longer interview students from certain regional schools in the area, despite the fact that many of the partners at my firm attended these schools, and despite the fact that our most recent hires from these schools have been excellent contributors to the firm. Therefore, I assume that our hiring decisions with respect to these schools has something to do with polling or rankings or something. Maybe not USNWR, but that's certainly the metric that gets thrown around the most.

The hierarchy of schools within a region predates the rankings. People don't look to USNWR to tell them whether GULC is better than GW. The fact that GULC is ranked ahead of GW is a reflection of the hierarchy that exists, it doesn't cause that hierarchy.

I think the causation here works both ways. There's a feedback loop with the existing hierarchy determining the rankings, and the rankings in turn influencing the hierarchy.

There is no factual basis to say this is wrong, but I tend to disagree. The sense of hierarchy is more likely stemmed from the long-standing air of "preftige" that exists in law. You could argue that the original rankings that formed the original sense of hierarchy could continue to affect the hiring of partners nationwide, but I think this is even somewhat far-fetched. The T14 are what they are because they were considered elite before any quantifiable measure deemed them elite. There would be no feedback loop in that.

[NYC-WVU]

The hierarchy of schools within a region predates the rankings. People don't look to USNWR to tell them whether GULC is better than GW. The fact that GULC is ranked ahead of GW is a reflection of the hierarchy that exists, it doesn't cause that hierarchy.

I can appreciate that this is true for schools that don't change in rankings. But what about the ones that do. Are law firms not going to reconsider Alabama, after it moved from the 40s ten years ago to the high 20s now? Or did the school's ranking change because law firms were reconsidering it?

[yossarian]

The hierarchy of schools within a region predates the rankings. People don't look to USNWR to tell them whether GULC is better than GW. The fact that GULC is ranked ahead of GW is a reflection of the hierarchy that exists, it doesn't cause that hierarchy.

I can appreciate that this is true for schools that don't change in rankings. But what about the ones that do. Are law firms not going to reconsider Alabama, after it moved from the 40s ten years ago to the high 20s now? Or did the school's ranking change because law firms were reconsidering it?

It changed because USNWR adjusted its rubric. Because they recruited slightly better students to work in the same market. They increased $/student. Lots of options. The option that employers saw the slight rise and started to preference it is probably not 100% wrong, but its effect is so marginal it is meaningless. Further, these employers would still be in AL's traditional placement region. Mostly the same employers in the same cities are employing the same students.

[Mal Reynolds]

UT tied for 14 a few years back, and guess what? Nothing changed! Forget usnwr, look at employment in the region you want to work, cost of attendance and nothing else. Almost all other considerations are pointless.

Are you sure that employment isn't affected by USNWR? For example, the firm where I work no longer interview students from certain regional schools in the area, despite the fact that many of the partners at my firm attended these schools, and despite the fact that our most recent hires from these schools have been excellent contributors to the firm. Therefore, I assume that our hiring decisions with respect to these schools has something to do with polling or rankings or something. Maybe not USNWR, but that's certainly the metric that gets thrown around the most.

The hierarchy of schools within a region predates the rankings. People don't look to USNWR to tell them whether GULC is better than GW. The fact that GULC is ranked ahead of GW is a reflection of the hierarchy that exists, it doesn't cause that hierarchy.

OMG never leave again. TLS needs your knowledge.

[03152016]

I was wondering which schools will move the most in USNWR rankings over the next ten years.
Will Yale drop to fifth, as many have predicted? Will Arizona State continue to rise?
More importantly, will UT, UCLA or Vandy crack the top 14. And if any of them do, what impact will it have on Duke, Northwestern, Cornell, Georgetown, etc.

I haven't heard anyone predict a drop in ranking for Yale. ASU isn't rising in the rankings; they've dropped two years in a row. Doubt UT/UCLA/Vandy makes their way into T14, but it wouldn't change much unless it's long-term and accompanied by a change in something actually meaningful -- employment numbers, reputation, etc. UT spending a year tied with GULC again won't make a difference to Cornell.

[NYC-WVU]

The hierarchy of schools within a region predates the rankings. People don't look to USNWR to tell them whether GULC is better than GW. The fact that GULC is ranked ahead of GW is a reflection of the hierarchy that exists, it doesn't cause that hierarchy.

I can appreciate that this is true for schools that don't change in rankings. But what about the ones that do. Are law firms not going to reconsider Alabama, after it moved from the 40s ten years ago to the high 20s now? Or did the school's ranking change because law firms were reconsidering it?

It changed because USNWR adjusted its rubric. Because they recruited slightly better students to work in the same market. They increased $/student. Lots of options. The option that employers saw the slight rise and started to preference it is probably not 100% wrong, but its effect is so marginal it is meaningless. Further, these employers would still be in AL's traditional placement region. Mostly the same employers in the same cities are employing the same students.

Ok. The same employers/same cities/same students is a very good point. But some of those cities are growing rapidly, while others are not growing, or even declining. Will that not effect rankings? My original question (mostly to myself) was how long can Texas (as a state) be kept out of the top ten? Currently, the top 14 doesn't include any schools south of Chicago between Raleigh and Berkeley. Is that sustainable? Business is booming in that enormous part of the country. Won't education follow it's lead, at least a little bit? Or maybe not. It's just a question.
It's interesting that nobody has made a prediction for any school rising or falling. Does no one have any ideas about this? I would sincerely be interested to know what people think. Even if you don't care about USNWR. What schools are better suited to improve the "quality" of their applicants?

[yossarian]

Ok. The same employers/same cities/same students is a very good point. But some of those cities are growing rapidly, while others are not growing, or even declining. Will that not effect rankings? My original question (mostly to myself) was how long can Texas (as a state) be kept out of the top ten? Currently, the top 14 doesn't include any schools south of Chicago between Raleigh and Berkeley. Is that sustainable? Business is booming in that enormous part of the country. Won't education follow it's lead, at least a little bit? Or maybe not. It's just a question.
It's interesting that nobody has made a prediction for any school rising or falling. Does no one have any ideas about this? I would sincerely be interested to know what people think. Even if you don't care about USNWR. What schools are better suited to improve the "quality" of their applicants?

USNWR doesn't factor employment enough for market variability to mean too much. ATL rankings do.

Texas is kept out of the t10, t14 because the schools don't have the same reputation. Better employment in TX alone won't help it develop a t14 reputation. Texas law employment has been (relatively) good for a while. For a southerner, UT for Texas law is a great option. But it is not the same in providing national career prospects as HYSCCN.

[pedestrian]

Based on past rankings, I'd say there's a small probability that UCLA, UT or Vandy will crack into T14 by replacing one of Cornell and Georgetown. But other than that, no.
It's possible that Harvard may overtake Yale in the future.

Harvard can't ever overtake Yale because it is nearly three times the size of Yale. Harvard matches Yale in the reputation score, but it will never have the same student:faculty ratio or spending per student. It is much cheaper to build a big building for 1800 people than to build three buildings that house 600 each. That is true of all of the fixed costs associated with running a law school.

In theory Yale could do something really dumb that would wreck its reputation, or Harvard could start handing out rolexes to incoming 1Ls, but it is far more likely that Stanford will permanently overtake Harvard.

[jbagelboy]

The only way another school would "Crack" the T14 is if they tossed out the current lame duck metric and started fresh.

"Reputation" keeps GULC afloat despite disappointing numbers year after year. If you tossed reputation and added a debt-to-%FT/JD-req/non-fellowship ratio, I could foresee another school (Vanderbilt, most likely) tying GULC in the USNWR rankings.

As it stands, however, that diploma mill actually gained a spot.