Employment situation really that dire? Forum

[MC Southstar]

I think it's iffy if you're below median outside of hys, or just average somewhere at the bottom of the t14 or below. or attending a school well below that period.

Otherwise, you'll be fine.

[TheFactor]

ITT MTal shows us examples of embarrassingly poor logic

[NZA]

ITT Every thread he posts in MTal shows us examples of embarrassingly poor logic

FTFY

[meatball122]

the apocalyptic outlook of TLS?

tbf, I think a lot of this comes from a very vocal minority. Nobody is really going from thread to thread telling everybody about how awesome his Cravath offer is in the same style as other posters going from thread to thread telling everybody how awful life is.

Whether this is true or not is exactly what Im trying to ascertain.

Two things:

1. Basically, just do your due diligence. The information is out there, you just can't expect to get information from schools and be able to rely on it. TLS is a good resource. Depending on your particular risk appetite, you'll have to judge what your cutoff is as far as what schools you would go to at sticker, or with half-scholly, etc.

2. Don't say you're in Afghanistan and that you only have 15 minutes on the Internet and then be posting for 45 minutes. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're just fortunate enough to get some extra time today. And, I thank you for your service. However, if you just said that as a way to avoid being called out for trolling, or whatever, that's pretty uncool.

Reasonable to call me out. Trolls annoy everyone. And, yes, I was able to use the internet longer than usual yesterday. There arent legitimate 15 minute blocks of time that you get, that's just the average amount of time that I can use the "civilians" white line before some Capt or Major kicks me or anyone else off to go on amazon or craigslist.

Im not going to ANY school at sticker. The GI Bill will cover a minimum of 17,500 per year and an additional housing allowance based on locality. Northwestern offers an additional 30k on top of that, which will be damn near full tuition. Other schools offer between 10-30k additional just like NU (it's called the Yellow Ribbon Program).

Because of the fact that I wont pay sticker ANYWHERE, my assumption is that my employment situation will be far less "do or die" so to speak. I will not necessarily be forced to chase the BigLaw firms in order to be able to afford my student loans. Honestly, BigLaw would be my goal anyhow, but if I were to not get an offer, it wouldnt be the end of the world to make 30k less a year since that wouldnt threaten my financial survival like it would many others.

But here's a question: I'd presume that there is a middle ground between doc review and big law? Why does no one ever talk about it? Am I wrong that the middle ground exists?

[Tiago Splitter]

But here's a question: I'd presume that there is a middle ground between doc review and big law? Why does no one ever talk about it? Am I wrong that the middle ground exists?

There is a middle ground, but it's fairly small. Keep in mind this graph only contains information for around half of law school graduates. We assume the majority of those who don't respond to the surveys are closer to the left mode than the right.



Here is the graph for the class of 2010:

[minnbills]

I think it's the lack of a middle ground that really makes things difficult. If most people eventually landed in 70/80k coming out of law school the debt would be sustainable. But substitute 30/40 for that and it's much more difficult to service 100k plus in debt.

[meatball122]

Both interesting posts for sure. Thank you.

Another question, before the legal market went "bust" a few ago, was the situation much better? Could this just be part of the cyclical economy? I wont graduate from LS for 3.5 years or so. I'd imagine the employment situation could change (for worse or better, naturally).

K, time's up. Time for more Afghan heat! (20 minutes this time...)

[Helmholtz]

Both interesting posts for sure. Thank you.

Another question, before the legal market went "bust" a few ago, was the situation much better? Could this just be part of the cyclical economy? I wont graduate from LS for 3.5 years or so. I'd imagine the employment situation could change (for worse or better, naturally).

K, time's up. Time for more Afghan heat! (20 minutes this time...)

When you graduate ≠ when you do OCI.

[NZA]

Both interesting posts for sure. Thank you.

Another question, before the legal market went "bust" a few ago, was the situation much better? Could this just be part of the cyclical economy? I wont graduate from LS for 3.5 years or so. I'd imagine the employment situation could change (for worse or better, naturally).

K, time's up. Time for more Afghan heat! (20 minutes this time...)

When you graduate ≠ when you do OCI.

Ugh...I'm doing OCI in one year. Probably right when the double dip hits.

[Tiago Splitter]

Both interesting posts for sure. Thank you.

Another question, before the legal market went "bust" a few ago, was the situation much better? Could this just be part of the cyclical economy? I wont graduate from LS for 3.5 years or so. I'd imagine the employment situation could change (for worse or better, naturally).

You can see the bimodal distribution existed in 2007, when things were much better, so expect that to be there indefinitely. If the economy picks up there might be more biglaw hiring, which will help things down the line, but graduates who miss the biglaw boat will typically end up with salaries south of 60K.

The other thing is that OCI happens after your first year, and most biglaw jobs are acquired through OCI. I'll be graduating law school in 2015, but the economy in the summer of 2013 is going to impact me the most.

[minnbills]

What kind of distribution do you think we're talking about for the T50? I mean, I know that at most non T14 first tier's biglaw % is lucky to reach 20, but to what extent is that graph watered down by poorly-regarded schools?

[NZA]

What kind of distribution do you think we're talking about for the T50? I mean, I know that at most non T14 first tier's biglaw % is lucky to reach 20, but to what extent is that graph watered down by poorly-regarded schools?

Well...no, this is the average salary for NALP. Presumably the graph wouldn't change at all, since it shows salaries by members of NALP.

You're looking for a graph that shows T14/T[random number] employment stats, which would be a different set of data entirely.

...I think.

ETA: There is something statistically off with your question, I think, but I can't tell exactly what it is.

[Tiago Splitter]

What kind of distribution do you think we're talking about for the T50? I mean, I know that at most non T14 first tier's biglaw % is lucky to reach 20, but to what extent is that graph watered down by poorly-regarded schools?

Well the 2010 graph only represents about 19,000 people, per NALP. My guess is that the graph includes a higher proportion of Tier 1 grads and a lower proportion of TTT grads, but that's just my guess. 18% of grads in the graph got 160K biglaw, which is about 3500 people. I believe I read that the NLJ250 only hires something like 7,000 people out of law school in the best years, and not all of those jobs pay 160K.

[minnbills]

Maybe I'm just really not understanding this, but if that graph has just about every law school in the country participating, then subtracting schools with perpetual less-than-stellar employment figures would change the overall distribution, maybe?

[NZA]

Maybe I'm just really not understanding this, but if that graph has just about every law school in the country participating, then subtracting schools with perpetual less-than-stellar employment figures would change the overall distribution, maybe?

Well...the way I'm thinking about those graphs is that the data shown are salaries for positions at firms. Granted, more T14 grads will hold the higher paying positions than other grads, but presumably, the positions would remain open even if, say, there were no such thing as the T14.

...does that make sense?

I guess think of it this way: the positions exist, and are filled. The graph shows the positions, and they could be filled by anyone from any school. Sooo...it's a one way street.

What you're looking for is employment data FROM schools TO jobs, whereas this information is employment data OF jobs, REGARDLESS of school.

Er...I think. I don't think I'm explaining myself well.

[Tiago Splitter]

Maybe I'm just really not understanding this, but if that graph has just about every law school in the country participating, then subtracting schools with perpetual less-than-stellar employment figures would change the overall distribution, maybe?

Not every school is participating. Maybe I am misunderstanding something, but NALP just says the graph represents 19,000 people. The percentage of people making 160K leads me to believe the first tier schools are over represented. I'd love to be wrong.

[minnbills]

Well...the way I'm thinking about those graphs is that the data shown are salaries for positions at firms. Granted, more T14 grads will hold the higher paying positions than other grads, but presumably, the positions would remain open even if, say, there were no such thing as the T14.

...does that make sense?

I guess think of it this way: the positions exist, and are filled. The graph shows the positions, and they could be filled by anyone from any school. Sooo...it's a one way street.

What you're looking for is employment data FROM schools TO jobs, whereas this information is employment data OF jobs, REGARDLESS of school.

Er...I think. I don't think I'm explaining myself well.

Not every school is participating. Maybe I am misunderstanding something, but NALP just says the graph represents 19,000 people. The percentage of people making 160K leads me to believe the first tier schools are over represented. I'd love to be wrong

Got it. I guess I thought those were total employment figures, not just jobs at law firms.

Yeah, that would confirm that of those firm jobs available, the distribution in salary is bimodal. And that is depressing. There are of course legal departments at corporations that hire fresh JDs that have competitive salaries. I know here in MN, Cargill hires people fresh out of school at about 130k to come and work in-house. NINJAEDIT: Though I'm guessing those jobs are few and far between anyways.

[Ty Webb]

This is completely anecdotal, but it goes to the point that every person/situation is unique.

I'm at a very good T2 with a strong hold on its large, growing market. I'm only top 25%. I had double digit screeners and I've received multiple callbacks. I feel very good about my chances at taking home an offer from one midlaw firm that will provide better QOL and better work quality, while paying just a small bit less than traditional biglaw.

Am I the walking contradiction to conventional wisdom? Maybe. The answer is that I chose a school in a good market that didn't have a ton of competition. I worked hard, did well enough, and I'm not a social retard. On top of being able to talk about sports at a screening interview, I developed a marketing strategy for myself to really SELL my strengths to potential employers. I meshed with a few and God willing, I'll have a couple of options.

I can't say what it's like for every other person who walks into an interview blindly and parrots the same stupid shit that every other law student is saying. Life may be more difficult there. For someone with a unique story and a unique voice to tell it, the economic situation is navigable.

[minnbills]

This is completely anecdotal, but it goes to the point that every person/situation is unique.

I'm at a very good T2 with a strong hold on its large, growing market. I'm only top 25%. I had double digit screeners and I've received multiple callbacks. I feel very good about my chances at taking home an offer from one midlaw firm that will provide better QOL and better work quality, while paying just a small bit less than traditional biglaw.

Am I the walking contradiction to conventional wisdom? Maybe. The answer is that I chose a school in a good market that didn't have a ton of competition. I worked hard, did well enough, and I'm not a social retard. On top of being able to talk about sports at a screening interview, I developed a marketing strategy for myself to really SELL my strengths to potential employers. I meshed with a few and God willing, I'll have a couple of options.

I can't say what it's like for every other person who walks into an interview blindly and parrots the same stupid shit that every other law student is saying. Life may be more difficult there. For someone with a unique story and a unique voice to tell it, the economic situation is navigable.

Good for you. I'd love to land at a smaller firm with a good salary (anything above 70k would be rosy) and real partnership prospects. I don't know, there's so much doom and gloom that it can be overwhelming.

[Patriot1208]

I just saw that abercrombie is offering 61k plus a signing bonus for bachelors, I will be applying now.

[dudders]

OP,

I'd recommend checking out:

http://www.lawschooltransparency.com/

The data are all self-reported from students, so don't expect it to be 100% accurate. However, the information on this website might be more accurate than statistics reported from law schools (especially Villanova, lulz).

Look at the data for schools that you are considering applying to, and ask yourself if a JD is a worthy investment.

I have a law school proxy network enabled on Mozilla (for journal purposes), and lawschooltransparency is BLOCKED. Holy shit.

I tried it on unproxied Safari and it works totally fine.

[minnbills]

What happened to the post that was right before dudders?

[Tiago Splitter]

What happened to the post that was right before dudders?

Dude I thought I was losing it.

[minnbills]

What happened to the post that was right before dudders?

Dude I thought I was losing it.

Glad I'm not the only one...

[Noval]

you could become the hot topic store manager, with a salary of prolly around 60k.

I doubt most Hot Topic managers even touch the $40k mark.

But the brother of my friend's friend knows someone who pulls 180k/year + benefits and bonus, therefore it's safe.

/end TLS 0L logic.