Front page NY times: massive app drop; schools in trouble; Forum

[LRGhost]

Government loans wouldn't be bad if their interest wasn't so insanely high. There's no need for 7%+ interest on a non-dischargeable loan. It's a shitty money-making scheme. For the longest times, we didn't have loans this high. It's not a boon to students. Privatizing everything doesn't solve the problem because now you have banks dictating which schools and candidates are worth funding. Assessing educational outcome is necessarily different and requires different judgement than assessing someone's ability to pay off a mortgage.

But even if you feel the government must be involved, people who in your mind would not have access to law school without government intervention are not being helped. No one benefits by getting a Cooley degree even if the 150k loan is interest free.

It isn't for banks (or lenders) to dictate which education is worth getting. We have enough of a fight here with whether or not CCN or MVP are worth it at sticker, do you think banks would do it any better? It would prohibitively prevent poor people from attending good schools past the cut-off point. And FWIW, there are a handful of people who benefit by getting a Cooley education.

The easy solution is to shut down 60-75% of schools. A person's economic stature shouldn't be a factor in their ability to pursue any education, but a school's ability to guarantee employment (with regards to law school) should absolutely dictate whether or not it exists.

IMO the problem with saying government should have no business in lending is that it is a complete overhaul of how education has been subsidized here and around the world. Instead, we can take the novelty (high interest rates) and eliminate that. Or the novelty of the surge of TTTs that are just cash grabs for their parent school.

[suralin]

ITT: BlaqBella tries to make a blanket statement that is simultaneously only "true for the most part", rankings are debated once more, and Miracle uses exclamation points like periods.

[Tiago Splitter]

You think banks will have a tough time figuring out how much to loan somebody for law school, but the government's "easy" solution is to just close down 60-75% of law schools. Which ones?

Your solution is better than what we have now, but it would still be a total disaster to implement and the lawsuits would go on for decades. And even when it was done, the schools that remain would continue doing exactly what they're doing, but the reduced competition would allow them to grow class sizes and raise tuition.

[Drake014]

You think banks will have a tough time figuring out how much to loan somebody for law school, but the government's "easy" solution is to just close down 60-75% of law schools. Which ones?

Your solution is better than what we have now, but it would still be a total disaster to implement and the lawsuits would go on for decades. And even when it was done, the schools that remain would continue doing exactly what they're doing, but the reduced competition would allow them to grow class sizes and raise tuition.

The best solution is for them to simply come up with a system to limit loan amounts. Then students will actually have to take money into account when making their school choice. Capitalism + reasonable regulations = best outcome.

[Tiago Splitter]

The best solution is for them to simply come up with a system to limit loan amounts. Then students will actually have to take money into account when making their school choice. Capitalism + reasonable regulations = best outcome.

Given that my solution is highly unlikely to come about I think this is the best of the realistic options. Let everybody have access to 20-30K in government guaranteed loans and then tell them they have to figure out the rest on their own. Schools would shit themselves, but that's the idea.

[ManOfTheMinute]

You think banks will have a tough time figuring out how much to loan somebody for law school, but the government's "easy" solution is to just close down 60-75% of law schools. Which ones?

Your solution is better than what we have now, but it would still be a total disaster to implement and the lawsuits would go on for decades. And even when it was done, the schools that remain would continue doing exactly what they're doing, but the reduced competition would allow them to grow class sizes and raise tuition.

The best solution is for them to simply come up with a system to limit loan amounts. Then students will actually have to take money into account when making their school choice. Capitalism + reasonable regulations = best outcome.

The loan limit system should be based off of your law school's earning potential -- ie, Cooley max loan amount: $1.73, HYS: None, everyone else in between

[LRGhost]

You think banks will have a tough time figuring out how much to loan somebody for law school, but the government's "easy" solution is to just close down 60-75% of law schools. Which ones?

Your solution is better than what we have now, but it would still be a total disaster to implement and the lawsuits would go on for decades. And even when it was done, the schools that remain would continue doing exactly what they're doing, but the reduced competition would allow them to grow class sizes and raise tuition.

The best solution is for them to simply come up with a system to limit loan amounts. Then students will actually have to take money into account when making their school choice. Capitalism + reasonable regulations = best outcome.

The loan limit system should be based off of your law school's earning potential -- ie, Cooley max loan amount: $1.73, HYS: None, everyone else in between

FWIW Tiago, I think you're reasonable and opening up 25-35k a year in regular government loans at 2% or whatever is fine and might control tuition, but it's this attitude, even though it's a joke, that would make private loans an impossible solution.

[LRGhost]

Michigan appears to be going downhill. I bet in the future they are ranked in the lower T-14, Georgetown drops out of the T-14, Duke becomes solidly ranked T-7-8 and UT-Austin/UCLA becomes a T-14.

Mich's results were shitty in the last available year (2011) because OCS told people to bid Chicago, a comparably small legal market that is notoriously hard to crack for people outside of Chicago. If they had bid New York and even DC, their numbers would have been better. We'll see how they do when new numbers come out. Duke will remain where ever it is. It won't become tied with Penn any time soon. GULC won't drop out of the T14 if they cut classes slightly; they still have better employment stats that UT-Austin and ULCA and Vandy. They also have greater lay prestige which actually matters in the ranking when people fill out the survey. Cornell stays 12/13 since they keep feeding into NYC at a clip above their ranking. Virginia will be a casualty if school-funded jobs aren't included in the new employment equation used by USNWR. MVP aren't peer schools. Virginia will fall solidly to 8th or 9th and have no danger of slipping further.

Also, can we talk about my 180 analysis that got buried?

But really, the implications for the T14 and acceptances this year and in the future rests on how schools respond to the decrease. Do they cut classes to maintain medians? Does this cost them more than they can afford in the long run? We don't know really know how schools are financed or how much of LS tuition goes to other programs. Last cycle, I think 3 schools had a notable decrease in class sizes. Also, why cut? Medians only have a relative value and it's not like anybody is going to make a huge jump by cutting classes while they school above them doesn't.

[ManOfTheMinute]

Michigan appears to be going downhill. I bet in the future they are ranked in the lower T-14, Georgetown drops out of the T-14, Duke becomes solidly ranked T-7-8 and UT-Austin/UCLA becomes a T-14.

Mich's results were shitty in the last available year (2011) because OCS told people to bid Chicago, a comparably small legal market that is notoriously hard to crack for people outside of Chicago. If they had bid New York and even DC, their numbers would have been better. We'll see how they do when new numbers come out. Duke will remain where ever it is. It won't become tied with Penn any time soon. GULC won't drop out of the T14 if they cut classes slightly; they still have better employment stats that UT-Austin and ULCA and Vandy. They also have greater lay prestige which actually matters in the ranking when people fill out the survey. Cornell stays 12/13 since they keep feeding into NYC at a clip above their ranking. Virginia will be a casualty if school-funded jobs aren't included in the new employment equation used by USNWR. MVP aren't peer schools. Virginia will fall solidly to 8th or 9th and have no danger of slipping further.

Also, can we talk about my 180 analysis that got buried?

You're really proud of yourself aren't you?

[LRGhost]

You're really proud of yourself aren't you?

Incredibly. Where do I collect my trophy?

[toothbrush]

You're really proud of yourself aren't you?

Incredibly. Where do I collect my trophy?

[Drake014]

You're really proud of yourself aren't you?

Incredibly. Where do I collect my trophy?

--ImageRemoved--

[LRGhost]

You're really proud of yourself aren't you?

Incredibly. Where do I collect my trophy?

--ImageRemoved--

i'm honoured ty guise

[Borg]

I feel bad for the law schools that are going to get shut down. What are they going to do? I think people should think twice before not applying because those law schools ar ejust trying to teach people to be lawyers and represent people who need help.

[toothbrush]

I feel bad for the law schools that are going to get shut down. What are they going to do? I think people should think twice before not applying because those law schools ar ejust trying to teach people to be lawyers and represent people who need help.

Really? Most of those people at the schools who may shut down are waiting tables - not helping people. And no one should apply to schools that aren't helping their students secure jobs.

[suralin]

I feel bad for the law schools that are going to get shut down. What are they going to do? I think people should think twice before not applying because those law schools ar ejust trying to teach people to be lawyers and represent people who need help.

[toothbrush]

I feel bad for the law schools that are going to get shut down. What are they going to do? I think people should think twice before not applying because those law schools ar ejust trying to teach people to be lawyers and represent people who need help.

did i just get trolled and missed it..

[dingbat]

Whether or not you receive an admission from Harvard, Sallie Mae cannot give someone a private loan with poor credit worthiness. Harvard or not.

I wasn't talking about Sallie Mae, I was talking about lenders in general. If you have an acceptance to Harvard, you will most definitely find a lender out there who will finance it. In the case where your credit is so bad that you cannot find a lender, then that is your own fault.

actually, this isn't true.

[jwinaz]

What % of the applicants/enrolling class of 2013 do you guys think are still unaware of the "law school scam" as they call it?

Do people think that pretty much everyone and their dog konws nowadays about the truth of bad employment statis with law schools?

[buddyt]

Whether or not you receive an admission from Harvard, Sallie Mae cannot give someone a private loan with poor credit worthiness. Harvard or not.

I wasn't talking about Sallie Mae, I was talking about lenders in general. If you have an acceptance to Harvard, you will most definitely find a lender out there who will finance it. In the case where your credit is so bad that you cannot find a lender, then that is your own fault.

actually, this isn't true.

Source?

[Borg]

I feel bad for the law schools that are going to get shut down. What are they going to do? I think people should think twice before not applying because those law schools ar ejust trying to teach people to be lawyers and represent people who need help.

Really? Most of those people at the schools who may shut down are waiting tables - not helping people. And no one should apply to schools that aren't helping their students secure jobs.

Yeah but sometimes people just decide that they don't want to be lawyers. There are lots of law school grads in the restaurant business actually. That's one reason why people say law degrees can be used for almost anything!

[WhiskeynCoke]

What % of the applicants/enrolling class of 2013 do you guys think are still unaware of the "law school scam" as they call it?

Do people think that pretty much everyone and their dog konws nowadays about the truth of bad employment statis with law schools?

You'd be shocked at the ability so many people have to utterly delude themselves. I have a few friends (more like acquaintances... otherwise I'd lovingly throttle them into coherence) here in the Bay Area who fully plan on attending the University of San Francisco and even Golden Gate University at sticker price and who will be taking out massive loans to do so. Somehow the whole "you're gonna pay $150k for a 33%/19% chance (USF/GGU) of getting ANY type of lawyering job" speech never sinks in. I give them the links to Law school transparency, Campos' blog, etc.... It's like playing tennis with a wall - the message never gets through.

A little research will reveal that the sharpest declines in applicants comes at the top of the LSAT score spectrum. People who do their research and who believe in evidence know whats up. Some people receive the message but just disregard all the warning sides... Special snowflakes that they are and whatnot....

[zebra6777]

Michigan appears to be going downhill. I bet in the future they are ranked in the lower T-14, Georgetown drops out of the T-14, Duke becomes solidly ranked T-7-8 and UT-Austin/UCLA becomes a T-14.

Mich's results were shitty in the last available year (2011) because OCS told people to bid Chicago, a comparably small legal market that is notoriously hard to crack for people outside of Chicago. If they had bid New York and even DC, their numbers would have been better. We'll see how they do when new numbers come out. Duke will remain where ever it is. It won't become tied with Penn any time soon. GULC won't drop out of the T14 if they cut classes slightly; they still have better employment stats that UT-Austin and ULCA and Vandy. They also have greater lay prestige which actually matters in the ranking when people fill out the survey. Cornell stays 12/13 since they keep feeding into NYC at a clip above their ranking. Virginia will be a casualty if school-funded jobs aren't included in the new employment equation used by USNWR. MVP aren't peer schools. Virginia will fall solidly to 8th or 9th and have no danger of slipping further.

Also, can we talk about my 180 analysis that got buried?

But really, the implications for the T14 and acceptances this year and in the future rests on how schools respond to the decrease. Do they cut classes to maintain medians? Does this cost them more than they can afford in the long run? We don't know really know how schools are financed or how much of LS tuition goes to other programs. Last cycle, I think 3 schools had a notable decrease in class sizes. Also, why cut? Medians only have a relative value and it's not like anybody is going to make a huge jump by cutting classes while they school above them doesn't.

Yes please, let's talk about the implications, rather than trying to solve the law school crisis on a L0 forum, lol.

Do we know for sure that the app numbers numbers are down for t14 schools? It would make sense that the numbers would be down for non-top 30 schools, where the chances of paying off 150k debt are insanely low. But why would they be down hardcore for t6 and t3, where you have LRAP programs and/or much better shot of landing a biglaw job to pay off your loans in several years. Or am I missing something?

[dingbat]

Whether or not you receive an admission from Harvard, Sallie Mae cannot give someone a private loan with poor credit worthiness. Harvard or not.

I wasn't talking about Sallie Mae, I was talking about lenders in general. If you have an acceptance to Harvard, you will most definitely find a lender out there who will finance it. In the case where your credit is so bad that you cannot find a lender, then that is your own fault.

actually, this isn't true.

Source?

actual knowledge of the banking industry. Unsecured debt it extremely risky and future income (depends on what field of study, but still) unsure enough that the risk premium would probably put the loans past the limits of usury laws.

[CFprez]

I think that no law schools should be cut. Massive layoffs? The elevator to law school prestige is broken? The writers in NYT must have it wrong.

After all, law school deans have
1) shown us that a law school degree can be used for anything like being an astronaut, or Barack Obama
2) by having "dynamic" clinics for 3L that train you how to make a McDouble
3) By Offering "scholarships" that are given to half the class that the other class pays for
4) By defending the right of law school professors to work only 10 hours a week to optimally prepare them for teaching
5) By granting access to poor/disadvantaged people by having special workshops that include amazing employment stats
6) Making time for law professors to write prefigous articles

With this I humbly submit that all law school deans are geniuses and deserve all the fancy watches in the world.