Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

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rhs67858

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Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by rhs67858 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:00 pm

Hi TLS Fam, back story is graduated 2016 and took the bar five times. July 2019 was my last time and studied full-time. Here is the breakdown:

Essay 1: 55 Civil Procedure: 51.6
Essay 2: 70 Constitutional Law: 44.9
Essay 3: 50 Contracts: 51.6
Essay 4: 55 Criminal Law: 73.2
Essay 5: 65 Evidence: 21.7
Essay 6: 55 Real Property: 34.8
Torts: 74.3

Raw Written: 405
Scaled Written: 1337.5185 Local: 49.7
Scaled MBE: 1442.0000 National: 53.8

TOTAL SCALED SCORE: 1389.7593

Question 1 = How do I tell if Scaled MBE 1442 is ok, good, or trash? I did a little searching and felt I was basically reading a foreign language as none of the search results made sense.

Question 2 = I work full-time but need to take the bar again because of how close I am fuck this. Should I sign up for Sept or whatever the hell is going on, or should I wait till Feb?

Thanks everyone. This is happening for me now--too damn close. I just need to organize all my stuff and figure out a plan. Also, ask me anything.

Best,
Ray

dabigchina

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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by dabigchina » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:44 pm

1. I would figure out what CA is doing for september, or if it is even possible for you to register at this point.
2. As for studying MBE, i believe 1442 is right on the edge in CA, so if you do a lot of practice problems, you should be ok.
3. As for the essays, i'm not sure why you have 2 scores on the essays? I would work on contracts(assuming you had time to put in a good faith attempt). Contracts essays are very formulaic because you always go through the elements of a contract (formation, etc), so repetition is key there (in my opinion).

rhs67858

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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by rhs67858 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:59 pm

dabigchina wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:44 pm
1. I would figure out what CA is doing for september, or if it is even possible for you to register at this point.
2. As for studying MBE, i believe 1442 is right on the edge in CA, so if you do a lot of practice problems, you should be ok.
3. As for the essays, i'm not sure why you have 2 scores on the essays? I would work on contracts(assuming you had time to put in a good faith attempt). Contracts essays are very formulaic because you always go through the elements of a contract (formation, etc), so repetition is key there (in my opinion).
Hey dabigchina,

1. CA decided to move it online, in Oct, and lower passing score to 1390. I am not sure if I will be ready by then. I won't. I don't know if Feb is still an exam too so will call and check. If yes then I will sign up for Feb.
2. Ok yes thank you. I know S&T released some new version this year so will buy that one, and get another adaptibar license.
3. Thank you regarding the Contracts advice. Actually, that second column are my MBE scores.

I appreciate you dabigchina!

rhs67858

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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by rhs67858 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:15 am

For dabigchina and/or anyone, as of right now I have the following:

- BarBri books July 2017/Feb 2018
- New S&T 7th on the way
- Miscellaneous substantive outlines and essays outlined (10-12) each subject
- Adaptibar

Questions:

1. Do I need newer BarBri books? Esp for PR law.
2. Where can I grab latest essays? Baressays.com or is there any other site that has essays from last five years?
3. What the best material to learn how to attack the PT?
4. Is critical Pass worth it or is that overloading?
5. Is there anything else out there that I could benefit from? I have only been out a year and will be working full-time when I take it again likely in Feb.

Thanks!

rhs67858

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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by rhs67858 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:35 pm

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JoeSeperac

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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by JoeSeperac » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:19 am

The PT was your biggest weakness. I attempted to convert your Written and Total Scores to the UBE Scale. I estimate your MBE was 0 UBE Points above passing, your MEE was -4 UBE Points below passing, and your MPT was -6 UBE Points below passing. I estimate your Total UBE Score would have been 278. Based on a total score of 278, your written score was 133.8, which would have placed you in the 31.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 68.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). This means you would likely pass the exam in most UBE states. Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 42.6% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 278 (meaning that 57.4% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

Following is my estimate of your raw J19 scores (based on 190 sub-scores from examinees). Please keep in mind that my MBE raw estimates are not exact. I calculate them by looking at all the different permutations in MBE subscores, but I still haven’t received enough scores to calculate all the permutations. Accordingly, you must take my estimates with a grain of salt because they could potentially be off by up to 7 questions.

Civil Procedure: Based on your percentile of 20.5, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 13/25 correct (52% correct);
Constitutional Law: Based on your percentile of 44.9, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 17/25 correct (68% correct);
Contracts: Based on your percentile of 51.6, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 17/25 correct (68% correct);
Criminal Law: Based on your percentile of 73.2, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 20/25 correct (80% correct);
Evidence: Based on your percentile of 21.7, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 14/25 correct (56% correct);
Real Property: Based on your percentile of 34.8, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 16/25 correct (64% correct);
Torts: Based on your percentile of 74.3, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 20/25 correct (80% correct);

Overall: While your scaled MBE score was 144.2, I estimate your total raw MBE score to be 117/175 correct based on my estimate of the J19 scale (66.9% correct). Please note that since NCBE no longer releases raw MBE scores, this is just a guess-timation and not based on an actual scale.

For this specific exam, you did better than 53.8% of examinees taking the MBE. Based on the national statistics on the MBE, your MBE score of 144.2 is in the 54% percentile for the MBE (based on July exams from 2011-present). This means that over the last 8 July exams, about 46% of examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 144.2.

You should use this information to correlate your exam MBE scores to your practice MBE scores. For example, if you were getting 70% correct on Civil Procedure questions in practice but scored 52% correct on the exam, you should find a better source of Civil Procedure MBE practice questions.

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice percentage (especially when they have done a large number of representative MBE practice questions). In your case, you answered about 67% correct on the MBE. Accordingly, I estimate that you likely answered about 65%-70% correct overall in your MBE practice (please let me know if this is inaccurate).

I created the following calculator to accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the J17-J19 CA bar exam administration based on the scores you enter (I will create an F20 calculator once I receive enough scores). J20 CA examinees can use the J19 calculator to test various scoring scenarios and estimate their J20 exam performance:

https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/

For example, based on my J19 CA calculator, if you scored 55s on each written item, you would need a 1640 MBE to pass J19. Based on my MBE calculator (https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-mbe-febjuly.php), a 1640 in July is about 81% correct.

rhs67858

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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by rhs67858 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:33 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:19 am
The PT was your biggest weakness. I attempted to convert your Written and Total Scores to the UBE Scale. I estimate your MBE was 0 UBE Points above passing, your MEE was -4 UBE Points below passing, and your MPT was -6 UBE Points below passing. I estimate your Total UBE Score would have been 278. Based on a total score of 278, your written score was 133.8, which would have placed you in the 31.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 68.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). This means you would likely pass the exam in most UBE states. Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 42.6% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 278 (meaning that 57.4% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

Following is my estimate of your raw J19 scores (based on 190 sub-scores from examinees). Please keep in mind that my MBE raw estimates are not exact. I calculate them by looking at all the different permutations in MBE subscores, but I still haven’t received enough scores to calculate all the permutations. Accordingly, you must take my estimates with a grain of salt because they could potentially be off by up to 7 questions.

Civil Procedure: Based on your percentile of 20.5, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 13/25 correct (52% correct);
Constitutional Law: Based on your percentile of 44.9, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 17/25 correct (68% correct);
Contracts: Based on your percentile of 51.6, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 17/25 correct (68% correct);
Criminal Law: Based on your percentile of 73.2, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 20/25 correct (80% correct);
Evidence: Based on your percentile of 21.7, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 14/25 correct (56% correct);
Real Property: Based on your percentile of 34.8, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 16/25 correct (64% correct);
Torts: Based on your percentile of 74.3, I estimate your raw MBE score to be 20/25 correct (80% correct);

Overall: While your scaled MBE score was 144.2, I estimate your total raw MBE score to be 117/175 correct based on my estimate of the J19 scale (66.9% correct). Please note that since NCBE no longer releases raw MBE scores, this is just a guess-timation and not based on an actual scale.

For this specific exam, you did better than 53.8% of examinees taking the MBE. Based on the national statistics on the MBE, your MBE score of 144.2 is in the 54% percentile for the MBE (based on July exams from 2011-present). This means that over the last 8 July exams, about 46% of examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 144.2.

You should use this information to correlate your exam MBE scores to your practice MBE scores. For example, if you were getting 70% correct on Civil Procedure questions in practice but scored 52% correct on the exam, you should find a better source of Civil Procedure MBE practice questions.

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice percentage (especially when they have done a large number of representative MBE practice questions). In your case, you answered about 67% correct on the MBE. Accordingly, I estimate that you likely answered about 65%-70% correct overall in your MBE practice (please let me know if this is inaccurate).

I created the following calculator to accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the J17-J19 CA bar exam administration based on the scores you enter (I will create an F20 calculator once I receive enough scores). J20 CA examinees can use the J19 calculator to test various scoring scenarios and estimate their J20 exam performance:

https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/

For example, based on my J19 CA calculator, if you scored 55s on each written item, you would need a 1640 MBE to pass J19. Based on my MBE calculator (https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-mbe-febjuly.php), a 1640 in July is about 81% correct.

Hey JoeSeperac,

I really appreciate you taking the time to lay this out for me. Gives me a better indication now that I recall how I studied.

In terms of studying:

1. I used Adaptibar and was averaging in the 90s for Torts and maybe one more. Remainder I was in the 80s. However, for Civ Pro I was in the 60s and property was around there too (likely low 70s). I have done so many questions that I recall, for example, seeing the Torts answers before finishing the question during prep. Likely not a good thing.

2. Essays I outlined between 12-15 per subject.

3. PT prep was pathetic.

Game day:

1. Was thrown off by Essay 1 Civ Pro as I did not review Discovery / Pleadings much. What's worse, Essay 3 I recall seeing a similar fact pattern in Crim Pro/Law essays during prep (skipped ahead to read), but by the time I reached it only had 30 mins left.

2. MBEs I felt good both sessions maybe guessed the last two.

3. PT I ran out of time and was unprepared. Might as well have been discussing militarization of S. Pacific for all graders knew.

I know what I need to do this time around. Writing the game plan now. I work full-time so will likely take Feb and take a month off prior but start studying now. I have the stamina and need to pass in Feb. I have an entire fresh Barbri MBE book from 2017/2018 so will likely work through those problems to get a different MBE taste. Although Barbri writing their own bothers me. I have S&T 7th coming so let's see how their Civ Pro prep looks. Appreciate you reading all this bro, and again, appreciate your help earlier!

JoeSeperac

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Posts: 462
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Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by JoeSeperac » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:30 am

rhs67858 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:33 am
I know what I need to do this time around. Writing the game plan now. I work full-time so will likely take Feb and take a month off prior but start studying now. I have the stamina and need to pass in Feb. I have an entire fresh Barbri MBE book from 2017/2018 so will likely work through those problems to get a different MBE taste. Although Barbri writing their own bothers me. I have S&T 7th coming so let's see how their Civ Pro prep looks. Appreciate you reading all this bro, and again, appreciate your help earlier!

Each MBE exam consists of a pre-determined assortment of easy, medium, and difficult-level questions. I believe the released NCBE questions represent the easy to medium difficulty questions an examinee will see on the MBE. Thus, if you are testing only on these questions and getting 60%-70% correct, you will generally answer 60%-70% of the easy to medium difficulty questions correctly on the MBE and maybe 40% of the difficult questions, leading to an MBE score in the 120-130s.I regard Barbri as representing the easy, medium and difficult questions. Thus, if you are testing only on Barbri questions and are 60%-70% correct, you can expect to do the same or better on the actual MBE.

Please keep in mind this is a generality. In the end, it really comes down to the examinee (intelligence/reading comprehension skills; how well they learn from their mistakes as they study; how long they study/practice; etc). For example, one examinee emailed me the following after the J17 exam: "I just received my scores from the July CBX and there is an odd percentage change in Contracts from February to July. In February, my percentage below for Contracts was 46.8 and in July .2 (yes, .2). How can this be? All of my other scores were consistent and I diligently used both Adaptabar and Barbri, completing at least 1500 questions between May and July. Moreover, I was scoring on par with Barbri's mixed sets (and of course, I did all of them)." The examinee scored a 127 on the MBE in F17 and a 129 on the MBE in J17 (whereas an examinee generally needs a 150 on the MBE in CA to pass and about a 140 in NY to pass). Accordingly, for this examinee, testing on the released NCBE questions along with Barbri did not help the examinee’s MBE score. Meanwhile, another examinee will do the exact same thing and get a 160 on the MBE. I see this happen all the time – one examinee will only do Barbri questions and get a 175 on the MBE while another examinee who only does Barbri questions will get a 120 on the MBE. Thus, while I regard some MBE questions as more important than others (see https://mberules.com/ope-643-mbe-questions/), it really comes down to the examinee and how they study/practice.

rhs67858

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Posts: 57
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:42 pm

Re: Just Saw My July 2019 CA Results. Questions?

Post by rhs67858 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:30 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:30 am
rhs67858 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:33 am
I know what I need to do this time around. Writing the game plan now. I work full-time so will likely take Feb and take a month off prior but start studying now. I have the stamina and need to pass in Feb. I have an entire fresh Barbri MBE book from 2017/2018 so will likely work through those problems to get a different MBE taste. Although Barbri writing their own bothers me. I have S&T 7th coming so let's see how their Civ Pro prep looks. Appreciate you reading all this bro, and again, appreciate your help earlier!

Each MBE exam consists of a pre-determined assortment of easy, medium, and difficult-level questions. I believe the released NCBE questions represent the easy to medium difficulty questions an examinee will see on the MBE. Thus, if you are testing only on these questions and getting 60%-70% correct, you will generally answer 60%-70% of the easy to medium difficulty questions correctly on the MBE and maybe 40% of the difficult questions, leading to an MBE score in the 120-130s.I regard Barbri as representing the easy, medium and difficult questions. Thus, if you are testing only on Barbri questions and are 60%-70% correct, you can expect to do the same or better on the actual MBE.

Please keep in mind this is a generality. In the end, it really comes down to the examinee (intelligence/reading comprehension skills; how well they learn from their mistakes as they study; how long they study/practice; etc). For example, one examinee emailed me the following after the J17 exam: "I just received my scores from the July CBX and there is an odd percentage change in Contracts from February to July. In February, my percentage below for Contracts was 46.8 and in July .2 (yes, .2). How can this be? All of my other scores were consistent and I diligently used both Adaptabar and Barbri, completing at least 1500 questions between May and July. Moreover, I was scoring on par with Barbri's mixed sets (and of course, I did all of them)." The examinee scored a 127 on the MBE in F17 and a 129 on the MBE in J17 (whereas an examinee generally needs a 150 on the MBE in CA to pass and about a 140 in NY to pass). Accordingly, for this examinee, testing on the released NCBE questions along with Barbri did not help the examinee’s MBE score. Meanwhile, another examinee will do the exact same thing and get a 160 on the MBE. I see this happen all the time – one examinee will only do Barbri questions and get a 175 on the MBE while another examinee who only does Barbri questions will get a 120 on the MBE. Thus, while I regard some MBE questions as more important than others (see https://mberules.com/ope-643-mbe-questions/), it really comes down to the examinee and how they study/practice.
Thanks, and yes agree completely. I actually believe Adaptibar is too easy, which is why enter Barbri questions simply because they're harder. Will probably do Adapitbar on my phone at work or before falling asleep and try to get none wrong. Barbri and S&T I will sit down, pencil in hand, and do full sets. I was looking through post bar notes I wrote to myself the day of MBEs and noticed I had written that the questions seemed to test on nuances. Nothing I had not seen before, but rather, concepts I would breeze through thinking this would will not likely be tested. One thing I'll probably do is write the rule statement of questions I miss. Fundamentally, I have holes in the BLL understanding and it keeps showing on exam day. Time to fills those.

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