The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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Bronxjd

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Bronxjd » Sat May 02, 2020 1:23 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Bronxjd wrote:Hi Joe, I would appreciate an analysis as well.

F2020 NY
MBE: 160.4
UBE: 311

Thanks!
Congrats Bronxjd! Based on your scaled MBE score of 160.4, your estimated raw MBE score was about 152/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 86.9% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 94.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 5.2% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 160.4 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 311, your written score was 150.6, which would have placed you in the 82.7% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 17.3% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 88.8% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 311 (meaning that 11.3% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

On the MBE, examinees usually score close to their MBE practice scores, especially if they have done a large number of MBE questions in practice. How many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?
Thanks Joe! I scored a 155 on the Barbri Sim and completed almost 800 questions on AdaptiBar, with about a high 60s correct rate. I honestly thought I failed after I left the MBE, but was pleasantly surprised.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Bronxjd » Sat May 02, 2020 1:32 am

Thanks Joe! I scored a 155 on the Barbri Sim and completed almost 800 questions on AdaptiBar, with about a high 60s correct rate. I honestly thought I failed after I left the MBE, but was pleasantly surprised.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm

Bronxjd wrote:Thanks Joe! I scored a 155 on the Barbri Sim and completed almost 800 questions on AdaptiBar, with about a high 60s correct rate. I honestly thought I failed after I left the MBE, but was pleasantly surprised.
Thanks for the followup. Based on your practice scores, I would have predicted an MBE score between 153-163 on the F20 exam (due to your very strong score on the Barbri Simulated Exam).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Mon May 04, 2020 4:18 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
suaverikky wrote:Hi Joe, Could you please tell me what my raw scores were in my Feb 2020 MBE?

I had a 145 in the February 2020 MBE Exam.

I passed the February Indiana bar Exam (Indiana doesn't tell you what your overall score is if you pass)

Jurisdiction: Indiana (Non-UBE) jurisdiction.

I am curious as to what my raw MBE score was.

If this helps, Indiana sent a NCBE MBE report and the report said my 145 score is in the 78.2 percentile.
Based on your scaled MBE score of 145, your estimated raw MBE score was about 130/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 74.3% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 71.5% percentile for the MBE. This means that 28.5% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 145 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

For F20, Indiana had the lowest pass rate in it's history, so great job. Were you a first-time taker or repeater? What materials did you use for the MBE?
Thanks Joe!

You are right Indiana”s Feb 2020 pass rate was the lowest on record. I was blessed this time!

Not even going to call myself some genius here, this was my 5th attempt taking the test and I finally passed!

My essays were always slightly above average but the MBE was my biggest albatross. I was so consistently horrible at it that I scored virtually the same score at least 3 different times. I remember scoring a 129, 130 and another 130. Talk about the brutality and consistency of the MBE in ferreting out folks doing the same ol same ol without changing tactics to address the monstrousity of the test.

I turned the ship around this time by spending 80% of my time doing MBEs and not even worrying about the local essay and the MPT.

This time I did (Kaplan MBE Q-bank Questions, Barmax questions which had all the Licensed MBE questions and I used questions from my Feb 2020 Barbri books as well). These were strictly online MBE questions except for the Barbri books which were paper based, no audio or video lecture whatsoever because I already had all the lectures and outlines from my previous attempts.

By the time I was done rotating all the question sets from these 3 companies, I had done about 3,500 Questions. Another thing I did differently was to copy and paste black letter laws from the right and wrong answers from the 3 test companies in a word doc and then studied the heck out of it!!! I.e knowing the pre-disposition rule of the entrapment doctrine in crim law, knowing the difference between regular COmmon law contracts and UCC contracts and what makes them different etc.

Another advantage in rotating these questions was that I got used to every shape and manner the questions were being asked, so when it was game day, I was less flummoxed than the previous attempts.

In my previous unsuccessful attempts I did about 1,500 questions from 1 single source (Barbri). Those previous times I used Barbri alone, this I got the consistent crappy 130 score.

This time, I used 3 different question sets from 3 sources. It’s unfortunate it took me 5 attempts to figure this out.

Quite a long epistle but I really hope this helps someone somewhere reading this.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by KKILL » Thu May 14, 2020 4:18 am

Hi Joe,

Could you also please break down my score? I am foreign-educated and sat the most recent administration. I was sick the night before the first day and walked out thinking I had blown it (I kind of did) but looks like the MBE saved my ass. My scores are below:

NY Feb 2020

MBE: 156.4
UBE: 282

Thank you Joe, really appreciate information and calculators that you provide.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Tue May 19, 2020 10:17 am

KKILL wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 4:18 am
Hi Joe,

Could you also please break down my score? I am foreign-educated and sat the most recent administration. I was sick the night before the first day and walked out thinking I had blown it (I kind of did) but looks like the MBE saved my ass. My scores are below:

NY Feb 2020

MBE: 156.4
UBE: 282

Thank you Joe, really appreciate information and calculators that you provide.
Yes, the MBE absolutely saved you. Congratulations on passing the F20 exam!

Based on your scaled MBE score of 156.4, your estimated raw MBE score was about 146/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 83.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 90.6% percentile for the MBE. This means that 9.4% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 156.4 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 282, your written score was 125.6, which would have placed you in the 23.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 76.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 57.3% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 282 (meaning that 42.8% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind a question, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by KKILL » Tue May 19, 2020 11:45 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:17 am
KKILL wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 4:18 am
Hi Joe,

Could you also please break down my score? I am foreign-educated and sat the most recent administration. I was sick the night before the first day and walked out thinking I had blown it (I kind of did) but looks like the MBE saved my ass. My scores are below:

NY Feb 2020

MBE: 156.4
UBE: 282

Thank you Joe, really appreciate information and calculators that you provide.
Yes, the MBE absolutely saved you. Congratulations on passing the F20 exam!

Based on your scaled MBE score of 156.4, your estimated raw MBE score was about 146/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 83.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 90.6% percentile for the MBE. This means that 9.4% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 156.4 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 282, your written score was 125.6, which would have placed you in the 23.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 76.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 57.3% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 282 (meaning that 42.8% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind a question, how many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?
Thank you Joe, much appreciated!

I believe it would have been around 3000.

I completed the BarMax course which contained approx 1300 questions plus the 4 OPE's making 1700. I finished with an average score of 77%. On the OPE's I scored 82%, 88%, 93% and 78% respectively.

I also completed Emanuel S&T (6th edition) which contains some crossover & the entire Emanuel FINZ book minus the practice exams.

Emanuel finishing average score was approx 85% and FINZ was lower, I think 70 - 75%. there was 600 and 1200 questions contained.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Tue May 19, 2020 1:11 pm

Hi Joe

Grateful if you could also provide an analysis of my scores:

New York Bar February 2020 Administration:

Total score: 314
Scaled MBE score: 162.9

Foreign educated and studied about 1.5 months full time.

Many thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Wed May 20, 2020 10:52 am

Hi Joe

Thanks for doing this! Would be you be able to tell me the percentiles for my scores.

New York Bar February 2020 Administration:

Total score: 323
Scaled MBE score: 173
MEE/MPT: 150

I used Themis and completed 100% of their course.

Thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Mon May 25, 2020 10:58 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:11 pm
Hi Joe

Grateful if you could also provide an analysis of my scores:

New York Bar February 2020 Administration:

Total score: 314
Scaled MBE score: 162.9

Foreign educated and studied about 1.5 months full time.

Many thanks!
Sorry for the delayed follow up. Congratulations on passing the F20 NY bar exam! I am going to guess you are Australian or Canadian.

Based on your scaled MBE score of 162.9, your estimated raw MBE score was about 156/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 89.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 96.3% percentile for the MBE. This means that 3.7% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 162.9 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 314, your written score was 151.1, which would have placed you in the 83.4% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 16.6% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 89.9% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 314 (meaning that 10.2% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

Did you do anything special for your MBE study?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Mon May 25, 2020 11:00 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:52 am
Hi Joe

Thanks for doing this! Would be you be able to tell me the percentiles for my scores.

New York Bar February 2020 Administration:

Total score: 323
Scaled MBE score: 173
MEE/MPT: 150

I used Themis and completed 100% of their course.

Thanks!
Congratulations on getting a very high MBE score! Based on your scaled MBE score of 173, your estimated raw MBE score was about 170/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 97.1% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 99.5% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.5% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 173 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 323, your written score was 150, which would have placed you in the 81.8% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 18.2% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 90.7% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 323 (meaning that 9.4% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE).

For Themis, how many questions did you answer overall for MBE practice and what was your % correct?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Mon May 25, 2020 3:07 pm

Hello @JoeSeperac. I failed the Georgia Bar.

MBE: 133
Essays: 127

Total of 260 (270 is passing).

I was scoring roughly 65-67% correct on adaptibar leading up to the exam (1800 questions). Approximately how many questions did I get right on the MBE?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:12 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:07 pm
Hello @JoeSeperac. I failed the Georgia Bar.

MBE: 133
Essays: 127

Total of 260 (270 is passing).

I was scoring roughly 65-67% correct on adaptibar leading up to the exam (1800 questions). Approximately how many questions did I get right on the MBE?

I'm sorry to hear that you failed the F20 GA bar exam.

Based on your scaled MBE score of 127, your estimated raw MBE score was about 104/175 correct (based on the last time an MBE scale was released in 2013). This means you answered about 59.4% of the graded MBE questions correctly. This places you in the 26.9% percentile for the MBE. This means that 73.1% of Feb examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 127 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 260, your written score was 133, which would have placed you in the 40.9% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 59.1% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 33.9% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 260 (meaning that 66.1% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

The 20 year pass rate for February GA examinees is 62%, so you need to be better than about 38% of examinees to pass, but on the most objective part of the exam (the MBE), you were better than only 27% of examinees nationwide. How many questions did you answer in practice, from what sources (e.g. Barbri, Kaplan, Adaptibar, NCBE) and what was your overall % correct?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Lukky » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:52 am

Hi Joe,

Not sure if this has been asked before, but, since you have data about the number of questions that people have done with different test prep companies, have you noticed any trends?

Was curious if one testing company (like Adaptibar) emerges superior when it comes to analyzing MBE efficiency.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:00 pm

Lukky wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:52 am
Hi Joe,

Not sure if this has been asked before, but, since you have data about the number of questions that people have done with different test prep companies, have you noticed any trends?

Was curious if one testing company (like Adaptibar) emerges superior when it comes to analyzing MBE efficiency.

I will give you the standard lawyer answer - it depends.

I have seen examinees use Adaptibar and get a 160 on the MBE while others use it and get a 120. The same can be said for Barbri, Kaplan, Themis, etc

My current rule of thumb is that is that whatever your overall% correct in MBE practice, you can generally expect about the same or a little bit better with Barbri, Kaplan, Themis questions or about 5% worse with Adaptibar/Emmanuel/NCBE questions.

For example, if you are 60% correct overall with Barbri questions, I would estimate an MBE of about 130-137. In contrast, you were scoring 60% overall with Adaptibar, I would predict an MBE score of 125-130.

https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-mbe-febjuly.php

Please keep in mind that everyone is different and these assessments are ROUGH ESTIMATES. Some examinees tell me they were at 60% overall with Barbri and they will score a 160 on the MBE, so you can never say a particular outcome will result from a particular score.

I can give you a better idea of how you are expected to perform on the exam (to determine whether you are at-risk of failing) if you enter your demographic information into my UBE Score Estimator:

http://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

If you submit your email along with the form, I can then provide you with statistical outcomes based on released NYBOLE and NCBE data.

A current project of mine is to collect detailed info on failing examinees who subsequently pass and then try to match their responses/statistics to others in the most comparable failing position.

http://seperac.com/postexamform.php

Once I have enough data, I think this will yield the most accurate "advice" for a specific examinee.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Medicine » Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:53 pm

Dear Joe:
I have a question. I truly appreciate any advice you can give me. I am taking the Virginia Bar Exam this July. Recently the Virginia Board of Bar Examiners announced that applicants can opt to take the exam (essay part only) in September. They must achieve a minimum raw score of 64 out of 100. The score will not be scaled. I would like to know what you think of this option.

I am registered to take only the Essay Exam in July and to have a previous MBE score of 136 transferred to Virginia so in terms of studying and preparation I do not lose or gain anything except another two months from today until the September exam, rather than two weeks for the July exam.

The only con I can think of is that the September option will not have the essay score scaled. If I take the September Exam I must attain a minimum raw score of 64 out of 100. If the test is particularly difficult the score will not be boosted by the scaling process and if it is particularly easy it will not be scaled down.

My scaled score on the Virginia Essay Exam in February was 135. Do you have any idea what that might translate to in a raw score out of 100? With all the preparation I have done I should certainly be able to do better than I did in February. I would just like to know how I scored then in absolute terms without scaling. What are your thoughts regarding the September option?

Thank you for you help.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:29 pm

Medicine wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:53 pm
Dear Joe:
I have a question. I truly appreciate any advice you can give me. I am taking the Virginia Bar Exam this July. Recently the Virginia Board of Bar Examiners announced that applicants can opt to take the exam (essay part only) in September. They must achieve a minimum raw score of 64 out of 100. The score will not be scaled. I would like to know what you think of this option.

I am registered to take only the Essay Exam in July and to have a previous MBE score of 136 transferred to Virginia so in terms of studying and preparation I do not lose or gain anything except another two months from today until the September exam, rather than two weeks for the July exam.

The only con I can think of is that the September option will not have the essay score scaled. If I take the September Exam I must attain a minimum raw score of 64 out of 100. If the test is particularly difficult the score will not be boosted by the scaling process and if it is particularly easy it will not be scaled down.

My scaled score on the Virginia Essay Exam in February was 135. Do you have any idea what that might translate to in a raw score out of 100? With all the preparation I have done I should certainly be able to do better than I did in February. I would just like to know how I scored then in absolute terms without scaling. What are your thoughts regarding the September option?

Thank you for you help.

Hi. Sorry for the late reply. Since 2010, I've only received scores from 6 VA examinees. It's my understanding that VA only gives you the Essay/Short Answer Scaled Score, the Multistate Scaled Score, and the Combined Weighted Total (CWT). This makes it impossible to determine raw/scaled conversions. As states go, Virginia is not very transparent in their grading process. Some bar examiners opt against transparency to deters lawsuits (both meritorious and frivolous). For example, an examinee in Virginia who suffered a software failure once tried to take his case to the Supreme Court of the United States but lost:

http://jonathanbolls.blogspot.com/

Scaling leads to a more reliable score. For example, prior to July 2012, Michigan scaled the essays to the MBE. Then, for the July 2012 exam, the Michigan Board of Law Examiners changed the grading formula and stopped scaling the raw essay points on the Michigan portion of the bar exam. From what I have read on this, the Michigan bar examiners felt the quality of the Michigan examinees' essays was diminishing, but their MBE scores were improving, resulting in higher pass rates due to the better MBE scores coupled with the scaling of essay scores to the MBE. What has likely happening was that Michigan examinees were focusing on the MBE portion of the exam at the expense of the written portion. Since the written portion was scaled to the MBE using an equating method, the overall decline in performance on the essay portion was masked by the MBE equating. In one of the articles I read, the Michigan Board of Law Examiners were complaining that the examinee essays were pretty poor as compared to prior years. Thus, the Michigan bar examiners stopped scaling their essays to the MBE in July 2012. However, this resulted in a precipitious drop in the July 2012 Michigan pass rates (between 1995-2011 the July pass rate was about 75% and then the July 2012 pass rate was 57% - the lowest it had even been prior to that was 59% in 1995). What happened after that is exactly what was predicted by NCBE – the pass rates between July and February started becoming consistent, even though the pool of candidates in July were considered more knowledgeable (between 1995-2011 the July pass rate was about 75% while the Feb pass rate was about 67%; for the period between 2012-2014, July pass rate was about 61% while the Feb pass rate was about 62%). By not scaling, the 2012-2014 February Michigan examinees were passing the exam at a higher percentage than July examinees who should be more knowledgeable. In July 2014, Michigan flip-flopped and went back to scaling essays (likely to stop giving an unintended advantage to February examinees).

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