2018 February CA Bar Forum

[Nightcrawler]

I have a question regarding scaling [...]

You may want to take a look at this thread: http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 1&t=287748

I, like you, am going crazy thinking about May 18th results so reading that will at least make 10-20 minutes pass faster. Good luck to all of us waiting!

[JoeSeperac]

I pulled the following information, and while this is just a single example, it appears to disprove the conclusion that a lower mean scaled MBE score in one administration will mean that the written portion will be subject to a tougher scale.

July 2014 Scaled Written Score: (Raw written score x 3.1098) - 469.4400

February 2014 Scaled Written Score: (Raw written score x 3.1584) – 460.6635

You are right. In 2014, the scale was better in Feb. I don't know why. Was there a change to the exam at that time?

Generally, the lower the mean scaled MBE score, the lower the scale. For example, look at this calculator of Colorado J17 and F17 scores. The scale is 5 UBE points better for J17 examinees:
https://ubeessays.com/2017-colorado-ube ... alculator/

If more CA examinees send me their J17 CA scores, I can make a calculator now and then update it with F18 so you can compare the scales. My email is joe @ seperac.com

I can also give you a breakdown of your MBE subscores. The form to submit this information is here:
http://seperac.com/subscoreform.php

For example, if your J17 Civ Pro %tile was 46.4, you probably answered 16/25 Civ Pro MBE questions correct (64% correct). With this % correct, you can compare how you did in practice versus the actual exam. For example if you were getting 40% correct on Civ Pro MBE practice questions but got 64% on the MBE, your Civ Pro outline/study materials were probably more helpful to your Civ Pro MBE score than the Civ Pro MBE practice questions you used, and so you should focus on those Civ Pro outlines/study materials on your next attempt while replacing the Civ Pro MBE practice questions with a better source of Civ Pro MBE practice questions. The stats aren't earth-shattering, but they can definitely help you fine-tune your studies after you do a post-mortem of your failing attempt. For example, I can tell you how many MBE questions you were away from 1440 on the MBE.

[redmessengerbag]

I pulled the following information, and while this is just a single example, it appears to disprove the conclusion that a lower mean scaled MBE score in one administration will mean that the written portion will be subject to a tougher scale.

July 2014 Scaled Written Score: (Raw written score x 3.1098) - 469.4400

February 2014 Scaled Written Score: (Raw written score x 3.1584) – 460.6635

You are right. In 2014, the scale was better in Feb. I don't know why. Was there a change to the exam at that time?

Generally, the lower the mean scaled MBE score, the lower the scale. For example, look at this calculator of Colorado J17 and F17 scores. The scale is 5 UBE points better for J17 examinees:
https://ubeessays.com/2017-colorado-ube ... alculator/

If more CA examinees send me their J17 CA scores, I can make a calculator now and then update it with F18 so you can compare the scales. My email is joe @ seperac.com

I can also give you a breakdown of your MBE subscores. The form to submit this information is here:
http://seperac.com/subscoreform.php

For example, if your J17 Civ Pro %tile was 46.4, you probably answered 16/25 Civ Pro MBE questions correct (64% correct). With this % correct, you can compare how you did in practice versus the actual exam. For example if you were getting 40% correct on Civ Pro MBE practice questions but got 64% on the MBE, your Civ Pro outline/study materials were probably more helpful to your Civ Pro MBE score than the Civ Pro MBE practice questions you used, and so you should focus on those Civ Pro outlines/study materials on your next attempt while replacing the Civ Pro MBE practice questions with a better source of Civ Pro MBE practice questions. The stats aren't earth-shattering, but they can definitely help you fine-tune your studies after you do a post-mortem of your failing attempt. For example, I can tell you how many MBE questions you were away from 1440 on the MBE.

As I anxiously await scores, I can't help but try to read forums just so I can understand the scoring a bit.

Is it correct to say that the lower the scaled mean on the MBE (which could be because of more difficult exam or lower quality test takers, or combination of two), the harder it is to for test takers to pass? (i.e., will ultimately result in lower scores). I am not use to this because the bell curves often use in university classes, when the mean is lower, it's typically better/easier on the test takers at least in my experience it has. The lowered scaled MBE is worse for our essays scores, thus lowering our scores and ultimately, chances to pass?

I can submit my J17 scores shortly, studying only about 10 12 good days of studying didn't work out too well....I don't think I was that far off though. hopefully I got it this time, but who knows, I was certainly much more prepared in comparison to last time.

[a male human]

I pulled the following information, and while this is just a single example, it appears to disprove the conclusion that a lower mean scaled MBE score in one administration will mean that the written portion will be subject to a tougher scale.

July 2014 Scaled Written Score: (Raw written score x 3.1098) - 469.4400

February 2014 Scaled Written Score: (Raw written score x 3.1584) – 460.6635

You are right. In 2014, the scale was better in Feb. I don't know why. Was there a change to the exam at that time?

Generally, the lower the mean scaled MBE score, the lower the scale. For example, look at this calculator of Colorado J17 and F17 scores. The scale is 5 UBE points better for J17 examinees:
https://ubeessays.com/2017-colorado-ube ... alculator/

If more CA examinees send me their J17 CA scores, I can make a calculator now and then update it with F18 so you can compare the scales. My email is joe @ seperac.com

I can also give you a breakdown of your MBE subscores. The form to submit this information is here:
http://seperac.com/subscoreform.php

For example, if your J17 Civ Pro %tile was 46.4, you probably answered 16/25 Civ Pro MBE questions correct (64% correct). With this % correct, you can compare how you did in practice versus the actual exam. For example if you were getting 40% correct on Civ Pro MBE practice questions but got 64% on the MBE, your Civ Pro outline/study materials were probably more helpful to your Civ Pro MBE score than the Civ Pro MBE practice questions you used, and so you should focus on those Civ Pro outlines/study materials on your next attempt while replacing the Civ Pro MBE practice questions with a better source of Civ Pro MBE practice questions. The stats aren't earth-shattering, but they can definitely help you fine-tune your studies after you do a post-mortem of your failing attempt. For example, I can tell you how many MBE questions you were away from 1440 on the MBE.

As I anxiously await scores, I can't help but try to read forums just so I can understand the scoring a bit.

Is it correct to say that the lower the scaled mean on the MBE (which could be because of more difficult exam or lower quality test takers, or combination of two), the harder it is to for test takers to pass? (i.e., will ultimately result in lower scores). I am not use to this because the bell curves often use in university classes, when the mean is lower, it's typically better/easier on the test takers at least in my experience it has. The lowered scaled MBE is worse for our essays scores, thus lowering our scores and ultimately, chances to pass?

I can submit my J17 scores shortly, studying only about 10 12 good days of studying didn't work out too well....I don't think I was that far off though. hopefully I got it this time, but who knows, I was certainly much more prepared in comparison to last time.

Yes, the MBE scaled score is supposed to (assumed to) take into account the difficulty of the MBE. CA only needs 1440 points (average of written and MBE scaled scores). If it's harder to get a given scaled MBE score, the test takers needs to get more points on the written side. So it is harder to pass if the NCBE insists on giving lower scores for the "same" performance.

[redmessengerbag]

Yes, the MBE scaled score is supposed to (assumed to) take into account the difficulty of the MBE. CA only needs 1440 points (average of written and MBE scaled scores). If it's harder to get a given scaled MBE score, the test takers needs to get more points on the written side. So it is harder to pass if the NCBE insists on giving lower scores for the "same" performance.

Very interesting. So the lower scaled average essentially means that the NCBE though this F18's MBE was an easier test, thus people should have gotten more right, but they didn't, thus lowering the mean scaled score (less rewarding scale). I suspect they don't publish methodology as how they "scale" each exam, which is very suspect. Is there a reason why Feb consistently scale lower than Jul? Should that be the case if all the test are equalized?

Anyhow, I thought J17 MBE was easier than than F18 MBE, which really bugs me. By easier I mean, I thought there were many more questions on F18 that came down to two very close choices.

[a male human]

Yes, the MBE scaled score is supposed to (assumed to) take into account the difficulty of the MBE. CA only needs 1440 points (average of written and MBE scaled scores). If it's harder to get a given scaled MBE score, the test takers needs to get more points on the written side. So it is harder to pass if the NCBE insists on giving lower scores for the "same" performance.

Very interesting. So the lower scaled average essentially means that the NCBE though this F18's MBE was an easier test, thus people should have gotten more right, but they didn't, thus lowering the mean scaled score (less rewarding scale). I suspect they don't publish methodology as how they "scale" each exam, which is very suspect. Is there a reason why Feb consistently scale lower than Jul? Should that be the case if all the test are equalized?

Anyhow, I thought J17 MBE was easier than than F18 MBE, which really bugs me. By easier I mean, I thought there were many more questions on F18 that came down to two very close choices.

Yeah, who knows what the methodology involves exactly... That's beyond my scope of knowledge.

But February test takers generally don't do as well as July for various reasons. If the tests are truly equalized, then it does make sense that the mean Feb score is lower; people do worse than in July.

I'm more concerned about the dipping trend across the years, the slow deflation of the mean score. Is that because students are "less able," or are they grading harsher, or something else?

[mem2608]

I can donate a few past CA essays 75/80 range. Finally passed July 2017 CA bar, good luck to everyone taking it and don’t give up.

Hello, hard-working citizens.

I'm looking for essay donations from the July 2017 exam because the free essay bank that I maintain is bare for that exam. In fact, it's the only administration I don't have any donations for yet.

Would any kind souls be willing to scan or take photos of their returned essays, for science? This is not for me; it's for your fellow students and future generations who want to stand on the shoulders of giants. Please PM me for where to send (or if you're a guest user of TLS, you may have to click around a bit to find my email), or I can reach out to you. Thanks in advance.

I can't do it before the CBX, but I will send you mine from the July 2017 next week when I get back. Do you want my PT also? I received a 75/80 on first and second review.

Hey love4vinolaw! Since I can't PM you anymore, just quoting you and hoping you'll see this as a reminder You can find my contact in this post http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... #p10298321

Thanks!

[a male human]

I can donate a few past CA essays 75/80 range. Finally passed July 2017 CA bar, good luck to everyone taking it and don’t give up.

Hello, hard-working citizens.

I'm looking for essay donations from the July 2017 exam because the free essay bank that I maintain is bare for that exam. In fact, it's the only administration I don't have any donations for yet.

Would any kind souls be willing to scan or take photos of their returned essays, for science? This is not for me; it's for your fellow students and future generations who want to stand on the shoulders of giants. Please PM me for where to send (or if you're a guest user of TLS, you may have to click around a bit to find my email), or I can reach out to you. Thanks in advance.

I can't do it before the CBX, but I will send you mine from the July 2017 next week when I get back. Do you want my PT also? I received a 75/80 on first and second review.

Hey love4vinolaw! Since I can't PM you anymore, just quoting you and hoping you'll see this as a reminder You can find my contact in this post http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... #p10298321

Thanks!

Fantastic! Congrats (long overdue) and please email any essays you have to brian [x] makethisyourlasttime.com. Thanks mem2608.

[maxmartin]

Yes, the MBE scaled score is supposed to (assumed to) take into account the difficulty of the MBE. CA only needs 1440 points (average of written and MBE scaled scores). If it's harder to get a given scaled MBE score, the test takers needs to get more points on the written side. So it is harder to pass if the NCBE insists on giving lower scores for the "same" performance.

Very interesting. So the lower scaled average essentially means that the NCBE though this F18's MBE was an easier test, thus people should have gotten more right, but they didn't, thus lowering the mean scaled score (less rewarding scale). I suspect they don't publish methodology as how they "scale" each exam, which is very suspect. Is there a reason why Feb consistently scale lower than Jul? Should that be the case if all the test are equalized?

Anyhow, I thought J17 MBE was easier than than F18 MBE, which really bugs me. By easier I mean, I thought there were many more questions on F18 that came down to two very close choices.

More people took the exam, the easier the scale.

[FIETTS]

Anyone else get a Bar Survey by email?

[Nightcrawler]

[...]I'm more concerned about the dipping trend across the years, the slow deflation of the mean score. Is that because students are "less able," or are they grading harsher, or something else?

I don't know if students are "less able" as I didn't look much into all that "lower LSAT scores = lower bar pass rates" but one thing is for sure: the exam is getting harder. Adding Civ Pro to the MBE is the most blatant sign. Then, there is the political reluctance in favor of slightly lowering the cut score which confirms that the exam now is more about limiting licenses rather than protecting the public from some lawyers that are not minimaly competent. Hopefully I'll pass before they'll add some other unnecessary extra requirement to the table

[a male human]

[...]I'm more concerned about the dipping trend across the years, the slow deflation of the mean score. Is that because students are "less able," or are they grading harsher, or something else?

I don't know if students are "less able" as I didn't look much into all that "lower LSAT scores = lower bar pass rates" but one thing is for sure: the exam is getting harder. Adding Civ Pro to the MBE is the most blatant sign. Then, there is the political reluctance in favor of slightly lowering the cut score which confirms that the exam now is more about limiting licenses rather than protecting the public from some lawyers that are not minimaly competent. Hopefully I'll pass before they'll add some other unnecessary extra requirement to the table

Definitely, I'd want to leave it behind ASAP before multiple choice turns into multiple guess. I hear the essays are more prone to crossovers, too.

BTW, the "less able" is from an old controversial memo from 2014, where the president of the NCBE called students "less able":

https://www.dropbox.com/s/a703sxc7apns7 ... o.pdf?dl=0

[JoeSeperac]

[...]I'm more concerned about the dipping trend across the years, the slow deflation of the mean score. Is that because students are "less able," or are they grading harsher, or something else?

I don't know if students are "less able" as I didn't look much into all that "lower LSAT scores = lower bar pass rates" but one thing is for sure: the exam is getting harder. Adding Civ Pro to the MBE is the most blatant sign. Then, there is the political reluctance in favor of slightly lowering the cut score which confirms that the exam now is more about limiting licenses rather than protecting the public from some lawyers that are not minimaly competent. Hopefully I'll pass before they'll add some other unnecessary extra requirement to the table

I use the 25th Percentile LSAT and 75th Percentile LSAT as a barometer for pass rates. If the Average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org/). This is how it looks for incoming classes from 2010 to 2016:



I agree that Civ Pro caused problems but that has balanced itself out. NCBE used to release the MBE subscores and then stopped doing it just prior to the introduction of Civ Pro on the MBE. At the time, NCBE claimed that the subscores were being eliminated because they weren't useful. Personally, I believe they removed the subscores because they knew there would be abnormalities with Civ Pro (e.g. an examinee would score well on all the MBE subjects except Civ Pro). Then in Feb 2017, NCBE reversed itself and said subscores were useful again and they would re-release them. This was a signal to me that NCBE sorted out all the Civ Pro abnormalities, so I wouldn't blame Civ Pro for F18 MBE problems.

[Nightcrawler]

Not releasing the MBE subscores is another obstacle for students in my opinion. It would be easier to focus the preparation on certain subjects compared to others. The percentile is not useful at all because the exam is not curved and if you get 1440 you pass, regardless of how many students get that score. So wait, are they going to reintroduce the subscores?

[What'sUP?]

Best of luck everyone. Just 8 days out . . . fingers crossed for some good news. Thanks to everyone for keeping this blog up. It has certainly helped! Honestly, I have actually calmed down this past week and felt much less anxious -- if not at all -- about things which is good. I have still been contemplating the February exam for sure but have tried to focus on the things I felt went well or better than the last exam. Perhaps I have reached a place of resignation -- who knows. I still wonder about the PT and question whether or not I did it right; and, I am somewhat/very concerned about the MBE's as my sentiment hasn't really changed (i.e., morning session felt like I could narrow the answer choice down to 2 and had to make the best guess while the afternoon session felt a little bit easier). So, we'll see.

I think at this point I am just trying to prepare myself mentally because I don't want to go down a rabbit hole of angst and despair and frustration if I do not pass. I try to think of what felt better about this exam but realize that there were still challenges.

[krispymenudo]

Anyone else get a Bar Survey by email?

No survey here

[krispymenudo]

Best of luck everyone. Just 8 days out . . . fingers crossed for some good news. Thanks to everyone for keeping this blog up. It has certainly helped! Honestly, I have actually calmed down this past week and felt much less anxious -- if not at all -- about things which is good. I have still been contemplating the February exam for sure but have tried to focus on the things I felt went well or better than the last exam. Perhaps I have reached a place of resignation -- who knows. I still wonder about the PT and question whether or not I did it right; and, I am somewhat/very concerned about the MBE's as my sentiment hasn't really changed (i.e., morning session felt like I could narrow the answer choice down to 2 and had to make the best guess while the afternoon session felt a little bit easier). So, we'll see.

I think at this point I am just trying to prepare myself mentally because I don't want to go down a rabbit hole of angst and despair and frustration if I do not pass. I try to think of what felt better about this exam but realize that there were still challenges.

If it helps, I felt exactly the same about the MBE. The morning felt like a bloodbath, the afternoon felt like a breeze. I got a 144 on the MBE in July '17, despite only getting about 50% on every single practice test I did last summer, so I was very surprised. My essays were absolute crap. I didn't do proper headings and IRAC (yet, I was getting 70s on my Kaplan essays). I put a really heavy focus on doing more practice MBEs than last time to go into the MBE with more confidence this time. With how badly I was doing on practice in July, I was not confident at all. I did 25-50 practice questions a day, beginning the second week of December. My total questions completed on Adaptibar was absurd. I went in this February with a lot of confidence, and left the morning feeling absolutely defeated. I don't know what more I could have done, honestly. The morning felt completely unfair.

[needbreak]

Interesting quote. I wish I'd read this last year: "I don't need more time. I need a deadline." (Duke Ellington) Maybe not checking my phone so much would have helped.

Also, I wonder how people that bill per hour deal with their smart phones. Do they spend chunks of time liking pictures at the expense of paying clients? lol. Things going through my mind now.

[What'sUP?]

Best of luck everyone. Just 8 days out . . . fingers crossed for some good news. Thanks to everyone for keeping this blog up. It has certainly helped! Honestly, I have actually calmed down this past week and felt much less anxious -- if not at all -- about things which is good. I have still been contemplating the February exam for sure but have tried to focus on the things I felt went well or better than the last exam. Perhaps I have reached a place of resignation -- who knows. I still wonder about the PT and question whether or not I did it right; and, I am somewhat/very concerned about the MBE's as my sentiment hasn't really changed (i.e., morning session felt like I could narrow the answer choice down to 2 and had to make the best guess while the afternoon session felt a little bit easier). So, we'll see.

I think at this point I am just trying to prepare myself mentally because I don't want to go down a rabbit hole of angst and despair and frustration if I do not pass. I try to think of what felt better about this exam but realize that there were still challenges.

If it helps, I felt exactly the same about the MBE. The morning felt like a bloodbath, the afternoon felt like a breeze. I got a 144 on the MBE in July '17, despite only getting about 50% on every single practice test I did last summer, so I was very surprised. My essays were absolute crap. I didn't do proper headings and IRAC (yet, I was getting 70s on my Kaplan essays). I put a really heavy focus on doing more practice MBEs than last time to go into the MBE with more confidence this time. With how badly I was doing on practice in July, I was not confident at all. I did 25-50 practice questions a day, beginning the second week of December. My total questions completed on Adaptibar was absurd. I went in this February with a lot of confidence, and left the morning feeling absolutely defeated. I don't know what more I could have done, honestly. The morning felt completely unfair.

I get it. On another note, Congrats on the 144!!!! That is amazing. I would love that score!!!

[ooda]

Finding it difficult to concentrate at work now that we are close to the results coming out. I had to calendar something the week after we get results and I couldn't even contemplate it! Especially distracted given that my continued employment is contingent upon passing. I have some backup plans in the works, but the wait has been gut-wrenching with this in mind. Solidarity with all my waiting amigos.

[Underoath]

I sat out this examination and after looking at the questions I am glad I did. Good luck to everyone, and to those who do not pass...I will be studying with you.

[BrainToast]

I’m freaking out thinking I might be studying again at this time in two weeks.

[What'sUP?]

Totally sobered by reality -- and coming to terms with it . . . slowly. Part of me is like, "Okay, I am ready to do it over . . . ." But, I know that feeling of readiness motivation is due to ignorance. It will be ANOTHER wave of thoughts and feelings to process to get a score report So, I am just trying to remain as calm and focused as possible.

[krispymenudo]

I’m freaking out thinking I might be studying again at this time in two weeks.

Same here. I feel soooooo not ready to start up again

[horriblegb]

Is it worth reading into it at all that if my c&f app has not been approved? Could that mean I did not pass the bar?

There is nothing remarkable on my C&F and I submitted at the end of November. I don't know how much cross chatter there is between departments, or if you get moved to the bottom if you fail or anything like that.

Basically last week jitters