July 2014 Bar Exam results thread Forum

[byronmullens]

I wouldn't say that the pass rates are necessarily down across the board based on the information that we have. It is worrying information, but it could be a self selecting sample. Looking over the MBE statistics from the past 12 years, they have always scaled the July MBE at median of 145 +/-3. It could be that a majority of the median has self selected the states that are not out yet. Let us hope that the non-released states went up by equal measure.

I like your optimism. But what you are describing would be statistically absurd. Passage rates are almost definitely down and it will likely continue with the remaining states.

So as of now by my count in declining order of population have reported: FL, NC, WA, IN, MO, WI, OR, OK, IA, UT, KS, NM, WV, ID, MT. So we are not even near half of test results reported yet, a shift could happen, even if it seems unlikely.

[IndianaLawyer]

Indiana Overall Bar Passage Rate dropped to 68%. Historically has hovered between 75% and 82%...

[brazleton]

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[kapital98]

Saved for when NY comes out.

[sherpaorlawschool]

You exaggerated what I said. I said this year's passage rate is likely to be between 57% and 72%. That's why I included the margin of error. I did not say the pass rate declined by 15%. Lo and behold, the pass rate rate is 71%, well within my prediction. A drop of about 8% is significant in Florida with more than 3000 test takers, with most of them first timers. In any case, bar pass rate is down across the board from the results we have gotten so far.

By using the 79% number, your comparison suggests the overall passage rate would be between 7% lower and 22% lower from July 2013. In reality, based on your prediction, the overall pass rate should fall somewhere between 1% higher (because the overall pass rate was 71% in 2013) and 14% lower. That was my point. That the first time passage rate is 6% lower does not prove your prediction is correct, though I do think the overall passage rate will fall somewhere between being 4% and 8% lower. But that's very different than a 15 or 20% decline. I just want people to be a bit more careful with the data because it can cause anxiety for those still waiting for their results. I wasn't suggesting your prediction that the overall passage rate will fall between 57% and 72% was incorrect. I was suggesting your interpretation of what it means as a matter of comparison was incorrect.

[OhScalia]

You exaggerated what I said. I said this year's passage rate is likely to be between 57% and 72%. That's why I included the margin of error. I did not say the pass rate declined by 15%. Lo and behold, the pass rate rate is 71%, well within my prediction. A drop of about 8% is significant in Florida with more than 3000 test takers, with most of them first timers. In any case, bar pass rate is down across the board from the results we have gotten so far.

If anything, by picking out the 64% number, I understated ]the difference between your comparison to the 79% number and the actual overall passage rate of 71% for July 2013. The comparison you made was a faulty one, and we still don't know if the overall pass rate was in the range of your prediction because the pass rate FL provided is the first time pass rate. Based on your prediction, you suggested the overall passage rate would be between 7% lower and 22% lower from July 2013. In reality, based on your prediction, the overall pass rate should fall somewhere between 1% higher (because the overall pass rate was 71% in 2013) and 14% lower. That does not automatically mean it is significantly lower (though I said based on my estimation is probably is), and the first time pass rate actually being lower doesn't confirm the soundness of your prediction. That was my point.

Estimating the range you gave and comparing it against 79% was not helpful because it was not an accurate comparison. The difference between the prediction you gave and the prediction you should have given has significant implications for folks still waiting on their results. To avoid confusion, you should have given the range and compared it against the 71% overall pass rate from July 2013. Now I will admit that I picked out your 64% estimate, but the way you explained the range was no more helpful. It was merely misleading.

I raised the issue not to say you would be wrong about the range you gave. In fact, I think you're right that the overall pass rate should fall somewhere between 57% and probably 68% for the really optimistic. I'm just calling for more care in the disclosure of information because posts like yours, without additional information or context, may mislead those still waiting for their results. People waiting on their results are already on edge, as evidenced by some of the postings I have seen in this thread, and I am merely asking folks to be less cavalier with the numbers because it may create unnecessary anxiety in cases where flawed information actually turns out to be off.

TL;DR, I wasn't saying you're wrong about the range you gave. I'm saying you made an incorrect comparison by suggesting there could be up to a 22% decline in FL where, at most, your prediction says there could be a 14% decline.

Your point is well taken. My conclusion, however, does not change: FL bar pass rate is down significantly. If first timers are down by 8%, I expect retakers to do even worse. I think people waiting for their results realize that they can't change anything at this point. No need to freak out. While most states so far have shown a lower pass rate, FL is probably the more pronounced one.

[hoppingabird]

The bar exam pass rates for the July 2014 exam are down. Based on the statistics available to us currently, there is no other conclusion to draw. I believe we will see that once every state has reported their exam results, the bar exam pass rates will remain lower than their averages.

Since there is NO argument that the pass rates are down, the more interesting discussion would be if anyone could point to a reason WHY the passage rates are down significantly. Can anyone do that? I'm curious to know the reason, anyone else?

[hous]

I think they are down because the MBE was harder than usual. I think Florida also had a difficult Part A so it will have a more noticeable decline in pass rates than many other states. Interestingly enough, I looked at the past 5 years of Florida July exams and noticed they were all right at 80.0% give or take a fraction of a percentage except for July 2013 (77.2%) and 2014 (72.8%). Perhaps this is a trend to make the Florida exam more difficult?

[Dafaq]

Problem is that passage rates are down from all the reporting states. Any conspiracy theorists in this group?

[jarofsoup]

Probably MBE difficulty lowering the pass rate. I cannot imagine all of the states would change their scoring.

I wonder where CA will be 40%?

[AJS30]

Probably MBE difficulty lowering the pass rate. I cannot imagine all of the states would change their scoring.

I wonder where CA will be 40%?

The only thing I still don't get is that I thought the scaling is supposed to make up for the difficulty of the MBE, so that no one MBE is harder than another?if you look at the CA MBE scale last year there was about a 20 pt curve the lower you scored. Did the NCBE just not find that this exam was difficult or are half of our essays just floating in cyberspace and were not successfully uploaded due to examsoft.

[sherpaorlawschool]

Probably MBE difficulty lowering the pass rate. I cannot imagine all of the states would change their scoring.

I wonder where CA will be 40%?

The only thing I still don't get is that I thought the scaling is supposed to make up for the difficulty of the MBE, so that no one MBE is harder than another?if you look at the CA MBE scale last year there was about a 20 pt curve the lower you scored. Did the NCBE just not find that this exam was difficult or are half of our essays just floating in cyberspace and were not successfully uploaded due to examsoft.

My best guess is that the NCBE scales the exam in advance based on some algorithm they use to project difficulty, not after all the scores have been submitted. If they waited to scale it after everyone submitted it, they could then just adjust the scale to get the same median. Instead, the NCBE says somewhere on the website that the median score has always been somewhere in the low 140s and that this means the quality of the examinee pool has been stable over time. That makes it sound like they scale the exam in advance to me.

Also, this is pure speculation, but it could be that the NCBE has changed the MBE a bit, which has dropped the median score. I took the NCBE's OPE-4, which was released in November 2013, the weekend before the exam. When I got my scaled score, it said the average score for examinees answering questions just like these came out to somewhere between a 136 and 137 scaled. I believe all the previous OPEs had an average score of somewhere in the mid-140s, though someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I wondered about the discrepancy at the time, but now it seems like it might have been an indicator of what to expect. In any case, I will report back my scaled score when I receive it to compare against my OPE-4 score in case it is helpful for those taking the exam in the future (even though Feb 2015 will involve civil procedure questions).

Finally one other thing to note is that many jurisdictions scale their essays to the median MBE score, so if a state had a lower median MBE score, the examinees will necessarily have a lower median essay score, no matter how good the essays are. Someone please correct me if I misunderstand the way the essays are scaled. Assuming I'm right, it means the NCBE can basically just decide to alter the difficulty of the MBE and also make it more difficult to make up for it with a better essay score.

[brazleton]

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[adonai]

Probably MBE difficulty lowering the pass rate. I cannot imagine all of the states would change their scoring.

I wonder where CA will be 40%?

Considering CA requires a higher MBE score to pass, I'd say that we will see a significant drop in passage rates. I'd say average between February and July exams.

I was reading through last year's July bar results thread, and people were all lamenting the same thing about the MBE and how hard it was. But their bar passage rates were largely the same. I can't help but think it just can't be solely the MBE's fault for lower pass rates. Was the MBE truly harder, or did takers just do that bad overall? Honestly, I'm scared. The MBE was my biggest weakpoint when studying.

[amk110]

I'm sure the MBE will be much more manageable with the addition of civ pro. I, for one, kept thinking during bar prep that there needed to be another MBE subject with extremely long and convoluted fact patterns to go along with contracts and property.

[arkhamhorror]

I was reading through last year's July bar results thread, and people were all lamenting the same thing about the MBE and how hard it was. But their bar passage rates were largely the same. I can't help but think it just can't be solely the MBE's fault for lower pass rates. Was the MBE truly harder, or did takers just do that bad overall? Honestly, I'm scared. The MBE was my biggest weakpoint when studying.

So, I took NJ/PA last July and passed. I took Texas this July and am waiting for the results.

I honestly felt like this year's MBE was significantly harder than last year's. However, some of that may have to do with the fact that I studied much, much less due to the fact that I'm working. I was really banking on a generous scale to get me over the hump, but now I'm not so sure.

[wa_bar_taker]

I'm reporting a bit late. I took the WA bar exam (UBE state) this July and I used Themis. If I recall correctly, I ended up doing about 90% of the course by the time the exam came around.

Day one of the exam, I felt cautiously optimistic about how it went. I was iffy on 2 of the essays, but felt pretty good about the other 4 and felt like the MPTs went well.

Day two of the exam, like everyone else, I felt that the MBE kicked my ass.

I had figured based on my practice that I would get somewhere between 68 and 85 percent right on the MBE, as that was my range on the practice. Therefore, I figured that as long as I did average on the essays, I would end up with enough MBE points to get me to a passing score (270). However, the actual MBE felt way more difficult than any practice set I did, so I felt like the low end of my scale might not accurately reflect my results.

However, I passed, and I passed by a lot.

MEE/MPT - 176
MBE - 171
Total - 347

As happy as I was to see my passing score, my celebratory mood was cut short by seeing just how many people I know from school who did not pass. I mean, I'm still happy, but I cannot stop thinking about how I would feel had I not passed. There is something cruel about publishing a list of the people who passed, since the people who failed know that the rest of us know.

But I would definitely recommend Themis to people. Way cheaper, got to avoid being around other stressed out law students, and it more than prepared me.

[Shawshank33]

Passed Florida Bar Exam! Passed section FL portion, failed MBE, passed overall. Will edit this when I recieve my packet with my scaled MBE score. Wishing you all the best of luck..I am still in shock that I passed...continue to visualize your pass!!

[lalala21]

Passed the Maine bar! As far as I know we don't get our scores or a break down, but I will post if we do when I get my letter in a few days!

Thank you to everyone here. I will be keeping my fingers crossed for everyone else over the next few months!

[OhScalia]

Repost

For background, I took Barbri. Because of moving to FL from another state and plain laziness, I had completed only 18% of the program three weeks before the Bar. Specifically, I had finished 4 MBE subjects and 2 FL subjects by then. I panicked and study 18 hours every day for the remaining 3 weeks. I was able to complete 38% of the Barbri Program.

Exam day: I thought the essays, except for the Trust and Estate one, were fairly difficult. But once I had finished them I knew I would pass because essays were my weakness. The FL afternoon session was a joke for me. I finished with 1 hour to go and there were only two questions that were extremely hard for me. For the MBE, the morning session was easy. But the afternoon session was very hard; In fact, I barely finish it.

My scores

MBE: 164
FL: 160

Good luck to folks still awaiting results.

[Seminole_305]

FL: 164
MBE: 158

I took BarBri and completed 100% of the paced program. I have always been a strong essay writer so I thought the essays were doable but I did get thrown for a loop on the second essay. I thought the FL MC were straightforward and I credit one of my professors, who taught FL Wills, and FL Corporations, for me knowing most of that stuff.

For the MBE I am shocked by the score because I have a pounding headache in the morning (the tough part for me) and I barely finished on time. By the afternoon I was feeling better and breezed through that portion.

Overall I left the convention center thinking that I did enough to pass because there wasn't anything on the exam that I didn't know.

Good luck to the others still waiting.

[MoneyMay]

I got a 174 on the MBE and my main advice is to use Adaptibar with your test prep company. Once you do 1,000 extra MBE questions, it's hard for them to find ways to trick you.

[OhScalia]

I got a 174 on the MBE and my main advice is to use Adaptibar with your test prep company. Once you do 1,000 extra MBE questions, it's hard for them to find ways to trick you.

Money-no knockout-May, great job on the MBE. It looks like an LSAT score. Did you crush FL, too?

[Hannibal]

I got a 174 on the MBE and my main advice is to use Adaptibar with your test prep company. Once you do 1,000 extra MBE questions, it's hard for them to find ways to trick you.

I got a 170 with just BARBRI without doing all their questions. I highly recommend not putting yourself through an extra 1,000.

[OhScalia]

I got a 174 on the MBE and my main advice is to use Adaptibar with your test prep company. Once you do 1,000 extra MBE questions, it's hard for them to find ways to trick you.

I got a 170 with just BARBRI without doing all their questions. I highly recommend not putting yourself through an extra 1,000.

True, Hannibal. But a lot of people failed this test, and Adaptibar might be useful to them. I don't regret completing 38% of the Barbri Program, but I won't advice anyone to do the same.