For Used-to-be-engineers Only! Forum

[guano]

Ah I see. I thought they were going after the gambler's fallacy. Thanks.

There are lots of fallacies prevalent among gamblers, but a good statistician should be able to win more often than not (although casinos make it as hard as possible)

The only table game that I know of where the odds can actually be in the player's favor is blackjack (and it requires card counting to tilt the odds back towards the player--which is hard with a 6 deck shoe, esp. when I don't think most casinos play all the way down).

I thought most casinos play with an 8 deck shoe these days (and only play about half way down)

Roulette is another one. The house takes 5.3% in American Roulette and 2.7% in French Roulette (which is one of the reasons I prefer French Roulette). While the odds per spin are always the same, it's possible to work out the odds for a series of bets and usually you'll come out ahead. The only problem is that you'd be doing strategic betting and nickle&diming your way through (think profiting $15 on a $100 bet), so it could take quite a few spins just to double your money, but if you hit a really unlucky streak, you quickly delve deeply into the hole.

A simplified explanation is that if the table hits red 10 times in a row, statistically you should be up predominantly black numbers thereafter. Of course, it's always possible to hit red 20 times in a row, so during a particularly bad spell you're fucked.

[LaBarrister]

Ah I see. I thought they were going after the gambler's fallacy. Thanks.

There are lots of fallacies prevalent among gamblers, but a good statistician should be able to win more often than not (although casinos make it as hard as possible)

The only table game that I know of where the odds can actually be in the player's favor is blackjack (and it requires card counting to tilt the odds back towards the player--which is hard with a 6 deck shoe, esp. when I don't think most casinos play all the way down).

I thought most casinos play with an 8 deck shoe these days (and only play about half way down)

Roulette is another one. The house takes 5.3% in American Roulette and 2.7% in French Roulette (which is one of the reasons I prefer French Roulette). While the odds per spin are always the same, it's possible to work out the odds for a series of bets and usually you'll come out ahead. The only problem is that you'd be doing strategic betting and nickle&diming your way through (think profiting $15 on a $100 bet), so it could take quite a few spins just to double your money, but if you hit a really unlucky streak, you quickly delve deeply into the hole.

A simplified explanation is that if the table hits red 10 times in a row, statistically you should be up predominantly black numbers thereafter. Of course, it's always possible to hit red 20 times in a row, so during a particularly bad spell you're fucked.

I've always wondered just exactly how they can accuse someone of card counting? Aside from the fact that I think it should be a legitimate strategy, how does one prove someone is counting cards, and not just getting lucky or simply THINKING, which is all card counting is.

[guano]

I've always wondered just exactly how they can accuse someone of card counting? Aside from the fact that I think it should be a legitimate strategy, how does one prove someone is counting cards, and not just getting lucky or simply THINKING, which is all card counting is.

Casinos watch anyone who is winning to see if there is something suspicious going on. This includes cheating and counting cards.

If they think a player is counting cards, they'll look at his betting patterns. He'll usually bet small at the beginning of a shoe and gradually increase their bets as the shoe progresses (if a lot of small cards have been played).

He will also play perfect basic strategy for the most part and only mix it up when there is a lot of money on the line (you can Google "illustrious 18" to see some of the exceptions).

The biggest give away is insurance. They will almost never take "even money" on blackjacks unless they have a lot of money on the table. The same is true with the non-blackjack insurance bet. They never take insurance unless they have a lot of money on the table.

Two other big plays are 16 vs 10 and 12 vs 4. When there is a lot of money on the table, they will usually stand in both cases. If they have their smallest bet out, they will usually hit.

[LaBarrister]

Thank for finding and sharing that, guano.

[haus]

OP: The only explanation is that you have Asperger's Syndrome.

If the OP did indeed have Asperger's, he is in luck, the DSM-V will be released soon, an no more Asperger's!

[haus]

Also, it should be noted that casino's strongly discourage THINKING on their premises.