Why do people say 1L performance is unpredictable? Forum

Post by **romothesavior** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:24 pm

I'll add myself to the "I got good grades (not elite, but solid) and still think law grades are about far more than intelligence and hard work" camp.

You do realize the converse of your argument is that the only people who think law school grades are about hard work and raw intelligence are assholes in the very top of the class who want to feel superior to their classmates, right?

schmelling · Post by **schmelling** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:30 pm

Post removed.

fats provolone · Post by **fats provolone** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:30 pm

yea that's pretty dumb

the correct answer is: law school grades are random and unpredictable, unless you're a once-in-a-century genius like myself who breaks the system

notgreat · Post by **notgreat** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:33 pm

Instinctive wrote:I don't think I've been through enough yet to have a well-developed opinion, but anecdotally...

The people I thought would do well seem to have done well. The people who i didn't think would do that well don't seem to have done that well.

I experimented with not really studying at all for the whole quarter (God I love quarters and the H/P system and not gunning for biglaw or clerkships), and my grades came back exactly as one would expect. I did well in the classes i liked the most and paid the most attention to inclass, and i did worse in the classes I was bored in or disliked.

#HotTake for the TLS-UberPosters who will surely flame at this...most of the people who talk about grades being "random" and "unpredictable" are the people with shitty grades. The rest of them are the people who either actually are or want to appear very humble.

ETA; "c'est la vie." Damn phone.

This is really dumb. Sure, a lot of the people that aren't talking about how well they did received poor grades. Not surprisingly they aren't eager to share their results. But some people have tact and aren't bragging about their grades because they aren't damaged gunners that have no other potential source of self-esteem. A boatload of those silent people you suspect didn't do well will be on law review and get the most coveted jobs next fall.

fats provolone · Post by **fats provolone** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:34 pm

i love the combo of bragging about grades and bragging about going to law school not to be a lawyer btw. a+

DCNTUA · Post by **DCNTUA** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:34 pm

Why is this thread still a thing?

fats provolone · Post by **fats provolone** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:35 pm

DCNTUA wrote:Why is this thread still a thing?

why do people say tls is unpredictable?

A. Nony Mouse · Post by **A. Nony Mouse** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:39 pm

schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.

goddamn I thought you were xylo and was trying to come up with a nice way to answer.

chuckbass · Post by **chuckbass** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:43 pm

A. Nony Mouse wrote:
schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.
goddamn I thought you were xylo and was trying to come up with a nice way to answer.

Yea wtf?!

jk148706 · Post by **jk148706** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:44 pm

AReasonableMan · Post by **AReasonableMan** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:48 pm

schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.

I took some comedy writing classes in college. Anecdotal but the people who were good at improv comedy writing or Family Guy wtf but quick witted comedy who took the LSAT and did LS did much better than those who were better at Friends kinda comedy writing. Could be coincidental.

schmelling · Post by **schmelling** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:50 pm

Post removed.

jk148706 · Post by **jk148706** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:51 pm

AReasonableMan · Post by **AReasonableMan** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:52 pm

schmelling wrote:
AReasonableMan wrote:
schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.
I took some comedy writing classes in college. Anecdotal but the people who were good at improv comedy writing or Family Guy wtf but quick witted comedy who took the LSAT and did LS did much better than those who were better at Friends kinda comedy writing. Could be coincidental.
Ughh I hate family guy. I'll just go into IB.

lol well my point is basically that an improv comic would prob be likelier to do well in LS than a sketch comic. The improv comic is able to quickly change his approach depending on the input coming from his target audience member. This is a person who could probably apply law to fact assuming they knew the law.

Instinctive · Post by **Instinctive** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:55 pm

notgreat wrote:
Instinctive wrote:I don't think I've been through enough yet to have a well-developed opinion, but anecdotally...

The people I thought would do well seem to have done well. The people who i didn't think would do that well don't seem to have done that well.

I experimented with not really studying at all for the whole quarter (God I love quarters and the H/P system and not gunning for biglaw or clerkships), and my grades came back exactly as one would expect. I did well in the classes i liked the most and paid the most attention to inclass, and i did worse in the classes I was bored in or disliked.

#HotTake for the TLS-UberPosters who will surely flame at this...most of the people who talk about grades being "random" and "unpredictable" are the people with shitty grades. The rest of them are the people who either actually are or want to appear very humble.

ETA; "c'est la vie." Damn phone.
This is really dumb. Sure, a lot of the people that aren't talking about how well they did received poor grades. Not surprisingly they aren't eager to share their results. But some people have tact and aren't bragging about their grades because they aren't damaged gunners that have no other potential source of self-esteem. A boatload of those silent people you suspect didn't do well will be on law review and get the most coveted jobs next fall.

That assumes that I'm assuming people did poorly if they're silent about grades. Which is a fair assumption, but incorrect here.

UnicornHunter · Post by **UnicornHunter** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:58 pm

schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.

median =/= top 50%

AReasonableMan · Post by **AReasonableMan** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:01 pm

Instinctive wrote:
notgreat wrote:
Instinctive wrote:I don't think I've been through enough yet to have a well-developed opinion, but anecdotally...

The people I thought would do well seem to have done well. The people who i didn't think would do that well don't seem to have done that well.

I experimented with not really studying at all for the whole quarter (God I love quarters and the H/P system and not gunning for biglaw or clerkships), and my grades came back exactly as one would expect. I did well in the classes i liked the most and paid the most attention to inclass, and i did worse in the classes I was bored in or disliked.

#HotTake for the TLS-UberPosters who will surely flame at this...most of the people who talk about grades being "random" and "unpredictable" are the people with shitty grades. The rest of them are the people who either actually are or want to appear very humble.

ETA; "c'est la vie." Damn phone.
This is really dumb. Sure, a lot of the people that aren't talking about how well they did received poor grades. Not surprisingly they aren't eager to share their results. But some people have tact and aren't bragging about their grades because they aren't damaged gunners that have no other potential source of self-esteem. A boatload of those silent people you suspect didn't do well will be on law review and get the most coveted jobs next fall.
That assumes that I'm assuming people did poorly if they're silent about grades. Which is a fair assumption, but incorrect here.

It could also be people don't brag about grades because they have "empathy".

schmelling · Post by **schmelling** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:01 pm

Post removed.

star fox · Post by **star fox** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:01 pm

I don't know a single persons grades. Not even a rough outline. Never ask.

fats provolone · Post by **fats provolone** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:02 pm

AReasonableMan wrote:
Instinctive wrote:That assumes that I'm assuming people did poorly if they're silent about grades. Which is a fair assumption, but incorrect here.
It could also be people don't brag about grades because they have "empathy".

ps im pretty sure AReasonableMan is an actual robot, so if he's schooling you on empathy you should probably see a therapist

Chevron Deference · Post by **Chevron Deference** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:03 pm

schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.

Read GTM, Do LEEWS.

Take practice exams. Live the dream.

star fox · Post by **star fox** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:04 pm

schmelling wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.

median =/= top 50%
I'm not great at math, I grant you, but isn't median or better top 50% by definition?

Not every school will give you a rank. Median is just the big pile of grades in the middle third or middle 50 even where there's not a huge variance in actual gpa.

AReasonableMan · Post by **AReasonableMan** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:06 pm

schmelling wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
schmelling wrote:Also a 0L. This thread is insane so maybe someone can help me out, cause I'm just very confused.

While it seems like no amount of work can lead to a high probability of being top of the class, can those who bust their butts and take as many practice exams as possible expect to hit median or better? cause as long as I am top 50% I will be on cloud 9 next year.

median =/= top 50%
I'm not great at math, I grant you, but isn't median or better top 50% by definition?

nah bec 1/2 the class gets a b+ in most classes. so really it's top 75%. for this reason, if you're able to hypothetically get an A then it will take you almost no work to get a B+. on the whole a 3.30 or whatever would be exactly the 50th percentile assuming the school always curves every class to exactly a 3.30. The reality is schools are incentivized to never have any class curved to below a 3.30, and there will be scenarios where math requires them to be curved to above a 3.30.

A. Nony Mouse · Post by **A. Nony Mouse** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:09 pm

If the median grade is B+, that means you have the same number of grades above B+ as below B+, but it doesn't say anything about how many people in the class get a B+. It could be 75%. Being in the top 50% is about class rank, not whether you have median grades.

Desert Fox · Post by **Desert Fox** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:10 pm

I think there is something wrong with people who can study more than a week for a class.