Odds after interview?

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Odds after interview?

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:00 pm

With the obvious caveat that it always depends, no guarantees, etc...

What would you say the odds are that an offer will materialize if you receive an interview? In other words, how many candidates do judges typically interview for a clerkship position?

Note this is a D. Ct. clerkship in a not-as-competitive district (i.e., not CA, NY, etc.)

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:10 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:00 pm
With the obvious caveat that it always depends, no guarantees, etc...

What would you say the odds are that an offer will materialize if you receive an interview? In other words, how many candidates do judges typically interview for a clerkship position?

Note this is a D. Ct. clerkship in a not-as-competitive district (i.e., not CA, NY, etc.)
Totally impossible to tell, though my rule of thumb is the longer the interview, the less people they are interviewing in total. Also the most competitive judges I have found generally don’t interview that many people either.

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:40 pm

Low.

Some judges might interview only three or so candidates for each position, others might call up a dozen and interview until they find someone they really like.

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:11 am

Tough to tell, I had hour-long interviews with judges on two occasions that I thought went pretty well (one was 1.5 hours just chatting). I'm a good interviewer and have been on both sides of an interview table from my past life. Silence from both for long afterward ultimately followed by rejections. I was kind of surprised because they gave so much of their time, but so it goes. Everything in this game is totally judge dependent. Ended up getting offers elsewhere, so it all worked out. Just keep applying.

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:19 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:40 pm
Low.

Some judges might interview only three or so candidates for each position, others might call up a dozen and interview until they find someone they really like.
...pretty sure my SDNY judge interviewed three people for the three positions my co-clerks and I got. And I really doubt anyone interviews twelve people for one job, especially on the Plan, when there isn’t time for such shenanigans.

I did a whole bunch of interviews, like 8 or something, and went 50-50 on offers fwiw. My school keeps stats on interviews and offers and IIRC 50-50 is about normal.

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nixy

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by nixy » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:50 am

I am certain there are judges out there who interview 12 people for one job. There is a huge range of practices out there. And lots of judges even now don’t follow the plan (especially if they want to hire experienced people who aren’t bound by the plan). In fact, if OP is talking about an interview now it’s probably not on the plan.

I’ll agree interviewing a dozen is less likely, but there is no way to know the OP’s odds. Plus, knowing the odds doesn’t really tell you much in this context. Sure, your odds are better if you’re one of 2 compared to 1 of 7, but you could go on 6 interviews where you’re one of 2 and still not get any of those jobs.

lawschoolkid0122

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by lawschoolkid0122 » Sat May 01, 2021 12:03 am

nixy wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:50 am
I am certain there are judges out there who interview 12 people for one job. There is a huge range of practices out there. And lots of judges even now don’t follow the plan (especially if they want to hire experienced people who aren’t bound by the plan). In fact, if OP is talking about an interview now it’s probably not on the plan.

I’ll agree interviewing a dozen is less likely, but there is no way to know the OP’s odds. Plus, knowing the odds doesn’t really tell you much in this context. Sure, your odds are better if you’re one of 2 compared to 1 of 7, but you could go on 6 interviews where you’re one of 2 and still not get any of those jobs.
OP here. Was never looking for certainty, hence the opening line of my question. Just looking for a sense of the odds and how judges approach it.

Regarding your comment that “knowing the odds doesn’t really tell you much in this context,” I guess I’d have to disagree with you, as knowing the odds would...tell me my odds? I’d feel pretty damn good if I had 6 interviews and 50% chance in each...the odds I don’t get ANY offers in that situation is a bit less than 2%, so I would feel pretty comfortable. I guess I don’t really understand the point of your comment...sure, shit happens and I could end up with no offers based on your hypo, but that’s statistically unlikely. Regardless, getting a sense of odds in general gives me a sense of my odds, period.

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by Anonymous User » Sat May 01, 2021 12:10 am

lawschoolkid0122 wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 12:03 am
nixy wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:50 am
I am certain there are judges out there who interview 12 people for one job. There is a huge range of practices out there. And lots of judges even now don’t follow the plan (especially if they want to hire experienced people who aren’t bound by the plan). In fact, if OP is talking about an interview now it’s probably not on the plan.

I’ll agree interviewing a dozen is less likely, but there is no way to know the OP’s odds. Plus, knowing the odds doesn’t really tell you much in this context. Sure, your odds are better if you’re one of 2 compared to 1 of 7, but you could go on 6 interviews where you’re one of 2 and still not get any of those jobs.
OP here. Was never looking for certainty, hence the opening line of my question. Just looking for a sense of the odds and how judges approach it.

Regarding your comment that “knowing the odds doesn’t really tell you much in this context,” I guess I’d have to disagree with you, as knowing the odds would...tell me my odds? I’d feel pretty damn good if I had 6 interviews and 50% chance in each...the odds I don’t get ANY offers in that situation is a bit less than 2%, so I would feel pretty comfortable. I guess I don’t really understand the point of your comment...sure, shit happens and I could end up with no offers based on your hypo, but that’s statistically unlikely. Regardless, getting a sense of odds in general gives me a sense of my odds, period.
I have had two interviews. One of the judges was interviewing 12 people, and the other was interviewing 2. So, nixy is right.

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by nixy » Sat May 01, 2021 7:55 am

My point was just that something being statistically likely/unlikely only gets you so far. People absolutely can go 0 for 6 on interviews, in part because even if you’re one of two candidates, it’s not really a coin toss because your performance matters. Pondering about odds is kind of pointless - do the interview and assume you don’t have the job until the glorious day when you get an offer. What value is there in knowing your odds were 50-50 if you end up not getting the gig? That happens to 50% of the people who had a 50% chance of getting the job.

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lawschoolkid0122

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by lawschoolkid0122 » Sat May 01, 2021 8:19 am

nixy wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:55 am
My point was just that something being statistically likely/unlikely only gets you so far. People absolutely can go 0 for 6 on interviews, in part because even if you’re one of two candidates, it’s not really a coin toss because your performance matters. Pondering about odds is kind of pointless - do the interview and assume you don’t have the job until the glorious day when you get an offer. What value is there in knowing your odds were 50-50 if you end up not getting the gig? That happens to 50% of the people who had a 50% chance of getting the job.
Fair point. I think you’re right, that’s the proper mindset. To me, there is value in terms of confidence, knowing it’s actually attainable. But, it’s impossible to know your precise odds, so it’s all fugazi. Just do the damn interview and see where the chips falls.

Appreciate the input!

nixy

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by nixy » Sat May 01, 2021 8:27 am

Yeah, that makes sense. But look at this way: if you get an interview, it's absolutely actually attainable - judges don't bother interviewing people they have no intention of hiring. Use that for your confidence. Good luck!

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Re: Odds after interview?

Post by FND » Sat May 01, 2021 9:28 am

your resume gets you the interview
your personality gets you the job.

You could have a stellar resume, such that anyone who looks at it will give you an interview, but be so socially awkward that no one who interviews you would ever give you a job. If you're such a person that you have 0% chance of getting a job, it doesn't matter if you're one of only 2 candidates at a hundred different judges, your odds of landing a job are still zero.

I'm not saying that's the case, but, just knowing how many other candidates there are doesn't help you.
I had a friend in law school who was all straight As, top 10% of the class. She landed plenty of interviews during EIC/OCI, but her personality screamed 'white trash' no matter how much she tried to hide it, and she didn't get a single call-back. Someone else in the class has barely acceptable grades, and only snagged one interview, but was so polished and personable that he got an offer out of it.

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