Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

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Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:47 pm

I thought this would be fun and interesting for us followers of the federal bench! Who do you expect to go senior, who do you expect to elevated from district court to COA? What star attorneys/profs do you think will be appointed to COA?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:50 pm

(OP here) Wanted to also ask of any opinions/knowledge on Ketanji Brown Jackson, Candace Jackson-Akiwumi, and Tiffany Cunningham?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:14 pm

I wonder if Liu will be given a spot, but I’m not sure about anyone else. It’s been interesting to see the districts throughout the country really start to open up with vacancies. I do wonder if it’ll be impactful at all considering there aren’t a lot of circuit vacancies and I doubt the much-needed vacancy acts are passed anytime soon.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:16 pm

Judge Nathan (SDNY) seems like a front runner and obvious choice for one of the CA2 vacancies.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:39 pm

@fedjudges and @vettingroom on Twitter follow this kind of thing. The shortlist for NY CA2 seems to be Nathan, Furman, Oetken, Dale Ho, and Melissa Murray, but nominees can always come out of left field. For the upcoming VA vacancy on CA4, I imagine Toby Heytens is the front-runner and I've heard he's really wonderful from people who know him well. For the CA9 CA seats that will eventually open there will be a million candidates--Liu, Kruger, Koh, Chhabria, Gilliam, Birotte just from elevations, plus Michael Mongan the CA SG will be leading candidates. For WA CA9 it'll probably be Noah Purcell.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:26 am

On CA4, Judges Xinis and Chuang on DMD will all be in the mix if/when Motz or Niemeyer go senior. Though given its proximity to DC, there's also a chance that the seat goes to one of the many DC appellate lawyers.

Judge Childs on DSC seems like a sure bet for when Floyd takes senior.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:28 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:39 pm
For WA CA9 it'll probably be Noah Purcell.
IDK about this - Purcell wants to be governor (hence running for AG). Wouldn't be surprised though, especially to clear the way for the slapfight for WA AG that will emerge once Jay Inslee finally decides to stop being Governor.

I did hear some time ago that Justice Montoya-Lewis on the SSC is a strong possibility, and that she has support from many of the minority bar associations. But who knows!

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:00 pm

Any predictions on who will fill the N.D. Cal. DJ openings?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:27 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:00 pm
Any predictions on who will fill the N.D. Cal. DJ openings?
I've seen Christine van Aken, a former Souter clerk who's a state trial court judge, floated. But major-city district courts are probably super hard to predict because there are so many plausible candidates, it could easily be someone no elite lawyer's ever heard of in the PD's office.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:48 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:26 am
On CA4, Judges Xinis and Chuang on DMD will all be in the mix if/when Motz or Niemeyer go senior. Though given its proximity to DC, there's also a chance that the seat goes to one of the many DC appellate lawyers.

Judge Childs on DSC seems like a sure bet for when Floyd takes senior.
I wouldn't be surprised if NC Solicitor General Ryan Park is in the running for a NC CA4 seat. But Rushing took what would have likely been his spot; the other two NC judges don't go senior for a while.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:29 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:48 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:26 am
On CA4, Judges Xinis and Chuang on DMD will all be in the mix if/when Motz or Niemeyer go senior. Though given its proximity to DC, there's also a chance that the seat goes to one of the many DC appellate lawyers.

Judge Childs on DSC seems like a sure bet for when Floyd takes senior.
I wouldn't be surprised if NC Solicitor General Ryan Park is in the running for a NC CA4 seat. But Rushing took what would have likely been his spot; the other two NC judges don't go senior for a while.
That seems right. At least according to this, Wynn is eligible to go senior next summer, but he'll still be in his 60s so I wouldn't be surprised if he stays active for a few years after that.

As for the rest of CA4, I suspect Gregory will stay active until at least 2023 when his term as chief judge ends, and that Agee and Wilkinson will wait for a Republican president. That leaves King's seat as the other most likely near-term vacancy, but my knowledge of the WV bar is basically zero.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:41 pm

Re: Biden's newly announced nominees, my school advises that we can email them (at their current job email address) a clerkship app with a very very carefully phrased cover letter ("I know you may not be considering hiring yet," etc. etc.).

This seems pretty aggressive/risky to me, but I wanted to get a sense if this is commonplace and/or opinions on this. Thoughts?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:59 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:39 pm
@fedjudges and @vettingroom on Twitter follow this kind of thing. The shortlist for NY CA2 seems to be Nathan, Furman, Oetken, Dale Ho, and Melissa Murray, but nominees can always come out of left field. For the upcoming VA vacancy on CA4, I imagine Toby Heytens is the front-runner and I've heard he's really wonderful from people who know him well. For the CA9 CA seats that will eventually open there will be a million candidates--Liu, Kruger, Koh, Chhabria, Gilliam, Birotte just from elevations, plus Michael Mongan the CA SG will be leading candidates. For WA CA9 it'll probably be Noah Purcell.
Mongan has Biden ties, and I'm predicting he will be a CA9 nominee as soon as it is politically palatable for Biden to nominate a white guy. I've thought Kruger would be going to SCOTUS, but if Breyer isn't retiring imminently, I'm sure she'd be a leading candidate. (Not everyone feels going to CA9 from the Cal. Supreme Court is a promotion, though.)

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:49 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:59 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:39 pm
@fedjudges and @vettingroom on Twitter follow this kind of thing. The shortlist for NY CA2 seems to be Nathan, Furman, Oetken, Dale Ho, and Melissa Murray, but nominees can always come out of left field. For the upcoming VA vacancy on CA4, I imagine Toby Heytens is the front-runner and I've heard he's really wonderful from people who know him well. For the CA9 CA seats that will eventually open there will be a million candidates--Liu, Kruger, Koh, Chhabria, Gilliam, Birotte just from elevations, plus Michael Mongan the CA SG will be leading candidates. For WA CA9 it'll probably be Noah Purcell.
Mongan has Biden ties, and I'm predicting he will be a CA9 nominee as soon as it is politically palatable for Biden to nominate a white guy. I've thought Kruger would be going to SCOTUS, but if Breyer isn't retiring imminently, I'm sure she'd be a leading candidate. (Not everyone feels going to CA9 from the Cal. Supreme Court is a promotion, though.)
For CA maybe also Cuellar (though I believe there's a weird statutory hitch bc he's married to Koh) or Groban from the California Supreme Court.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:36 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:49 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:59 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:39 pm
@fedjudges and @vettingroom on Twitter follow this kind of thing. The shortlist for NY CA2 seems to be Nathan, Furman, Oetken, Dale Ho, and Melissa Murray, but nominees can always come out of left field. For the upcoming VA vacancy on CA4, I imagine Toby Heytens is the front-runner and I've heard he's really wonderful from people who know him well. For the CA9 CA seats that will eventually open there will be a million candidates--Liu, Kruger, Koh, Chhabria, Gilliam, Birotte just from elevations, plus Michael Mongan the CA SG will be leading candidates. For WA CA9 it'll probably be Noah Purcell.
Mongan has Biden ties, and I'm predicting he will be a CA9 nominee as soon as it is politically palatable for Biden to nominate a white guy. I've thought Kruger would be going to SCOTUS, but if Breyer isn't retiring imminently, I'm sure she'd be a leading candidate. (Not everyone feels going to CA9 from the Cal. Supreme Court is a promotion, though.)
For CA maybe also Cuellar (though I believe there's a weird statutory hitch bc he's married to Koh) or Groban from the California Supreme Court.
Motz on CA4 is married to a district judge in Maryland (now Senior) and they served at the same time so I don’t think that would be a problem.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:42 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:36 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:49 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:59 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:39 pm
@fedjudges and @vettingroom on Twitter follow this kind of thing. The shortlist for NY CA2 seems to be Nathan, Furman, Oetken, Dale Ho, and Melissa Murray, but nominees can always come out of left field. For the upcoming VA vacancy on CA4, I imagine Toby Heytens is the front-runner and I've heard he's really wonderful from people who know him well. For the CA9 CA seats that will eventually open there will be a million candidates--Liu, Kruger, Koh, Chhabria, Gilliam, Birotte just from elevations, plus Michael Mongan the CA SG will be leading candidates. For WA CA9 it'll probably be Noah Purcell.
Mongan has Biden ties, and I'm predicting he will be a CA9 nominee as soon as it is politically palatable for Biden to nominate a white guy. I've thought Kruger would be going to SCOTUS, but if Breyer isn't retiring imminently, I'm sure she'd be a leading candidate. (Not everyone feels going to CA9 from the Cal. Supreme Court is a promotion, though.)
For CA maybe also Cuellar (though I believe there's a weird statutory hitch bc he's married to Koh) or Groban from the California Supreme Court.
Motz on CA4 is married to a district judge in Maryland (now Senior) and they served at the same time so I don’t think that would be a problem.
It's never been litigated as far as I know, and there have been at least two appointments that violate it (D. and F. Motz, W. and B. Fletcher), but 28 USC 458 may make it illegal. Federal job announcements for bankruptcy judges seem to cite the statute and bar relatives of circuit court judges for example.

https://www.usajobs.gov/GetJob/PrintPreview/593900600

On the other hand, an OLC opinion from the Fletcher appointment says the statute does not apply to presidential appointments on constitutional avoidance grounds.

https://www.justice.gov/file/20126/download

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