Feeder Judge Ratings OT 2016 - 2020 (and a bit beyond) Forum

[Anonymous User]

These cover OT 2016-2020, a.k.a. the Trump/Gorsuch era, which is basically the start of the current iteration of the Court, plus David Lat's newest Substack post on OT 2021 and 2022.

First, circuit judges including retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/1wTFLZe

And non-circuit judges including retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/Pt5L0ba

Second, circuit judges minus retired justices, which looks quite different, to say the least: https://imgur.com/a/R5r29qt

And finally non-circuit judges minus retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/UZw3JaR

These circuit judges had one feed in the period, which I couldn't fit in the charts: A. Duncan*, Berzon, Cabranes, Carney, Clifton, Colloton, Edwards, Elrod, Flaum, G. Lynch, Gruender, Hamilton, Hardiman, Higginbotham, Higginson, Holmes, Ikuta, J.R. Brown, K.N. Moore, McKeague, N.R. Smith, Oldham, Owen, Owens, P. Kelly, Rao, S. Lynch, S. Williams, Sack, Sentelle, Silberman, Stras, Tymkovich, Wilkins, and Willett.

[Sorry for the shoddy image hosting, I don't know if there's a better way!]

[Anonymous User]

The big change here is that it looks like Fletcher, Tatel, and Katzmann, who were all mega-feeders, will likely be much diminished going forwards, and Garland is obviously off the bench. Srinivasan, though, is much better-positioned than other liberals, and Pillard, Friedland, and Lohier also have pretty good records and look likely to become more prominent.

Of the Trump appointees, Katsas, Thapar, and Barrett are significantly ahead of the others, as you'd expect, but also Friedrich, who has outfed the vast majority of circuit judges, let alone district judges, largely off the back of her relationship with Kavanaugh.

[Anonymous User]

These cover OT 2016-2020, a.k.a. the Trump/Gorsuch era, which is basically the start of the current iteration of the Court, plus David Lat's newest Substack post on OT 2021 and 2022.

First, circuit judges including retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/1wTFLZe

And non-circuit judges including retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/Pt5L0ba

Second, circuit judges minus retired justices, which looks quite different, to say the least: https://imgur.com/a/R5r29qt

And finally non-circuit judges minus retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/UZw3JaR

These circuit judges had one feed in the period, which I couldn't fit in the charts: A. Duncan*, Berzon, Cabranes, Carney, Clifton, Colloton, Edwards, Elrod, Flaum, G. Lynch, Gruender, Hamilton, Hardiman, Higginbotham, Higginson, Holmes, Ikuta, J.R. Brown, K.N. Moore, McKeague, N.R. Smith, Oldham, Owen, Owens, P. Kelly, Rao, S. Lynch, S. Williams, Sack, Sentelle, Silberman, Stras, Tymkovich, Wilkins, and Willett.

[Sorry for the shoddy image hosting, I don't know if there's a better way!]

Thanks for doing this. These charts will be invaluable for all the future SCOTUS hopefuls out there. I would, however, note an issue in your double counting the retired Justices' clerks. For instance, you count Judge Katzmann's 2 feeds to Justice Stevens under the "Stevens" column and under the active Justice columns (1 for Ginsburg, 1 for Kennedy). I bet the same issue repeats for the other judges - too lazy to check.

[Anonymous User]

These cover OT 2016-2020, a.k.a. the Trump/Gorsuch era, which is basically the start of the current iteration of the Court, plus David Lat's newest Substack post on OT 2021 and 2022.

First, circuit judges including retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/1wTFLZe

And non-circuit judges including retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/Pt5L0ba

Second, circuit judges minus retired justices, which looks quite different, to say the least: https://imgur.com/a/R5r29qt

And finally non-circuit judges minus retired justices: https://imgur.com/a/UZw3JaR

These circuit judges had one feed in the period, which I couldn't fit in the charts: A. Duncan*, Berzon, Cabranes, Carney, Clifton, Colloton, Edwards, Elrod, Flaum, G. Lynch, Gruender, Hamilton, Hardiman, Higginbotham, Higginson, Holmes, Ikuta, J.R. Brown, K.N. Moore, McKeague, N.R. Smith, Oldham, Owen, Owens, P. Kelly, Rao, S. Lynch, S. Williams, Sack, Sentelle, Silberman, Stras, Tymkovich, Wilkins, and Willett.

[Sorry for the shoddy image hosting, I don't know if there's a better way!]

Thanks for doing this. These charts will be invaluable for all the future SCOTUS hopefuls out there. I would, however, note an issue in your double counting the retired Justices' clerks. For instance, you count Judge Katzmann's 2 feeds to Justice Stevens under the "Stevens" column and under the active Justice columns (1 for Ginsburg, 1 for Kennedy). I bet the same issue repeats for the other judges - too lazy to check.

Half-right, Katzmann's feed to Kennedy was not a Stevens clerk (OT 2016), but the one in OT 2020 to RBG did slip through the cracks. He was a unique case--he wasn't just an RBG clerk clerking for Sotomayor, which I originally thought, but a Stevens, then RBG, then Sotomayor clerk. He's bad luck, Sotomayor should watch out. There are almost certainly some other errors around the edges, and post if you see any because I may update this again with the full OT 2021, but I did not double-count retired justices' clerks in general.

[Anonymous User]

The big change here is that it looks like Fletcher, Tatel, and Katzmann, who were all mega-feeders, will likely be much diminished going forwards, and Garland is obviously off the bench. Srinivasan, though, is much better-positioned than other liberals, and Pillard, Friedland, and Lohier also have pretty good records and look likely to become more prominent.

Of the Trump appointees, Katsas, Thapar, and Barrett are significantly ahead of the others, as you'd expect, but also Friedrich, who has outfed the vast majority of circuit judges, let alone district judges, largely off the back of her relationship with Kavanaugh.

Once Fletcher retires, Watford and Friedland will be duking it out to be the Ninth's liberal feeder. It should be interesting to see whether, with RBG's passing, Friedland overtakes Watford, since so many of his feeds were to RBG, and whether either of them feed to Breyer's replacement since neither Watford nor Friedland appear to be connected to Kruger/Brown Jackson.

[Anonymous User]

UChicago just announced its second straight year of landing 7 SCOTUS clerks, some of which (the asterisked ones) aren't on this sheet. From a school perspective it's notable that they managed to feed seven different justices (including two liberals), they're on a roll. The solo feed of a '20 grad from Grant to Roberts is the one that sticks out to me as notable, most of the rest are usual suspects.

Grant --> Roberts*
Jones/Larsen --> Thomas
C. Breyer/McKeown --> Breyer
Feinerman/Tatel --> Kagan*
Sykes/Griffith --> Gorsuch*
Pryor/Sutton --> Kavanaugh
Marcus/Barrett --> Barrett*

Also a new feed from UMich, Kethledge/Abrams --> Kagan. And one from UVA, Newsom/McFadden --> Barrett. That's the first feed for both Newsom and McFadden.

Also the new Bristow Fellows are out.

Lohier/Moss
Hayes/Willett
Stras/Thapar
Srinivasan/Oetken
Bibas/Feinerman

[Anonymous User]

Another Breyer clerk--Sidney Thomas/Chhabria. David Lat thinks that Breyer won't retire in June, he's been hiring more clerks for 2021 over the last month and might want Jackson to have a year on the D.C. Circuit before being elevated to replace him.

[Anonymous User]

A bunch more just came out from David Lat.

HLS --> Srinivasan/Boasberg --> Roberts
HLS --> Livingston/Friederich --> Roberts
YLS --> D. Motz --> Sotomayor (first recent feed?)
YLS --> Fletcher/K. Ellison --> Sotomayor (probably the first recent feed for Ellison)
SLS --> Sutton --> Gorsuch
HLS --> Collins/Millett --> Kavanaugh (first feed for Collins)
SLS --> Boasberg/Srinivasan --> Kavanaugh
GULC -->McFadden/Grant/Ambro --> Kavanaugh (another feed for McFadden and Grant, probably the first in a while for Ambro)
YLS --> Katsas/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
UVA --> Wilkinson/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
Chi --> T. Lee/Sutton --> Kennedy (I'm pretty sure this is Judge Nielson's kid, and they graduated without honors, so Kennedy getting clerkships for his buddies continues... Also a SSC feed.)

Other notes: Kavanaugh is hiring ridiculously far out, old habits die hard. Tons of feeds for DDC judges (Boasberg, Friederich, McFadden) and none from SDNY in this batch.

[Anonymous User]

A bunch more just came out from David Lat.

HLS --> Srinivasan/Boasberg --> Roberts
HLS --> Livingston/Friederich --> Roberts
YLS --> D. Motz --> Sotomayor (first recent feed?)
YLS --> Fletcher/K. Ellison --> Sotomayor (probably the first recent feed for Ellison)
SLS --> Sutton --> Gorsuch
HLS --> Collins/Millett --> Kavanaugh (first feed for Collins)
SLS --> Boasberg/Srinivasan --> Kavanaugh
GULC -->McFadden/Grant/Ambro --> Kavanaugh (another feed for McFadden and Grant, probably the first in a while for Ambro)
YLS --> Katsas/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
UVA --> Wilkinson/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
Chi --> T. Lee/Sutton --> Kennedy (I'm pretty sure this is Judge Nielson's kid, and they graduated without honors, so Kennedy getting clerkships for his buddies continues... Also a SSC feed.)

Other notes: Kavanaugh is hiring ridiculously far out, old habits die hard. Tons of feeds for DDC judges (Boasberg, Friederich, McFadden) and none from SDNY in this batch.

You also missed HLS --> Sutton --> Thomas

[Anonymous User]

Friedrich...as the kids on TikTok say, sheeeesh. Seems cabined to CJR and Kav though.

As someone mentioned in another thread, the Circuit feeder distrib is looking very diffuse. Cons and libs have lost Griffith / Garland obviously, and then Katzmann / Tatel have gone senior. On the con side, it looks like Pryor has the originalist banner, Sutton remaining solid, and obviously there's Katsas, but on the libs there hasn't been consolidation when one might have expected some. Watford / Friedland seem to have feeder-level reps and hiring practices, but neither has really "rivaled" Fletcher (who himself seems to be off the peak) in the 9th.

A bit surprised no Thapar or Lohier in the latest update, though obviously the full '21 list isn't out. Also good on Kav for getting what looks to be a counter in there for '22, haven't seen much of that outside of CJR. Kethledge / Abrams hire for Kagan is interesting.

[Anonymous User]

As someone mentioned in another thread, the Circuit feeder distrib is looking very diffuse.

I've got to wonder if part of this is the total plan breakdown around 2015-17 coming home to roost. Between lots of hiring with very few grades, 2/9/DC Cir. backlogs, and (at least at my HYS) lots of opacity even for profs and clerkship offices about who was hiring when, it seems plausible that it became harder to match the strongest candidates on graduation with the biggest feeders. It felt from both the school and chambers perspective like matching became way easier with on-plan hiring.

[Anonymous User]

As someone mentioned in another thread, the Circuit feeder distrib is looking very diffuse.

I've got to wonder if part of this is the total plan breakdown around 2015-17 coming home to roost. Between lots of hiring with very few grades, 2/9/DC Cir. backlogs, and (at least at my HYS) lots of opacity even for profs and clerkship offices about who was hiring when, it seems plausible that it became harder to match the strongest candidates on graduation with the biggest feeders. It felt from both the school and chambers perspective like matching became way easier with on-plan hiring.

Are the circuit feeds actually more diffuse than normal? Just this new list has 3 Sutton, 2 Srinivasan, and 1 each from the usual feeders (Wilkinson, Katsas, Livingston, Fletcher....) The only first-timer is Collins (who co-fed with Millett). Lat posted this list for OT2020, and it looks just as clustered a past terms:

Katzmann (4)
W. Pryor (4)
Srinivasan (4)
Sutton (3)
Wilkinson (3)
Boasberg (D.D.C.) (3)
Rakoff (S.D.N.Y.) (3)
Furman (S.D.N.Y.) (3)
Calabresi (2)
E. Carnes (2)
Garland (2)
Katsas (2)
Kethledge (2)
Watford (2)
Oetken (S.D.N.Y.) (2)

[Anonymous User]

Friedrich...as the kids on TikTok say, sheeeesh. Seems cabined to CJR and Kav though.

As someone mentioned in another thread, the Circuit feeder distrib is looking very diffuse. Cons and libs have lost Griffith / Garland obviously, and then Katzmann / Tatel have gone senior. On the con side, it looks like Pryor has the originalist banner, Sutton remaining solid, and obviously there's Katsas, but on the libs there hasn't been consolidation when one might have expected some. Watford / Friedland seem to have feeder-level reps and hiring practices, but neither has really "rivaled" Fletcher (who himself seems to be off the peak) in the 9th.

A bit surprised no Thapar or Lohier in the latest update, though obviously the full '21 list isn't out. Also good on Kav for getting what looks to be a counter in there for '22, haven't seen much of that outside of CJR. Kethledge / Abrams hire for Kagan is interesting.

My hunch is that Kethledge/Abrams was probably counter-clerking for Kethledge, as he's probably the feeder who most regularly hires for UMich, though it is interesting that Kagan would go for it (both on law school and judge). Maybe she's getting a tad less elitist in her hiring.

[Anonymous User]

As someone mentioned in another thread, the Circuit feeder distrib is looking very diffuse.

I've got to wonder if part of this is the total plan breakdown around 2015-17 coming home to roost. Between lots of hiring with very few grades, 2/9/DC Cir. backlogs, and (at least at my HYS) lots of opacity even for profs and clerkship offices about who was hiring when, it seems plausible that it became harder to match the strongest candidates on graduation with the biggest feeders. It felt from both the school and chambers perspective like matching became way easier with on-plan hiring.

Are the circuit feeds actually more diffuse than normal? Just this new list has 3 Sutton, 2 Srinivasan, and 1 each from the usual feeders (Wilkinson, Katsas, Livingston, Fletcher....) The only first-timer is Collins (who co-fed with Millett). Lat posted this list for OT2020, and it looks just as clustered a past terms:

Katzmann (4)
W. Pryor (4)
Srinivasan (4)
Sutton (3)
Wilkinson (3)
Boasberg (D.D.C.) (3)
Rakoff (S.D.N.Y.) (3)
Furman (S.D.N.Y.) (3)
Calabresi (2)
E. Carnes (2)
Garland (2)
Katsas (2)
Kethledge (2)
Watford (2)
Oetken (S.D.N.Y.) (2)

Motz, Thomas, McKeown, Marcus, Ambro, Jones, Gruender, Newsom, McFadden, Ellison, Abrams were first or irregular feeders as well when you consider all of c/o 2021, though some were in combination and I'm sure there are individual quirks there (e.g. the McKeown one was #1 at Chi, and definitely would get a true feeder at most schools, but Chi rarely sends clerks to liberal feeders beyond Tatel, Fletcher, and Watford)

[Anonymous User]

What do we think about Katzmann's chances of staying a feeder now that RBG is off of the Court? Will we see him diminish significantly?

[Anonymous User]

What do we think about Katzmann's chances of staying a feeder now that RBG is off of the Court? Will we see him diminish significantly?

Doubt there is a huge change. He feeds to a bunch of other judges.

[Anonymous User]

What do we think about Katzmann's chances of staying a feeder now that RBG is off of the Court? Will we see him diminish significantly?

Doubt there is a huge change. He feeds to a bunch of other judges.

He's recently taken senior status. How many clerks is he hiring for future terms? He will likely feed fewer overall but a higher percentage.

[Anonymous User]

What do we think about Katzmann's chances of staying a feeder now that RBG is off of the Court? Will we see him diminish significantly?

Doubt there is a huge change. He feeds to a bunch of other judges.

He's recently taken senior status. How many clerks is he hiring for future terms? He will likely feed fewer overall but a higher percentage.

He's probably hiring for 2025-2026 at this point (Rakoff is hiring 3 for 2024-2025), so even if he stopped hiring entirely today, he could still feed a good number.

[Anonymous User]

What do we think about Katzmann's chances of staying a feeder now that RBG is off of the Court? Will we see him diminish significantly?

Doubt there is a huge change. He feeds to a bunch of other judges.

If you look in the comparison in the OP he drops from the #1 feeder to a fairly average (if there is such a thing) feeder when you exclude RBG and AMK though. I think there have been (shockingly) no reported Katzmann or Rakoff clerks hired for any term after OT 2020, including OT 2021 for which almost all hires have been announced, so far.

[Anonymous User]

What do we think about Katzmann's chances of staying a feeder now that RBG is off of the Court? Will we see him diminish significantly?

Doubt there is a huge change. He feeds to a bunch of other judges.

If you look in the comparison in the OP he drops from the #1 feeder to a fairly average (if there is such a thing) feeder when you exclude RBG and AMK though. I think there have been (shockingly) no reported Katzmann or Rakoff clerks hired for any term after OT 2020, including OT 2021 for which almost all hires have been announced, so far.

Who are the liberal feeders nowadays then? He still seems to be the pick after Srinivasan. Is Pillard above him?

[Anonymous User]

A bunch more just came out from David Lat.

HLS --> Srinivasan/Boasberg --> Roberts
HLS --> Livingston/Friederich --> Roberts
YLS --> D. Motz --> Sotomayor (first recent feed?)
YLS --> Fletcher/K. Ellison --> Sotomayor (probably the first recent feed for Ellison)
SLS --> Sutton --> Gorsuch
HLS --> Collins/Millett --> Kavanaugh (first feed for Collins)
SLS --> Boasberg/Srinivasan --> Kavanaugh
GULC -->McFadden/Grant/Ambro --> Kavanaugh (another feed for McFadden and Grant, probably the first in a while for Ambro)
YLS --> Katsas/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
UVA --> Wilkinson/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
Chi --> T. Lee/Sutton --> Kennedy (I'm pretty sure this is Judge Nielson's kid, and they graduated without honors, so Kennedy getting clerkships for his buddies continues... Also a SSC feed.)

Other notes: Kavanaugh is hiring ridiculously far out, old habits die hard. Tons of feeds for DDC judges (Boasberg, Friederich, McFadden) and none from SDNY in this batch.

You also missed HLS --> Sutton --> Thomas

Add another UChicago —> E. Jones/Rao —> Alito too

[Anonymous User]

A bunch more just came out from David Lat.

HLS --> Srinivasan/Boasberg --> Roberts
HLS --> Livingston/Friederich --> Roberts
YLS --> D. Motz --> Sotomayor (first recent feed?)
YLS --> Fletcher/K. Ellison --> Sotomayor (probably the first recent feed for Ellison)
SLS --> Sutton --> Gorsuch
HLS --> Collins/Millett --> Kavanaugh (first feed for Collins)
SLS --> Boasberg/Srinivasan --> Kavanaugh
GULC -->McFadden/Grant/Ambro --> Kavanaugh (another feed for McFadden and Grant, probably the first in a while for Ambro)
YLS --> Katsas/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
UVA --> Wilkinson/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
Chi --> T. Lee/Sutton --> Kennedy (I'm pretty sure this is Judge Nielson's kid, and they graduated without honors, so Kennedy getting clerkships for his buddies continues... Also a SSC feed.)

Other notes: Kavanaugh is hiring ridiculously far out, old habits die hard. Tons of feeds for DDC judges (Boasberg, Friederich, McFadden) and none from SDNY in this batch.

You also missed HLS --> Sutton --> Thomas

Add another UChicago —> E. Jones/Rao —> Alito too

And that's a second one this term who graduated from UChicago without honors--outside of the top ~30% of the class--to clerk on SCOTUS. He also wasn't on LR and had only a 3.8 in UG at Hillsdale. The political selectivity gap is going to get huge.

[Anonymous User]

And that's a second one this term who graduated from UChicago without honors--outside of the top ~30% of the class--to clerk on SCOTUS. He also wasn't on LR and had only a 3.8 in UG at Hillsdale. The political selectivity gap is going to get huge.

It's interesting. And you're probably right about political selectivity. As someone with similar stats from a T6 and two clerkships (though obviously not SCOTUS), part of me welcomes this. Grades are good indicator of intelligence, work ethic, etc. But they are just proxies. There are plenty of highly intelligent people who for whatever reason didn't care that much to get 4.0s or be top of class or do things like law review because "that's what you do." (I didn't do law review because it seemed like a pure rat race and I chose to spend my time in other ways.) For many employers, not caring about those traditional markers of excellence will be a dealbreaker (understandably). Others may overlook those traditional shortcomings because the person is actually brilliant/insightful according to everyone who has worked with them or seen their work. FWIW, this Chicago clerk did win a brief writing excellence award.

IME and I'm sure many others have noticed, often there are really smart peers who hover around 3.7s in UG or decent, not great law school grades. Conversely, there are many 4.0s and magnas who aren't particularly smart, they just work hard and play the game. So it's nice to sometimes see people with no honors or non-sterling UG records rise to the top.

[Anonymous User]

And that's a second one this term who graduated from UChicago without honors--outside of the top ~30% of the class--to clerk on SCOTUS. He also wasn't on LR and had only a 3.8 in UG at Hillsdale. The political selectivity gap is going to get huge.

It's interesting. And you're probably right about political selectivity. As someone with similar stats from a T6 and two clerkships (though obviously not SCOTUS), part of me welcomes this. Grades are good indicator of intelligence, work ethic, etc. But they are just proxies. There are plenty of highly intelligent people who for whatever reason didn't care that much to get 4.0s or be top of class or do things like law review because "that's what you do." (I didn't do law review because it seemed like a pure rat race and I chose to spend my time in other ways.) For many employers, not caring about those traditional markers of excellence will be a dealbreaker (understandably). Others may overlook those traditional shortcomings because the person is actually brilliant/insightful according to everyone who has worked with them or seen their work. FWIW, this Chicago clerk did win a brief writing excellence award.

IME and I'm sure many others have noticed, often there are really smart peers who hover around 3.7s in UG or decent, not great law school grades. Conversely, there are many 4.0s and magnas who aren't particularly smart, they just work hard and play the game. So it's nice to sometimes see people with no honors or non-sterling UG records rise to the top.

I generally agree with this. The smartest person I know at my T6 has decent but not great grades. I have no doubt they would be an outstanding clerk. If Judges Jones and Rao called up Alito and said "hey, this guy was a terrific clerk" I can see why he would get hired even without the insane academic credentials we often see from SCOTUS clerks.

[Anonymous User]

A bunch more just came out from David Lat.

HLS --> Srinivasan/Boasberg --> Roberts
HLS --> Livingston/Friederich --> Roberts
YLS --> D. Motz --> Sotomayor (first recent feed?)
YLS --> Fletcher/K. Ellison --> Sotomayor (probably the first recent feed for Ellison)
SLS --> Sutton --> Gorsuch
HLS --> Collins/Millett --> Kavanaugh (first feed for Collins)
SLS --> Boasberg/Srinivasan --> Kavanaugh
GULC -->McFadden/Grant/Ambro --> Kavanaugh (another feed for McFadden and Grant, probably the first in a while for Ambro)
YLS --> Katsas/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
UVA --> Wilkinson/Friederich --> Kavanaugh
Chi --> T. Lee/Sutton --> Kennedy (I'm pretty sure this is Judge Nielson's kid, and they graduated without honors, so Kennedy getting clerkships for his buddies continues... Also a SSC feed.)

Other notes: Kavanaugh is hiring ridiculously far out, old habits die hard. Tons of feeds for DDC judges (Boasberg, Friederich, McFadden) and none from SDNY in this batch.

You also missed HLS --> Sutton --> Thomas

Add another UChicago —> E. Jones/Rao —> Alito too

And that's a second one this term who graduated from UChicago without honors--outside of the top ~30% of the class--to clerk on SCOTUS. He also wasn't on LR and had only a 3.8 in UG at Hillsdale. The political selectivity gap is going to get huge.

I wouldn't make so much of these hires. One of these two was the daughter of a prominent judge (himself a Kennedy clerk), and the other is an experienced lawyer with strong ties to the conservative legal establishment. I graduated from a H/Y/S school, and my year alone my school had two liberal SCOTUS clerks from outside the top 30%. (Both, unsurprisingly, were well-connected). The moral of the story: SCOTUS hiring, like life, is all about relationships.