Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

Yeah I agree with the identity politics point, hence why I don't think Heytens would get much consideration. Srinivasan is asian american, but not sure D's want to play to that demographic. Maybe Nathan?

Srinivasan is too old. Rikelman and Nathan would be contenders. Jackson-Akiwumi, Garcia, Bloomekatz, and Prelogar are too young, but maybe in ~4–8 years.

Should be Nathan. Not that it would be taken into account, but it would be a touch hypocritical to put Rikelman up for S.Ct. after teeing off on ACB for lacking judicial experience.

Garcia will get a nod in 8 years though.

Srinivasan is 57. Biden/Harris would need to get the nomination in the next 2 years for him to have a good shot.

For a 4~ year timeline, Kruger or Nathan would be my top bets.

For a 8~ year timeline, Garcia and Prelogar make sense to me.

Maybe I'm missing something, but what do people see in Rikelman?

[Anonymous User]

Prelogar is only a few years younger than Kruger, she could be nominated now. Assuming that Trump wins like it looks like, Nathan will be on the older side but still in the mix by 2028, and Garcia, Kruger, and Prelogar will probably be on the shortlist. Maybe an outside chance for a lower-profile Biden judge like H. Thomas, Freeman, Jackson-Ackiwumi, or Sanchez. Biden has nominated fewer conventional SCOTUS contenders than most presidents. Assuming Sotomayor is next to go, there will be pressure to replace her with a Hispanic judge, and Biden hasn't nominated many period, and none who look like shortlisters besides Garcia.

I expect Trump's shortlist if he gets a nom to be something like Thapar, Ho, Oldham, Grant, and my understanding is that in the Fed Soc world Thapar is considered the heavy favorite. Though maybe things will be less predictable if Trump really is fed up with Fed Soc.

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

Yeah I agree with the identity politics point, hence why I don't think Heytens would get much consideration. Srinivasan is asian american, but not sure D's want to play to that demographic. Maybe Nathan?

Srinivasan is too old. Rikelman and Nathan would be contenders. Jackson-Akiwumi, Garcia, Bloomekatz, and Prelogar are too young, but maybe in ~4–8 years.

Should be Nathan. Not that it would be taken into account, but it would be a touch hypocritical to put Rikelman up for S.Ct. after teeing off on ACB for lacking judicial experience.

Garcia will get a nod in 8 years though.

Srinivasan is 57. Biden/Harris would need to get the nomination in the next 2 years for him to have a good shot.

For a 4~ year timeline, Kruger or Nathan would be my top bets.

For a 8~ year timeline, Garcia and Prelogar make sense to me.

Maybe I'm missing something, but what do people see in Rikelman?

Even if a spot opened up today, Srinivasan would be too old.

[Anonymous User]

Prelogar is only a few years younger than Kruger, she could be nominated now. Assuming that Trump wins like it looks like, Nathan will be on the older side but still in the mix by 2028, and Garcia, Kruger, and Prelogar will probably be on the shortlist. Maybe an outside chance for a lower-profile Biden judge like H. Thomas, Freeman, Jackson-Ackiwumi, or Sanchez. Biden has nominated fewer conventional SCOTUS contenders than most presidents. Assuming Sotomayor is next to go, there will be pressure to replace her with a Hispanic judge, and Biden hasn't nominated many period, and none who look like shortlisters besides Garcia.

Agree with the bolded. Cynically, it's doubtful the emphasis will be on a Black woman after KBJ, and especially if Kamala wins.

Hard to say who it'd be if the next vacancy is Thomas.

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

Yeah I agree with the identity politics point, hence why I don't think Heytens would get much consideration. Srinivasan is asian american, but not sure D's want to play to that demographic. Maybe Nathan?

Srinivasan is too old. Rikelman and Nathan would be contenders. Jackson-Akiwumi, Garcia, Bloomekatz, and Prelogar are too young, but maybe in ~4–8 years.

Should be Nathan. Not that it would be taken into account, but it would be a touch hypocritical to put Rikelman up for S.Ct. after teeing off on ACB for lacking judicial experience.

Garcia will get a nod in 8 years though.

Srinivasan is 57. Biden/Harris would need to get the nomination in the next 2 years for him to have a good shot.

For a 4~ year timeline, Kruger or Nathan would be my top bets.

For a 8~ year timeline, Garcia and Prelogar make sense to me.

Maybe I'm missing something, but what do people see in Rikelman?

Just from personal experience, but I think Rikelman is a thoughtful judge. I don’t claim to know everything, but I think her reputation is at least good on the circuit. Couple that with most of her pre-judicial work being abortion advocacy and I would imagine she’s a solid progressive candidate. This assumes that a future D admin won’t just pick someone with a SCOTUS clerkship/whoever is a feeder, I guess (not a fan of that approach personally).

[Anonymous User]

I'm not trying to start a giant fight here but it's just sad that so much of this conversation ends up being about who is too old or young, who has the right identity characteristics, etc. and not actually the substantive qualities of the judges' work. Like, Srinivasan actually IS a minority and a POC but he just isn't the kind that evidently counts for diversity purposes, so I guess that's not enough.

Or, most liberal-minded people (myself included) would agree that it is important to promote black women in the system. But now that one has been named, it seems other black female judges might actually be DISadvantaged (especially with a black woman potentially in the White House). Like KBJ fills some kind of quota. It just seems so arbitrary.

I don't think the Republicans are innocent of this, but in a different way - not so much diversity, but who is the most reliable crusader for conservative causes instead of the substantive qualities of the judges. Nobody thinks Ho is such a great judge, he's just perceived as a right-wing firebrand. And they also often use race in an even worse way, i.e., the advocacy against Mangi more or less on the grounds of his religion, which is just disgusting.

As for age, an older judge might actually be a better choice than someone in their forties or fifties in a lot of ways if you assume that spending more time on the bench improves your work. I bet a lot of judges do their best work in their 60s. But both parties would be foolish to name someone that old when they could lock in a spot for much longer.

The process just seems to have broken down in ways that are damaging to the judiciary and the public's sense of its legitimacy.

[lavarman84]

I'm not trying to start a giant fight here but it's just sad that so much of this conversation ends up being about who is too old or young, who has the right identity characteristics, etc. and not actually the substantive qualities of the judges' work. Like, Srinivasan actually IS a minority and a POC but he just isn't the kind that evidently counts for diversity purposes, so I guess that's not enough.

Or, most liberal-minded people (myself included) would agree that it is important to promote black women in the system. But now that one has been named, it seems other black female judges might actually be DISadvantaged (especially with a black woman potentially in the White House). Like KBJ fills some kind of quota. It just seems so arbitrary.

I don't think the Republicans are innocent of this, but in a different way - not so much diversity, but who is the most reliable crusader for conservative causes instead of the substantive qualities of the judges. Nobody thinks Ho is such a great judge, he's just perceived as a right-wing firebrand. And they also often use race in an even worse way, i.e., the advocacy against Mangi more or less on the grounds of his religion, which is just disgusting.

As for age, an older judge might actually be a better choice than someone in their forties or fifties in a lot of ways if you assume that spending more time on the bench improves your work. I bet a lot of judges do their best work in their 60s. But both parties would be foolish to name someone that old when they could lock in a spot for much longer.

The process just seems to have broken down in ways that are damaging to the judiciary and the public's sense of its legitimacy.

Term limits could help with the age issue. But it's an inherently political process. This is all a result of that. If there's something I find disappointing, it's how many of the circuit judges and SCOTUS justices go their entire careers without representing real people (i.e., career corporate and/or government lawyers [excepting PDs]). I'm not saying we should never appoint attorneys with that background, but I am saying that when the judiciary is disproportionately comprised of those folks, it creates a lot of blind spots and results in a system that too often fails regular people.

[Anonymous User]

Prelogar is only a few years younger than Kruger, she could be nominated now. Assuming that Trump wins like it looks like, Nathan will be on the older side but still in the mix by 2028, and Garcia, Kruger, and Prelogar will probably be on the shortlist. Maybe an outside chance for a lower-profile Biden judge like H. Thomas, Freeman, Jackson-Ackiwumi, or Sanchez. Biden has nominated fewer conventional SCOTUS contenders than most presidents. Assuming Sotomayor is next to go, there will be pressure to replace her with a Hispanic judge, and Biden hasn't nominated many period, and none who look like shortlisters besides Garcia.

I expect Trump's shortlist if he gets a nom to be something like Thapar, Ho, Oldham, Grant, and my understanding is that in the Fed Soc world Thapar is considered the heavy favorite. Though maybe things will be less predictable if Trump really is fed up with Fed Soc.

I don't have any sort of crystal ball but I think the takes here look mostly right. I think Heytens is also credible from a dem though.

I think Bumatay also credible from the right. Purely for chaos reasons, it would be hysterical to see Trump put up Cannon.

[Anonymous User]

Prelogar is only a few years younger than Kruger, she could be nominated now. Assuming that Trump wins like it looks like, Nathan will be on the older side but still in the mix by 2028, and Garcia, Kruger, and Prelogar will probably be on the shortlist. Maybe an outside chance for a lower-profile Biden judge like H. Thomas, Freeman, Jackson-Ackiwumi, or Sanchez. Biden has nominated fewer conventional SCOTUS contenders than most presidents. Assuming Sotomayor is next to go, there will be pressure to replace her with a Hispanic judge, and Biden hasn't nominated many period, and none who look like shortlisters besides Garcia.

I expect Trump's shortlist if he gets a nom to be something like Thapar, Ho, Oldham, Grant, and my understanding is that in the Fed Soc world Thapar is considered the heavy favorite. Though maybe things will be less predictable if Trump really is fed up with Fed Soc.

I don't have any sort of crystal ball but I think the takes here look mostly right. I think Heytens is also credible from a dem though.

I think Bumatay also credible from the right. Purely for chaos reasons, it would be hysterical to see Trump put up Cannon.

Thapar might be getting a little old for a nomination. It would be interesting to see if a second-term Trump continued to defer to the FedSoc establishment for SCOTUS picks. I could see him shifting towards more MAGA oriented judges during his second term: Van Dyke, Kacsmaryk, Kyle Duncan, etc

[Anonymous User]

Prelogar is only a few years younger than Kruger, she could be nominated now. Assuming that Trump wins like it looks like, Nathan will be on the older side but still in the mix by 2028, and Garcia, Kruger, and Prelogar will probably be on the shortlist. Maybe an outside chance for a lower-profile Biden judge like H. Thomas, Freeman, Jackson-Ackiwumi, or Sanchez. Biden has nominated fewer conventional SCOTUS contenders than most presidents. Assuming Sotomayor is next to go, there will be pressure to replace her with a Hispanic judge, and Biden hasn't nominated many period, and none who look like shortlisters besides Garcia.

I expect Trump's shortlist if he gets a nom to be something like Thapar, Ho, Oldham, Grant, and my understanding is that in the Fed Soc world Thapar is considered the heavy favorite. Though maybe things will be less predictable if Trump really is fed up with Fed Soc.

I don't have any sort of crystal ball but I think the takes here look mostly right. I think Heytens is also credible from a dem though.

I think Bumatay also credible from the right. Purely for chaos reasons, it would be hysterical to see Trump put up Cannon.

Thapar might be getting a little old for a nomination. It would be interesting to see if a second-term Trump continued to defer to the FedSoc establishment for SCOTUS picks. I could see him shifting towards more MAGA oriented judges during his second term: Van Dyke, Kacsmaryk, Kyle Duncan, etc

If Trump wins, my read of FedSoc world is that Oldham would be the clear choice to replace a retiring Alito. The Thapar clerk network is working behind the scenes to try and push him as an option too. But Oldham is the clear favorite for the Alito seat as it stands. Anyone else hoping to make it to the Court would need to make it as a replacement for Thomas, and there's no guarantee that Thomas steps down even during a Trump presidency.

[Anonymous User]

I think a lot of this conversation is moot because it's very possible that a hypothetical Harris administration won't even be able to get a single District or COA judge, let alone a SCOTUS nominee passed through. R's will very clearly win the senate in the upcoming election, and the map in 2026 is unfriendly for D's as well. The discourse and polarization of our country is in a sad state, so expect little movement in our judicial system for the next 4 years as well.

[Anonymous User]

I think a lot of this conversation is moot because it's very possible that a hypothetical Harris administration won't even be able to get a single District or COA judge, let alone a SCOTUS nominee passed through. R's will very clearly win the senate in the upcoming election, and the map in 2026 is unfriendly for D's as well. The discourse and polarization of our country is in a sad state, so expect little movement in our judicial system for the next 4 years as well.

Disagree with this. I think a Harris admin will not be able to get through a single judge if they nominate like Biden did. However, they'll just shift the type of judge they nominate and particularly for district nominees will defer to home-state senator. I think the Rs would need 55 or 56 seat before they could just blanket block everyone. However, I am inclined to agree that no way any party will be able to get SCOTUS nominees in when the opposite party controls the senate by a single vote in the near future.

[Anonymous User]

I think a lot of this conversation is moot because it's very possible that a hypothetical Harris administration won't even be able to get a single District or COA judge, let alone a SCOTUS nominee passed through. R's will very clearly win the senate in the upcoming election, and the map in 2026 is unfriendly for D's as well. The discourse and polarization of our country is in a sad state, so expect little movement in our judicial system for the next 4 years as well.

Disagree with this. I think a Harris admin will not be able to get through a single judge if they nominate like Biden did. However, they'll just shift the type of judge they nominate and particularly for district nominees will defer to home-state senator. I think the Rs would need 55 or 56 seat before they could just blanket block everyone. However, I am inclined to agree that no way any party will be able to get SCOTUS nominees in when the opposite party controls the senate by a single vote in the near future.

The Rs just need a 51 seat majority, and then party leadership will dictate what happens even if there's somehow a home state senator willing to play ball. BTW - it's likely very likely Rs will get a 55 seat majority anyway.

[Anonymous User]

I think a lot of this conversation is moot because it's very possible that a hypothetical Harris administration won't even be able to get a single District or COA judge, let alone a SCOTUS nominee passed through. R's will very clearly win the senate in the upcoming election, and the map in 2026 is unfriendly for D's as well. The discourse and polarization of our country is in a sad state, so expect little movement in our judicial system for the next 4 years as well.

Disagree with this. I think a Harris admin will not be able to get through a single judge if they nominate like Biden did. However, they'll just shift the type of judge they nominate and particularly for district nominees will defer to home-state senator. I think the Rs would need 55 or 56 seat before they could just blanket block everyone. However, I am inclined to agree that no way any party will be able to get SCOTUS nominees in when the opposite party controls the senate by a single vote in the near future.

The Rs just need a 51 seat majority, and then party leadership will dictate what happens even if there's somehow a home state senator willing to play ball. BTW - it's likely very likely Rs will get a 55 seat majority anyway.

The map is tough for Democrats but the GOP “likely” picking up 55 seats strikes me as very optimistic. 51-52 seems more reasonable, especially with the presidential race tightening.

[Anonymous User]

I think a lot of this conversation is moot because it's very possible that a hypothetical Harris administration won't even be able to get a single District or COA judge, let alone a SCOTUS nominee passed through. R's will very clearly win the senate in the upcoming election, and the map in 2026 is unfriendly for D's as well. The discourse and polarization of our country is in a sad state, so expect little movement in our judicial system for the next 4 years as well.

Disagree with this. I think a Harris admin will not be able to get through a single judge if they nominate like Biden did. However, they'll just shift the type of judge they nominate and particularly for district nominees will defer to home-state senator. I think the Rs would need 55 or 56 seat before they could just blanket block everyone. However, I am inclined to agree that no way any party will be able to get SCOTUS nominees in when the opposite party controls the senate by a single vote in the near future.

The Rs just need a 51 seat majority, and then party leadership will dictate what happens even if there's somehow a home state senator willing to play ball. BTW - it's likely very likely Rs will get a 55 seat majority anyway.

This is hysterical.

[Anonymous User]

I think a lot of this conversation is moot because it's very possible that a hypothetical Harris administration won't even be able to get a single District or COA judge, let alone a SCOTUS nominee passed through. R's will very clearly win the senate in the upcoming election, and the map in 2026 is unfriendly for D's as well. The discourse and polarization of our country is in a sad state, so expect little movement in our judicial system for the next 4 years as well.

Disagree with this. I think a Harris admin will not be able to get through a single judge if they nominate like Biden did. However, they'll just shift the type of judge they nominate and particularly for district nominees will defer to home-state senator. I think the Rs would need 55 or 56 seat before they could just blanket block everyone. However, I am inclined to agree that no way any party will be able to get SCOTUS nominees in when the opposite party controls the senate by a single vote in the near future.

The Rs just need a 51 seat majority, and then party leadership will dictate what happens even if there's somehow a home state senator willing to play ball. BTW - it's likely very likely Rs will get a 55 seat majority anyway.

This is hysterical.

Agreed. A 55 seat majority is “very likely” only if you are delusional to think that every swing state with a Senate race will flip/go R, along with WV, MT, and OH. The fact that MT is competitive right now should throw cold water on that theory.

There is still a solid chance that Rs have a slim Senate majority after this election cycle.

[Anonymous User]

It is sort of surprising that the admin didn't rush to get a pick for the CA3 Delaware Jordan seat, especially with the Mangi hold-up. How hard could it be to pre-vet some Delaware candidates?

Anyway, and conceding I know absolutely nothing about the Delaware legal community: the easiest thing to do would be to promote a Delaware state or district court judge. Two Delaware Supreme members are quite young: LeGrow and Griffiths. And then there's Kathaleen McCormick and Lori Will on Chancery. Jennifer Hall on D. Del. is also in the sweet spot age-wise.

[Anonymous User]

It is sort of surprising that the admin didn't rush to get a pick for the CA3 Delaware Jordan seat, especially with the Mangi hold-up. How hard could it be to pre-vet some Delaware candidates?

Anyway, and conceding I know absolutely nothing about the Delaware legal community: the easiest thing to do would be to promote a Delaware state or district court judge. Two Delaware Supreme members are quite young: LeGrow and Griffiths. And then there's Kathaleen McCormick and Lori Will on Chancery. Jennifer Hall on D. Del. is also in the sweet spot age-wise.

You would think that Hall would be the best pick—a current DJ who was confirmed with bipartisan support, former Jordan clerk, and young/well-qualified. But it seems like Rs are content to run a full-court press for the remainder of Biden’s term on any circuit court nominee. Since there are a couple in the pipeline as is, I think it would take a lot to nominate/confirm any circuit court nominee without a lot of momentum.

[Anonymous User]

Now that Trump has won the election will Biden rush to try and confirm someone to the two open Third Circuit seats? Perhaps pull Mangi and put in a nominee they know they can get through to avoid the alternative of two new Trump appointees? The Third Circuit will skew fairly heavy conservative if they let that happen...

[Anonymous User]

Now that Biden has lost the election what are the odds he nominates someone quick to the open Third Circuit seat in Delaware? Or withdraws Mangi's nomination in favor of a possibly less controversial candidate? It would be a real shame if they let Trump fill both those seats

[Chokenhauer]

I doubt there would be enough time to shepherd a new nominee through the committee and floor for Jordan’s seat.

[Anonymous User]

Manchin and Sinema have refused to vote for any nominee all year who does not have Republican support. If Republicans are closing up shop on Biden nominees, the only way anyone gets confirmed is if one of them changes their mind.

[Chokenhauer]

Manchin and Sinema have refused to vote for any nominee all year who does not have Republican support. If Republicans are closing up shop on Biden nominees, the only way anyone gets confirmed is if one of them changes their mind.

Manchin voted for cloture on Ritz though, even though he didn’t get any Republican support. So he seems to flip flop on this, for whatever that’s worth.