Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum

[Anonymous User]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

[not2spicy4]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

I think Gregory is 69, not 73, so I wouldn't expect him to go senior anytime soon just based on age alone.

[Anonymous User]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

I think Gregory is 69, not 73, so I wouldn't expect him to go senior anytime soon just based on age alone.

That's right, he's born in 1953--so that would make him 72 in 2025 (the nearest year that could have a Republican president), not 73.

[not2spicy4]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

I think Gregory is 69, not 73, so I wouldn't expect him to go senior anytime soon just based on age alone.

That's right, he's born in 1953--so that would make him 72 in 2025 (the nearest year that could have a Republican president), not 73.

Ah ok I see why you were using 2025 as the reference point. Still, if he is hiring 4 clerks for 2025 (as his OSCAR post says), that presumably signals an intent not to go senior that year. And from what I've heard through the grapevine, he's not particularly ideological/political, so I guess what I mean to say is that I'm skeptical that he'd time his retirement based on how the election might shake out.

[Anonymous User]

Looks like Jeffrey Bryan of the Minnesota Court of Appeals will be nominated to D MN. He looks highly qualified.

https://www.startribune.com/judge-jeffr ... 600284976/

[Anonymous User]

any guesses who will be nominated to replace Stranch (assuming they get to it, which you'd think they'd want to)?

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

This administration has mostly tried to get Republican blue slips for circuit nominees even those aren’t necessary anymore (with the exception of Tennessee, likely because Blackburn was never going to return a blue slip for anyone), and I’m skeptical that the NC senators would sign off on Ryan Park. Looking at the recent red-state circuit nominees, a white guy with a prosecutor or military background seems more likely.

Of course, if NC senators are unreasonable and the WH gives up on trying to get blue slips, then maybe Park has a shot.

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

This administration has mostly tried to get Republican blue slips for circuit nominees even those aren’t necessary anymore (with the exception of Tennessee, likely because Blackburn was never going to return a blue slip for anyone), and I’m skeptical that the NC senators would sign off on Ryan Park. Looking at the recent red-state circuit nominees, a white guy with a prosecutor or military background seems more likely.

Of course, if NC senators are unreasonable and the WH gives up on trying to get blue slips, then maybe Park has a shot.

Yeah that’s another thing, plus Tillis has given some Biden nominees a fair shake and that’s something the White House rewards.

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

This administration has mostly tried to get Republican blue slips for circuit nominees even those aren’t necessary anymore (with the exception of Tennessee, likely because Blackburn was never going to return a blue slip for anyone), and I’m skeptical that the NC senators would sign off on Ryan Park. Looking at the recent red-state circuit nominees, a white guy with a prosecutor or military background seems more likely.

Of course, if NC senators are unreasonable and the WH gives up on trying to get blue slips, then maybe Park has a shot.

Yeah that’s another thing, plus Tillis has given some Biden nominees a fair shake and that’s something the White House rewards.

Park prediction ended up being spot on. Solid call.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone think that either of the D. Alaska vacancies will get a nomination within the next several months? Curious about this given the recent news of Judge Kindred's sudden resignation.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone think that either of the D. Alaska vacancies will get a nomination within the next several months? Curious about this given the recent news of Judge Kindred's sudden resignation.

Senator Sullivan is stalling out the process to pick/approve a nominee. My guess is both spots stay vacant until we have a Republican President.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone think that either of the D. Alaska vacancies will get a nomination within the next several months? Curious about this given the recent news of Judge Kindred's sudden resignation.

Senator Sullivan is stalling out the process to pick/approve a nominee. My guess is both spots stay vacant until we have a Republican President.

That's what I figured was happening, but was wondering if there might have been rumblings otherwise. Thanks for sharing.

[Anonymous User]

Any predictions on what will become of the CA03 seat Adeel Mangi is currently nominated to? Is he likely to be confirmed or replaced before the election?

[Anonymous User]

Any predictions on what will become of the CA03 seat Adeel Mangi is currently nominated to? Is he likely to be confirmed or replaced before the election?

I do not have any insider information, but I imagine that there is some kind of effort to move forward given that his nomination has yet to be pulled and the nominee has yet to withdraw

[Anonymous User]

Any predictions on what will become of the CA03 seat Adeel Mangi is currently nominated to? Is he likely to be confirmed or replaced before the election?

I do not have any insider information, but I imagine that there is some kind of effort to move forward given that his nomination has yet to be pulled and the nominee has yet to withdraw

There isn't any progress at the moment. The nomination is essentially stalled, but the administration doesn't want to withdraw it before the election as it could damage relations with Muslim groups. They plan to attempt pushing it through when Republican senators are absent (along with both Nevada Democrats and Joe Manchin & Sinema, so I have no idea why they believe this will work) or possibly try again after the election.

[Anonymous User]

Any predictions on what will become of the CA03 seat Adeel Mangi is currently nominated to? Is he likely to be confirmed or replaced before the election?

I do not have any insider information, but I imagine that there is some kind of effort to move forward given that his nomination has yet to be pulled and the nominee has yet to withdraw

There isn't any progress at the moment. The nomination is essentially stalled, but the administration doesn't want to withdraw it before the election as it could damage relations with Muslim groups. They plan to attempt pushing it through when Republican senators are absent (along with both Nevada Democrats and Joe Manchin & Sinema, so I have no idea why they believe this will work) or possibly try again after the election.

I haven’t come across any statements from Sinema indicating her opposition to Mangi. Maybe the Dems might try to get him through during the lame duck by applying pressure behind the scenes on Rosen/Cortez Masto to change their votes (or at least happen to be in Vegas when the vote occurs), even though I think the safer course of action is to withdraw him and pick a Muslim AUSA (or I guess Quraishi, though he seems pretty conservative from his background) if they’re concerned about the optics.

In any event, newly appointed judges mostly want to hire clerks who already have appellate experience anyways, so probably best for folks who want to clerk on a COA (or even CA3) to focus on other possibilities. I’m curious if the WH is going to try and fill the DE vacancy on CA3 as a result of Jordan’s retirement announcement.

[Anonymous User]

Any predictions on what will become of the CA03 seat Adeel Mangi is currently nominated to? Is he likely to be confirmed or replaced before the election?

I do not have any insider information, but I imagine that there is some kind of effort to move forward given that his nomination has yet to be pulled and the nominee has yet to withdraw

There isn't any progress at the moment. The nomination is essentially stalled, but the administration doesn't want to withdraw it before the election as it could damage relations with Muslim groups. They plan to attempt pushing it through when Republican senators are absent (along with both Nevada Democrats and Joe Manchin & Sinema, so I have no idea why they believe this will work) or possibly try again after the election.

I haven’t come across any statements from Sinema indicating her opposition to Mangi. Maybe the Dems might try to get him through during the lame duck by applying pressure behind the scenes on Rosen/Cortez Masto to change their votes (or at least happen to be in Vegas when the vote occurs), even though I think the safer course of action is to withdraw him and pick a Muslim AUSA (or I guess Quraishi, though he seems pretty conservative from his background) if they’re concerned about the optics.

In any event, newly appointed judges mostly want to hire clerks who already have appellate experience anyways, so probably best for folks who want to clerk on a COA (or even CA3) to focus on other possibilities. I’m curious if the WH is going to try and fill the DE vacancy on CA3 as a result of Jordan’s retirement announcement.

I’m an idiot for doing Senate-voting math, but it would be perplexing if Sinema voted for Mangi when she voted against Maldonado.

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

Kruger would have to be in the running, right?

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

Yeah I agree with the identity politics point, hence why I don't think Heytens would get much consideration. Srinivasan is asian american, but not sure D's want to play to that demographic. Maybe Nathan?

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

Yeah I agree with the identity politics point, hence why I don't think Heytens would get much consideration. Srinivasan is asian american, but not sure D's want to play to that demographic. Maybe Nathan?

Srinivasan is too old. Rikelman and Nathan would be contenders. Jackson-Akiwumi, Garcia, Bloomekatz, and Prelogar are too young, but maybe in ~4–8 years.

[Anonymous User]

If Biden or Harris were to get another SCOTUS nomination, who would you bet your money on? Besides Srinivasan, who else would be a contender?

It would be nice to see some COA judges beyond the DC Cir. Perhaps a fairly progressive judge like Rikelman or Jackson-Akiwumi. Heytens too, but I imagine identity politics would play a role in who would be selected.

Yeah I agree with the identity politics point, hence why I don't think Heytens would get much consideration. Srinivasan is asian american, but not sure D's want to play to that demographic. Maybe Nathan?

Srinivasan is too old. Rikelman and Nathan would be contenders. Jackson-Akiwumi, Garcia, Bloomekatz, and Prelogar are too young, but maybe in ~4–8 years.

Should be Nathan. Not that it would be taken into account, but it would be a touch hypocritical to put Rikelman up for S.Ct. after teeing off on ACB for lacking judicial experience.

Garcia will get a nod in 8 years though.