Trump Judicial Nominees? Forum

[Anonymous User]

Judge Kovner is meh. But for years there has been a poaster on this forum who acts like she’s the second coming of Learned Hand.

Judge K, is that you?

[Anonymous User]

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[Anonymous User]

Don’t forget the Federal Circuit. Newman is 96, Dyk is 87, and Lourie is 89. Odds are, they will pass away or develop serious health issues that they will have to vacate their seat.

The caveat with the Federal Circuit is that it will not be as glamorous or prestigious as the DC Circuit, but it’s nonetheless DC, and there is a smaller pool of qualified/interested candidates for Trump to choose from.

Fed Circuit is always a bit of a tough one to predict. If we're using the Trump cabinet nominations as a guideline, Albright will be first up for sure, but he's 64 -- on the older side, although idk how much that matters here. Gilstrap is also older and an Obama appointee. I would actually bet on Noreika getting a shot; she's been active on D. Del for 6 years now and is "only" 58. Connolly's only a couple years older and Chief, so he could get tapped too. If all three seats fell vacant, I'd predict (using nothing more than my gut) that only one will be an elevation.

[Anonymous User]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-we ... ial-judges

Anyone want to speculate on who will be picked to fill the vacancies on the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th? I could see Judge Walker in Maine elevated for the 1st. And Judge Vaden remains a dark horse for the 6th.

[Anonymous User]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-we ... ial-judges

Anyone want to speculate on who will be picked to fill the vacancies on the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th? I could see Judge Walker in Maine elevated for the 1st. And Judge Vaden remains a dark horse for the 6th.

Can someone help us understand how Schumer was able to get Kidd (11) through but not the other nominees? It seems to be a complicated mess of senate procedural rules but would love some clarity.

[Anonymous User]

I don't think it was complex procedure as much as it was iterative bargaining between Schumer, Sinema/Manchin, and McConnell. Whatever the sausage-making looked like, they ended up in a place where Sinema would vote for Embry Kidd in exchange for Schumer getting the D. Ariz. nominees over the finish line.

I don't know what Kidd had over Karla Campbell (6th) and Julia Lipez (1st) (it seemed like Ryan Park - 4th and Adeel Mangi -3rd didn't have 50 votes for confirmation no matter what). But Campbell and Lipez were collateral damage.

[Anonymous User]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-we ... ial-judges

Anyone want to speculate on who will be picked to fill the vacancies on the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th? I could see Judge Walker in Maine elevated for the 1st. And Judge Vaden remains a dark horse for the 6th.

I would expect Patrick Strawbridge for any Maine-based vacancy on the 1st, assuming he even wants to be a Judge

[Anonymous User]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-we ... ial-judges

Anyone want to speculate on who will be picked to fill the vacancies on the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th? I could see Judge Walker in Maine elevated for the 1st. And Judge Vaden remains a dark horse for the 6th.

I would expect Patrick Strawbridge for any Maine-based vacancy on the 1st, assuming he even wants to be a Judge

Original poster here, I agree. He would be great.

[Anonymous User]

I don't think it was complex procedure as much as it was iterative bargaining between Schumer, Sinema/Manchin, and McConnell. Whatever the sausage-making looked like, they ended up in a place where Sinema would vote for Embry Kidd in exchange for Schumer getting the D. Ariz. nominees over the finish line.

I don't know what Kidd had over Karla Campbell (6th) and Julia Lipez (1st) (it seemed like Ryan Park - 4th and Adeel Mangi -3rd didn't have 50 votes for confirmation no matter what). But Campbell and Lipez were collateral damage.

If you're a Dem, Lipez is clearly the one to sacrifice; not as much to lose on the 1st. As for Campbell, maybe Stranch will decide not to take senior, while Kidd wouldn't have? Who knows.

[Anonymous User]

Now that there are no blue slips for CoA noms, neither of those choices are NEARLY conservative enough for a 2d Cir. spot. Expect Trump to only put rock ribbed conservatives like Menashi on the 2d

Is anybody other than Livingston eligible (and likely to take) senior status? Sullivan's next, but still has a few years to go before age 65.

It would be a pity not to elevate Kovner. She's already a rockstar and having a reliable feeder rockstar on your appellate court is always a good thing.

Livingston will likely go senior in September 2027 when she’s done being chief. Many people could get that seat—Cronan and Kovner would be the obvious picks, but who knows. After that nobody is eligible until Sullivan in 2029.

[Anonymous User]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-we ... ial-judges

Anyone want to speculate on who will be picked to fill the vacancies on the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th? I could see Judge Walker in Maine elevated for the 1st. And Judge Vaden remains a dark horse for the 6th.

I think Cam Norris at Consovoy, who argued SFFA, is likely to get the Sixth Circuit seat. He’s seen as one of the top rising stars in the conservative legal movement and works out of Knoxville, TN. Adam Mortara, the uber-right wing uber-connected clerkships guy at Chicago, works out of Nashville now, but I’m not sure he’s confirmable. Crytzer in ED Tenn has Trump connections but I don’t get the sense that she’s considered all that exceptional.

[Anonymous User]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-we ... ial-judges

Anyone want to speculate on who will be picked to fill the vacancies on the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th? I could see Judge Walker in Maine elevated for the 1st. And Judge Vaden remains a dark horse for the 6th.

I think Cam Norris at Consovoy, who argued SFFA, is likely to get the Sixth Circuit seat. He’s seen as one of the top rising stars in the conservative legal movement and works out of Knoxville, TN. Adam Mortara, the uber-right wing uber-connected clerkships guy at Chicago, works out of Nashville now, but I’m not sure he’s confirmable. Crytzer in ED Tenn has Trump connections but I don’t get the sense that she’s considered all that exceptional.

Other names to watch for in Tennessee are Whitney Hermandorfer, Sarah Campbell, and Sarah Harris

[Anonymous User]

Cam is great, but I’d put money on Justice Sarah Campbell of SCTN getting the Sixth Circuit seat if Judge Stranch doesn’t withdraw her senior status announcement.

[Anonymous User]

Cam is great, but I’d put money on Justice Sarah Campbell of SCTN getting the Sixth Circuit seat if Judge Stranch doesn’t withdraw her senior status announcement.

Matt Rice would also be in the running, I would imagine!

[Quichelorraine]

Greenaway's CA3 seat is obviously going to Alina Habba at this rate, right?

[Anonymous User]

Do we think more judges who were set to go senior upon Biden appointing a replacement will withdraw their intents to take senior status? Now apparently Cogburn (W.D.N.C.) is no longer taking senior status, like Marbley (S.D. Ohio). McConnell is complaining about it.

[Anonymous User]

Do we think more judges who were set to go senior upon Biden appointing a replacement will withdraw their intents to take senior status? Now apparently Cogburn (W.D.N.C.) is no longer taking senior status, like Marbley (S.D. Ohio). McConnell is complaining about it.

I would be surprised if Stranch and Wynn don’t join them. They’re pretty liberal.

[Anonymous User]

Not sure about Hermandorfer or Rice. There are quite a few folks in Skrmetti's orbit, but I just don't think they'd get the pick. Plus, there are still a lot of old timers who have *some sway in TN.

I imagine it'll be either Sarah Campbell or Vaden if someone from TN that isn't an older timer is gonna take it. Skrmetti might trump them, but not sure if he wants the job.

[Anonymous User]

Can someone explain to me why Vaden is seen as a legitimate candidate for CA6?

[Anonymous User]

I mean, these are always guesses. And you never know who is a friend of someone else. My read is Vaden has been a loyalist, possibly has the right connections and has the qualifications.

[Anonymous User]

https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/221 ... -secretary

Looks like my Vaden pick was wrong. Oh well. I was at least correct in thinking that he’d get something from Trump this term.

[Lifesonalex]

Donny will appoint, in this order, to scotus:

Teddy Cruz
Dr Thomas Sowell
Ben Shapiro
Chelsea Clinton
Chelsea Handler
Amy Carter

[Jefferson9921]

I'm expecting a lot of young, well-credentialed state SGs to get COA nods, or at least be under serious consideration:
-Matt Rice (for CA6); SG of TN
-Stephen Petrany (for CA11); SG of GA
-Henry Whitaker (for CA11); SG of FL

Then there are conservative movement attorneys currently in private practice:
-Cam Norris (for CA6)
-Patrick Strawbridge (for CA1...could use some flavor there)

I'm surely missing a few people there.

And then there's a batch of high-powered, mostly female district judges who could be up for promotions:
-Martha Pacold (for CA7)
-Kathryn Mizelle (for CA11)
-Sarah Pitlyk (for CA8)
-Rachel Kovner (for CA2)

Also could add Carl Nichols (for CADC) and Trevor McFadden (for CADC) to the above list. And from state supreme courts, Evan Young of SCOTX seems like a no-brainer should a vacancy arise on CA5.

[Anonymous User]

I'm expecting a lot of young, well-credentialed state SGs to get COA nods, or at least be under serious consideration:
-Matt Rice (for CA6); SG of TN
-Stephen Petrany (for CA11); SG of GA
-Henry Whitaker (for CA11); SG of FL

Then there are conservative movement attorneys currently in private practice:
-Cam Norris (for CA6)
-Patrick Strawbridge (for CA1...could use some flavor there)

I'm surely missing a few people there.

And then there's a batch of high-powered, mostly female district judges who could be up for promotions:
-Martha Pacold (for CA7)
-Kathryn Mizelle (for CA11)
-Sarah Pitlyk (for CA8)
-Rachel Kovner (for CA2)

Also could add Carl Nichols (for CADC) and Trevor McFadden (for CADC) to the above list. And from state supreme courts, Evan Young of SCOTX seems like a no-brainer should a vacancy arise on CA5.

Not if they get other appointments first…seems like Whitaker is heading back to the DOJ.

[Jefferson9921]

I'm expecting a lot of young, well-credentialed state SGs to get COA nods, or at least be under serious consideration:
-Matt Rice (for CA6); SG of TN
-Stephen Petrany (for CA11); SG of GA
-Henry Whitaker (for CA11); SG of FL

Then there are conservative movement attorneys currently in private practice:
-Cam Norris (for CA6)
-Patrick Strawbridge (for CA1...could use some flavor there)

I'm surely missing a few people there.

And then there's a batch of high-powered, mostly female district judges who could be up for promotions:
-Martha Pacold (for CA7)
-Kathryn Mizelle (for CA11)
-Sarah Pitlyk (for CA8)
-Rachel Kovner (for CA2)

Also could add Carl Nichols (for CADC) and Trevor McFadden (for CADC) to the above list. And from state supreme courts, Evan Young of SCOTX seems like a no-brainer should a vacancy arise on CA5.

Not if they get other appointments first…seems like Whitaker is heading back to the DOJ.

Ah, I see now that he's likely headed back to OLC as AAG.