What Are My Chances? Forum

[clshopeful]

strng

[lavarman84]

0% until you have two semesters worth of law school grades.

[CanadianWolf]

I believe that Chicago will consider transfer applications with just one semester of law school grades.

[Hutz_and_Goodman]

Apply to Chicago if you want to transfer. You will need to pay sticker wherever you go. I think you would have a decent chance.

[Longtimecoming19]

How do you know your GPA with such precision? If you are a normal 1L, you should have none of your grades until late December or January at the earliest. Did you complete one or two semesters of law school, then go on leave? Unless this is your situation, it is pointless to speculate about transferring now, as you have no grades in yet.

[lavarman84]

I believe that Chicago will consider transfer applications with just one semester of law school grades.

True. You're right. But I don't know if the OP even has that. I might be misunderstanding but I think his top 5% "ranking" is based on his scholarship not actual grades. I'm not sure how one would have 1L grades in October. But I could be wrong.

[CanadianWolf]

The OP showed a 3.79 GPA which doesn't make sense. Maybe it's OPs undergraduate GPA ?

[barkschool]

we've come to the decision that nothing but 1L grades matter right?

[Longtimecoming19]

we've come to the decision that nothing but 1L grades matter right?

No, but they seem to absolutely dwarf everything else in importance, by a lot

[lavarman84]

we've come to the decision that nothing but 1L grades matter right?

Nah. But they're the most important thing.

[Nebby]

Top 5% will likely get you into either NYU or CLS.

[soj]

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[clshopeful]

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[lavarman84]

Hi all, sorry for confusion. I did my 1L, then took time off for family reasons; now looking to transfer. So, yes, the GPA/rank stated is correct and real.

Then you have a shot at both NYU and Columbia. Can't speak to chances. Hard to quantify. It seemed a tad random last year for CLS. I'm assuming you'll have to explain taking time off...don't know what that will do to your chances.

[Longtimecoming19]

Hi all, sorry for confusion. I did my 1L, then took time off for family reasons; now looking to transfer. So, yes, the GPA/rank stated is correct and real.

Ah, well, in that case, you have a strong enough chance that it would be crazy to not apply. I can't say you're automatically in, but your odds are not shabby.

[Traynor Brah]

You're likely not getting uchi. If you ed it could happen, maybe, but no chance regular cycle.

[NoDayButToday]

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[lavarman84]

I think you have a great shot at NYU/Columbia. Also think it's worth going for HYS and Chicago.

Numerically, not the best odds for HYS, but you never know! My numbers didn't spell N-Y-U, but I'm here. You 1L GPA's way higher than mine was. Go for the very top.

Also, note that Harvard Law Review competition is at the same time as with the 1Ls, so if you do apply for H, make sure to keep an eye on that if you're interested in LR. NYU's comp is in August for all the journals. Don't know about the other T6s. This is way ahead of now, but just flagging it.

He or she would need a miracle to get into HYS.

[NoDayButToday]

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[lavarman84]

I think you have a great shot at NYU/Columbia. Also think it's worth going for HYS and Chicago.

Numerically, not the best odds for HYS, but you never know! My numbers didn't spell N-Y-U, but I'm here. You 1L GPA's way higher than mine was. Go for the very top.

Also, note that Harvard Law Review competition is at the same time as with the 1Ls, so if you do apply for H, make sure to keep an eye on that if you're interested in LR. NYU's comp is in August for all the journals. Don't know about the other T6s. This is way ahead of now, but just flagging it.

He or she would need a miracle to get into HYS.

I don't think a miracle--crazier things have happened. It's not likely, but it's possible. Yale's 2014 mid-range started at 3.77. Harvard's started at 3.83. Stanford's at 3.85. This person is not far from their mid-ranges. Far from their medians, perhaps, but if you're close and you have something specific in your softs they're looking for you, never know. I think it's close enough to merit going for it.

I think the biggest impediment is actually OP's school's ranking. But in 2014, Harvard also took a transfer from Seattle University. Stanford took someone from Santa Clara which ranked maybe in the 90s? Again, unlikely, with the combo of 25th percentile and T2 school...but I say worth the attempt. Worst they can say is no thanks.

Look, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade. But from what I recall, Seattle U is a TTT? The only person I remember Harvard accepting outside of Tier 1 in 2015 was #1 or #2 at a Tier 2 school. Harvard rejected a number of people in the top 5% at T1 and T2 schools. In fact, I don't know if they accepted anyone at a school outside of the top 30 or so law schools that wasn't first or second in their class. They might have. I just can't think of anyone.

And Harvard is less picky than Stanford and Yale. I think Stanford gives Cali people a bump. But outside of Cali, it's very tough. Unless he/she has an extraordinary resume, I'd bet against a student in the top 5% at any law school outside of the top 25 schools getting into Stanford...much less top 5% at a TTT.

Yale is even worse than Stanford. As I recall, they rejected the poster that was top 1% at Columbia. It's tough to tell who Yale accepts but it seems like almost all of their transfers are from t14 schools.

I could certainly be wrong. But realistically, unless the OP has something ridiculously awesome on their resume, they're not getting HYS. They'd need to be #1 or #2 in their class...and even then, it's not guaranteed. I'm not saying don't apply. If the OP has the money, go for it. I'm just saying that it's an extreme long shot at best.

EDIT: Here's the list from the 2015 cycle based on self-reporting in the TLS Harvard Transfer Thread:

So here's the list I've got now, hopefully it'll help people in the future:
Accepted (all on 7/9)
1. dma1012 - ~11:50 am; top 2-3% at a t20
2. Mamba1991 - 11:30 am; top 2% at a T2 (3.99 GPA)
3. sd795822 - ~2:30 pm; top 5% at a t14
4. le6f - ~1:30 pm; top 5% at a t14
5. Booyahachieved - ~2:00 pm; top 3% at a t20
6. thepriceis - ~2:30 pm; top 3% at a t20-30
7. georgej - ~3:30 pm; top 5% at a t20
8. jeanshortsjorts - ~3:50 pm; top 10% at a t20
9. Hudsonbayco - ~3:30 pm; ????
10. miwichbr - ~4:00 pm; top 2% at a t30
11. starchild - ~4:00 pm; top 1% at a t50-60
12. theonerd - ~3:00 pm; top 15% at a t20 (was waitlisted at H when applying for law school admission)
13. Goldie - ~1:00 pm; #1 at a t30-35
14. Msdx92 - ?????; top 10% at a t20
15. townehall - ~4:30 pm; top 2% at a T1
16. shopgirl - 3:11 pm; #1 at a T2 (closer to 100 than 50)
17. FLS - ~12:00 pm; top 1% at t30-39
18. pandare - ~11:00 am; #1 at t20-50
19. DaysToGo - ????; top 10-15% at t20
20. elimccrain - ~1:00 pm; #1 at t30
21. Vonella - ~2:30 pm; #1 at t50-60

Dinged
1. Paragon - Top 6% at t20-25
2. AT9 - Top 5% at t30-40
3. lawman84 - Top 1% at t40-50
4. lawstudent212 - Top 5% at t60-70
5. butlerraider1 - #1 at TTT
6. sportstatboy - Top 10% at T1
7. felinafelina - Top 10-15% at t20
8. Got30 - Top 5% at t20
9. NoDayButToday - Top 20% at t30-40

[NoDayButToday]

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[juzam_djinn]

Eh, inferring anything from self-reporters on TLS is hit or miss. Pretty sure none of the four 2015 Harvard transfer admits from my 1L school (BC, a T40) reported their acceptances on TLS. Mayyybeee one of them posted, but that person's previous posts made it unclear. I could never confirm one way or the other whether it was a BC person. I do know for a fact that one of those four was not #1 or #2 in our 1L class--in fact, I'm fairly certain one of them was not top 5%.

We'll have to see the ABA 509 Standard Information Forms in January(?) for our transfer classes to know for certain what this past summer looked like. I don't think TLS's transfer info is especially reliable, though. The percentile-ranges generally assumed to be required on TLS for admission to certain schools don't entirely line up with the data on the 509s. And as you point out, some people whose numbers suggest auto-admit don't get in. I agree that transfer admissions are heavily driven by 1L performance and school ranking...but there's very little information that schools are required to disclose publicly about their transfer admissions. Consequently, I suspect they exercise more case-by-case discretion than those of us on TLS tend to believe.

Anyway, OP asked about NYU and Columbia, for which I think s/he has an excellent chance of admission. I posted about HYS because I didn't want him/her to rule them out as possibilities if interested, because I don't believe it's an "extreme" long shot. I would put it at "more likely than not" wouldn't get in to HYS, but I think this person's numbers are close enough not to self-select out of those options, if interested and financially able to pay application fees.

There's a slight regional boost to transfer admissions for H, just as there is for S. For S we've seen Hastings/Davis type folks get in w/ top 5% and even top 10% type grades, as opposed to the usual top1% it would take from t50 type schools. It's similar for H w/ BU and BC

I'm pretty surprised there were 4 from BC in 2015 though. Did they all end up going?

And as for offering guesses...top 5% at a TTT is worth an app, but I think "more likely than not" it will be rejected is being pretty kind...it's a REAL long shot. the reason it's worth the app is b/c if you actually got in after "only" being top 5% at a TTT, it would be a real coup and a huge boost to your resume where it's a no-brainer to go. It'd be worth it to apply so long as you have like...a >1% chance of admission...

[NoDayButToday]

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[Goldie]

For what it's worth, Harvard took 55 transfers this cycle. Up from 33(?) last year.

[clshopeful]

definitely appreciate all the commentary, but to get back to the main question, I'm looking at NYU/CLS, not HYS. Also, I've been thinking of UCLA, which has very attainable numbers for me. Top 75% was a 3.70 the 2015 509 says, so I think I have a solid shot there. Definitely want to work in Seattle, and I think UCLA has a strong national recognition. NYU/CLS would be great also, just to get into biglaw right out of school, then hopefully move westward.