Official Transfer What Are My Chances Thread Forum

[thexfactor]

....

[slayerbtvs]

.

[thexfactor]

LOL
NYU- IN
Columbia- IN
Harvard-IN
Yale-IN
Unless your school does some MAJOR grade inflation, you are in everywhere.

I'll guess yours if you guess mine...I am also really bored:

20-25 School; 4.07 GPA

NYU
Columbia
Harvard
Yale

[traydeuce]

Not so fast, Yale could reject him.

[slayerbtvs]

that's my thought as well...the real question on my mind is - is it worth it to transfer?

I don't know how to weigh law review and top of class against going to Harvard or Yale (I think it's easier to stay at my school if I am choosing between my school and NYU/Columbia...am I right???)

[transplantedbuckeye]

that's my thought as well...the real question on my mind is - is it worth it to transfer?

I don't know how to weigh law review and top of class against going to Harvard or Yale (I think it's easier to stay at my school if I am choosing between my school and NYU/Columbia...am I right???)

I would agree with that. Harvard or Yale is probably a no-brainer (at least for me). Otherwise, law review, scholarships, cost, etc. would play a big part in weighing whether I would give up being in the top few people at a top 25 school.

[slayerbtvs]

I hope that I get lucky enough to have such a choice...but I still have no idea what I will/should decide...

seems like you too have a strong shot everywhere you applied...no reaches really

[arstech]

I don't know how to weigh law review and top of class against going to Harvard or Yale (I think it's easier to stay at my school if I am choosing between my school and NYU/Columbia...am I right???)

I wouldn't ponder it to death until you know what your options are. I'm not saying that you don't have a good chance, but I think that the transferapps database paints a misleadingly optimistic picture.

That being said, I would take Columbia and NYU over a T25. The effects of law review peter out pretty quickly, but your alma mater sticks like herpes.

[traydeuce]

^^ There are only so many people at t25s with 4.0 GPAs. If, as has been discussed in other threads, Harvard really admits 60 or more transfers (they took 40 last year, Yale took 15, as did Stanford, so, assuming a lot of cross-acceptance at the top, a minimum of 60 seems probable) you'd tend to think they'd take most such applicants.

[arstech]

^^ I think that's quite possible. But you have to worry about HYS valuing students with, say, a 3.8 from Penn over students with a 4.0 from a T25. And if you accept that premise, then there could easily be 60 more desirable applicants.

Really, it's impossible to know without better data. My point was just that he or she should hold off fretting for a week or two until it is known for sure

[traydeuce]

On second thought I think you're right. If you look at the numbers, there's a surprising amount of movement within the t14 and HYS acceptances probably account for the bulk of it. If you do the numbers, there just isn't a ton of room at HYS for sub-t14 applicants.

[arstech]

I think your original theory is equally likely, though.

Holy crap, is this a debate on the internet that ended amicably?

[traydeuce]

Let's compromise and give him 50/50 odds.

[slayerbtvs]

All I get is 50/50 - damn

[thexfactor]

damn that guy hijacked my thread lol

[arstech]

damn that guy hijacked my thread lol

The debate is still relevant to you, though. The question just changes to whether a T50 10-12% with reg softs is better or worse than a T14 15-20% with reg softs.

And the answer is: who knows.

[traydeuce]

^^ I'm going with worse.

[D.Wilde]

I'll guess yours if you guess mine...I am also really bored:

20-25 School; 4.07 GPA

NYU
Columbia
Harvard
Yale

Pretty much exact same situation here. 20-25 School; 4.04 GPA; #1 in section. Only applied to Harvard. According to transferapps, it seems like a significant number of people with numbers lower than these made it in last year... Do you (i.e. The Great and Mighty TLS) think it's really only a 50/50?

Also, nice username Slayer.

[traydeuce]

^^ It's impossible to tell. My only point is this: 69 people in the 4-14 range transferred last year. 70 people transferred into HYS. Supposing Harvard admitted all of YS's admits, they took 70 people. I think it's fair to assume that a hefty majority of the 69 t14 transfers left for HYS; doesn't make a lot of sense to hop from Georgetown to Columbia if you're doing well enough at Georgetown to make that move. I'm sure some people did it, but how many? Probably not very many. Moreover, 60 people in the 15-20 range transferred too. Therefore, it just seems like there aren't many spots at Harvard for people below #20. Obviously it happens, but it may well be the case that most of those cases are reported on transferapps, and that we shouldn't be extrapolating from the one guy with numbers like yours who gets in to an imaginary group of many others who aren't compulsively posting their information online. Finally, a Stanford transfer has a thread here, and he says that of the 15 transfers last year, 12 were from Texas and up.

[A'nold]

Hijack #2:

t3, top 14%, much higher section rank, but we won't go there again.

Mich
Berk
Duke-out already
GULC- pt and ft. deferred EA
UCLA
Vandy
WUSTL
Minn.
Emory
ND
Irvine
UW-Seattle
Hastings

[arstech]

I agree with traydeuce's analysis.

I suspect that transferapps is likely biased towards success stories. People who get into HYS presumably want to brag about it, whereas people who get dinged want to purge it from their memory.

[thexfactor]

wow ok il chime in.
Mich- out
Berk- see ya
Duke-out already
GULC- pt and ft. deferred EA- adios.. but i wish you were auto admit for my sake...
UCLA- no
Vandy- no
WUSTL- WL/IN
Minn.- WL
Emory-WL/IN
ND-WL
Irvine- no
UW-Seattle-no cuz they take 3 transfers per year
Hastings- in

Hijack #2:

t3, top 14%, much higher section rank, but we won't go there again.

Mich
Berk
Duke-out already
GULC- pt and ft. deferred EA
UCLA
Vandy
WUSTL
Minn.
Emory
ND
Irvine
UW-Seattle
Hastings

[D.Wilde]

I agree with traydeuce's analysis.

I suspect that transferapps is likely biased towards success stories. People who get into HYS presumably want to brag about it, whereas people who get dinged want to purge it from their memory.

Right, but it would seem that if there are 3 students who were accepted to Harvard from a given school last year with < 4.0s (thus allowing them to brag about it on transferapps), that would provide at least some support (albeit not dispositive support) to the theory that a student with > 4.0 from that same school has a greater than 50% chance of admission.

That being said, it's of course possible that each of these 3-5 students had magnificent softs which allowed them to ascend into transfer-admission deities, or some other explanation...

[pocket herc]

A'nold, I bet you have a decent shot at WUSTL, it is not very difficult to transfer into, surprisingly easy really. Also, Emory is a real possibility. And Hastings as well. Now chill the f%$! out. You'll be alright.

[traydeuce]

3 students from a given school is one thing... but maybe, like you say, they really liked those 3, as opposed to applicants from that school in general. I mean, do you think there are certain t25 schools they favor as a general matter, such that how they treated applicants from that school last year is especially predictive of how they'll treat them this year?