Unpredictable transfer cycle Forum

[Client8]

Gtown EA, Chicago ED - that's all I read about in this thread, which is great, as in, good info, but it further dilutes credibility of historical data i.e. transferapps, TLS posts, LSN. Therefore, lets throw some more questions at this:

1. Heard Gtown (and everyone else) is going to scale back on transfer apps because incoming classes will be huge w/r/t the increase in # of ppl taking the LSAT this year. Regular annual increase is approx. 1k (e.g. 2007 there was approx 49k, and in 2008 there were approx. 50k). From 08 to 09, get ready for this, 10k increase!

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2. AND....of course, more importantly, are you applying to Gtown EA/Chicago ED? If so, with what stats?

[vanwinkle]

The # of LSAT takers has exactly 0 correlation with how many seats an incoming class at a T14 is. If there are more LSAT takers and more applicants, that just means they'll have to reject more people to maintain the same class size. More applicants and more rejections means they'll get to cherry-pick even more than they have in the past, so the likely scenario is that they take the same number of students but end up with a class that has better stats (GPA and LSAT) than prior classes.

This is what appears to be happening across the T14 right now. There are trends in this cycle that indicate several schools are being more selective or changing their methodology compared to past behavior. None of these schools are trying to rapidly increase their class size as a result of this, as that would in fact hurt their USNWR rankings (student/faculty ratio is part of the equation, and without sudden unexpected hirings of additional faculty, taking extra students would raise this ratio and hurt the school).

Now, what will hurt transfers, if it happens, would be a greater number of transfer apps at T14 schools allowing them to be far more selective in transfer admissions as well. With the economy the way it is and people striking out even at T1 schools, it's likely that more people with even adequate grades will take a shot at transferring up and trying to escape the bloodbath at their current school. However, most schools will likely try to maintain the same number of transfer seats as they've had in prior cycles, again to maintain their student/faculty ratio. I expect that this, not the increased number of LSAT takers, will be what harms transfers this cycle the most.

[digitalcntrl]

The # of LSAT takers has exactly 0 correlation with how many seats an incoming class at a T14 is. If there are more LSAT takers and more applicants, that just means they'll have to reject more people to maintain the same class size. More applicants and more rejections means they'll get to cherry-pick even more than they have in the past, so the likely scenario is that they take the same number of students but end up with a class that has better stats (GPA and LSAT) than prior classes.

This is what appears to be happening across the T14 right now. There are trends in this cycle that indicate several schools are being more selective or changing their methodology compared to past behavior. None of these schools are trying to rapidly increase their class size as a result of this, as that would in fact hurt their USNWR rankings (student/faculty ratio is part of the equation, and without sudden unexpected hirings of additional faculty, taking extra students would raise this ratio and hurt the school).

Now, what will hurt transfers, if it happens, would be a greater number of transfer apps at T14 schools allowing them to be far more selective in transfer admissions as well. With the economy the way it is and people striking out even at T1 schools, it's likely that more people with even adequate grades will take a shot at transferring up and trying to escape the bloodbath at their current school. However, most schools will likely try to maintain the same number of transfer seats as they've had in prior cycles, again to maintain their student/faculty ratio. I expect that this, not the increased number of LSAT takers, will be what harms transfers this cycle the most.

It is not just the transfers. The current 1L class is huge, so there is little incentive to add even more peeps come their 2l year.

[vanwinkle]

It is not just the transfers. The current 1L class is huge, so there is little incentive to add even more peeps come their 2l year.

This statement makes no sense whatsoever. I can't even figure out what your point is. Are you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Either way you're doing it badly.

[digitalcntrl]

It is not just the transfers. The current 1L class is huge, so there is little incentive to add even more peeps come their 2l year.

This statement makes no sense whatsoever. I can't even figure out what your point is. Are you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Either way you're doing it badly.

Seems pretty obvious. Your answer is incomplete and technically incorrect. You state that LSAT test takers are not relevant here. That is correct if you are talking about 0Ls who would not compete with 1Ls who want to transfer. However, you do not count current 1Ls. The current 1L class is huge. My former school that I transferred from traditionally accepted 300 students a year. In 2009 they let in 500 students. I seriously doubt any school with such a massive class size is keen on letting even more people into the class of 2012.

[apper123]

It is not just the transfers. The current 1L class is huge, so there is little incentive to add even more peeps come their 2l year.

This statement makes no sense whatsoever. I can't even figure out what your point is. Are you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Either way you're doing it badly.

Seems pretty obvious. Your answer is incomplete and technically incorrect. You state that LSAT test takers are not relevant here. That is correct if you are talking about 0Ls who would not compete with 1Ls who want to transfer. However, you do not count current 1Ls. The current 1L class is huge. My former school that I transferred from traditionally accepted 300 students a year. In 2009 they let in 500 students. I seriously doubt any school with such a massive class size is keen on letting even more people into the class of 2012.

Do you have any other evidence of a larger 1L class nation-wide other than your school (a ridiculously small sample size)? Serious question. Are these #s available? NALP maybe?

I mean, my school has a significantly smaller 1L class this year than previous years... I'm not going to draw conclusions on the rest of the nation from that.

[slider]

It is not just the transfers. The current 1L class is huge, so there is little incentive to add even more peeps come their 2l year.

This statement makes no sense whatsoever. I can't even figure out what your point is. Are you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Either way you're doing it badly.

Seems pretty obvious. Your answer is incomplete and technically incorrect. You state that LSAT test takers are not relevant here. That is correct if you are talking about 0Ls who would not compete with 1Ls who want to transfer. However, you do not count current 1Ls. The current 1L class is huge. My former school that I transferred from traditionally accepted 300 students a year. In 2009 they let in 500 students. I seriously doubt any school with such a massive class size is keen on letting even more people into the class of 2012.

Do you have any other evidence of a larger 1L class nation-wide other than your school (a ridiculously small sample size)? Serious question. Are these #s available? NALP maybe?



I mean, my school has a significantly smaller 1L class this year than previous years... I'm not going to draw conclusions on the rest of the nation from that.

Possible LSAT question: It can be inferred from the passage that "digitalcntrl" and "vanwinkle" disagree about ___?

Possible Answer: (b) Increase in applicants will lead to a 1L class size increase both in and out of the T14.

[apper123]

Possible LSAT question: It can be inferred from the passage that "digitalcntrl" and "vanwinkle" disagree about ___?

Possible Answer: (b) Increase in applicants will lead to a 1L class size increase both in and out of the T14.

I appreciate the practice question! But I have to tell you I already took the LSAT.

Anyways, back to what I was asking about: is there any data available as to the size of 1L classes (or the average size) and fluctuations year to year?

[kings84_wr]

I have no stats on increases class size, I know my school maybe increased by 10 or 15 people but we have relatively small classes as it is.

But it just seems to make more sense for schools to take more transfers rather then increase first year classes. Then the school gets extra tuition, doesn't have to worry about lsat and gpa dragging them down, and has students that are at the top of their respective schools with high gpa's.

[digitalcntrl]

Possible LSAT question: It can be inferred from the passage that "digitalcntrl" and "vanwinkle" disagree about ___?

Possible Answer: (b) Increase in applicants will lead to a 1L class size increase both in and out of the T14.

I appreciate the practice question! But I have to tell you I already took the LSAT.

Anyways, back to what I was asking about: is there any data available as to the size of 1L classes (or the average size) and fluctuations year to year?

That the numbers of applicants and class sizes have increased is not exactly a hidden secret in this recessionary period. And no my experiences don't come from a single sample, there are 5 law schools within a 10 mile radius of where I live and they all have had large increases in class size.

See the following vid, especially at 1:07:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalw ... rrals.html

[vanwinkle]

Seems pretty obvious. Your answer is incomplete and technically incorrect. You state that LSAT test takers are not relevant here. That is correct if you are talking about 0Ls who would not compete with 1Ls who want to transfer. However, you do not count current 1Ls. The current 1L class is huge. My former school that I transferred from traditionally accepted 300 students a year. In 2009 they let in 500 students. I seriously doubt any school with such a massive class size is keen on letting even more people into the class of 2012.

The T25 schools (that is, the schools worth transferring to) keep their class sizes consistent from year to year. There is no way a T25 school increased their incoming class size by 200 students, it would massively torpedo their USNWR rankings.

I explained this earlier already, one factor in USNWR rankings is student/faculty ratio, and a sudden increase in class size would raise the student/faculty ratio to a painfully high number and cause the school to fall in the rankings. The only way to compensate for this would've been a sudden hiring spree of new professors to compensate, creating not one but two highly unusual events: A massively larger class size than usual and a sudden law professor hiring spree. Both of these would have been significant enough events to be mentioned on TLS or ATL or some law-related website. They have not.

My answer is complete and correct because it assumes T25 schools maintain a consistent incoming class size every year, which they traditionally do and which there is no evidence whatsoever that they have suddenly broken away from. Thus the transfer cycle, at least for those transferring up to the T25, should not be affected by the increased number of applicants.

The school you transferred from really has no bearing on this because I honestly don't care about what effects there are on low-ranked schools. TTT schools can increase their class size to their heart's desire and not care, since they'll stay TTT regardless, but they're also someone I would never recommend anyone transfer to.

[vanwinkle]

Anyways, back to what I was asking about: is there any data available as to the size of 1L classes (or the average size) and fluctuations year to year?

UVA typically admits 360 1Ls a year. For the Class of 2012 they admitted 368. This year they are doing everything they can to maintain their 360 number, including aiming for a target of ~350 and then filling in the gap off the WL this summer. It's very important to these top-ranked schools to not suddenly increase their class size because of how doing so negatively impacts their USNWR ranking. They could drop a spot or two if they admitted another section's worth of students (going up to about 390-400).

This is despite the massive increase in applications received. For the C/O 2012 their applications were up 20% over prior years, and this year for the C/O 2013 their applications are up an additional 10% over the 2012 apps. Yet they're still trying to maintain the same class size. Instead of admitting more 1Ls, they're just admitting 1Ls with better stats and boosting their medians, which helps them move up in the rankings (or at least hold ground where they are).

[vanwinkle]

That the numbers of applicants and class sizes have increased is not exactly a hidden secret in this recessionary period. And no my experiences don't come from a single sample, there are 5 law schools within a 10 mile radius of where I live and they all have had large increases in class size.

See the following vid, especially at 1:07:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalw ... rrals.html

You're distorting what's being reported there. There is no description of a "large increase in class size" in that entire video.

This is talking about compensating for overenrolling, where more people than expected commit to attend and the university takes steps to get the number back down to its target class size. The University of Miami had this problem and started offering deferrals with scholarship $$$ to these students to shrink their class size back down to normal. By deferring those students to next year they were able to get their class size back down to their original target size again.

If anything this emphasizes how important schools consider it to maintain a consistent class size. Miami was offering money to students to not attend in order to keep their class size from growing.

But look at what I just described with regard to UVA in the post above. UVA ended up slightly overenrolling because more people matriculated there than anticipated... but it was still only a slight gain. 20% increase in applicants, from less than 6,000 to more than 8,000, and their class size ended up only 8 seats larger than normal. They've still got space to take 15-20 transfers and have about the same 2L class as they traditionally do. The top-tier law schools are managing their class sizes rather closely and avoiding the "large growth in class sizes" you're referring to.

[OperaSoprano]

Anyways, back to what I was asking about: is there any data available as to the size of 1L classes (or the average size) and fluctuations year to year?

UVA typically admits 360 1Ls a year. For the Class of 2012 they admitted 368. This year they are doing everything they can to maintain their 360 number, including aiming for a target of ~350 and then filling in the gap off the WL this summer. It's very important to these top-ranked schools to not suddenly increase their class size because of how doing so negatively impacts their USNWR ranking. They could drop a spot or two if they admitted another section's worth of students (going up to about 390-400).

This is despite the massive increase in applications received. For the C/O 2012 their applications were up 20% over prior years, and this year for the C/O 2013 their applications are up an additional 10% over the 2012 apps. Yet they're still trying to maintain the same class size. Instead of admitting more 1Ls, they're just admitting 1Ls with better stats and boosting their medians, which helps them move up in the rankings (or at least hold ground where they are).

Vanwinkle is correct. It's already happening at my school. Fordham has no more room to add additional seats (seriously, we are overcrowded as it is, which is why our new building will be kick ass when it's finished). Last year 15 people transferred out, and 31 came in. The remarkable thing, however, was the jump in stats for entering students (evident in the PT program our year, and visible across the board now.) Fordham would never have waitlisted people in the 165/3.6 range, and a 160 with a high GPA and interesting work experience used to have a much better shot at PT admission. For the latter situation, we can blame the new rankings methodology to some degree, but there is no denying the spike in applications. Most new admits at my school stand at least a chance of getting Cornell, if their numbers haven't gone through the roof as well.

Again, I can't see Fordham increasing 1L class size. Where would all those people go? Assuming I'll always have a few classmates looking wistfully uptown or downtown, we should have room for a few come transfer time. I believe the increase in students who know about/ attempt to transfer should offset any nominal increase in class size at peer schools up through the lower T14 (and even at T10s, where leaving for HYS might become more common.) This is mostly speculation based upon what I've seen at my own school, conversations with friends at other schools, and my time on TLS. Furthermore, schools than can afford to take bigger transfer classes will probably do so. More revenue for them, without having to risk any LSAT/GPA hit, provided they can keep up with faculty hires and classroom space.

[digitalcntrl]

Seems pretty obvious. Your answer is incomplete and technically incorrect. You state that LSAT test takers are not relevant here. That is correct if you are talking about 0Ls who would not compete with 1Ls who want to transfer. However, you do not count current 1Ls. The current 1L class is huge. My former school that I transferred from traditionally accepted 300 students a year. In 2009 they let in 500 students. I seriously doubt any school with such a massive class size is keen on letting even more people into the class of 2012.

The T25 schools (that is, the schools worth transferring to) keep their class sizes consistent from year to year. There is no way a T25 school increased their incoming class size by 200 students, it would massively torpedo their USNWR rankings.

I explained this earlier already, one factor in USNWR rankings is student/faculty ratio, and a sudden increase in class size would raise the student/faculty ratio to a painfully high number and cause the school to fall in the rankings. The only way to compensate for this would've been a sudden hiring spree of new professors to compensate, creating not one but two highly unusual events: A massively larger class size than usual and a sudden law professor hiring spree. Both of these would have been significant enough events to be mentioned on TLS or ATL or some law-related website. They have not.

My answer is complete and correct because it assumes T25 schools maintain a consistent incoming class size every year, which they traditionally do and which there is no evidence whatsoever that they have suddenly broken away from. Thus the transfer cycle, at least for those transferring up to the T25, should not be affected by the increased number of applicants.

The school you transferred from really has no bearing on this because I honestly don't care about what effects there are on low-ranked schools. TTT schools can increase their class size to their heart's desire and not care, since they'll stay TTT regardless, but they're also someone I would never recommend anyone transfer to.

That presumes that everyone looking here can transfer to a T14. The post is not restricted to T14s or even T25s for that matter. My previous college may be nothing compared to my current one but it is still a T1 and I am sure their are loads of peeps out there in T2/T3/T4 land who would benefit from an increased ranking.

As for reference to limiting class size in T25s I will assume it is correct as I don't have the time to look at every T25 class profile. As you have noted, with a high number of test takers, a college can cherry pick the best candidates. But that in it self would affect people's transfer chances. Why settle for the typical transfer GPA/rank from a TTT when you already have better quality?

[digitalcntrl]

That the numbers of applicants and class sizes have increased is not exactly a hidden secret in this recessionary period. And no my experiences don't come from a single sample, there are 5 law schools within a 10 mile radius of where I live and they all have had large increases in class size.

See the following vid, especially at 1:07:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalw ... rrals.html

You're distorting what's being reported there. There is no description of a "large increase in class size" in that entire video.

This is talking about compensating for overenrolling, where more people than expected commit to attend and the university takes steps to get the number back down to its target class size. The University of Miami had this problem and started offering deferrals with scholarship $$$ to these students to shrink their class size back down to normal. By deferring those students to next year they were able to get their class size back down to their original target size again.

If anything this emphasizes how important schools consider it to maintain a consistent class size. Miami was offering money to students to not attend in order to keep their class size from growing.

But look at what I just described with regard to UVA in the post above. UVA ended up slightly overenrolling because more people matriculated there than anticipated... but it was still only a slight gain. 20% increase in applicants, from less than 6,000 to more than 8,000, and their class size ended up only 8 seats larger than normal. They've still got space to take 15-20 transfers and have about the same 2L class as they traditionally do. The top-tier law schools are managing their class sizes rather closely and avoiding the "large growth in class sizes" you're referring to.

At 1:07 and other spots they talk about an unusually high number of applicants accepting admissions and overenrolling in general which is the same as saying large class sizes. U of Miami is the exception not the rule in applying the deferral method. The host specifically asked Mystal whether U of Miami was the canary in the coal mine to with regards to the deferral method. Mystal said no saying most schools welcome large classes because law students are cash cows.

As for UVA, remember accepting transfers is not mandatory. If the 2009 entering class at UVA and other schools was of high quality because of high numbers of LSAT takers, why would UVA settle for your typical transfer from yesteryear?

[rayiner]

To add to the class size debate --- the class size at the T14 has been remarkably static for years now. NU last increased their class size (by 40) in 2002. With the AJD program, they cut the transfer class/2-yr international JD/etc to maintain the class size increase to +5.

[vanwinkle]

As for reference to limiting class size in T25s I will assume it is correct as I don't have the time to look at every T25 class profile. As you have noted, with a high number of test takers, a college can cherry pick the best candidates. But that in it self would affect people's transfer chances. Why settle for the typical transfer GPA/rank from a TTT when you already have better quality?

As for UVA, remember accepting transfers is not mandatory. If the 2009 entering class at UVA and other schools was of high quality because of high numbers of LSAT takers, why would UVA settle for your typical transfer from yesteryear?

Because while LSAT and GPA can both predict par passage, neither can do so as accurately as law school grades. Taking on transfers allows them to take students who are almost 100% likely to pass the bar upon graduation without those students' LSAT and GPA, no matter how low, affect their USNWR rankings. It's a way of getting more students with high success potential for free, as long as they continue to save room to take them, which they will continue to do so for that reason.

As I mentioned before, it's possible that transfers will be unpredictable because of the economy, but not because 1L class sizes will be bigger; it would be because more people at lower-ranked schools apply to transfer up, allowing UVA to be more selective about the transfers it takes than it usually is. However, this is entirely dependent on the number and quality of transfer applicants, and has absolutely nothing at all to do with the GPA/LSAT scores of entering applicants.

At 1:07 and other spots they talk about an unusually high number of applicants accepting admissions and overenrolling in general which is the same as saying large class sizes. U of Miami is the exception not the rule in applying the deferral method. The host specifically asked Mystal whether U of Miami was the canary in the coal mine to with regards to the deferral method. Mystal said no saying most schools welcome large classes because law students are cash cows.

But as mentioned, increasing a class size affects USNWR ranking. Schools attempt to maintain their ranking, as Miami has done by offering scholarships with deferrals. It's likely that Miami had to do so because they were radically too generous with the number of acceptances they offered and had to take action to compensate; other schools probably were less affected. There is really no other evidence out there that any top-ranked schools actually ended up taking on significantly more 1Ls than usual this past cycle. Miami is probably the exception and not the rule because they probably overenrolled much more badly than other schools this cycle. Inferring that every school overenrolled significantly this much and Miami is the only school to respond by deferring admitted students from this is bad logic.

The only schools that are going to let this happen are going to be lower-ranked schools that a person should likely not consider transferring to anyway. Transferring up comes at a price, the loss of your GPA and all the benefits that it had at your old school, and a person should only transfer if the benefits of that outweigh the loss. A school that doesn't care about its ranking is either going to be at the bottom of the T2 or in the TTT, and those are not schools worth going to. You'd be better staying where you are, getting some scholarship money not to transfer, being on your school's law review, and making the most of that.

[digitalcntrl]

Because while LSAT and GPA can both predict par passage, neither can do so as accurately as law school grades. Taking on transfers allows them to take students who are almost 100% likely to pass the bar upon graduation without those students' LSAT and GPA, no matter how low, affect their USNWR rankings. It's a way of getting more students with high success potential for free, as long as they continue to save room to take them, which they will continue to do so for that reason.

As I mentioned before, it's possible that transfers will be unpredictable because of the economy, but not because 1L class sizes will be bigger; it would be because more people at lower-ranked schools apply to transfer up, allowing UVA to be more selective about the transfers it takes than it usually is. However, this is entirely dependent on the number and quality of transfer applicants, and has absolutely nothing at all to do with the GPA/LSAT scores of entering applicants.[\quote]

But as mentioned, increasing a class size affects USNWR ranking. Schools attempt to maintain their ranking, as Miami has done by offering scholarships with deferrals. It's likely that Miami had to do so because they were radically too generous with the number of acceptances they offered and had to take action to compensate; other schools probably were less affected. There is really no other evidence out there that any top-ranked schools actually ended up taking on significantly more 1Ls than usual this past cycle. Miami is probably the exception and not the rule because they probably overenrolled much more badly than other schools this cycle. Inferring that every school overenrolled significantly this much and Miami is the only school to respond by deferring admitted students from this is bad logic.

The only schools that are going to let this happen are going to be lower-ranked schools that a person should likely not consider transferring to anyway. Transferring up comes at a price, the loss of your GPA and all the benefits that it had at your old school, and a person should only transfer if the benefits of that outweigh the loss. A school that doesn't care about its ranking is either going to be at the bottom of the T2 or in the TTT, and those are not schools worth going to. You'd be better staying where you are, getting some scholarship money not to transfer, being on your school's law review, and making the most of that.

So if we accept what you say that top ranked schools will maintain their class size but have better quality and lower ranked schools (that are not worth transferring to) will have larger class sizes due to the large number of test takers/better LSATS etc., the result would be no different. If I were a transfer applicant who is attending a lower ranked school, would I not face increased competition from the increased number of law students at other low ranked schools even if the proportion of students who wish to transfer remains the same from previous years?

[vanwinkle]

So if we accept what you say that top ranked schools will maintain their class size but have better quality and lower ranked schools (that are not worth transferring to) will have larger class sizes due to the large number of test takers/better LSATS etc., the result would be no different. If I were a transfer applicant who is attending a lower ranked school, would I not face increased competition from the increased number of law students at other low ranked schools even if the proportion of students who wish to transfer remains the same from previous years?

This is a pretty good argument, kudos. That could generate some increased competition for folks at those lower-ranked schools trying to transfer up. However, I would expect this increased competition to only be in the T3/T4 schools that care a lot less about rankings movement, since those are the schools that are likely to let their class sizes balloon like this.

That means the increased competition will be focused in the T3/T4 range, where bigger classes means more students above a certain % threshold and potentially qualified to transfer up. With schools in the T2 and lower T1 trying to keep their class sizes constant those students should face the same number of students with transfer-worthy numbers as prior years. So whether this will affect you or not depends on the school you go to and what tier it's in.

[chitown825]

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