It's of course true that it all comes out of PPP, but I'm just saying the decrease in PPP might be more intense for firms whose associates bill less during boom time. Think about it this way. Suppose associates break even at 600 billable hours. Moving from 2000-->1600 means profitable hours drop from 1400-->1000, or 33% (midpoint method: 400/1200=33%). Whereas, if you move from 2300-->1900, that's 1900-->1500, or 23.5% (midpoint method: 400/1700). The percentage drop in PPP would be higher (so avoiding layoffs would be more costly), for the firm with lower-hour associates. There's also just a sense that 1600 hours on average means many associates don't have enough work for a full-time job. That's not really true if it's 1900.Wanderingdrock wrote: ↑Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:54 pmUnless you've got crazy leverage, most of the hours difference will shake out in the PPP, though, no? End of the day, they're doing layoffs to preserve whatever their PPP is, with the assumption being that the firm going from 2000 to 1600 has a lower PPP to begin with than the firm going 2300 to 1900.
You could just say "they should just take less in PPP," but the pain would be more for some firms than others, which is a reason to think they'll do more intense layoffs.
Also, the fact that PPP is lower to begin with cuts both ways. True, it means you lose PPP less in absolute terms, but it also means you have less leeway before rainmakers leave for a better offer. If Cooley dropped to, like, $3M PPP, I think they'd lose partners.