How would a war between US and Russia impact biglaw employment? Forum

[BrowsingTLS]

Major news outlets are reporting Russia declaring war against Ukraine and the U.S. response.

https://www.cnn.com/
https://nypost.com/
https://www.nytimes.com/

[Bramwell]

I had assumed that the remaining firms (DPW included) that had been mum on salary raises were doing so because of growing uncertainty of geopolitical impacts on the economy, so was surprised when DPW raised salaries this week as Russia was about to invade Ukraine.

[transferquestiontls]

I had assumed that the remaining firms (DPW included) that had been mum on salary raises were doing so because of growing uncertainty of geopolitical impacts on the economy, so was surprised when DPW raised salaries this week as Russia was about to invade Ukraine.

This is exactly what I was thinking, too.

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

salary increases are material commitments to future retention and growth and it’s hard to be bullish in an environment of Dow hitting correction territory and oil over $100/barrel. I certainly would not just assume that the market of 2021 will just repeat in 2022.

[Anonymous User]

I was supposed to give notice this week to leave for the inhouse job I've always wanted. Figures that the biggest armed conflict of my lifetime would breakout this week....

[Anonymous User]

salary increases are material commitments to future retention and growth and it’s hard to be bullish in an environment of Dow hitting correction territory and oil over $100/barrel. I certainly would not just assume that the market of 2021 will just repeat in 2022.

2022 market is looking more like 2020 market, with the K shape recovery. If that turns out to be true, maybe 2023 market would look more like 2021 market.

[Prudent_Jurist]

There will be an immediate dearth of junior associates due to the draft.

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

Hopefully you aren't a junior at a v10, because I have reliable resources that have told me partners have already signed up to second junior associates to be meat shields.

[Joachim2017]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

Hopefully you aren't a junior at a v10, because I have reliable resources that have told me partners have already signed up to second junior associates to be meat shields.

Might as well get some use out of them, right?

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

Hopefully you aren't a junior at a v10, because I have reliable resources that have told me partners have already signed up to second junior associates to be meat shields.

Can confirm, many of the more conservative biglaw firms have standing agreements with the Department of Defense to provide junior associates to act as extra manpower in the event of a war, like a combat secondment, so long as DoD is willing to pay their rates. Typically there are provisions buried in the associate employment agreements at those firms making acceptance of such a combat secondment mandatory. You might ask the partners who you are closest with if they would ask the firm about a potential secondment to the U.S. Coast Guard for you in the event of a war, though even then you might get deployed to the Black Sea.

[Definitely Not North]

*OP refreshing TLS for news of associate layoffs while nuclear winter chokes out the sun*

[Definitely Not North]

combat secondment

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

Here I am, sitting at my computer on a Thursday afternoon, reading some NYTimes updates on Ukraine, and the sudden thought came to me - "I bet people on TLS have some terrible, parochial, self-interested takes on this war". Very pleased.

[Anonymous User]

Yesterday someone at my firm actually wondered aloud if the inevitable sanctions evasions and war crimes might generate business for the firm. Amazing.

[Anonymous User]

A war between who and who now?

Serious answer to the right question: the main impact is financial sanctions. How it ripples into the economy at large is an unknown. So long as there's a lot of work to do, lateral hiring will be hot. If there's uncertainty or a negative market impact, there will be less hiring or even layoffs.


But let's not get carried away. The US is not going to be on a war footing. Business will continue as usual.

Do you mean that there won't be any U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine? If so, your analysis is incredibly premature.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

Here I am, sitting at my computer on a Thursday afternoon, reading some NYTimes updates on Ukraine, and the sudden thought came to me - "I bet people on TLS have some terrible, parochial, self-interested takes on this war". Very pleased.

I'm more than okay with serving, but I would like to have some control over branch at least. I don't see that as "terrible, parochial, [and] self interested." It's not like I'm anti-war or noping out to Canada like some hippie.

[BrowsingTLS]

*OP refreshing TLS for news of associate layoffs while nuclear winter chokes out the sun*

Guilty.

Yeah, as someone in the draftable range I'm low-key trying to figure out when the best time to apply for officer training is. We're not at that stage yet, but if this shit escalates I'd ideally like to avoid being front-line infantry.

Here I am, sitting at my computer on a Thursday afternoon, reading some NYTimes updates on Ukraine, and the sudden thought came to me - "I bet people on TLS have some terrible, parochial, self-interested takes on this war". Very pleased.

I'm more than okay with serving, but I would like to have some control over branch at least. I don't see that as "terrible, parochial, [and] self interested." It's not like I'm anti-war or noping out to Canada like some hippie.

It's okay to be self-interested. Here I am wondering what a war could mean for my job security, rather than trying to rally you all to donate to a future without wars and guns.

My days as an idealist are over.

[glitched]

If I knew, I'd be rich.

[Anonymous User]

Yesterday someone at my firm actually wondered aloud if the inevitable sanctions evasions and war crimes might generate business for the firm. Amazing.

I've seen LinkedIn posts from partners who are at firms who are retained by Russian oligarchs/ corporations with ties to Russia that were clearly designed to drum up business related to impending sanctions. Shit like "if sanctions do happen, how will they affect you!" But obviously in big law speak.

[Anonymous User]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/russias ... tions.html

[Anonymous User]

One of my clients generally has a handful of deals in Russia (I'm staffed on two)...we were told pens down today.

[Anonymous User]

One of my clients generally has a handful of deals in Russia (I'm staffed on two)...we were told pens down today.

Could this be the final blow for Baker Botts and their, um, weird, Russian energy practice?

Think Perkins should be fine, as I didn't see anything in the sanctions regarding russian hookers peeing on their clients.

[Anonymous User]

Well at least one employment opportunity is probably coming soon, because I absolutely cannot focus while constantly refreshing the news and my billables are taking a major hit.